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2019 NFL Draft Thread v.2


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1 hour ago, BayRaider said:

I don’t think Carr is worth this much but imagine getting pick #13 and Xaivien Howard.. and maybe sending back a 4th or something. High way robbery. Would accept that in a second. 

Would you do Carr and 27 for 13 and Howard?

FYI - I'm against moving Carr in just about any deal because the QB position is so important. Just trying to gauge your value of him.

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3 minutes ago, NightTrainLane said:

Would you do Carr and 27 for 13 and Howard?

FYI - I'm against moving Carr in just about any deal because the QB position is so important. Just trying to gauge your value of him.

No the only way I do it is if we get more picks. I really don’t wanna blow a pick on a QB when we have so many needs. If we can get a 1st or two Seconds for Carr it’s almost a swap of Carr for Murray. We lose pick #4 (Murray) but there’s not a whole lot of players worth that pick anyways. 4-16 range you could really pick your poison. 

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4 hours ago, BayRaider said:

No the only way I do it is if we get more picks. I really don’t wanna blow a pick on a QB when we have so many needs. If we can get a 1st or two Seconds for Carr it’s almost a swap of Carr for Murray. We lose pick #4 (Murray) but there’s not a whole lot of players worth that pick anyways. 4-16 range you could really pick your poison. 

If I'm picking a QB at 4, I'm taking Haskins and not think twice about it. But I see where you're at now.

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Cardinals trade pick #1 to Raiders

Raiders trade #4, #24, #27 to Arizona

Raiders select Kyler Murray

Probably the worst night in fandom history. 

Season Preview:

Kolton Miller and Brandon Parker combine for the most sacks given up in NFL History. 

Kyler Murray retires and goes to baseball again after his ribs are shattered. 

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On 2/22/2019 at 10:21 PM, MrOaktown_56 said:

Teams also watch players play. 

You're opinions on Derek are very vague and uninformed. Your assertions about his salary are also wrong. He's not being paid like an elite qb, whether or not you "think" he is being paid like one.

Many of your criticisms of him were things improved over the course of the year.

He's had to handle a coaching carousel, lack of skill position consistency, and dysfunction. Say you drafted a rookie into a similar situation, tell me how they would do better, unless they're a transcendent talent. 

People talk about Mahomes like he's jesus, but he was only able to put up those ludicrous numbers because of a fantastic supporting cast and protection IN ADDITION to his very good play. That stuff is a team effort. It doesn't happen overnight.  

Nick foles played will on a Philly team loaded with offensive talent and an elite OL. Ryan fitzpatrick played well on a team loaded with offensive talent. See a trend here?

 

My opinions are not uninformed. They are backed up with advanced statistical data and what I see on the field. What I see is an average QB to above average QB who is being paid like an all-pro. I dont understand why you think he isn't being paid like an ELITE QB??!. This screams homerism. 

Being 6th highest paid QB in the NFL the last 2 seasons makes that ELITE money. He was #19 in PFF grades at 73.4 and #27 in QBR

ELITE QB money in the NFL with only a handful of players league-wide is getting more. His contract will age as the market goes up like normal but doesnt take in affect he hasn't lived up to his contract after getting money. 

 

Quote

Carr flashed the 2016 version of himself in bursts late in the season, but his 2018 season as a whole could be easily forgotten if not purposefully forgotten by Carr. His 1.65 turnover-worthy throw percentage from a clean pocket was the fifth-lowest mark among qualifiers, but he failed to turn clean-pocket opportunities into big plays at a high rate. His average depth of target from a clean pocket (6.26) was the lowest in the NFL, and his big-time throw percentage from a clean pocket (3.30%) was the fifth-lowest.

 

 When he had a clean pocket, he was unspectacular 

 

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1 hour ago, bucksavage1 said:

My opinions are not uninformed. They are backed up with advanced statistical data and what I see on the field. What I see is an average QB to above average QB who is being paid like an all-pro. I dont understand why you think he isn't being paid like an ELITE QB??!. This screams homerism. 

Being 6th highest paid QB in the NFL the last 2 seasons makes that ELITE money. He was #19 in PFF grades at 73.4 and #27 in QBR

ELITE QB money in the NFL with only a handful of players league-wide is getting more. His contract will age as the market goes up like normal but doesnt take in affect he hasn't lived up to his contract after getting money. 

 

 When he had a clean pocket, he was unspectacular 

 

4

They are uninformed. You can't look at "advanced statistical data" without considering the context under which it occurs. If Carr has a clean pocket, and his receivers are still uninspiring, that means they're less likely to get separation downfield, meaning a shorter ADOT and obviously a smaller "big time throw percentage".

 

 

The highest paid non-rookie deal qb's in the NFL are making between 6 to 9 million less a year than Carr. Are you saying that 6-9 million would make a difference to this team? Many teams have qb's on non-rookie deals and are succesful. The difference is that they have drafted much better than we have and have real talent around their guys.

 

Some of the best teams in the league have stability at qb. Sure they benefit from a rookie deal. But is it worth trying to draft a qb every 4-5 years? I don't think so.

What you "see on the field" isn't anything I buy either. You're expecting elite play from a guy with a bottom 5 supporting cast in another new system? Sure let's draft a qb because he had a rough start in this new system. Carr played pretty well over the back 8-10 games, all things considered. I don't know why you think drafting a rookie qb is a good idea. There's no way a rookie comes in here day 1 and kills it. Absolutely no way.

