The Iron Chef!!

[JDBrocks]

22 minutes ago, Virginia Viking said:

Cook

O'Neill

Ngakoue

Hunter.....................................................................All will be looking for new paydays.

Cousins..................................................................Cap number will grow in relation to a shrinking team cap in 2021.  Can his contract be restructured?

Thielin....................................................................Can his contract be restructured? What's his long term production likely to be?

H. Smith.................................................................Over 30 years old in a less important position (according to some "experts"). Is it time to move on?

Rudolph.................................................................Last year as a Viking?

Reiff.......................................................................Last year as a Viking?

Who do the Vikings make a priority signing?  Who can be restructured to make more cap space?  What contracts should be jettisoned?

In my opinion, Hunter comes before Ngaouke, who is likely a one year rental.  If he has a stellar year (17 - 20 sacks) he will be priced out of the Minnesota market.  If Cousins and Thielen restructure, there's probably enough to sign Cook.  If Rudolph and Reiff leave, there's probably enough to bump O'Neill's salary.  The 2021 draft then needs to focus on OL, QB, DE and S.

When have the Vikings made a habit of giving up high draft capital for a 1 year rental? I firmly believe that it is the Vikings intention to make Hunter and Ngokoue career Vikings. I don't see that as likely at all. Cook and Rudolph are probably gone at the expense of keeping Ngokoue if it comes down to it.

[Cearbhall]

55 minutes ago, Virginia Viking said:

In my opinion, Hunter comes before Ngaouke, who is likely a one year rental.  If he has a stellar year (17 - 20 sacks) he will be priced out of the Minnesota market.

If Ngakoue collects 17+ sacks he should easily "win" the franchise tag. Paying him $14.4M would be well worth it for that kind of production. I can't imagine Harris or Cook "winning" that franchise tag over production like that.

[Guest]

10 minutes ago, Cearbhall said:

If Ngakoue collects 17+ sacks he should easily "win" the franchise tag. Paying him $14.4M would be well worth it for that kind of production. I can't imagine Harris or Cook "winning" that franchise tag over production like that.

I don't think Ngakoue will be particularly happy to be franchised.  He would seek a team willing to break the bank open for him...and I'm really doubtful that's going to be the Vikings with the number of very important decisions that will come up this off season.

[JDBrocks]

12 minutes ago, Cearbhall said:

If Ngakoue collects 17+ sacks he should easily "win" the franchise tag. Paying him $14.4M would be well worth it for that kind of production. I can't imagine Harris or Cook "winning" that franchise tag over production like that.

I'm willing to bet that there was an agreement made that the Vikings would not franchise him. That's part of the reason that he wanted out of JAX.

[swede700]

And Ngakoue agreed to the paycut in return for the Vikings' promise that they would lock him up long-term.  While there probably was no official agreement that they wouldn't franchise him, I believe it's highly unlikely that they would do so.  

[Krauser]

1 hour ago, Virginia Viking said:

Cook, O'Neill, Ngakoue, Hunter.....................................................................All will be looking for new paydays.

Cousins..................................................................Cap number will grow in relation to a shrinking team cap in 2021.  Can his contract be restructured?

Thielin....................................................................Can his contract be restructured? What's his long term production likely to be?

H. Smith.................................................................Over 30 years old in a less important position (according to some "experts"). Is it time to move on?

Rudolph.................................................................Last year as a Viking?

Reiff.......................................................................Last year as a Viking?

Who do the Vikings make a priority signing?  Who can be restructured to make more cap space?  What contracts should be jettisoned?

In my opinion, Hunter comes before Ngaouke, who is likely a one year rental.  If he has a stellar year (17 - 20 sacks) he will be priced out of the Minnesota market.  If Cousins and Thielen restructure, there's probably enough to sign Cook.  If Rudolph and Reiff leave, there's probably enough to bump O'Neill's salary.  The 2021 draft then needs to focus on OL, QB, DE and S.

Hunter's existing deal runs through 2023. He's outplayed his contract, but it's not like the team is going to rip up his deal and replace it. He'll get an early extension with a sizeable signing bonus (which will increase his cap hits going forward by the prorated amount, likely ~$4-5M per year on top of his current cap numbers).  That extension would ideally happen heading into 2022 (with 2 years left), but if Hunter has another elite season and stays healthy, they probably extend him next summer. The early extension to make up for a cheap existing deal is how the team handled Thielen, Griffen and Joseph, and worked out well for all concerned. Hunter is no diva and is unlikely to publicly complain. 

