With Luck’s retirement, what’s your expectations for the AFCS?

[dtait93]

41 minutes ago, ET80 said:

I don't think there's some huge gap between Vrabel and BOB/Marrone. He's probably better, yes - but the gap isn't significant, it's Dan Quinn vs Ron Rivera at the most. And... Frank Reich is still top dog in the division; let's not forget that, he's the Sean Payton of the group. 

When coaching is that close, you gotta look at QB. Now... there's no question on that one now, Deshaun Watson is the top of this division with no real challenger across th board in the AFCS. 

It's like when Aaron Rodgers was dragging the corpse of Mike McCarthy across the likes of Leslie Frazier/Mike Zimmer, Lovie Smith and whoever was coaching Detroit those years. McCarthy wasn't much better than any of those HCs (and was probably worse than Zimmer, TBH) but Rodgers was SIGNIFICANTLY better than Jay Cutler, Matt Stafford and whoever was the QB for Minnesota, it didn't matter - Green Bay was at the top of the division during that period.

If Indy/Jax/Tenn can land a guy like Tua, they'll compete. If they land a guy like Lawrence in 2021, they'll take the division for the long term.

Until then, the team with the better QB will typically win.

Watson is the best QB but our roster makes up for it and Vrabel gives us the edge in my eyes. It’s why we split last year when you guys should have swept us when we had Gabbert and a make-shift o-line in our first matchup. Watson is definitely dragging BOB but not to the degree that Rodgers was dragging McCarthy. Watson isn’t a near unstoppable force like Rodgers is so in this particular scenario I disagree that just because you have Watson you will typically beat us.

I think Vrabel will prove that he is that much better than BOB personally. Mariota isn’t some amazing QB but add on top of that he literally couldn’t feel his throwing hand every single game he played in after week 1 - which lead to Gabbert playing a significant amount of snaps. Add on top of that our best player on offense Walker missed the entire year, the o-line was playing musical chairs the entire year after that Miami debacle, and yet Vrabel still had this team in position to make the playoffs in week 17. If that same scenario presented itself to BOB I don’t believe for a second he puts you guys in the position Vrabel was able to put us in. He basically operated the entire season without a QB that can throw and if BOB doesn’t have Watson there to drag him week in and week out as you mentioned then I’m of the belief you guys crumble. 

[Matts4313]

19 minutes ago, ET80 said:

I know Mike Mularkey wasn't a good HC either, so back-to-back 9-7 seasons tells me the Titans have a DAMN good roster on their hands

:scratches head:

9-7 makes a damn good roster?

[ET80]

40 minutes ago, Matts4313 said:

:scratches head:

9-7 makes a damn good roster?

Mike Mularkey is a 5-11 coach at absolute best. So if a team coached by him goes 9-7, that means it's a pretty good roster.

That's how my math works on this, at least.

45 minutes ago, dtait93 said:

Watson is the best QB but our roster makes up for it and Vrabel gives us the edge in my eyes.

Your roster is good, very good - but there are places where it's a PUSH at worst, and advantage to the Texans at best.

- The Titans secondary is considerably better than the Texans secondary. No doubt.

- The Titans front seven is good, the Texans front seven is a push without Clowney, but an advantage with Clowney. Vrabel put together a fine unit to work around Watt, and he's trying to replicate it in Tennessee with Harold Landry, Rashaan Evans and Cameron Wake, and maybe they're close to matching Whitney Mercilius, Berdnardrick McKinney and Zach Cunningham. (If Clowney ends up back in Houston, then this isn't even a discussion).

- OL is Titans, running away. No argument here. (If Larmey Tunsil joins the Texans via trade, however...)

- RB, again. Titans, no real question on that.

- Titans have quality at TE, Texans have quantity at TE. I'll give this to the Titans, even with a 35 year old TE coming off injury. (I like Delaine Walker a lot). 

- WR? Absolutely goes to the Texans. Not up for any sort of debate.

- QB, we've already covered. 

- K/P? Texans have a really good K in Ka'imi Fairbairn, P is up in the air. Don't know much about the Titans K/P situation. I'll call it a push if needed, but can discuss either way.

So, I have four units going to the Titans, three to the Texans - but one of those three is the most important position in football (probably in sports) so that's got to be worth something.

45 minutes ago, dtait93 said:

It’s why we split last year when you guys should have swept us when we had Gabbert and a make-shift o-line in our first matchup.

Let's not pretend that game wasn't heavily impacted by arguably the most boneheaded play by an inactive Jadevion Clowney. If he doesn't draw that stupid Unsportsmanlike Conduct in the 4th quarter, the Texans win that game. It was a dumb, dumb, dumb penalty, and the Texans deserved to lose because of it, and they did. 

