Whicker Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 Argument - Reducing the number of playoff teams will reduce the amount of competitiveness in regular season games from those who are eliminated and increase the amount of tanking. There will be fewer buyers and more sellers at the deadline. There will be fewer teams pushing for the playoffs. My Rebuttal: Let me first talk about this in the abstract before I go onto more empirical evidence. Let's talk about that 0-3 start that was brought up. Or 0-X to make it easier. At what point does a team start determining the exact seeding that they will finish? When such a team does try to determine such a thing, does it take into account the possibility of a strong team losing due to reasons mostly outside of talent, such as a missed gameplan or a 4 OL week? Say I'm 0-X in a 6 team playoff format. Do I really go through all the possible scenarios to determine that I'm extremely likely to finish exactly 7th or 8th seed? At what point does a team say, "well if we had a 8 team playoff I'd definitely get up and write that game plan, but I know if I try my best and win the rest of the way, I'll finish 7th seed and miss and be pissed." I'm not trying to poke at anyone for this or be a ******. I'm legitimately asking. It's much easier for us to look at it in retrospect, but I do not think anyone takes the time to predict games 10 weeks ahead of time in order to determine if they are going to finish the 7th seed or 6th. Even if they did, there's no way to account for injuries, life, etc, that can cause even the best teams to lose to the worst. Going with an empirical example for this, Week 11 last year, I lose a blowout game to Wichita due to my mental health. I'm trailing Louisiana by 1.5 games with three weeks left. He has Orlando, Cuba, and Wichita as his remaining games. I have Camden, Rome, and Long Beach remaining. A quick look at this and you see me needing to win two full games more than Louisiana in order to jump him for the division with a schedule that heavily favors him. I'm dead in the water. I'm locked into fifth seed, right? In a different world, maybe I should not come out with my full effort anymore, right? Well Lukic's life decides to become important. His writeup against Orlando started with Quote Motivation: Limited. I'm busy as **** lol. He didn't submit a gameplan at all against Cuba, and against Wichita, his gameplan is a mere eight lines with the eighth line being "Lukic out." Not to mention this gameplan, in its eight lines, managed to take Brady off the field for Josh Allen. These gameplans will be mentioned again in this post for obvious reasons. Now, all I'm trying to prove with this point is... there's no way it's happening. There is no way that anyone, several weeks out, can predict with any accuracy what seed they will finish. Hawaii started 0-3 this year and said he would have tanked had there have been a 6 team playoff. Why? He finished 7th with the same record as the team (Ivory Coast) who finished 6th and would have made the playoffs under a 6 team structure. Ivory Coast had multiple O-line issues mid-season and was fielding Eric Kush as a starting guard. Hawaii was charging onto that sixth seed right on Ivory Coast's heels, and he almost made it. That is playoff drama, IMO. This isn't even including the fact that Hawaii had a chance at Seoul for the Atlantic division with two weeks to go. Quote Rome won Atlantic division. Orlando won the East. They are tied but Rome currently has the tiebreaker in virtue of net points. Orlando has @Seoul and Gotham left. Rome has @OKC and Ivory Coast. Similar schedules OKC and Louisiana clinched playoff spots. OKC is leading by 0.5 wins. The winner of that race get the West division and will be a seed between 1 and 3. The loser gets the 5th seed. OKC has Rome and @Long Beach. The Jizz has Cuba and @Wichita. Advantage Louisiana Seoul needs one win to clinch the Pacific and get the 4th seed. They have Orlando and Singapore left. If they lose out and Hawaii wins out (Gotham, Portland), Hawaii wins the Atlantic and gets the 4th seed The 6-7-8 seeds will be likely be decided between Seoul (7-4-1), Hawaii (6-6), Ivory Coast (7-5, @Wichita @Rome), Gotham (6-5-1, @Hawaii @Orlando) and Long Beach (6-6, Berlin OKC) Tiebreakers: Hawaii > Seoul & Long Beach, IC > Hawaii & LB, Seoul > IC, LB > Gotham I'll pass on the unlikely scenarios where Camden, Cuba, Wichita and Berlin would qualift That is from page 417 from last year's discussion thread. There would be no reason for Hawaii to tank after an 0-3 start with a 6 team playoff. They could have finished with the 4th seed if the cards fell right (like they did for me in my scenario above. It's possible). In the scenario above, 5 teams are fighting for 4 spots (3 wildcards plus Atlantic winner). Every single one of them would also have been able to obtain the record (or better), 8-6, that finished as the 6th seed. Yes, Camden, Cuba, Wichita, and Berlin were TECHNICALLY alive with an 8 team structure and they wouldn't have been in a 6 team, but were they really? Would any of these four teams felt gipped, last season, with a 6 team playoff versus 8? 