 

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17 minutes ago, MrOaktown_56 said:

They are uninformed. You can't look at "advanced statistical data" without considering the context under which it occurs. If Carr has a clean pocket, and his receivers are still uninspiring, that means they're less likely to get separation downfield, meaning a shorter ADOT and obviously a smaller "big time throw percentage".

 

 

The highest paid non-rookie deal qb's in the NFL are making between 6 to 9 million less a year than Carr. Are you saying that 6-9 million would make a difference to this team? Many teams have qb's on non-rookie deals and are succesful. The difference is that they have drafted much better than we have and have real talent around their guys.

 

Some of the best teams in the league have stability at qb. Sure they benefit from a rookie deal. But is it worth trying to draft a qb every 4-5 years? I don't think so.

What you "see on the field" isn't anything I buy either. You're expecting elite play from a guy with a bottom 5 supporting cast in another new system? Sure let's draft a qb because he had a rough start in this new system. Carr played pretty well over the back 8-10 games, all things considered. I don't know why you think drafting a rookie qb is a good idea. There's no way a rookie comes in here day 1 and kills it. Absolutely no way.

 

PFF is not an uninformed source.

They have a unique system of analytics but EVERY team uses some sort of it and even some have admitted to using PFF data

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21 minutes ago, bucksavage1 said:

PFF is not an uninformed source.

They have a unique system of analytics but EVERY team uses some sort of it and even some have admitted to using PFF data

They grade individual plays without context of who is around the player and the options they have. Carr graded as PFF's 6th best qb in 2016 and 19th this year. I don't see a 13 player gap in his play between now and then. Good players around you give you the chance to make more positive plays. PFF doesn't take this into account in ways it probably should. 

They are immensely subjective as well. They had conley as their 60th corner, or something to that effect. I'm not saying they don't offer valuable input in terms of bulk statistics they chart, but otherwise they can be quite polarizing. I'd hardly cite them as overwhelming evidence of anything.

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45 minutes ago, MrOaktown_56 said:

They grade individual plays without context of who is around the player and the options they have. Carr graded as PFF's 6th best qb in 2016 and 19th this year. I don't see a 13 player gap in his play between now and then. Good players around you give you the chance to make more positive plays. PFF doesn't take this into account in ways it probably should. 

They are immensely subjective as well. They had conley as their 60th corner, or something to that effect. I'm not saying they don't offer valuable input in terms of bulk statistics they chart, but otherwise they can be quite polarizing. I'd hardly cite them as overwhelming evidence of anything.

I have not made up my mind in regards to Carr but I do lean towards him having issues.  I think it is a combination of the talent and him developing bad habits.  The 2016 version and the 2018 version are very different. Is it just him? I do not think so but he is still not the same player yet and his body has healed.  I still do not think his 2016 season was as great as some make it out to be.  I believe his conservative style played well with our opportunistic defense that year.  If we did not have a +16 turnover ratio teams would have done many of the same things they did to him the past 2 years.  Carr was ranked 16th in QBR that year.  He does deserve another shot but he is on thin ice.

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43 minutes ago, drfrey13 said:

I have not made up my mind in regards to Carr but I do lean towards him having issues.  I think it is a combination of the talent and him developing bad habits.  The 2016 version and the 2018 version are very different. Is it just him? I do not think so but he is still not the same player yet and his body has healed.  I still do not think his 2016 season was as great as some make it out to be.  I believe his conservative style played well with our opportunistic defense that year.  If we did not have a +16 turnover ratio teams would have done many of the same things they did to him the past 2 years.  Carr was ranked 16th in QBR that year.  He does deserve another shot but he is on thin ice.

I don't buy into QBR at all. Never have. I don't see a significant difference between his play then and now. If our cast was similar and his numbers/production were down and he looked bad on the field, I'd agree with you. But there are too many variables to say he's significantly regressed. I thought he used his legs better toward the end of the year and started to handle the pocket better.

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On 2/24/2019 at 6:50 PM, big_palooka said:

Scout the player. Not the helmet. 

I wanted to hit on this one more time.  Just because I finally watched some more YouTube highlights.  If you look at J. Jacobs' best runs, they all came when he was well past the line of scrimmage without ever being touched by the defense.  his OL and QB played a major role on the success of his runs.  Even the short passes that he received were perfectly executed plays by the QB and OL.  His best runs show him going a full 10 yards before ever being touched by a defender.  You can chalk that up to vision, but it is obvious that the system made him look better than he really is.  The holes he ran through were massive.  He would be crushed behind our OL.  We're better off upgrading our OL and hoping a 275 lb CW3 can pound his way past smaller LBs and DBs. Just my opinion.  And I would honestly love to see a 250-275 lb RB crashing into LBs and DBs.

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10 hours ago, BayRaider said:

Cardinals trade pick #1 to Raiders

Raiders trade #4, #24, #27 to Arizona

Raiders select Kyler Murray

Probably the worst night in fandom history. 

Season Preview:

Kolton Miller and Brandon Parker combine for the most sacks given up in NFL History. 

Kyler Murray retires and goes to baseball again after his ribs are shattered. 

You have a vivid imagination.

 

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