Weekly Bets Thread

[Broncofan]

Josh Reynolds +650 TD and D'Andre Swift 3 catches in first drive.   LFG!

[Broncofan]

45 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

Josh Reynolds +650 TD and D'Andre Swift 3 catches in first drive.   LFG!

Right on cue, Swift gets hurt - that's a killer to the DET ML / RACE props, and obv, the 2 Swift props (literally 3 catches on first 3 DET O plays).   Dammit.    Gotta hope for Mooney / Reynolds TD's to help swing this, and hope DET can get short fields to win game / RACE.   Such a brutal injury.

[agarcia34]

Zeke over 67.5 rushing/Waller over 66.5/Carr over 260.5/Zeke TD +750

Edited November 25, 2021 by agarcia34

[Broncofan]

7 hours ago, Broncofan said:

OK so will change the format for bets, and just list today's plays....please note all DET-based plays will be pulled if Goff is not active, but here goes:

TURKEY DAY PROPS

CHI @ DET

DET ML +150 (now +125), RACE to 20/25 (+200/375) - covered before

D'Andre Swift O4.5 recs +130, O33.5 rec yards - he's become their bellcow since Dan Campbell took over playcalling, and a target hog.   

Darnell Mooney O57.5 rec yards - on the flip side, Mooney's been the guy all year, and got a ridiculous 16 targets last week   His O4.5 is -130, so I'll just roll with the yards.

D'Andre Swift +150 TD / +800 2+ TD's (1.0U/0.5U) - breaking my long-shot parameters given how much use Swift gets, and a CHI D without Hicks or Mack.

Darnell Mooney +180 TD / +1200 2+ TD's (0.8U/0.4U) - same idea here, facing DET's secondary.

Josh Reynolds +650 TD / +8000 2+ TD (0.6U/0.3U) - if Goff plays, this is his past LAR connection, who's also their biggest WR EZ threat, and who's run the most routes & played the most snaps.    Gotta take a stab here.

 

 

Man, that was a brutal game, because the Swift injury affected 6 props - the ML & 2 RACES, and Swift's catch/yard & TD prop.    At the very least, 2/6 hit easily, and not hard to think the DET O output (1 TD, and driving on the 3rd into the CHI 30) would have been a lot higher with Swift. Oh well.

The other part - with the O contracted, no more chances for the Reynolds +8000 2+ TD prop to hit.   Swift doesn't get hurt, could have been a massive day.

Still, with Reynolds +650 for 0.6U, and Mooney's yardage prop hitting - it's only a 2.2U loss.   Could have been FAR better...but given Swift's injury literally took out 6 props, it's survivable.  
 

On to DAL-BUF, only have Schultz O49.5 receiving yards, won't add any last-minute, got way more invested in BUF-NO, and I'll keep it that way. 

Edited November 25, 2021 by Broncofan

[SaveOurSonics]

Keeping it pretty light at this point. Would love for my book to release some Matt Breida props. 

 

Just placed bets for Boys/Bills ML parlay and Dak Prescott u268 pass yards. 

Eyeing Dawson Knox O3.5 catches, Singletary O36 rush yards, and whatever Breida props come my way for the next contest. 

[Broncofan]

Only had Schultz O49.5 before for this game, but with Waller likely out rest of game, going to go DAL +150 live ML for 2U....

[Nozizaki]

On 11/23/2021 at 4:45 PM, Nozizaki said:

This is feeling like the only lock of the week, which makes me think it'll be a massive upset for the Raiders.

Damn, I called it. Good thing I took the Raiders (+7.0). Just felt like the big get right game for Vegas.

Unrelated: 49ers (-3.0) vs Minnesota is the stay away game for me. This is a spot that the Vikings typically come out flat/play poorly after putting together one of their best games of the season. The only bet I'd consider is the under.

