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2019 NFL QB Draft Prospects


BaldyBronco

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Not necessarily in here, but I’ve read some concerns on Daniel Jones accuracy as he was at 60% while at Duke.

According to pro football focus, Jones adjusted completion percentage was 74% for comparison last year Baker Mayfields adjusted completion percentage was 80%.  Obviously 6% is a big difference, but we all know Mayfield and that system has players open all game long.  Jones didn’t have that luxury, he’s a very accurate passer.

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7 minutes ago, BroncoBruin said:

I felt very confident all along that he would end up playing football. Kyler's the only QB beyond Haskins that would excite me. Stud. 

Elway wouldn't draft him though. Need a 6'5" stiff who throws grounders all over the field. 

Idk he signed Case who is undersized and liked to run around.  I think if we could trade back and then back up too make two first round selections muched liked the 2010 year when we got Tebow and Thomas. This year a combo like Murray/ bpa at like oline or corner. That would go a long way towards helping this offense.

Or on the otherhand maybe this causes Jones to fall late first.  Him and bpa at corner or line would really help. At the very least this qb class doesn't look terrible now.

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The cat among the pigeons -

Kyler Murray is rumoured to be declaring for the draft -

https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2019/1/10/18176559/kyler-murray-nfl-draft-decision-report

And

two months ago Kliff Kingsbury said he would take Murray as the No.1 pick if he had the option - guess what - he has the option.

How about the Cards draft Murray and the Broncos trade a 2nd rounder for Josh Rosen.

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On 1/3/2019 at 2:21 AM, Counselor said:

Recently Scouted Lock and while Ozzy probably has a more in depth assessment than I do this is what I see.

-All Arm, foot mechanics are bad

-Backpedals in the face of pressure and doesn’t have a good sense for pocket timing or edge presence and therefore has poor pocket awareness

-Smart with the football. If it isn’t there usually knows to get rid of the football. (When he does sense the pressure)

-Not the gunslinger mentality despite the arm strength but also a negative because there is not a killer mentality.

-Pretty decent athlete 

-Has an nfl caliber arm

 Locks accuracy issues stem from his footwork in my opinion. He is frustrating because he either stops foot movement (I hate dead feet in the pocket) too soon or backpedals after setting feet instead of stepping up into a throw. Might be able to get away with that in college with his arm strength but not happening in the nfl. He needs refinement and if he can get a coach to really fix the footwork he has the other tools. 


 

 
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Does his offense require him to do any reads?? Or and intermediate routes? All I see is short and long. His tape honestly looks like Paxtons.

 

Whys elway so high on him knowing the paxton route? We need a guy that can go through progressions. Read a defense. If his issues were just footwork I could live with that.

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Drew Lock is probably the favorite right now, if you ask me, but I would still like to see Denver take a closer look at Haskins and Jones. I'm so lukewarm on Kyler Murray. First off, just because he declares for the draft does not mean he'll end up playing football. He's still got an incredible amount of risk not related to his actual skill set. I would not be thrilled if Denver drafted him. 

FWIW, Lock is a halfway decent prospect. I am coming around on him slightly. He needs to fix the footwork, that's the biggest issue with him. I watched like 4 or 5 Mizzou games this year, and Lock has the tools, but his backpedal and tendency to sling the ball up instead of standing in the pocket, climbing the pocket and using proper technique is problematic. He's a deceptively good athlete, however, and as Counselor said, he's smart with the football. I think this last fact is somewhat underappreciated, but Lock doesn't make a ton of bad decisions (that I've seen).

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7 minutes ago, broncos67 said:

FWIW, Lock is a halfway decent prospect. I am coming around on him slightly. He needs to fix the footwork, that's the biggest issue with him. I watched like 4 or 5 Mizzou games this year, and Lock has the tools, but his backpedal and tendency to sling the ball up instead of standing in the pocket, climbing the pocket and using proper technique is problematic. He's a deceptively good athlete, however, and as Counselor said, he's smart with the football. I think this last fact is somewhat underappreciated, but Lock doesn't make a ton of bad decisions (that I've seen).

I'd take a smart footballer any day over someone who can make 'all the throws' (for want of a better description) - when you don't draft a smart footballer you end up with a Paxton Lynch

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I dont have much love for Kyler Murray. People like to compare him to Russ Wilson, but his arm is nowhere near the same and his frame, despite being the same size, is visibly smaller. I always like to look at precident, because while outliers exist precident is a tangible way to whiddle down a list of prospects. The precident here is that Kyler Murray is under 200lbs, and NFL QB's simply dont play at that size. I see him closer to a supercharged version of Troy Smith than anything else. But at 195lbs, he is actually 22lbs smaller than Troy, who was demolished in the NFL. I just dont see the upside outside a middle round flyer.

Drew Lock is not a guy that I trust. He has a better arm than Daniel Jones, but is insufficient everywhere else. If we are hyping ourselves up to draft him, its likely because we know the two better prospects, Daniel Jones and Haskert, will be gone by pick #10. Lock played in a simple offense, where he was able to use his arm strength to overcome technique issues that will take a long time to correct. I am much more concerned about Lock's completion % / accuracy than Jones, as his scheming should have led to tons of easy passes.

