2019 WR Corps

[Mazrimiv]

It's not as if Thompson didn't place a premium on receivers.

In his first four drafts, Thompson added WR's Murphy, Jennings, Jones, Nelson and TE Finley in RD2/RD3.  After that he spent RD2 picks on Cobb and Adams to keep the talent level fairly consistent at WR.  I'm sure the team expected Cobb to age better than he did in the slot. Had that worked out, a trio of Adams, MVS, Cobb wound look pretty good right now, and the team would be setup to draft Cobb's replacement.  As it is, they'll need MVS to step up in a big way this year.  There is a lot of optimism for that happening, and that's great, but it's 100% projection at this point.  I see a lot of decent but not special talent behind Adams and MVS.  Projecting Gute to spend something like a mid-RD2 pick next year at WR makes perfect sense to me, and is right in line with what I would have expected from a TT led draft.

[Donzo]

16 hours ago, packfanfb said:

Whitted speaking @Donzos language here with MVS taking the top off the defense. 😉

Yep, told ya so... 

But, not really. It's just basic football 101 stuff... The push back on it was just  message board silliness. 

[Mazrimiv]

I guess maybe I'm a glass half-empty guy, but these "player X looks great" quotes coming from position coaches in pre-season mean less than nothing to me.  A lot of guys have the physical talent to succeed at the NFL level.  Only a small percentage of those guys actually do.

[Leader]

11 minutes ago, Mazrimiv said:

I guess maybe I'm a glass half-empty guy, but these "player X looks great" quotes coming from position coaches in pre-season mean less than nothing to me.  A lot of guys have the physical talent to succeed at the NFL level.  Only a small percentage of those guys actually do.

This is true. What matters or should be considered is what a player does on the field - and although I cant say I've seen the push back against MVS thats alluded to (and dont intend to get into a pissing match about said non-existant push back) - MVS did have rookie numbers that did put him in good standing.

My hope is that with the many distractions of 2018 in the rear view mirror and with a coaching staff on steady and certain ground once again - his skills will be honed, improved and utilized to a greater degree. ProBowl? AllPro? Cant say and dont care. Effective and productive is just fine with me.

[Golfman]

13 hours ago, Mazrimiv said:

It's not as if Thompson didn't place a premium on receivers.

In his first four drafts, Thompson added WR's Murphy, Jennings, Jones, Nelson and TE Finley in RD2/RD3.  After that he spent RD2 picks on Cobb and Adams to keep the talent level fairly consistent at WR.  I'm sure the team expected Cobb to age better than he did in the slot. Had that worked out, a trio of Adams, MVS, Cobb wound look pretty good right now, and the team would be setup to draft Cobb's replacement.  As it is, they'll need MVS to step up in a big way this year.  There is a lot of optimism for that happening, and that's great, but it's 100% projection at this point.  I see a lot of decent but not special talent behind Adams and MVS.  Projecting Gute to spend something like a mid-RD2 pick next year at WR makes perfect sense to me, and is right in line with what I would have expected from a TT led draft.

Doesn't that depend on how MVS and St. Brown do this year? I think there is a realistic possibility that Allison and Davis leave via free agency next year. Even a decent year out of them and they will likely score bigger deals elsewhere than here if MVS is developing and so is St. Brown. This is another reason I do not want St. Brown 'redshirted' and put on IR. We need to see if he's going to continue to grow and develop. 

If he feel pretty good about those two, plus Davante, I'm not sure a 2nd would be required. I guess it all depends where the draft board falls and our other needs. 

Martinez is the only guy who, IMO, we really need to get done b4 free agency 2020. It would be a bonus to give either Allison or Davis an extension, but I don't think it can be for a lot of money. Put another way, I don't see that happening. 

[Greg C.]

9 hours ago, Golfman said:

Doesn't that depend on how MVS and St. Brown do this year? I think there is a realistic possibility that Allison and Davis leave via free agency next year. Even a decent year out of them and they will likely score bigger deals elsewhere than here if MVS is developing and so is St. Brown. This is another reason I do not want St. Brown 'redshirted' and put on IR. We need to see if he's going to continue to grow and develop. 

If he feel pretty good about those two, plus Davante, I'm not sure a 2nd would be required. I guess it all depends where the draft board falls and our other needs. 

Martinez is the only guy who, IMO, we really need to get done b4 free agency 2020. It would be a bonus to give either Allison or Davis an extension, but I don't think it can be for a lot of money. Put another way, I don't see that happening. 

I'm against "redshirting" St. Brown too. He needs to play as much as possible so he can improve. Let him be a game-day inactive for four or five weeks. That's the main reason you have game-day inactives: to sit players who have short-term injuries. I just hope it isn't one of those high ankle sprains that drags on and on. 

[SSG]

11 hours ago, Golfman said:

Doesn't that depend on how MVS and St. Brown do this year? I think there is a realistic possibility that Allison and Davis leave via free agency next year. Even a decent year out of them and they will likely score bigger deals elsewhere than here if MVS is developing and so is St. Brown. This is another reason I do not want St. Brown 'redshirted' and put on IR. We need to see if he's going to continue to grow and develop. 