[Broncofan]

On 11/25/2021 at 8:43 AM, Broncofan said:

 

•  

Posted yesterday at 08:43 AM (edited)

OK so will change the format for bets, and just list today's plays....please note all DET-based plays will be pulled if Goff is not active, but here goes:

TURKEY DAY PROPS

CHI @ DET

DET ML +150 (now +125), RACE to 20/25 (+200/375) - covered before

D'Andre Swift O4.5 recs +130, O33.5 rec yards - he's become their bellcow since Dan Campbell took over playcalling, and a target hog.   

Darnell Mooney O57.5 rec yards - on the flip side, Mooney's been the guy all year, and got a ridiculous 16 targets last week   His O4.5 is -130, so I'll just roll with the yards.

D'Andre Swift +150 TD / +800 2+ TD's (1.0U/0.5U) - breaking my long-shot parameters given how much use Swift gets, and a CHI D without Hicks or Mack.

Darnell Mooney +180 TD / +1200 2+ TD's (0.8U/0.4U) - same idea here, facing DET's secondary.

Josh Reynolds +650 TD / +8000 2+ TD (0.6U/0.3U) - if Goff plays, this is his past LAR connection, who's also their biggest WR EZ threat, and who's run the most routes & played the most snaps.    Gotta take a stab here.

 

LV @ DAL

No DAL WR props are out with news on Lamb not yet out yet, so limited card so far...

Dalton Schultz O49.5 rec yards - pretty simple no matter if Lamb plays or not - he's either the #2 or #3 target, and likely the #2 target regardless.    So I'll take a stab here, he passed it vs. a much tougher KC D in the same situation, I expect better results than last week, too.

 

BUF @ NO

Josh Allen O2.5 pass TD props aren't out yet, if they were, I'd take them if the were +130 or better.    Waiting for now

Dawson Knox O3.5 recs +110 - He's Allen's security blanket, and still gets RZ looks.   I'd project 8+ targets, and 5-6 catches as a floor.   Gotta take the plus money.

Manny Sanders O3.5 recs +140 -  I still think Diggs gets his work, even facing Lattimore - but there's no doubt better matchups will be with Sanders, Knox & Beasley.   Beasley's still dinged up, and when it's man, Sanders thrives - so this plus money matchup is too good to pass up.

Taysom Hill TD +400 / +4000 2+ (1.0U / 0.5U) -  no Kamara, and now it seems Mark Ingram is VERY iffy.   If Hill is inactive, this bet voids, but as long as he's active, have to believe he becomes the GL weapon for running.   At those odds, have to take a strong play here. 

Juwan Johnson TD +600 / +7500 2+ (0.6U / 0.3U) - posted from before

 

 

On 11/25/2021 at 4:06 PM, Broncofan said:

Man, that was a brutal game, because the Swift injury affected 6 props - the ML & 2 RACES, and Swift's catch/yard & TD prop.    At the very least, 2/6 hit easily, and not hard to think the DET O output (1 TD, and driving on the 3rd into the CHI 30) would have been a lot higher with Swift. Oh well.

The other part - with the O contracted, no more chances for the Reynolds +8000 2+ TD prop to hit.   Swift doesn't get hurt, could have been a massive day.

Still, with Reynolds +650 for 0.6U, and Mooney's yardage prop hitting - it's only a 2.2U loss.   Could have been FAR better...but given Swift's injury literally took out 6 props, it's survivable.  
 

On to DAL-BUF, only have Schultz O49.5 receiving yards, won't add any last-minute, got way more invested in BUF-NO, and I'll keep it that way. 

Well, the only good news is that along with my live ML bet for the Cowboys which lost (but they got to OT, so I can't complain, they had their shot), Schultz missed by 3 yards (and had 4 targets go his way the last 2 drives, but no luck) - way it goes, that's -3.0U for LV-DAL.

