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Weekly Bets Thread


BStanRamFan
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For tonight: 

 

Allen O2.5 pass TD’s +170 2U - that’s crazy value for what I think is at worst a 50-50 prop.   The value is so good I’ll go 2U here.  
 

Sanders O54.5 receiving yards - when it’s a zone D Beasley soaks up a lot of the looks.   But in a man scheme Sanders becomes the number 2 guy.   Easy call.   
 

Henry O13.5 receiving yards - if there was a catches prop out yet I’d go there.   I know AJ Brown and Julio Jones likely play - but the backup RB are banged up and screens / outlets are a clear way to attack the BUF D given how strong they are downfield.   Henry’s actually become a regular part of the pass game.   That number seems 7-8 yards too low.  
 

BOL! 

Edited by Broncofan
Going 2U with TD prop, so no need to risk more on Allen, rushing prop off the books
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I have a big ML parlay to pay four figures with the only remaining leg is bills ML. If I didn't have that parlay, I'd be all over buf -6

I'm debating hedging with Titans ML but I think I may play the over as a correlated hedge. Titans aren't winning a low scoring game with that defense against the bills. I am hoping to win both 

Give me the diggs/Sanders over yards. Feels like diggs breakout game. 

AJB receiving yards is in the low 50s? Considering that but may just stick to diggs/Sanders 

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24 minutes ago, N4L said:

I have a big ML parlay to pay four figures with the only remaining leg is bills ML. If I didn't have that parlay, I'd be all over buf -6

I'm debating hedging with Titans ML but I think I may play the over as a correlated hedge. Titans aren't winning a low scoring game with that defense against the bills. I am hoping to win both 

Give me the diggs/Sanders over yards. Feels like diggs breakout game. 

AJB receiving yards is in the low 50s? Considering that but may just stick to diggs/Sanders 

What the odds of a Titans ML win?   If it's +220, you could bet 10 percent of your implied winnings and guarantee a 22 percent profit no matter what.


If you want to get REALLY cute, wait until game starts, and then the first time BUF takes a lead, you get even better implied ML odds.   When you're playing a Dog as the last leg, it's what I do, because the payout is so bad otherwise.   It's why any last legs of a parley are almost always a favorite if it's a ML bet.  Sets up the low-cost, easy hedge for guaranteed $, without sacrificing a big part of the profit.

Edited by Broncofan
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Since we're on the concept of hedging, a few points for those who haven't considered it:

1.  To do it, you need multiple books, or an online book like DK, FD, Bovada, that will take bets on both sides (those also take multi-leg parleys, unlike others which limit the # legs).

2.  Hedging every parley is NOT the right move.   In the long run, hedging loses money, unless you can do bets that have the chance of winning both sides (like having PIT -4.5 as the last leg, and being able to bet SEA +12.5 live in-game for 20 percent of the other parley's implied winnings- those I'm all over, best case you can win 120 percent, worst case you win 20 or 80 percent, either way you're a winner).

3.  Where you should hedge - when the winnings will SIGNIFICANTLY impact your bankroll, or if not the bankroll, you desperately NEED that $ (in which case I'd wonder why your bankroll is that high vs. your need, lol), or if you are EMOTIONALLY invested in the win (IE - losing the parley after a long losing streak).

I generally hedge no more than 20 percent of my winnings, and if I can get plus money, even better.   In @N4L case, I can hedge 10 percent and guarantee a 22 percent win.   I think BUF wins, so I don't consider a 20 percent hedge for 44 percent safety, but if I was less sure, my hedge amount would increase.  But never more than 20 percent (unless I was drunk when I made the bet and regret that last leg - like the dude who bet the DET ML over GB MNF as the last leg for his $10-into-300K parley several weeks ago - happy for him that he took the payout for 100K+ instead lol).

_________________________________

So if you invest with a $500 bankroll, and you've got 1K in winnings on the line - HEDGE   

If you have 10K, and are about to win 3K, but you've been on a losing streak for eons and a L on the last leg tilts you - HEDGE.     

If you have a 10K bankroll and you've got a 2K parley on the last leg, and need to get the wife a birthday present with that $ - you've got a gambling PROBLEM.  But also...HEDGE. 

The final point - parleys are losing plays overall, please, please, please - only bet <10 percent of your weekly stake on parleys.  Place the bets you believe in single bets.   But if you're lucky enough to get a parley in play and have only 1 leg left (I love doing this), then consider the above, I hope it helps.