The rubber match, however? Both starting Ts were back, Marcus Mariota was quite literally perfect that day (22/23, 303, 2 TDs) but the Titans couldn't win. That's not something that inspires confidence, you should be able to win big when your passing game is getting chunk plays and not turning the ball over.

45 minutes ago, dtait93 said:

I think Vrabel will prove that he is that much better than BOB personally

Honestly, I think he will too. But I don't think he has YET. Subtle difference.

45 minutes ago, dtait93 said:

Mariota isn’t some amazing QB but add on top of that he literally couldn’t feel his throwing hand every single game he played in after week 1 - which lead to Gabbert playing a significant amount of snaps.

Deshaun Watson had a lung injury so bad, he couldn't take a flight to Jacksonville - he had to take a bus, the team doctor was worried the pressure in a plane cabin would cause his collapsed lung to implode. Yet, he still had an elite season. 

That's a significant competitive advantage - you sack a guy 62 times, you bruise his sternum, you hit him on a knee that was surgically repaired less than a year ago, and he STILL balls out. Deshaun Watson is the type of QB who hides a lot of deficiencies - without him, the Texans went 4-12. With him (and a returning JJ Watt) they went 11-5.

If football had a WAR like stat, Watson would be pretty high up on the list.

45 minutes ago, dtait93 said:

If that same scenario presented itself to BOB I don’t believe for a second he puts you guys in the position Vrabel was able to put us in.

BOB did this twice in his career... with Brock Osweiler as his QB one season, and Brian Hoyer/Ryan Mallet as his QBs in one season. He actually did it three times if you consider the Ryan Fitzpatrick/Ryan Mallet/Tom Savage/Case Keenum season in 2014.

Let that sink in.

I don't think he's a good coach at all, but everything you're using to prop up Vrabel? Yeah, BOB already did that. I don't think those are end-all be-all traits of a good coach. It's a promising start, yeah. But it's not enough to declare some great divide between two guys. 

It's a results oriented league, and Vrabel grows the gap by getting results. Taking a 9-7 team to 9-7 again is at least establishing continuity, which is a plus.

[candyman93]

This is truly a tough conference to predict. Any of the 4 teams could win and you wouldn’t be surprised (maybe Indy slightly). They all have huge question marks.

 

Houston - Offensive line

Tennessee - Quarterback

Jacksonville - Leonard Fournette and the skill position players

Indy - Quarterback

[Forge]

6 minutes ago, candyman93 said:

This is truly a tough conference to predict. Any of the 4 teams could win and you wouldn’t be surprised (maybe Indy slightly). They all have huge question marks.

 

Houston - Offensive line

Tennessee - Quarterback

Jacksonville - Leonard Fournette and the skill position players

Indy - Quarterback

Honestly, for me right now, it's not that hard. The question for me about Houston is how big of an impact is Clowney's absence going to be. The offensive line was one of the worst I had ever seen last year (them and Arizona) in pass protection. It's going to be hard to be even worse, and yet despite that, they won 11 games. I'm not sure if Howard and Scharping are going to be ready to come in and be successful, but again, hard to be worse than they were last year regardless. At least there is precedence for them to be a successful team with an offensive line that bad. I'm not sure why they can't do it again if they can stay healthy (and sure, that health is going to be a big question given the status of the offensive line, but you can say that about any number of teams - if you lose your quarterback, most teams' seasons immediately go up in flames). 

[dtait93]

3 minutes ago, ET80 said:

Your roster is good, very good - but there are places where it's a PUSH at worst, and advantage to the Texans at best.

- The Titans secondary is considerably better than the Texans secondary. No doubt.

- The Titans front seven is good, the Texans front seven is a push without Clowney, but an advantage with Clowney. 

- OL is Titans, running away. No argument here.

- RB, again. Titans, no real question on that.

- Titans have quality at TE, Texans have quantity at TE. I'll give this to the Titans, even with a 35 year old TE coming off injury. (I like Delaine Walker). 

- WR? Absolutely goes to the Texans. Not up for any sort of debate.

- QB, we've already covered. 

- K/P? Texans have a really good K in Ka'imi Fairbairn, P is up in the air. Don't know much about the Titans K/P situation. I'll call it a push if needed, but can discuss either way.

So, I have four units going to the Titans, three to the Texans - but one of those three is the most important position in football (probably in sports) so that's got to be worth something.

