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Weekly Bets Thread


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Just now, NYRaider said:

Agreed that's a game I am staying away from this weekend either way.

I'd stay away from the Browns at -3.5, but I just can't help but feel like that over/under is just too low. Maybe Vegas knows something that I don't (probably). Even the weather Sunday isn't all that bad (60 degrees, doesn't appear to be any precipitation)

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1 hour ago, MWil23 said:

I'd stay away from the Browns at -3.5, but I just can't help but feel like that over/under is just too low. Maybe Vegas knows something that I don't (probably). Even the weather Sunday isn't all that bad (60 degrees, doesn't appear to be any precipitation)

Hopkins is likely out, Edmonds might be out as well.

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3 hours ago, NYRaider said:

I had Philly +7 on 1 parlay and +7.5 on another, couldn't believe that they went for 2, lol.

Philly ALWAYS goes for 2 there

Every NFL team should (basically) ALWAYS go for 2 when down 14

If you get the 2pts, then and xp wins the game for you the next touchdown. If you dont, then you can go for 2 again to tie the game. Chances are really good that you go at least 50% on conversions 

3 hours ago, NYRaider said:

Kyler's banged up

Yes, his throwing shoulder no less. 

We saw what happens the last two years when Kyler is hurt.

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16 hours ago, N4L said:

Philly ALWAYS goes for 2 there

Every NFL team should (basically) ALWAYS go for 2 when down 14

If you get the 2pts, then and xp wins the game for you the next touchdown. If you dont, then you can go for 2 again to tie the game. Chances are really good that you go at least 50% on conversions 

Yes, his throwing shoulder no less. 

We saw what happens the last two years when Kyler is hurt.

 

Shouldn't teams always go for 2 full stop? Unless you scored a TD to tie the game in the last few minutes and the 1 puts you ahead.

 

Go for 2: Expected value = 2 x 63% = 1.26

Go for 1: Expected value = 1 x 90% = 0.9.

 

Between the XP getting moved back and the offenses getting better at 2 point conversions, I think going for 2 should be the default play.

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On 10/15/2021 at 12:44 AM, Broncofan said:

So building on the above, which I have in the bank, adding 1 dog & 1 favorite play, and a bunch of player props, and for now, only 1 TD prop (pending) that interests me:

ATS/RACE

CIN -3 @ DET -110 - already placed 2 days ago 

LAC ML @ BAL +160 (now +125 so great value), RACE to 25/30/35 at +210, +350 & +550 - already placed 2 days ago

LV ML @ DEN +160, RACE to 15/20/25 at +150, +240 & +375 - already placed 2 days ago

Adding:

DAL -3 @ NE -110 - if the spread gets to -3, then I'm all over this.  Only 4 games without TB12 where NE is the home dog, and in 2 of them, pouring rain.   No Gilmore either for them.   This IMO is 2-3 points too low.    If it stays at -3.5, I'll have to pass.   EDIT:  And DAL -3 is here.

ARI ML @ CLE +160, RACE to 20/25/30 at +160, +260 & +400 - this is IMO an even matchup, even with C Hudson out - but CLE’s exhausted, and beat up.    I think it's close to a pick 'em, but that value of +160 and RACE payouts is huge, because if ARI gets up, CLE has a hard time catching up. 

Risk - 9.5U (1U for each straight bet, and 0.5 for each RACE bet)  

 

PLAYER PROPS (-110 unless specified)

James Robinson O72.5 rushing yards (now 80.5) - already placed, agree with prior takes.

Jonathan Taylor O79.5 rushing yards (now 80.5) - placed before TNF, with that heartbreaking loss, don't see Indy laying the foot off the gas until Taylor's put the game away.

Darrell Henderson O74.5 rushing yards (now 76.5) - placed also before TNF.   Positive game script, and a bottom 5 rush D and rush DL.   Sign.  Me.  Up

DeAndre Swift O4.5 catches (PENDING) - until Hockenson is healthy, and with Cephus now on IR, I'll even consider O5.5 at big plus money.    If it's O5.5 at even money....meh.  