If he feel pretty good about those two, plus Davante, I'm not sure a 2nd would be required. I guess it all depends where the draft board falls and our other needs. 

Martinez is the only guy who, IMO, we really need to get done b4 free agency 2020. It would be a bonus to give either Allison or Davis an extension, but I don't think it can be for a lot of money. Put another way, I don't see that happening. 

Think it will likely come down to value.  Thompson generally didn't have any sort of regard to the roster when it came to drafting WRs.  We generally had 2 stud starting WRs and it didn't stop him from spending high picks.  

We used our first pick on Jordy Nelson in 2008.  He had Driver (33), Jennings (25), Jones (24) and Ruvell Martin (26)

We used our second round pick on Randall Cobb in 2011.  We had Driver, Jennings, Jones and Nelson on the roster. 

Even when we drafted Adams we had Nelson and Cobb playing at the highest levels of their careers.  We also had Jarrett Boykin who was fresh off the sort of production we just got from MVS.   

 

[Golfman]

2 minutes ago, SSG said:

Think it will likely come down to value.  Thompson generally didn't have any sort of regard to the roster when it came to drafting WRs.  We generally had 2 stud starting WRs and it didn't stop him from spending high picks.  

We used our first pick on Jordy Nelson in 2008.  He had Driver (33), Jennings (25), Jones (24) and Ruvell Martin (26)

We used our second round pick on Randall Cobb in 2011.  We had Driver, Jennings, Jones and Nelson on the roster. 

Even when we drafted Adams we had Nelson and Cobb playing at the highest levels of their careers.  We also had Jarrett Boykin who was fresh off the sort of production we just got from MVS.   

 

Those are fair points, my only question is does LaFleur's offense rely as heavily on 3, 4 WR's as McCarthy did? 

[SSG]

16 minutes ago, Golfman said:

Those are fair points, my only question is does LaFleur's offense rely as heavily on 3, 4 WR's as McCarthy did? 

That's a good question.  Gotta imagine (or hope) as long as AR12 is our QB we're going to be in 11 an awful lot.  

[CWood21]

15 hours ago, Donzo said:

Yep, told ya so... 

But, not really. It's just basic football 101 stuff... The push back on it was just  message board silliness. 

I mean, Ted Ginn is still taking off the defenses for the Dolphins all these years...

[Leader]

24 minutes ago, SSG said:

Think it will likely come down to value.  Thompson generally didn't have any sort of regard to the roster when it came to drafting WRs.  We generally had 2 stud starting WRs and it didn't stop him from spending high picks.  We used our first pick on Jordy Nelson in 2008.  He had Driver (33), Jennings (25), Jones (24) and Ruvell Martin (26) We used our second round pick on Randall Cobb in 2011.  We had Driver, Jennings, Jones and Nelson on the roster. Even when we drafted Adams we had Nelson and Cobb playing at the highest levels of their careers.  We also had Jarrett Boykin who was fresh off the sort of production we just got from MVS.

Nelson was a second round pick - first pick - but second round. Dont remember why we lost our first round selection. 

[CWood21]

31 minutes ago, SSG said:

Think it will likely come down to value.  Thompson generally didn't have any sort of regard to the roster when it came to drafting WRs.  We generally had 2 stud starting WRs and it didn't stop him from spending high picks.  

We used our first pick on Jordy Nelson in 2008.  He had Driver (33), Jennings (25), Jones (24) and Ruvell Martin (26)

We used our second round pick on Randall Cobb in 2011.  We had Driver, Jennings, Jones and Nelson on the roster. 

Even when we drafted Adams we had Nelson and Cobb playing at the highest levels of their careers.  We also had Jarrett Boykin who was fresh off the sort of production we just got from MVS.   

I mean, a smart GM is going to build a franchise around their best player.  The Packers best player when Ted Thompson took over was Brett Favre, and his WRs were Donald Driver, Javon Walker (coming off an injury-plagued season), Robert Ferguson, and Antonio Chatman.  A year later, the Packers ended up trading Javon Walker for a 2nd round pick.  At that point, Donald Driver was entering his age 30 season.  Since then, the Packers drafted Terrence Murphy, Greg Jennings, James Jones, and Jordy Nelson in the first 96 picks in four years.  Of the four, two became standout WRs, one became a solid WR, and another one was an injury bust.  Batting .500 on Day 2 picks isn't anything to get excited or disappointed about.  3 years after drafting Jordy Nelson in the 2nd round, the Packers took Randall Cobb which was 2 years prior to Greg Jennings leaving.  That was about restocking the cupboard.