I agree here except for P/K. Kern is a top 5 punter at worst and Succop and KB is a wash. This easily goes to us because of Kern so imo it's 5 units Titans, 3 units Texans. We have the better roster, but I agree having the QB advantage counts for a lot...it should be a completely different category in my eyes. I view it as the overall roster category going to us, the QB category going to you, and then the coaching category as what's left.

 

8 minutes ago, ET80 said:

Let's not pretend that game wasn't heavily impacted by arguably the most boneheaded play by an inactive Jadevion Clowney. If he doesn't draw that stupid Unsportsmanlike Conduct in the 4th quarter, the Texans win that game. It was a dumb, dumb, dumb penalty, and the Texans deserved to lose because of it, and they did. 

The rubber match, however? Both starting Ts were back, Marcus Mariota was quite literally perfect that day (22/23, 303, 2 TDs) but the Titans couldn't win. That's not something that inspires confidence, you should be able to win big when your passing game is getting chunk plays and not turning the ball over.

To your first paragraph - the game shouldn't have even come down to Clowney's bonehead penalty though. We had no business even being in that game with Blaine Gabbert starting and basically our 2nd string o-line. EVERYONE, including the Titans board, chalked that game down as an L. We were something like -3 underdogs and that was with home field advantage.

To your second paragraph - I think you're mis-remembering that game. We only had 2 chunk plays the entire game and 22/23 looks nice, but Mariota really wasn't amazing that night outside of the TD pass to Davis. His other TD was a 5 yard throw to Jonnu Smith and Jonnu took care of the other 60 yards. Other than that we weren't driving down the field in chunks. We also did turn the ball over on a Watt strip sack (LaFleur thought it was a good idea to let our backup TE go 1 on 1 with him for some reason...what an idiot...and since we're talking about LaFleur he also thought it was a good idea to call a FB dive to our 3rd string TE on 4th and 1 at your guys' 10 yard line....seriously what a dumb ***). The problem in that game was Miller, who you won't have this year, and Watson running for over 200 yards on us. I don't see that being the case this year.

 

1 hour ago, ET80 said:

Deshaun Watson had a lung injury so bad, he couldn't take a flight to Jacksonville - he had to take a bus, the team doctor was worried the pressure in a plane cabin would cause his collapsed lung to implode. Yet, he still had an elite season. 

That's a significant competitive advantage - you sack a guy 62 times, you bruise his sternum, you hit him on a knee that was surgically repaired less than a year ago, and he STILL balls out. Deshaun Watson is the type of QB who hides a lot of deficiencies - without him, the Texans went 4-12. With him (and a returning JJ Watt) they went 11-5.

If football had a WAR like stat, Watson would be pretty high up on the list.

I'm not denying he's a great player and is good at playing through pain, but a lung injury doesn't effect your ability to grip and throw a football like an ulnar nerve injury does. Do you honestly think he has the season he had if his arm/hand goes numb the whole year? Your comparing apples to oranges here, especially in the context of QB's who's most important body part is their throwing arm/hand.

 

1 hour ago, ET80 said:

BOB did this, with Brock Osweiler as his QB. Let that sink in.

Well hey, maybe he is a good HC. Hopefully you guys are able to keep him around for a very long time  

[Steelersfan43]

 

[ET80]

8 hours ago, dtait93 said:

To your first paragraph - the game shouldn't have even come down to Clowney's bonehead penalty though. We had no business even being in that game with Blaine Gabbert starting and basically our 2nd string o-line. EVERYONE, including the Titans board, chalked that game down as an L. We were something like -3 underdogs and that was with home field advantage.

I don't disagree with this, but you have to look at where the Texans were at that early point in the season - they were a disorganized mess. They followed that performance up with a loss to the Giants at HOME, in a game where Eli looked vintage.

I'm not saying the game wasn't disappointing. It was. However, both teams are not reflective of that single day last year, and it should not be the barometer of who has the advantage over who.

8 hours ago, dtait93 said:

The problem in that game was Miller, who you won't have this year, and Watson running for over 200 yards on us. I don't see that being the case this year.

I'll somewhat concede to this - I said it in another thread, but one of the good thing O'Brien does is get a run game out of seemingly nothing. Before Lamar Miller, the Texans cobbled together a top half running game with guys like Alfred Blue, Jonathan Grimes and Chris Polk - for some reason, the Texans can run the ball consistently, been this way since Arian Foster in Y1 of the O'Brien era.

I'm actually thinking UDFA Damaera Crockett is going to have a Phillip Lindsay-like impact as a runner for Houston (consider this some free Fantasy advice; not sure if you're the type who picks up division rivals, I actually broke tradition this season and drafted Derrick Henry, Marlon Mack/Nyheim Hinds AND Dede Westbrook...)