O'Neill's rookie contract runs through 2021. He'll be eligible for an extension next year and I'm sure he'll be a high priority signing. RTs make considerably less than LTs but O'Neill is widely seen to be capable of playing the left side, so he might get priced higher (same thing that happened with Lane Johnson). In either case, an extension for O'Neill heading into 2021 only increases his cap number by the prorated amount of the signing bonus applied to that year's cap (probably ~$3M). And the extension will be structured to run 5 years with low cap numbers in year 1 (2022) and maybe 2 (2023). So he won't break the bank in the short term either.

They didn't trade for Ngakoue as a rental. Spielman would never have given up 2 draft picks if that was the plan. Ngakoue and the Vikings are already likely on the same page for a contract extension, behind the scenes (they can't officially extend him until the end of the season). There's no way Ngakoue would have agreed to take the $6M pay cut he accepted to make the trade happen if he thought he was just going to end up in the same situation next year, back on the tag (and for even cheaper). Ngakoue should have a very productive year across from Hunter, pinning his ears back on 3rd downs. If he has double digit sacks but isn't truly elite (not an All Pro), he probably comes in around $20M on a long term deal. Again, that would be a 5 year extension with low cap hits in 2021 and 22, so the cap effect in the short term won't be terrible. 

Harris is an excellent deep safety. I'd much rather keep him than Cook. Safety is a valuable position (not sure who's saying otherwise), but Zimmer has a track record of finding and developing late round and UDFA talents into above average to excellent safeties (dating back to Cinci: Iloka, Sendejo, Harris and Kearse), so they may not want to pay him market rate (~$14M per year). I wanted them to extend Harris heading into 2019, when he was on his RFA tag, but at that point his price would've been more like $8-9M. The fact that he's playing on the tag this year suggests they're not close on a long-term deal. So I predict he'll walk. Harris turns 30 next year, so failing to retain him is much less of a big deal than Ngakoue, who's 4 years younger.

Cook is a very good running back, but running backs are replaceable. The team would evidently like to keep him but they reportedly haven't offered close to the floor of his value on the market (he's worth at least as much as the Mixon and Henry deals). My concern with letting him go is that they'd use too much draft capital to replace him (the 2021 1st rounder should go to DT or OL, not RB, and they don't have a 2nd round pick). But it's fine if they continue to play hardball on this negotiation. Mattison is probably only about 85% as good but most of the RB production will come from Kubiak's system, not the RB talent, so the effective drop off won't be too bad. 

They're not going to restructure Cousins' contract next year, but they might extend him. $31M for a franchise QB is the going rate. His cap number already balloons in 2022 as it is (to $45M), so there isn't any room to move money around on the current deal.. Assuming he keeps playing well and stays healthy, they'll probably extend him again, either 2 years early (2021) or heading into 2022. If they're not happy with his performance this year, they could rework his deal to add voidable years that would lower his cap numbers (especially for 2022) and draft his replacement, to take over in 2023.

Reiff is almost certainly gone next year. They were willing to move on without him this year.

Rudolph seems likely to lose snaps and targets to Irv Smith this year. If so, he probably needs to take a pay cut to stay with the team in 2021. He could be released otherwise. 

Harrison Smith is still the best player on the defense, the guy who really ties the room together. He's still playing at an elite level. I think they'll look to extend him in such a way as to lower his cap hit for 2021 and 22, with the contract running well into his mid 30s. 

 

[wcblack34]

3 hours ago, Virginia Viking said:

I am amazed at the number of posters willing to jettison a talented running back like Dalvin Cook.  The Vikings offense is based on the formula of dynamic run game and play action passing.  Those are two things that Cooks skills translate very well for.  I am doubtful that Mattison can take over Cook's production, because he doesn't have Cook's instincts.  He is a relief pitcher, not a 16 game starter.  Despite how unappreciated running backs are in the NFL these days (and, yes I use unappreciated instead of underappreciated on purpose), Cook's production is not replicable by just any old running back.  When Dalvin is on the field he is a legitimate threat to score from anywhere on the field.  While not being as productive as Kamara as a pass catcher, he has the hands to be much better than average.  He's a better runner, in my opinion, than Kamara.  He has been injured a lot his first three seasons, but odds are better than average that he doesn't miss nearly the time going forward as he's missed in the past.  Yet, it seems as if the posters here are more than willing to let him go if he doesn't bite on a low ball contract offer.  What am I missing?