I think there is a large gap between Jones and Lock. The one issue with Jones that I see is velocity on his passes, and that may be improved with some small technical changes. Then again, if he cant improve there, he could really flame out. I still take him over Lock and even Haskert.

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40 minutes ago, broncos67 said:

Drew Lock is probably the favorite right now, if you ask me, but I would still like to see Denver take a closer look at Haskins and Jones. I'm so lukewarm on Kyler Murray. First off, just because he declares for the draft does not mean he'll end up playing football. He's still got an incredible amount of risk not related to his actual skill set. I would not be thrilled if Denver drafted him. 

FWIW, Lock is a halfway decent prospect. I am coming around on him slightly. He needs to fix the footwork, that's the biggest issue with him. I watched like 4 or 5 Mizzou games this year, and Lock has the tools, but his backpedal and tendency to sling the ball up instead of standing in the pocket, climbing the pocket and using proper technique is problematic. He's a deceptively good athlete, however, and as Counselor said, he's smart with the football. I think this last fact is somewhat underappreciated, but Lock doesn't make a ton of bad decisions (that I've seen).

Gabbert has the same issues in the pocket and all the same tools. They obviously aren’t the same person but it’s scary. 

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37 minutes ago, BroncosFan2010 said:

I dont have much love for Kyler Murray. People like to compare him to Russ Wilson, but his arm is nowhere near the same and his frame, despite being the same size, is visibly smaller. I always like to look at precident, because while outliers exist precident is a tangible way to whiddle down a list of prospects. The precident here is that Kyler Murray is under 200lbs, and NFL QB's simply dont play at that size. I see him closer to a supercharged version of Troy Smith than anything else. But at 195lbs, he is actually 22lbs smaller than Troy, who was demolished in the NFL. I just dont see the upside outside a middle round flyer.

Drew Lock is not a guy that I trust. He has a better arm than Daniel Jones, but is insufficient everywhere else. If we are hyping ourselves up to draft him, its likely because we know the two better prospects, Daniel Jones and Haskert, will be gone by pick #10. Lock played in a simple offense, where he was able to use his arm strength to overcome technique issues that will take a long time to correct. I am much more concerned about Lock's completion % / accuracy than Jones, as his scheming should have led to tons of easy passes.

I think there is a large gap between Jones and Lock. The one issue with Jones that I see is velocity on his passes, and that may be improved with some small technical changes. Then again, if he cant improve there, he could really flame out. I still take him over Lock and even Haskert.

Fair takes on Murray, Lock and Jones.   

Murray’s bowl game shows the adjustment with NFL speed.  Unlike Baker and Wilson he’s visibly smaller.  And we have no idea if he has those crazy mitts Wilson has.   One key skill Baker & Wilson both own that overcomes their short stature - the ability to retain accuracy and placement with different throw angles.   Does Murray have that?   So many Q’s, the 1st round talk is crazy.   It’s a reflection of how bad the QB top end class is IMO.    Frankly even a 2nd round pick would be a crazy risk given the above.  

Murray apparently loves football more than baseball so I get why he is doing this (we’ve discussed how the $ can be argued both ways - and as such, it comes down to what he loves - he won’t look at it as if he will fail at either, even if outsiders do).   But man, that doesn’t have to apply to teams.   I’d be really surprised if we are in the mix even at 2.9 given who we’ve chosen for our OC/QBC mix.  

Re: Lock & Jones those are the risks.   I will say again that Lock’s size and arm tools and workouts will impress everyone.  I still think he’s the guy who’s going to have massive SB/Combine helium.    His decision making and pocket awareness are some of his biggest problems (but at least pocket awareness isn’t that he can’t feel pressure he just takes off early with no pressure).   He’s also come up short in big games against similar or inferior competition.  It’s no shame to lose to better teams.  But that’s not the case with Lock. He’s been meh against average to similar competition this year.   That’s a big problem in projecting NFL adjustment.  

Jones is still the guy I prefer in a vacuum.  But his throwing tools and ceiling are not nearly as high - so it raises the Q if they are enough to translate to NFL level success (if they are, the in-between the ears skills are the best by far).   The fact it took him until his final year to really break out even with his smarts suggests an adjustment from HS to college speed / skill was needed (as his anticipation and deep ball skills were the ones that improved the most this year - accuracy and placement have always been really good).    That jump applies 10x moreso from college to NFL.   Are his arm skills good enough to let his intangibles play them up?  Can his pocket awareness improve for NFL speed edge rushers to avoid sacks / TO’s?   How quickly will his read / anticipation skills take to adjust to the faster & more complex NFL D’s? Those are the key Q’s.  If he was being targeted as a project type pick Rd3 I’d love it.  Last year he would have gone with the Lauletta / Rudolph pick range there and I’d have absolutely loved that.   But I agree this year he’s going as the 3rd or 4th QB overall and as high as 2nd.    Which is just nuts risk wise.  

The thing is with the Fangio / Kubiak choice I wonder if Elway is even considering a 1.10 QB assuming Haskins is gone (seems like a given).  

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17 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

 

Man that’s a comp that should terrify fans.  

It definitely should! Again I haven’t seen him this year but last year he looked like Matt stafford 2.0. All tools, makes good reads, poor footwork which resulted in inconsistent deep ball placement. So if he fell off of a cliff like that this year it makes me wonder why. It just highlights why having more than one year of tape on a guy is soooo important 

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