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Dee Ford


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1 minute ago, BrettFavre004 said:

Dee Ford + Justin Houston + 4th

2nd + 6th + Nick Perry
 

it's just so complicated it might work! 

Then you realize 11.1M for pre June 1 dead cap for perry... plus the huge contracts of ford and houston... yeah it's tough to spend almost 50M in cap at that position and still not be a top team at the position.

 

If it's post June 1, then it's more palatable at ~4M dead cap for perry plus 21M for Houston plus 15+ for Ford.

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Dee Ford												
Year	Age	Team	G	GS	INT	PD	FF	Sack	TFL	Hits	Snaps	Snaps/Play
2014	23	KAN	16	0	0	1		1,5	1	5	122	14,4
2015	24	KAN	14	5	0	2		4	6	11	479	20,8
2016	25	KAN	15	14	0	2	1	10	12	17	799	19,0
2017	26	KAN	6	6	0	1	1	2	4	7	316	21,1
2018	27	KAN	16	16			7	13	13	29	1022	16,5
TOTAL			67	41	0	6	9	30,5	36	69	2738	18,2
Nick Perry												
Year	Age	Team	G	GS	INT	PD	FF	Sack	TFL	Hits	Snaps	Snaps/Play
2012	22	GNB	6	5	0	1		2	1	2	198	33,0
2013	23	GNB	11	6	0	1	3	4	2	1	367	33,4
2014	24	GNB	15	4	0	1	1	3	4	3	358	29,8
2015	25	GNB	14	1	0	1	1	3,5	10	7	349	15,5
2016	26	GNB	14	12	1	4		11	12	16	603	13,7
2017	27	GNB	12	11			1	7	6	14	542	19,4
2018	28	GNB	9	9	0	3	1	1,5	2	3	302	28,8
TOTAL			81	48	1	11	7	32	37	46	2719	20,3

I was curious about that "2017 was only because he was injured" argument so I got some stats from PFR regarding both Perry and Ford. What I tried to do is reflect positive plays and obtain the ratio of such plays considering snaps played. In this scenario I considered the following plays: sacks, tackles for loss, passes defended, interceptions, forced fumbles and QB hits. I didn't assign any weight to each of them to try to avoid any bias - if you guys want me to run the numbers with any given weights, let me know.

According to these numbers it seems Ford's production has been very consistent and the raw numbers only vary from year to year due to snaps played. Perry on the other hand has a lot more variation, including a terrible 2018.

Also worth noting is that Ford has played more snaps in 5 years than Perry in 7.

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18 hours ago, Donzo said:

Adams was a big producer in 2016 and 2017 (especially factoring in his production without Rodgers).

2017 was his contract year.

2016 he was not a “big producer”- he didn’t even have 1000 yards.

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8 minutes ago, Cpdaly23 said:

2017 was his contract year.

2016 he was not a “big producer”- he didn’t even have 1000 yards.

75 receptions for 997 yards and 12 touchdowns isn't being a big producer? And you're really going to use "he didn't even have 1000 yards" without acknowledging he was only three yards short of that? Three?! That's really your argument?

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10 hours ago, Kepler said:

75 receptions for 997 yards and 12 touchdowns isn't being a big producer? And you're really going to use "he didn't even have 1000 yards" without acknowledging he was only three yards short of that? Three?! That's really your argument?

The original point made in this thread is that Dee Ford only had a “monster” season in a contract year.  He had 10 sacks in 2016.

And yes, while Adams 2016 season was good, a 997 yard, 75 catch season is NOT a monster year, and is probably pretty close to Dee Ford’s 10 sack season.  

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7 minutes ago, Arthur Penske said:

This is what I expected, Gutey’s waiting to see who he can get in free agency before going after Ford. Maybe if San Fran signs a big edge it drops Fords price a bit?

https://packerswire.usatoday.com/2019/03/11/packers-willing-to-wait-on-pursuing-trade-for-chiefs-olb-dee-ford/

yep good plan.

let the potential buyers drop out of the bidding war

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4 hours ago, {Family Ghost} said:

It's smart to wait the Dee Ford thing out a bit.  Nobody wants to give up a top 50 pick while also having to pay top dollar to sign the guy.  He's not a good fit any longer in KC, so they aren't going to want to pay him franchise tag money either.

Is it though? After the FA market dries up, the teams that missed out will turn their attention to Ford, causing his price to rise. I'm not on board with shipping a 2nd for Ford, but I would hate it if a bidding war resulted in us having to ship a 1st instead

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1 minute ago, smetana34 said:

Is it though? After the FA market dries up, the teams that missed out will turn their attention to Ford, causing his price to rise. I'm not on board with shipping a 2nd for Ford, but I would hate it if a bidding war resulted in us having to ship a 1st instead

You just have to set your price and not stray from it ... take your best shot and then move on.  

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8 hours ago, Cpdaly23 said:

The original point made in this thread is that Dee Ford only had a “monster” season in a contract year.  He had 10 sacks in 2016.

And yes, while Adams 2016 season was good, a 997 yard, 75 catch season is NOT a monster year, and is probably pretty close you Dee Ford’s 10 sack season.  

I said big producer. 12 touchdowns is a big producer to me.

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