My philosophy is that you can have a high priced QB or a high priced RB, but you cannot succeed with both. If the Vikings had a young stud QB on a rookie contract, heck yeah I'd keep Cook at market value. The fact of the matter is that we have a Top 12 QB that we are paying like a Top 5 QB. We have a Safety on the Franchise Tag, another one who may be in line for a raise, a new DE that we gave up picks for and who we'd presumably like to resign, another DE who is going to be due a huge raise, and a couple other high priced pieces. Running Backs are the easiest production to replace. It's been shown time and time again over the last ten years, and it's simply a matter of economics. Is Dalvin Cook better than Mattison? Most likely, but is he worth 9 or 10 million dollars a year more than Mattison? Heck no. 

[Purplepride323]

10 hours ago, wcblack34 said:

My philosophy is that you can have a high priced QB or a high priced RB, but you cannot succeed with both. If the Vikings had a young stud QB on a rookie contract, heck yeah I'd keep Cook at market value. The fact of the matter is that we have a Top 12 QB that we are paying like a Top 5 QB. We have a Safety on the Franchise Tag, another one who may be in line for a raise, a new DE that we gave up picks for and who we'd presumably like to resign, another DE who is going to be due a huge raise, and a couple other high priced pieces. Running Backs are the easiest production to replace. It's been shown time and time again over the last ten years, and it's simply a matter of economics. Is Dalvin Cook better than Mattison? Most likely, but is he worth 9 or 10 million dollars a year more than Mattison? Heck no. 

These are all questions that I’m sure Spielman and Brezinski have the answers to. I’ve been hearing that Brez is a salary cap genius and there’s no better way to prove it than to keep Cook, Ngakoue and Harris all on long-term deals. Like you said, we just traded two high picks for Ngakoue so I’m sure we plan on keeping him around for more than a year. Let’s keep in mind, by signing Harris, and Ngakoue to long term deals, it’ll actually free up cap space. Sort of like we did with Cousins’ contract earlier in the offseason. If we can free up Cook’s 10-12 mil salary I think we should keep him. I’ve said this before, RBs like Cook don’t come around often and are not easy to replace. Mattison is good but Cook is special imo. 

[babababa]

14 hours ago, JDBrocks said:

A: Cook has never been healthy. Why are the odds on his favor?

B: he was second in the league in drops last year. They forced/schemed a lot of passes to him, but he’s not a great receiver. He rarely lines up as a route runner, and isn’t as versatile as many other backs.

C : Kubiak has a proven track record of getting great, nearly league leading production. Out of low cost, non-star backs. Logically, it doesn’t make sense to get attached to a player when the scheme has proven that it creates production.

D : He’s going to cost to much for a team that is already cash strapped. 
 

I don’t think anyone here WANTS to get rid of Cook. It’s just the logical conclusion unless he is going to take a steep discount (which he shouldn’t!). In fact, it would probably be in their best interest to take another really talented RB in the first three rounds next year and keep the positional cost low, given the other high cost holes they need to fill.

(A) Cook ranked 8th in total carries last season. I remember all the TDs he scored too -- including 2 against the Saints. You must have been asleep.

(B) Cook had just as many dropped passes as McCaffrey (7) and only two more than Kamara at 5. He's lumped in with a bunch of RBs in this range. Yeah his catch percentage isn't nearly as good as McCaffrey, but we're talking about 7 total dropped passes.

However -- Cook led the league in YAC/reception...read that again and and then tell me he's not a good reciever. He might not be a great pass-catcher, but being a great receiver is more than just catching the ball. See here:

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2019/receiving_advanced.htm

(C) The scheme benefits from having a better RB. A wide-9 is going to get more pass-rushing production out of a DE but having a good speed rusher helps. It's a 2-way street. 

(D) He's going to cost too much? Says you. The team can make room to sign him if it's their prerogative. 