8 hours ago, dtait93 said:

I'm not denying he's a great player and is good at playing through pain, but a lung injury doesn't effect your ability to grip and throw a football like an ulnar nerve injury does.

...it impacts your ability to BREATH. Which is kind of important. You ever get the wind knocked out of you? You literally feel like you're dying, it's arguably one of the worst feelings in the world (and I've blown out my knees 3x times). Every hit from the Dallas game onwards was like that, so everything - from gripping the ball to avoiding sacks in the pocket to sprinting out for positive yardage was laborious for Watson.

I think ultimately, we agree in that Watson is a competitive advantage - if anyone understands how much a franchise QB can alter the landscape, it should be AFCS fans. For two decades, we saw Payton Manning and Andrew Luck, surrounded by a few WRs and not much else - and they won, pretty convincingly that entire time.

Right now, the Texans are the only team that have a landscape-altering QB on the roster. 20 years of Manning/Luck dragging the Colts around should be all the evidence we need on that.

8 hours ago, dtait93 said:

Well hey, maybe he is a good HC. Hopefully you guys are able to keep him around for a very long time  

Sadly, this is what's going to happen. Texans will be good enough to make a push as a division champ or WC in every year, but won't ever get a bye or have a chance in the playoffs - at home or on the road. 

BOB is the Kirk Cousins of HCs. You might win with him. You'll definitely lose a few because of him. You'll never win when it matters.

That's my reality.

Ultimately though, we're losing sight of what the original argument was - you said that Vrabel is significantly better than BOB. I don't doubt he is BETTER, but I've gone on to say that the difference is nominal at this point (Vrabel is still evolving, so it could be true in a few years). I have yet to hear WHY you feel the gap is so big between the two. It seems as if you're fixated on reminding me how bad BOB is instead of telling me what Vrabel has done (and reminder, Vrabel was here in Houston before he got that HC gig in Tennessee, so I'm very familiar with what he can do and what he can't do from a coaching perspective).

[Nabbs4u]

Honestly has nothing to do with any kind of Eagle bias but I think people are sleeping on the Jags way to much with the addition of Nick Foles. 

I get the concerns about his weapons but with that Defense,  (1 yr removed from being the best in the NFL), Nick doesnt have to set the world and or record books on fire. Any 1/2 way decent QB play from him has to be an improvement from Blake Bortles? Who let's be real, not only held that team back but gave players inside that locker room no belief whatsoever he was capable of winning them a game. 

God forbid Foles is able to Run Defilippo's offense to a T and elevate those around him to a higher level. Might be a repeat of 2017 for the Jags. 

Edited August 27, 2019 by Nabbs4u

[MWil23]

I hope that the Colts enter the perennial 5-11 to 6-10 territory. They're bad, but they're not so bad that they're able to find another franchise QB for quite some time. Somewhere around Pick 7-12 limbo for the next decade should help me sleep better at night.

The shame of it is, I love Frank Reich too.

[SteelKing728]

I think the Titans have a pretty nice roster, but Marcus Mariota is awful. Even when he inevitably gets replaced by Ryan Tannehill, I still don't see them winning that division.

I don't trust Nick Foles. He was great with Philly but I think that's more so due to their system than anything. To me, I think he's a low ceiling but high floor player. That doesn't always pay off, unfortunately.

So I'll go with the Texans. Even without a true starting Runningback to help out Watson, and Matt Kalil being no better than a safety cone at LT, I think Houston has enough talent elsewhere to overcome these shortcomings and once again with the AFC South.

[dtait93]

5 hours ago, ET80 said:

I don't disagree with this, but you have to look at where the Texans were at that early point in the season - they were a disorganized mess. They followed that performance up with a loss to the Giants at HOME, in a game where Eli looked vintage.

I'm not saying the game wasn't disappointing. It was. However, both teams are not reflective of that single day last year, and it should not be the barometer of who has the advantage over who.

You guys were a disorganized mess, we were an injury-riddled mess. It’s not a barometer but it shows the difference in coaching amongst chaos.

5 hours ago, ET80 said:

..it impacts your ability to BREATH. Which is kind of important. You ever get the wind knocked out of you? You literally feel like you're dying, it's arguably one of the worst feelings in the world (and I've blown out my knees 3x times). Every hit from the Dallas game onwards was like that, so everything - from gripping the ball to avoiding sacks in the pocket to sprinting out for positive yardage was laborious for Watson.