Dan Arnold catch/yardage props (PENDING x2) - no props yet, but I'm guessing it's +money at O3.5 catches, and low 30's yardage - and I'm ALL over it.  I suspect they will focus on J-Rob (but not succeed), and taking away Marvin Jones and Laviska Shenault.   Meyer's O absolute peppers the TE, so I expect Vegas odds won't catch up after being at O2.5 for a while.  If it's 4.5/40's, then I'll have to reconsider, but waiting for now.

Ja'Marr Chase O?? yards (PENDING) - as long as it's sub 80, I'm in.     Top target for Burrow, and ridiculous chemistry with deep game, and YAC monster.   If it's more than 80....sorry, I'm out.  I'm hopefuly it's closer to 70.

Tyreek Hilll O??yards (PENDING) - as long as it's around 80, I'm in.    Bounceback spot, and awful pass D vs. chunk play WR's.   

Tim Patrick O4.5 catches +100 - he's a 8+ target reliable guy, and the LV secondary is in major trouble, Gruden or no Gruden.  I also believe LV is winning this so I expect catchup in the 2H.  Either way, the value here is nuts.  

Jakobi Meyers O.5.5 catches +125 - the NE top target guy.    Positive game script, and Diggs doesn't follow many guys in the slot.   Great value again.

Brandin Cooks O5.5 catches +120 - disregard the lower numbers - he's still a target hog.  Difference being, the IND D won't hold him back, but I also expect they will be winning, and create the same kind of positive game script BAL WR's (and TE Andrews got).   Easy call here.

Risk - 11U if Swift/Arnold x2/Chase/Hill targets are as advertised.  Could be as little as 6U too.

 


TD PROPS

Dan Arnold (+450 / +7000 0.8U/0.4U) - if he's much lower than +300...less interest.  But with MIA's D concentrated at stopping WR's, Arnold's got a great chance.  He got 3 targets inside the 10 yard line.  That's the kind of volume I want at those odds.  As he's not hit yet, I expect them to stay similar to that hopefully.   EDIT:  odds virtually unchanged from last week, fantastic - Sign. Me. Up.

Risk - 1.2U 

 

So far I've posted 15.7 in locked in bets, with 6U more I'll commit to if the #'s are as advertised, with value payouts.  That 21.7U is about the top limit I'm playing for this week.   Don't want to force picks (and I'll lay off JAX ML as a result, and Lamb yardage plays lol). 

Will update once odds are posted...BOL!

 

 

 

2021 - WEEK 1 - WEEK 6 with TNF:

ATS 18-11; 3-3 with RACE to 15/20/25/30 (underdogs only), net +23.9U profit

Player props - 61-48, +12.0U profit

TD - 6-15, but playing all longshot TD props, with +3300 2-TD Corey Davis hitting Week 1, makes this +24.4U so far 

Net balance:  +60.3U

(Week 1 - +43.8U     Week 2 - -1.6U.    Week 3 - -1.3U     Week 4 - +12.2U   Week 5 - 9.0U Week 6 - -1.8U)

ADDITIONS
 

Adding Waller O5.5 catches +110 - Den D can’t match up against TE.  
 

Adding Waddle O4.5 catches +100 - no Parker, no Gesicki this wee and Tua’s back.   He loves Waddle.   Hoping the UK game goes better than last week lol (with Waddle, Arnold O3.5 & O37.5 and J-Rob O72.5, and Arnold TD props).   

Adding Ja'Marr Chase TD +150 / +800 2+ at 1.2U/0.6U - that's too high, given what we know about Burrow / Chase.   


CONFIRMED

Chase came out at O76.5 so that’s on the board.  
 

Arnold came out at O3.5 -110 (sad at no plus money) & 37.5 and I went there.  Interestingly the 2+ TD adjusted to +5000 (and b4 it was +6600, correction).   Boo on that going forward.  

 

DROPS 


Hill came out at O82.5 that’s not quite at threshold so with Chase at a better number I’ll pass.   Also keeps my stake the same with Walller added.  
 

Taking Patrick off the prop list - more review says Hayward will play more against him than I thought.  