[babababa]

16 hours ago, Virginia Viking said:

I am amazed at the number of posters willing to jettison a talented running back like Dalvin Cook.  The Vikings offense is based on the formula of dynamic run game and play action passing.  Those are two things that Cooks skills translate very well for.  I am doubtful that Mattison can take over Cook's production, because he doesn't have Cook's instincts.  He is a relief pitcher, not a 16 game starter.  Despite how unappreciated running backs are in the NFL these days (and, yes I use unappreciated instead of underappreciated on purpose), Cook's production is not replicable by just any old running back.  When Dalvin is on the field he is a legitimate threat to score from anywhere on the field.  While not being as productive as Kamara as a pass catcher, he has the hands to be much better than average.  He's a better runner, in my opinion, than Kamara.  He has been injured a lot his first three seasons, but odds are better than average that he doesn't miss nearly the time going forward as he's missed in the past.  Yet, it seems as if the posters here are more than willing to let him go if he doesn't bite on a low ball contract offer.  What am I missing?

Yeah, I don't know man. It's downright offensive because the dude is electrifying. Damn...and I just found out he was #1 in the league in YAC/reception.

Watch him against Dallas on some of these screens.

 

[JDBrocks]

5 hours ago, babababa said:

(A) Cook ranked 8th in total carries last season. I remember all the TDs he scored too -- including 2 against the Saints. You must have been asleep.

(B) Cook had just as many dropped passes as McCaffrey (7) and only two more than Kamara at 5. He's lumped in with a bunch of RBs in this range. Yeah his catch percentage isn't nearly as good as McCaffrey, but we're talking about 7 total dropped passes.

However -- Cook led the league in YAC/reception...read that again and and then tell me he's not a good reciever. He might not be a great pass-catcher, but being a great receiver is more than just catching the ball. See here:

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2019/receiving_advanced.htm

(C) The scheme benefits from having a better RB. A wide-9 is going to get more pass-rushing production out of a DE but having a good speed rusher helps. It's a 2-way street. 

(D) He's going to cost too much? Says you. The team can make room to sign him if it's their prerogative. 

I get it, you love Cook. None of what I said is untrue. 

i don’t understand why you are taking this so personally.

[CriminalMind]

I like cook, but i prioritize extensions to alot of players/positions over him including Hunter, Yannick, O'Neil, Harrison, maybe even Harris.

I'm hoping to see a bunch more volume for Mattison this season, even if/as Cook is playing/available, so that Vikings fully know if they need to possibly use a 1st to replace Cook in the 2021 draft. I certainly think Mattison can give you sufficient production, where you can feel confident in him as a starting RB next year

[Cearbhall]

9 hours ago, Purplepride323 said:

Let’s keep in mind, by signing Harris, and Ngakoue to long term deals, it’ll actually free up cap space.

Neither Harris nor Ngakoue currently count anything against the cap next year. Signing them to any deal can only cost cap space. There is zero possibility of it freeing up cap space.

[babababa]

5 hours ago, JDBrocks said:

I get it, you love Cook. None of what I said is untrue. 

i don’t understand why you are taking this so personally.

You said he was never healthy -- I said he was 8th in total carries last season -- Does that mean you were right? If you were right practically every running back in the league last year wasn't healthy.

You said he isn't a great receiver, and I acknowledged he wasn't a great pass-catcher, but was 1st in the league in YAC/reception. 

I countered your point on scheme.

Reiff can be cut next year. Harris can be let go. Dead money for Diggs and Rhodes will be off the books. There will be money to prioritize Cook. 

 

Edited September 3, 2020 by babababa

[JDBrocks]

15 minutes ago, babababa said:

You said he was never healthy -- I said he was 8th in total carries last season -- Does that mean you were right? If you were right practically every running back in the league last year wasn't healthy.

You said he isn't a great receiver, and I acknowledged he wasn't a great pass-catcher, but was 1st in the league in YAC/reception. 

I countered your point on scheme.

Reiff can be cut next year. Harris can be let go. Dead money for Diggs and Rhodes will be off the books. There will be money to prioritize Cook. 

 

Has he ever played a full season? The answer is no, and in many of the games he has played he's been less than healthy.

His average depth of target was -1.5 yards. He had 7 drops on 63 targets last year. The other guys that you mentioned had 50-100%+ more targets. So he doesn't run routes, and has questionable hands. Seems like they schemed his most of his YAC via screens based on ADOT. He's incredibly explosive with the ball in his hands, but he's not a great receiver. 

The salary cap will go down next year. Of course players can be let go, but given the negotiating stalemate this year it seems like the Vikings have a price point and won't prioritize signing him for anything more than that. They already restructured Reiff. I don't know what to tell you if you think Cook is more valuable based on one sorta healthy year of pretty good production than some of the other guys that need deals.

I really like Cook too, but it seems like you are grasping here.