[MrBobGray]

You know what's weird; I think there's a decent chance the story of this season next year will be "where the hell did this Trevor Davis come from?"  He looks like a completely different player on the field.  He's sharp and aggressive in his routes in a way he wasn't always in the past.  He looks for contact as a ball carrier for no reason because it sure as hell doesn't gain many yards.  He seems set on proving he's changed man and now he's done it in practice and in a game.  Given he's still the team's best returner he'll make the roster, and if he keeps practicing like this he'll see the field.  That dude has very real talent if this is the kind of effort he's going to put in.  6'1, 200 and runs a 4.40 with that kind of change of direction ability is a legit WR1.  Not expecting that of him this year, but this is very much him living up to the talent he always had rather than suddenly becoming a new kind of player.

Also think Sheppard is a player.  Superb body control and can catch at full extension with consistency.  Those are not traits you see in a smart, shifty slot player like him very often.  I'm not saying his ceiling is Welker, but his ceiling is totally Welker.  This sucks because I think after those two,  Moore vs Kumerow Moore gets the cut.  Not that I would make that call, but the team seems to love him and frankly he's taken another step this year.  He's clearly worked hard on his release, which was the area of his game most badly in need of improvement.  Cutting a player like Moore for a player who's ceiling is 2016 Jordy Nelson is hard for me to stomach, but at least that guy can still be productive.  I still think Moore is a boost of confidence away from being a legit weapon as a gadget layer for this team.  Those physical gifts are abundant, he just needs to play with some damn confidence.  He had a pretty nice catch in the Raiders grade so at least he came out of the game with a neutral-positive game.  I hope he somehow sticks around because I feel like he's closer than he looks to being in the same tier as MVS.

Edited August 26, 2019 by MrBobGray

[Greg C.]

4 hours ago, MrBobGray said:

You know what's weird; I think there's a decent chance the story of this season next year will be "where the hell did this Trevor Davis come from?"  He looks like a completely different player on the field.  He's sharp and aggressive in his routes in a way he wasn't always in the past.  He looks for contact as a ball carrier for no reason because it sure as hell doesn't gain many yards.  He seems set on proving he's changed man and now he's done it in practice and in a game.  Given he's still the team's best returner he'll make the roster, and if he keeps practicing like this he'll see the field.  That dude has very real talent if this is the kind of effort he's going to put in.  6'1, 200 and runs a 4.40 with that kind of change of direction ability is a legit WR1.  Not expecting that of him this year, but this is very much him living up to the talent he always had rather than suddenly becoming a new kind of player.

Also think Sheppard is a player.  Superb body control and can catch at full extension with consistency.  Those are not traits you see in a smart, shifty slot player like him very often.  I'm not saying his ceiling is Welker, but his ceiling is totally Welker.  This sucks because I think after those two,  Moore vs Kumerow Moore gets the cut.  Not that I would make that call, but the team seems to love him and frankly he's taken another step this year.  He's clearly worked hard on his release, which was the area of his game most badly in need of improvement.  Cutting a player like Moore for a player who's ceiling is 2016 Jordy Nelson is hard for me to stomach, but at least that guy can still be productive.  I still think Moore is a boost of confidence away from being a legit weapon as a gadget layer for this team.  Those physical gifts are abundant, he just needs to play with some damn confidence.  He had a pretty nice catch in the Raiders grade so at least he came out of the game with a neutral-positive game.  I hope he somehow sticks around because I feel like he's closer than he looks to being in the same tier as MVS.

You might be the only one left on the sinking ship that is J'Mon Moore. I don't see how he makes the team, and at this point I don't even see him as a practice squad candidate. His catch against the Raiders, by the way, looked completely routine to me, and it was for a five-yard gain. He was an afterthought in that game, not even seeing the field until the second half, as far as I could tell. 

I do see Trevor Davis as possibly a good #4 or #5 receiver. I haven't noticed him looking for contact when he has the ball. If he's been doing that, he better stop. I don't know why he looks so much better this year, but I wonder if he is getting more opportunities with LaFleur as coach than he ever did with McCarthy. 

[OneTwoSixFive]

Contracts might be the key to the WR group.

Allison, Davis and Kumerow are in the last year of their contracts (Kumerow and Allison were only one year contracts, anyway). they are 25, 26 and 27 years old, respectively. While all three are close to locks for 2019, it is very likely to change after that.

The salaries are currently small with all of them (Allison earns more, but at less than $2.5m, it's still pretty cheap). It is possible the Packers make all three of these guys a modest offer and see if anyone bites. If they get any takers, that guy or guys are kept. If the cost of keeping them seems too high, they are allowed to walk. Even if all three were not retained (pretty unlikely, imo), Adams, MVS, Shepherd, ESB, Lazard do not look like a horrible top five options. ESB, MVS, Shepherd, are all signed through 2021, while Lazard is on a one year contract.

If pushed into predicting 2020, I'd say Allison leaves for more money elsewhere, while Kumerow and Davis are retained. Shepherd slides into the slot role and takes on some of Davis's punt return duties, while Kumerow and ESB are capable of playing anywhere. Adams/MVS/Shepherd,/Kumerow/ESB looks like a perfectly fine receiver group, with Lazard as WR6, if you have retained him and want to keep more than five receivers.

Edited August 26, 2019 by OneTwoSixFive