 

 

STILL UNDECIDED 

No Swift catch prop yet. 

Edited by Broncofan
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Sunday's slate now in, with Swift's catch total pending - writeup for reasoning on page 117:

ATS/RACE (0.5U)

UK game

JAX ML +140, Race to 20/25 

 

1 PM games

CIN -3 @ DET -110 

LAC ML @ BAL +160 (now +125 so great value), RACE to 25/30/35 at +210, +350 & +550 

 

4 PM games 

ARI ML @ CLE +160, RACE to 20/25/30 at +160, +260 & +400 

LV ML @ DEN +160, RACE to 15/20/25 at +150, +240 & +375

DAL -3 @ NE -110

Risk - 11.5U

 

PLAYER PROPS (-110 unless specified)

UK game

James Robinson O72.5 rushing yards (now 80.5) 

Jaylen Waddle O4.5 catches +100 (ADDED OCT 16) 

Dan Arnold O3.5 catches, O36.5 yards 

 

1 PM games

Jonathan Taylor O79.5 rushing yards (now 80.5)

Brandin Cooks O5.5 catches +120 

Darrell Henderson O74.5 rushing yards (now 76.5) 

DeAndre Swift O34.5 receiving yards   

Ja'Marr Chase O76.5 yards

 

4 PM games

Jakobi Meyers O.5.5 catches +125 

Darren Waller O5.5 catches +100

 

Risk - 11U 

 


TD PROPS

Ja'marr Chase (+150 / +800 - 1.2U / 0.6 U)

Dan Arnold (+450 / +6600 - 1.6U /  0.8U

Risk - 4.2U

 

TOTAL SUNDAY RISK - 26.2U

 

2021 - WEEK 1 - WEEK 6 with TNF:

ATS 18-11; 3-3 with RACE to 15/20/25/30 (underdogs only), net +23.9U profit

Player props - 61-48, +12.0U profit

TD - 6-15, but playing all longshot TD props, with +3300 2-TD Corey Davis hitting Week 1, makes this +24.4U so far 

Net balance:  +60.3U

(Week 1 - +43.8U     Week 2 - -1.6U.    Week 3 - -1.3U     Week 4 - +12.2U   Week 5 - 9.0U Week 6 - -1.8U)

Edited by Broncofan
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@KhanYouDigIt 

I am a believer tomorrow on Jaguars ML. 

Reasoning: 

• DeVante Parker/Xavien Howard are both out and Byron Jones is questionable. Plus this will be Tua's first game back. 

• The Dolphins offense hasn't scored more than 18 points in regulation in any game this season and 14 points came in garbage time vs the Colts, 8 came on a miracle play against us, and 7 came in garbage time against Tampa.

• They can't stop the run and James Robinson has been balling.

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1 minute ago, NYRaider said:

@KhanYouDigIt 

I am a believer tomorrow on Jaguars ML. 

Reasoning: 

• DeVante Parker/Xavien Howard are both out and Byron Jones is questionable. Plus this will be Tua's first game back. 

• The Dolphins offense hasn't scored more than 18 points in regulation in any game this season and 14 points came in garbage time vs the Colts, 8 came on a miracle play against us, and 7 came in garbage time against Tampa.

• They can't stop the run and James Robinson has been balling.

It can go either way. It’s hard to have confidence in a team that has lost 20 straight.

The good thing is Trevor is getting better every week and James Robinson is a stud. 

If Robinson gets 25 carries +, I think we win.

 

 

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some of my bets this week:

KC -6.5, Dal -4.5, LAC + 3.5, HOU +10

HOU/IND O 43.5, CIN/DET U 48

Hunt U 116.5 Rush + REC yards,  J Jefferson O 72, D. Mills O 220, D. Adams U 98, M. Andrews O 60, Ekeler O 42 REC, J. Robinson O 73

parlays:

HOU/IND O 43.5, KC ML, DAL ML, PIT ML (was +480 iirc)

Jefferson O 72, KC, Rams, Hunt U 116 (around +600 iirc)

 

Edited by 11sanchez11
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