On the BUF-NO front, Taysom played 0 snaps, so the TD prop voided - and I was able to get Josh Allen at O2.5 +140 before the game started.   Juwan Johnson didn't sniff the EZ (got a ton of snaps, but also got asked to block with Trautman on IR - ugh).   Sanders & Knox both got to 3 catches before the 4Q - and then the game was such a blowout, the Bills shut the pass game down.  Way it goes, that's part of the risk.   Still, with only Allen hitting, that's -1.5U for BUF-NO.

So that's an ugly -6.7U day for Turkey Day - ah well, that's the game sometimes.   Regroup, and get 'em on Sunday (although I can't resist a little football and did put down OSU -8 at 2.2U to win 2U for Saturday).   BOL!

 

2021 - WEEK 1 - WEEK 12 THANKSGIVING:

ATS 33-29; 9-12 with RACE to 15/20/25/30 (underdogs only), net +30.1U profit (taking dog ML & RACE's really pays off even with barely going over 50 percent ATS).

Player props - 109-103, +21.6U profit (thank you 8U on D'Ernst Johnson Week 7 TNF vs. DEN at +money, J-Taylor on SNF @ SF, and Damien Harris on TNF @ ATL for another 4U each)

TD - 15-44, but playing all longshot TD props, with Corey Davis +3300 2-TD hitting Week 1 & now Pat Friermuth +2500 2-TD, makes this +24.1U so far 

Net balance:  +75.8U

(Week 1 - +43.8U     Week 2 - -1.6U.    Week 3 - -1.3U     Week 4 - +12.2U   Week 5 - +9.0U  Week 6 - +8.2U   Week 7 - +15.7U  Week 8 - -18.6U <ouch>  Week 9 - +13.8U Week 10 - -4.6U Week 11 - +5.9U Week 12 (TG) - -6.7U)

Edited November 26, 2021 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

OK for Sunday, looking to bounce back, not many player props (but most of them are for + money), and a pretty full slate of ATS/ML & RACE plays...

SUNDAY

ATS/ML & RACE (0.5U each for RACE)

EARLY

TEN +6.5 @ NE - I know, I know, TEN is decimated, NE is on a roll - how on earth do I roll this way?  Again, I'll point out that TEN as dogs are kings....and incredibly disappointing as favorites, and why I've pretty much faded / avoided them as favorites.  If I had REAL conviction, I'd hit the +240 ML and the 20/25 RACE for +250 / +450 lol.   Not there yet, but I'll take a stab at TEN with points for sure.    If Turkey Day goes real well, then I may add RACE to 20/25 as well, but not there yet.   EDIT:  With news AJ Brown is very iffy, going to have to back off this one.

IND ML +150 vs. TAM, RACE to 20 / 25 / 30 (+150 / +250 / +450) - PENDING VEA INJURY NEWS - this is simple; if Vita Vea is there, it makes this less appealing, but if Vea is missing, the TAM run D becomes very beatable (NYG's OL is awful, so couldn't take advantage, but better OL's can).    I also think as much as Wentz is prone to massive mistakes, unlike NYG, IND won't be afraid to pepper Michael Pittman when they do need to pass (Pittman's a core DFS play this week).   IND has a pass funnel D, so this could absolutely be a shootout - but for now, I'll stick with 20/25 as "safer" RACE plays (if there's such a thing).  EDIT SAT PM:  With news that both Vea and Devin White are true GTD's, I'm willing to take the ML & RACE shot, and I'll add the RACE to 30 pts, too.

PHI -3.5 @ NYG - I'm disappointed Jason Garrett got fired, because frankly, if he was calling the plays, I'd have taken an alternate spread of PHI -6.5 for +150.    I have a lot more respect for Freddie Kitchens, but the bigger problem as I see it is that NYG's D can't stop the run, or good receivers, and that's before we talk about what Jalen Hurts presents matchup-wise.    Not crazy about 3.5 pts, but again I see a 7-10 pt win, so that reduces the chance of a backdoor L. 

