AFC Playoffs: Who gets the 6th seed

[TXsteeler]

11 hours ago, AFlaccoSeagulls said:

Looks like a new poll option needs to be added for Pittsburgh

Not even kidding.

We have @Raiders, Patriots, @Saints, Bengals. Probably going 2-2 unless we screw up or find a way to ascend. We could legit go 0-4 or 4-0 down this stretch. But 2-2 puts us at 9-6-1.

Ravens have @Chiefs, Bucs, @Chargers, Browns. Probably go 2-2 but could go 1-3 or 3-1. If they somehow get a tie and end up tied with the Steelers then the Steelers take it due to division record as the best they can reach is 3-3 with a win over the browns. The Steelers can at worst be 3-2-1.

I honestly think the Steelers lose to the Saints and Patriots and finish 9-6-1 and the Ravens lose to the Chiefs and win out to finish 10-6.

 

[FinSting]

17 minutes ago, TXsteeler said:

I honestly think the Steelers lose to the Saints and Patriots and finish 9-6-1 and the Ravens lose to the Chiefs and win out to finish 10-6.

 

Yah I'm guessing it will be both Steelers and Ravens in the playoffs. Ravens defense completely throttled the Falcons yesterday, that was a very impressive road win for Baltimore (held Atlanta's offense to only 3 pts til late in the 4th quarter when the game was basically over anyway)

[theJ]

1 hour ago, TXsteeler said:

I honestly think the Steelers lose to the Saints and Patriots and finish 9-6-1 and the Ravens lose to the Chiefs and win out to finish 10-6.

 

Ravens also have the Chargers on the road.  That will be tough too.  Winnable, but tough.

I also don't think we should discount the fact that Lamar Jackson is going to have some trouble at some point.  I don't think losses to the Bucs or Browns are out of the question.

[TXsteeler]

10 minutes ago, theJ said:

Ravens also have the Chargers on the road.  That will be tough too.  Winnable, but tough.

I also don't think we should discount the fact that Lamar Jackson is going to have some trouble at some point.  I don't think losses to the Bucs or Browns are out of the question.

I think both teams could potentially go anywhere from 0-4 to 4-0 down the stretch, but I just think the Ravens are more likely to go 3-1 than the steelers, and I honestly feel like the Steelers could go 1-3 fairly easily, with that 1 win being over the Saints too.

The Steelers are the kings of under performing this decade, at least in the AFC.

[Broncofan]

30 minutes ago, theJ said:

Ravens also have the Chargers on the road.  That will be tough too.  Winnable, but tough.

I also don't think we should discount the fact that Lamar Jackson is going to have some trouble at some point.  I don't think losses to the Bucs or Browns are out of the question.

I say this as someone who took a while, but come Draft Day, felt it was definitely worth taking Lamar in late Rd1 as a developmental QB, and still believe his chances of working out are excellent. 

But he's definitely going to hit an adjustment phase.  The only Q is when.   OAK, CIN (especially with no Vigil then and Lawson/Brown on IR, and their banged up secondary) and ATL (although it helped to get Deion Jones back, they're decimated with their injuries) aren't exactly a gauntlet of D's to face.

The same 3-game stretch Baker Mayfield enjoyed against bottom-8 pass D's had everyone ready to crown him as the next elite QB.  He's still got a bright future, but a road test against a good D like HOU showed the issues that remain (just as we shouldn't get too high when SSS success occurs, no need to get too low, either, when they struggle).   The same no doubt will happen to Lamar - I don't think KC will pose that test, however.    The HFA and noise at Arrowhead could induce mistakes, but that's a bad, bad D he's facing. Worse, they can't really stop the run, which he and Edwards/co. can exploit mercilessly.   

If the Chargers had Liuget & Perryman, for sure I'd see them as the test.  Outside of CLE's D, I do think the schedule is pretty soft for Lamar (issues more being on the road for KC/LAC).   As it is, I do think TAM, LAC & CLE are all games they could lose.   That D is good enough provided their pass rush holds up, though, it could still get them to 3-1 pretty easily.  There just won't be any gimme games for sure.

[Mastercheddaar]

Hmmm:

Lets assume Cleveland, Cinci, Miami are done. They either have too many losses and/or have too difficult of a schedule left.

So here they are in order:

1 - Not listed: Denver has at SF and Oak with home games vs Cleveland and LAC. They also could easily go 4-0 during this stretch and finish 10-6 because LAC will more than likely have the 5th spot locked down.  

2 - Tennessee has at NYG with home games vs Jax, Indy, and DC. Out of the teams you listed I think they control their own destiny the most. They could easily go 4-0 and finish 10-6. 

3 - Indy has at Houston and at Tenn with home games vs Dallas and NYG. They would need to go 3-1 and finish 9-7 if they want to make IMO. 

4 - Baltimore has away games at KC and at LAC with home games vs TBay and Cleveland. Realistically they could go 2-2 and finish 9-7. However they have getting thin at QB with Flacco and Lamar being banged up. KC will need to win this to keep the chargers from taking the division and the chargers will need to win their game to lock up the 5th spot. 

I also think Cleveland plays spoiler too... 

Go Birds!

mastercheddaar

[Here'sJim]

I have edited the poll to add the Broncos.

Trying to reset poll, let's see if I can...

 

Edit: Nope, poll is broken....

Edit: New poll added. Though hosted elsewhere.

[wackywabbit]

A lot of people think the Chargers may have nothing to play for in week 17 because they will be locked into the 5 seed. But, if that's the case then they probably lost again to the Chiefs and are already locked into that by week 16 against the Ravens too.

[game3525]

1 hour ago, wackywabbit said:

A lot of people think the Chargers may have nothing to play for in week 17 because they will be locked into the 5 seed. But, if that's the case then they probably lost again to the Chiefs and are already locked into that by week 16 against the Ravens too.

I don't think they would be locked into the 5th seed with a loss to KC. 

They need to be at least 11-5 to be locked into the 5th seed IMO. A loss to KC would put them at 10-4 (assuming they beat Cincy next week). So they still should have something to play for in week 16. 

[wackywabbit]

9 minutes ago, game3525 said:

I don't think would be locked into the 5th seed with a loss to KC. 

They need to be at least 11-5 to be locked into the 5th seed IMO. A loss to KC would put them at 10-4 (assuming they beat Cincy next week). So they still should have something to play for in week 16. 

It's not guaranteed, it depends on what happens week 14 and 15, but it's definitely possible that they are locked into a wild card spot. I doubt they would pass up a week of rest for the difference between a 5 and 6 seed; historically teams have not done that. 

[game3525]

6 minutes ago, wackywabbit said:

It's not guaranteed, it depends on what happens week 14 and 15, but it's definitely possible that they are locked into a wild card spot. I doubt they would pass up a week of rest for the difference between a 5 and 6 seed; historically teams have not done that. 

I don't know.

Giving a team two weeks off seems fairly risky. 

[TheKillerNacho]

At this point, probably the Ravens.

[BayRaider]

31 minutes ago, TheKillerNacho said:

At this point, probably the Ravens.

Lamar Jackson wins the SB.

[Habbsawce]

I think Denver could win out and finish 10-6. What's the tie break looking like for them and Ravens?

[BayRaider]

Just now, Habbsawce said:

I think Denver could win out and finish 10-6. What's the tie break looking like for them and Ravens?

Don’t get why everyone thinks Denver will win out. I think their schedule is actually pretty tough. @Oak and @SF, I think they will split these and get upset in one. vs LA and vs Cle, same thing here. I think these will both be “pick em” games and they will win one and lose. I really see them finishing 8-8 one way or the other.