Sorry man but a punctured lung doesn’t effect your ability to grip a football the way a numb arm/hand does lol. As far as avoiding sacks and running around sure, but I could say the same thing about Mariota who also played with a cracked vertebrae, broken rib, plantar fascia tear, sprained AC joint, two neck stingers and a strained oblique. But back to my main point, I just don’t believe Watson or any other QB has an elite season if they’re unable to feel the football in their hand. And that’s not an indictment on Watson, that’s just the reality of the injury.

5 hours ago, ET80 said:

I think ultimately, we agree in that Watson is a competitive advantage - if anyone understands how much a franchise QB can alter the landscape, it should be AFCS fans. For two decades, we saw Payton Manning and Andrew Luck, surrounded by a few WRs and not much else - and they won, pretty convincingly that entire time.

Right now, the Texans are the only team that have a landscape-altering QB on the roster. 20 years of Manning/Luck dragging the Colts around should be all the evidence we need on that.

We agree Watson is superior to the rest of the QB’s in the AFCS, but it’s way too early to declare he will change the landscape of the division. He’s put together 1 full, good year and he definitely hasn’t proven he will alter the division to the degree that Manning and Luck did. He’s for sure a competitive advantage though, no denying that. For the Titans specifically, he isn’t this unbeatable force to us that Manning and Luck were. 

5 hours ago, ET80 said:

Ultimately though, we're losing sight of what the original argument was - you said that Vrabel is significantly better than BOB. I don't doubt he is BETTER, but I've gone on to say that the difference is nominal at this point (Vrabel is still evolving, so it could be true in a few years). I have yet to hear WHY you feel the gap is so big between the two. It seems as if you're fixated on reminding me how bad BOB is instead of telling me what Vrabel has done (and reminder, Vrabel was here in Houston before he got that HC gig in Tennessee, so I'm very familiar with what he can do and what he can't do from a coaching perspective).

Lol dude your twisting what I said so hard. I never said anything about him being, “significantly” better. I said he’s better than BOB and Marrone so I think that will give us the edge. I never claimed the gap is so big between the two like your making it out  to be. A significant gap isn’t something I can say factually yet even though In time I’m of the belief that he will prove it.

Also, I did tell you what Vrabel did it wasn’t a BOB bashing session. I talked about the QB situation, the o-line shuffle, the center piece the offense was built around being lost for the year, and Vrabel - as a first time HC - still having us in position to make the playoffs in week 17. I also forget to mention our #2 WR quit on the team three weeks after the season started as another thing he had to find a way to work around. Our first matchup against you guys was a microcosm of our entire season. Everything was going wrong heading in to that game and Vrabel found a way to win. Nearly everything that could go wrong did go wrong last season (and I didn’t even get in to some of the things he had to overcome on the defensive side of the ball) and Vrabel proved he can adapt and execute in a myriad of situations. Luck was just once again our achilles heel but we won’t have to deal with him anymore.

Edited August 27, 2019 by dtait93

[SkippyX]

If I were to rank the 32 head coaches on game day, B O B and Marrone would be in the bottom 3.

• B O B loses games for his team.
  • at Tennessee last year was the best example (who wants the bye anyway?)
• Marrone's move in walking off the field in the 1st half of the AFCCG  may be the single most demoralizing and cowardly display of a coach in NFL history.
  • 1 - I don't trust my offense
  • 2 - I am afraid of Beliichick
  • 3 - I think leading 14-10 at the half vs Brady is an accomplishment

How does a player ever respect that guy after that?

[Nabbs4u]

4 hours ago, SteelKing728 said:

I don't trust Nick Foles. He was great with Philly but I think that's more so due to their system than anything. To me, I think he's a low ceiling but high floor player. That doesn't always pay off, unfortunately.

You do realize Defilippo is Running the same System ,Scheme, similar Terminology as Pederson from all reports? Now the skill players around him not being as good? OC as a Play caller not being as good? Yes, all possibilities. 

I'm just curious if Flipp has learned from his mistake as a Viking (Not running the ball enough) or Andy Reid type stubborn I need to Pass Pass Pass to set up the run. That mentality will make Foles fail miserably if he does to him what he did to Cousins. In other words, the opposite of what Doug Pederson did for Nick!

[Blackstar12]

5 hours ago, MWil23 said:

I hope that the Colts enter the perennial 5-11 to 6-10 territory. They're bad, but they're not so bad that they're able to find another franchise QB for quite some time. Somewhere around Pick 7-12 limbo for the next decade should help me sleep better at night.

The shame of it is, I love Frank Reich too.

Chris Ballard is too good of a GM to let that happen. Look at the progress he made in just two years.

Edited August 27, 2019 by Blackstar12