5 teams fighting for 4 spots verses 5 teams fighting for 2 spots. There is empirical evidence of why there will not be fewer teams pushing for playoff spots. Now onto the trade deadline. The trade deadline for our league is always November 1st. This fell between week 8 and week 9 of the season. After week 8, these were the standings: 1. OKC - 8-0 2. Louisiana - 6-1-1 3. Orlando - 6-2 4. Rome - 6-2 5. Seoul - 5-2-1 6. Gotham - 4-3-1 7. Hawaii - 4-4 8. Cuba - 4-4 9. Long Beach - 4-4 10. Camden - 3-4-1 11. Ivory Coast - 3-5 12. Berlin - 3-5 13. Singapore - 2-6 14. Sydney - 2-6 15. Portland - 1-6-1 16. Wichita - 0-8 Which of these teams are buyers in an 8 team playoff? Which are buyers in a 6 team playoff? Would you consider Ivory Coast, at 11th, a buyer or a seller? They ended up finishing with the 6th seed. Let's look at the actual trades that occurred during deadline. I'll go back an entire week, to October 24th, to see what trades happened and who was buying or selling. Quote Ivory Coast Black Rhinos trade: OT Eric Fisher 4,800/4 LB Mark Barron 3,600/3 2019 2nd Round IC 2019 4th Round IC Cap space current: 4,984 Cap space after: 1,224 Berlin Blitzkrieg trade: OT Trent Williams 11,560/3 RB Damien Williams 600/1 Cap space current: 3,057 Cap space after: 6,817 This trade happened on October 24th, the Wednesday before week 8. Ivory Coast and Berlin are both 3-4. It seems like record has little bearing on this trade. Quote Singapore Trades RB Spencer Ware $1,251/1 LB Jelani Jenkins $742/1 - FA 2019 Sydney 6th Berlin Trades 2019 OKC 7th @Ragnarok to confirm October 25th. Yawn. Quote Louisiana Trades: Portland 6th Round Pick Eli Apple Kyle Rudolph Wichita Trades; Jared Cook TJ Lang@PR to confirm October 29th. That trade deadline is furiously spitting out those trades now! I'm not really sure who's buying or selling here. Seems like a bit of both for both sides. Quote ***TRADE*** Camden Hood Rats trade Odell Beckham, WR Orlando Ospreys trade Orlando 1st Louisiana 1st Vic Beasley, Edge Okay so we got our big deal on October 31st, the day before deadline. The current #3 seed is buying. This isn't going to change regardless of format. The 10th seed with a floundering QB (Lamar Jackson did not make his first start until November 18th. Alex Smith didn't break his leg until week 11) situation decided to sell his stud on an expiring contract. Quote Camden Hood Rats trade: TE Tyler Higbee Sing Sing Centennials trade: LB/DE Tarell Basham Yawn. Here because I'm not leaving out any trades. Quote Seoul trades Seoul 4th Cuba 7th Robert Alford Total Cap Hit 4,065 Berlin trades Ronald Darby Spencer Ware DJ Humphries Jelani Jenkins Total Cap Hit 4,318 Seoul takes on $253 in cap. So there's a lot of pieces here, but this isn't quite what I'd call a "buy." Even if it is, we have a #5 seed buyer and a seller who's already been selling. Quote Singapore Trades LB Shaq Thompson Seoul Trades OT Donovan Smith Yawn Quote Camden Sends: Josh Gordon 8,000/2 Taylor Decker 1,800/2 Hawaii sends: 2019 2nd 2019 5th Pierre Garcon 3,800/1 Tom Compton 501/1 William Hayes 2,334/1 Jordan Phillips 1,700/1 Same seller as before. Buyer is tied for .5 games out of the 6th seed. Quote Singapore Trades S Vonn Bell Sydney Trades OT La'el Collins Yawn Quote Berlin trades DeSean Jackson Brian Quick Cuba trades Chris Baker Andy Levitre Another buyer who is tied for .5 games out of the 6th seed. One of only two real "sellers" we've had. This one's not even really a buy similar to Darby. Even if (and it's a big if IMO) we'd lose buyers at the deadline, the trade deadline isn't some windfall of movement between studs that alters the fabric of the league. In fact, I'd say that we'd almost need more sellers at the deadline as Camden and Berlin executed by far the largest amount of talent/cap dump and draft acquisition. Now to the final point, that reducing the number of playoff teams will increase the amount of effortless/missed gameplans more than it'll increase the amount of competitiveness from contending teams. I contend that activity level is more related to someone's life circumstances than their BDL standing. Let's look at some empirical examples. The first are the ones that I brought up earlier: the three final regular season gameplans from Louisiana. https://forums.footballsfuture.com/topic/14483-bdl-2018-week-12-louisiana-jazz-orlando-ospreys/https://forums.footballsfuture.com/topic/14695-bdl-2018-week-13-cuba-smugglers-louisiana-jazz/https://forums.footballsfuture.com/topic/14895-bdl-2018-week-14-louisiana-jazz-wichita-woodpeckers/ Is there an explanation for this that has to do with BDL? IMO, this clearly documents someone who has a busy life and didn't have the time to dedicate to BDL. Regardless of what his record was at the time, I argue that Lukic would have struggled to submit adequate gameplans during these weeks. Second example is Gotham this year. As shown in the trade deadline contention, Gotham was sitting on a 4-3-1 record after week 8 and sitting pretty well in terms of playoff contention. Gotham is a favorite to make the playoffs at this point, IMO. Gotham wins in week 9 and week 10 before a close loss in week 11. They're sitting at 6-4-1 after 11 weeks when 8-6 skates into the playoffs. https://forums.footballsfuture.com/topic/14510-bdl-2018-week-12-long-beach-leprechauns-gotham-gashslayers/https://forums.footballsfuture.com/topic/14709-bdl-2018-week-13-gotham-gashslayers-hawaii-nightmarchers/https://forums.footballsfuture.com/topic/14910-bdl-2018-week-14-gotham-gashslayers-orlando-ospreys/ These were the final three submissions from Gotham. Less than adequate gameplans contain more words than these three gameplans combined. What happened here? I can at least say with confidence that these effortless gameplans didn't come from being eliminated from playoff contention. So let's say the trade deadline is the turning point of the season where people decide contention/non-contention. I know it's not this simple, but I think looking at week 9 onward is a good representation of how people are feeling about their season. https://forums.footballsfuture.com/topic/14349-bdl-2018-week-11-wichita-woodpeckers-oklahoma-city-ef5s/https://forums.footballsfuture.com/topic/14484-bdl-2018-week-12-portland-horned-owls-cuba-smugglers/https://forums.footballsfuture.com/topic/14511-bdl-2018-week-12-berlin-blitzkrieg-singapore-sentinels/https://forums.footballsfuture.com/topic/14892-bdl-2018-week-14-sydney-dingos-camden-hood-rats/https://forums.footballsfuture.com/topic/14911-bdl-2018-week-14-portland-horned-owls-hawaii-nightmarchers/ Week 9 and beyond, these are the only 5 games (other than the Louisiana and Gotham games which I've already linked) which contained writeups that I deemed unacceptable. Anyone is welcome to check my work and link to any game I missed. One of those involved a top team (OKC) who's circumstances were 100% related to life problems. Cuba and Singapore definitely had "don't give a ****" writeups in week 12, but they both played non-playoff contenders and both showed up the following weeks with strong submissions. Camden's poor writeup consisted of some circumstance where Dingo said he'd be unavailable to submit that week but somehow did anyway, otherwise I think we would have gotten a full writeup from Lash. The only tank-job here is the week 14 submission from Portland. I've linked to you all 11 games from the trade deadline forward where we saw effortless or missed plans. Seven of those 11 submissions came from playoff teams or teams that were undeniably in the hunt. One of them (Camden), I believe, can be dismissed based on the circumstances involved. So we have 3 total poor submissions from eliminated teams. Only one of those games had any effect on playoff scenarios regardless of an 8 or 6 or 4 team playoff. By contrast, here are some of the gameplans from teams that were mathematically or essentially eliminated from playoff play. https://forums.footballsfuture.com/topic/14896-bdl-2018-week-14-berlin-blitzkrieg-cuba-smugglers/https://forums.footballsfuture.com/topic/14912-bdl-2018-week-14-singapore-sentinels-seoul-dragons/https://forums.footballsfuture.com/topic/14708-bdl-2018-week-13-camden-hood-rats-portland-horned-owls/https://forums.footballsfuture.com/topic/14696-bdl-2018-week-13-ivory-coast-black-rhinos-wichita-woodpeckers/https://forums.footballsfuture.com/topic/14694-bdl-2018-week-13-berlin-blitzkrieg-long-beach-leprechauns/https://forums.footballsfuture.com/topic/14707-bdl-2018-week-13-sydney-dingos-singapore-sentinels/https://forums.footballsfuture.com/topic/14695-bdl-2018-week-13-cuba-smugglers-louisiana-jazz/ One final example is from 2017. I'm 0-5 heading into a week 6 match with Louisiana who's 5-0. I'm already out of playoff contention and I'm facing a team that hadn't lost in like two years. However, it was against a division rival with whom I'm always ready to bring it. I wanted to be that spoiler team that knocked the juggernaut down a notch. And I just wanted to win a damn game for my own pride. I am using this example because it was my game and I know what my motivations were. I didn't care one iota bit how it was going to affect my draft spot or my playoff seeding or anything. I just wanted to beat Lukic. And I submitted what was, IMO, one of the greatest gameplan submissions in my short BDL history. https://forums.footballsfuture.com/topic/3381-bdl-2017-week-6-louisiana-jazz-oklahoma-city-rogues/ There are more things that motivate people to come to BDL every week other than making the playoffs and winning a championship. I know for a damn fact that I hate to lose no matter how much I gain or lose from the game. I know for a damn fact that I'd be straight embarrassed to submit an effortless gameplan when I could have put in the effort. I know for a fact that XMad is bringing it every time he plays Seoul. We've got great personal and divisional rivalries and we've got great egos. A lot of us, at the very least, are submitting strong gameplans regardless of where we are in the standings, and the proof is right there. And when one of us decides to phone it in for a week, it seems to me like it's a pretty good bet that it's because they couldn't find the time to make it to their PC rather than choosing to sit and watch TV than get up for BDL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scoundrel Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 My goodness Whicker. I’ll follow whatever you want to do after that post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PR Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 We need a clap gif for Whicker. Well said. Very thorough. I think it perfectly addresses others concerns. I think the inactivity we see is not as much game plan submitted but voting which I believe is being discussed about moving back the deadline for voting which I dont believe will be altered with a 6 team playoff system. Perhaps with more time people will have more time to log in and vote. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BringinDaPain Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 4 hours ago, Counselor said: My goodness Whicker. I’ll follow whatever you want to do after that post. I wanna, Will my Gran Torino to Whicker now after the post.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bcb1213 Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 Here's the the thing guys. While we get feelings about this and that. We do this for fun. I think having more teams make the playoffs is fun. We do not need to mimic the NFL. This is the BDL I am adamently against only a quarter of the teams making the playoffs. That would make this tougher than any league Irl People think it's too long of a season is not fun. I'm willing to look at that. Try mixing up the scheduele start earlier with a bye and see if that solves an issue, if not shorten it next season I'd rather baby step an issue to see if it works then over do it right off the bat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ragnarok Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 1 hour ago, bcb1213 said: Here's the the thing guys. While we get feelings about this and that. We do this for fun. I think having more teams make the playoffs is fun. We do not need to mimic the NFL. This is the BDL I am adamently against only a quarter of the teams making the playoffs. That would make this tougher than any league Irl People think it's too long of a season is not fun. I'm willing to look at that. Try mixing up the scheduele start earlier with a bye and see if that solves an issue, if not shorten it next season I'd rather baby step an issue to see if it works then over do it right off the bat That's what a lot of my points boil down to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ragnarok Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 Quote Which of these teams are buyers in an 8 team playoff? Which are buyers in a 6 team playoff? Would you consider Ivory Coast, at 11th, a buyer or a seller? They ended up finishing with the 6th seed. Let's look at the actual trades that occurred during deadline. I'll go back an entire week, to October 24th, to see what trades happened and who was buying or selling. 1. It varies from year to year. I was selling, others were buying. In years past, we have had a ton of sellers, more than this year. Part of the reason was that so many teams were in the playoff hunt. 2. This statement... Quote There is empirical evidence of why there will not be fewer teams pushing for playoff spots. Is a an absolute untruth. There is no empirical evidence of this. It varies from year to year. However, it is logical to state that with fewer teams in the playoffs, more teams will be essentially eliminated earlier, which means they will not be pushing for a playoff spot. The post you quoted has all sorts of fun playoff possibilities with multiple teams, cutting the number of teams will reduce the number of possibilities. 3. On to this point... Quote Now to the final point, that reducing the number of playoff teams will increase the amount of effortless/missed gameplans more than it'll increase the amount of competitiveness from contending teams. I contend that activity level is more related to someone's life circumstances than their BDL standing. In regards to this, yes, you are technically correct that whether or not someone gets in an actual, viable gameplan or not, it is usually dependent on real life issues. However, there are more degrees of activity level than that. Once I am essentially out of the playoff chase, the actual fun of game planning is largely gone. Yes, I still turn something in basically to not get punished, and I might say something about trying to ruin someone else's season, but is it as enjoyable? No. Also, what purpose does a bye actually have? Not like we need to rest players. You have stated that the 1 and 2 seeds are almost autowins, so that would be basically the same. Except that we actually had a 7 seed win last year, so that is illogical. The only thing this would accomplish is causing teams to be essentially eliminated even earlier. And there is a big difference in the fun one receives from doing a write up when they have that hope of the playoffs and when they are basically out of it. I'm not voting for a change that I think will have the net result in reducing the fun aspect of BDL. Especially when it would not resolve any of the concerns over season length. Edit - I think those were all the main points. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ragnarok Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 10 hours ago, Counselor said: My goodness Whicker. I’ll follow whatever you want to do after that post. I would read it first, because I find a lot of it illogical or misleading. 