Edited by Broncofan
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57 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

What the odds of a Titans ML win?   If it's +220, you could bet 10 percent of your implied winnings and guarantee a 22 percent profit no matter what.

Titans ML is +212

My parlay was roughly +1000 odds. so betting 10% of the profit would double my risk, but would lock in 56% of profit? That percentage feels wrong. Lets say it was $100, now my total risk is $200, but if the titans win I will have $312 coming back. 112/200 = 56%

Youve convinced me to do the smart thing, even though I am very tempted to let it ride. 10% hedge it is. Doesnt preclude me from playing the over. I may even double down on the bills or titans depending on how it goes

I do really like the Bills tonight. I see no reason why their offense shouldnt just light up the titans defense. Should be able to move the ball up and down the field.  

McDermott is one of the best defensive coaches in the league. Titans new OC has done some very baffling things, for example the titans rarely use play action, and they hardly ever use pre snap motion. Titans certainly have some horses on offense, but I think the bills defense is just so fundamentally sound with their assignment based defense that its going to be hard for the titans to keep up while their defense is getting torched 

Last week I did a heavy Colts +14, Tampa, KC, DAL +3 teaser. This week I am going to do a BUF, LVR +3, NO +1 teaser. Philly is a disaster even though they have a long week, they are poorly coached. Raiders should light up their secondary. Sean payton off a bye against seattle without russ? Sign me up. 

Edited by N4L
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7 minutes ago, N4L said:

Titans ML is +212

My parlay was roughly +1000 odds. so betting 10% of the profit would double my risk, but would lock in 56% of profit? That percentage feels wrong. Lets say it was $100, now my total risk is $200, but if the titans win I will have $312 coming back. 112/200 = 56%

Youve convinced me to do the smart thing, even though I am very tempted to let it ride. 10% hedge it is. Doesnt preclude me from playing the over. I may even double down on the bills or titans depending on how it goes

I do really like the Bills tonight. I see no reason why their offense shouldnt just light up the titans defense. Should be able to move the ball up and down the field.  

McDermott is one of the best defensive coaches in the league. Titans new OC has done some very baffling things, for example the titans rarely use play action, and they hardly ever use pre snap motion. Titans certainly have some horses on offense, but I think the bills defense is just so fundamentally sound with their assignment based defense that its going to be hard for the titans to keep up while their defense is getting torched 

I really like the Bills tonight too FWIW.   At your +1000, then yes, you're guaranteed a W.   

I look at this way - you guarantee a W with only 10 percent of your winnings lost.  But given its "only" 10-1, I'm guessing it's not stack-altering $ you're betting here either, or what's at stake.   To be honest, your win may not quite fit my criteria (more can you live the parley dying if TEN pulls off the improbable W).

What I might be tempted in your position to do - wait until BUF is up 7-0, then the odds are likely +350, or if you can, bet alternate line of TEN +6 then at +150/200 odds (if your book allows this), then you'd be trying to get both sides.  Obviously if you try to bet TEN +6 now, you have to commit more $ to get a guaranteed W.    Of course, it all goes to **** if BUF doesn't take a 7-point lead.  That's the risk.

 

 

 

Edited by Broncofan
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Put together this fun little parlay 

Over 49.5 rec yards for AJ

Over 79.5 rushing yards Henry

Over 35 rec yards 

At least 1 passing TD for Tanny

Henry anytime score

Bills at least 2 passing TDs

Over 69.5 rec yards Diggs

+700 so let’s see if this can hit will be fun to follow

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6 minutes ago, SaveOurSonics said:

Where in the world are you getting this for +170? I'm getting it at +100 lol

That was 10 hours ago - it got steamed right away to +140 30 mins after I posted, and now down to +110 or even money.   Really pays to check the odds as soon as they open.

Thing is, BUF is implied to score 30+ points (O30.5 team total) - which means 4 TD's in most scenarios.   It should be a -110 scenario IMO in that scenario - instead, it's almost being paid out as a 37 percent probability - that's a massive edge.    

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6 minutes ago, SaveOurSonics said:

@N4L Why not just take Titans +6.5? That's what I did with Ravens/Colts. Was able to hit the original parlay and the hedge. I think this gives you the most opportunity to hedge losses and maximize gains. 

Mainly because it would mean I would have to risk a lot more to be an effective hedge and because I think the Bills will ultimately win/cover

I originally was going to let it ride. I still like the correlated hedge with the over for a chance to win both

Taking a home dog on MNF is good strategy over long periods of time, but titans defense is just so bad its hard for me to see it happening against Josh Allen, with those weapons, with those coaches

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