9 hours ago, PR said: We need a clap gif for Whicker. Well said. Very thorough. I think it perfectly addresses others concerns. I think the inactivity we see is not as much game plan submitted but voting which I believe is being discussed about moving back the deadline for voting which I dont believe will be altered with a 6 team playoff system. Perhaps with more time people will have more time to log in and vote. I strongly disagree. I don't think it came close to any of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ragnarok Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 One more thing, all the articles Whicker posted about 6 teams vs 12 teams or whatever those were are inapplicable. Those were talking about the NFL where the talent is much more spread out. That's not the case in BDL. The talent level between teams is much, much closer, so keeping the 7th and 8th seeds makes sense as they are capable of taking down a 1 or 2 seed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PR Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 3 hours ago, bcb1213 said: Here's the the thing guys. While we get feelings about this and that. We do this for fun. I think having more teams make the playoffs is fun. We do not need to mimic the NFL. This is the BDL I am adamently against only a quarter of the teams making the playoffs. That would make this tougher than any league Irl People think it's too long of a season is not fun. I'm willing to look at that. Try mixing up the scheduele start earlier with a bye and see if that solves an issue, if not shorten it next season I'd rather baby step an issue to see if it works then over do it right off the bat In the NBA 16/30 Make it. (53%) In the MLB 10/30 Make it (30%) In the NFL 12/32 Make it (37%) Right now we have 8/16 teams making it in (50%) If we cut down to 6, we are still at 37% which is the same percentage as the NFL. The regular season is supposed to matter to make it to the post season. Not everyone gets into Fantasy league playoffs so why do we continue to have a system that puts a high percentage of teams into the playoffs. It would make people be more serious about doing their lineups and strategies. Not be lax and jack around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bcb1213 Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 1 minute ago, PR said: In the NBA 16/30 Make it. (53%) In the MLB 10/30 Make it (30%) In the NFL 12/32 Make it (37%) Right now we have 8/16 teams making it in (50%) If we cut down to 6, we are still at 37% which is the same percentage as the NFL. The regular season is supposed to matter to make it to the post season. Not everyone gets into Fantasy league playoffs so why do we continue to have a system that puts a high percentage of teams into the playoffs. It would make people be more serious about doing their lineups and strategies. Not be lax and jack around. You realize Whicker wants 4 and not six right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PR Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 Just now, bcb1213 said: You realize Whicker wants 4 and not six right No one wants 4 beyond Whicker. The majority who would approve the reduction would be going for 6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ragnarok Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 Just now, PR said: In the NBA 16/30 Make it. (53%) In the MLB 10/30 Make it (30%) In the NFL 12/32 Make it (37%) Right now we have 8/16 teams making it in (50%) If we cut down to 6, we are still at 37% which is the same percentage as the NFL. The regular season is supposed to matter to make it to the post season. Not everyone gets into Fantasy league playoffs so why do we continue to have a system that puts a high percentage of teams into the playoffs. It would make people be more serious about doing their lineups and strategies. Not be lax and jack around. Except that having the higher percentage makes sense because of the consolidation of talent. The regular season does matter and it is better to have it matter for longer. Not everyone makes it in BDL either. I think the argument that this would make people more serious about lineups and strategies is misguided. If anything, it'll lower that as teams are out of it earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bcb1213 Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 Just now, PR said: No one wants 4 beyond Whicker. The majority who would approve the reduction would be going for 6. So when you're agreeing with Whicker you're not agreeing with Whicker Long as we're on the same page For your other points you may get two or three that won't lax as much but you may get two or three that punt earlier in the year as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PR Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 Just now, Ragnarok said: Except that having the higher percentage makes sense because of the consolidation of talent. The regular season does matter and it is better to have it matter for longer. Not everyone makes it in BDL either. I think the argument that this would make people more serious about lineups and strategies is misguided. If anything, it'll lower that as teams are out of it earlier. Do you have a lack of faith in the perseverance of the owners in this league of trying to compete for spots? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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