LATE

LAC -2.5 @ DEN - Chargers could lose this with TO's, and letting DEN's run game keep the ball away from Herbert & co. on O.  Otherwise, I see a 7-10 pt win, so the risk of a backdoor is low with that 2.5 line.   Don't think any news would make the line shrink, so taking it now before the line hits that all-important 3-pt threshold.

LAR ML +100 @ GB - this is basically a pick 'em, but with the all-important news that LT Elgin Jenkins is out, combined with A-Rod's limited mobility with turf toe, this is an AWFUL matchup now.    Frankly, IMO LAR should be 3 pt road favorites.  So I'll absolutely back LAR here.   I get that LAR got smashed in the teeth the last 2 games - but their finesse based front 7 is not going to be manhandled the same way with GB's OL issues, and on the flip side, GB's weak links on D are going to get exposed by the LAR O.    Now, saying that LAR should be a 3-pt road fave, obv it's no lock, but to get even money when I think they win 60+ percent of the time vs. this present version of GB, gotta take the value.  

MIN ML +150 @ SF, RACE to 25/30 (+280 / +450)- I need to make sure everyone important on MIN is healthy, because they'll need everyone on D to just contain SF's run game, and Deebo Samuel / George Kittle.   The big thing here is that MIN's balance with Cook, plus their 3 WR's (Conklin should get easily neutralized by S Tartt's return), presents a real problem for SF's D.   If Kyle Shanahan cooks up a great gameplan like he did with LAR & JAX, the O can roll - but if MIN has an early answer and can get ahead, Shanny's inability to adjust in-game, makes the dog money & race-ing so sweet.  And as we have seen, MIN has issues giving up the lead late, but they're fantastic at getting up and frontrunning, so I have to take a shot on those inflated props.    I really see this similar to the IND-SF game potentially (with SF's O ceiling much higher obv, more talking the MIN O vs. SF D). 

 

PLAYER PROPS & LONGSHOT TD's

EARLY

Tom Brady O2.5 TD's +140 - I have IND as the ML wnner, but IND's D is a pass funnel D, so you give me + money on 3 TD's for TB12, I'll take it pretty much evey week.  EDIT:   The difference now is no Marpet & Evans likely hurting, along with key defenders White & Vea as GTD's - which increases the chance of a WFT repeat of ball control - so pulling this now.  

ADDED SAT PM LATE - Jonathan Taylor O79.5 rush yards +100 - there's risk here with Vita Vea and Devin White both as GTD's, but that tells me there's a good chance at least 1, if not both guys miss the game.  If that happens, this is a smash spot.   Even with them there, the OL is so good, and Taylor so dangerous, this could still win out.    

Michael Pittman O5.5 catches +130 (added SAT PM LATE), O65.5 rec yards - TAM's still a big pass funnel D, and there's no one who can take Pittman away completely.    I have Pittman for 80+ so this is an easy play.   The O5.5 catch +130 prop just got posted late on Saturday, I'm all over that as well.

ADDED SAT PM LATE - Rob Gronkowski O4.5 catches +130 - easy call with AB out, and Evans gimpy.  Gronk becomes TB12's safety valve, so at plus money, I'm all over this.

Najee Harris O4.5 catches +130 - CIN's D gives up the most pass catches & yards to RB's out of the whole league.  Combine it with Big Ben, no Juju and likely no Claypool, jeez, I'll take this easily.

Ja'marr Chase O5.5 catches +140 - with CIN's multi-pronged attack, I really like Chase to get fed this game, especially after 2 quiet ones.   Again, the +money makes this another value play.  

ADDED SAT PM LATE - Elijah Moore O55.5 rec yards - with news that Corey Davis is doubtful, this elevates Moore into #1 or #2 target with a leaky HOU pass D.   Easy addition.

ADDED SAT PM LATE - Pharoah Brown O14.5 rec yards - Brown is back to being the #1 TE, and with Tyrod Taylor back, it's actually serviceable.  The NYJ TE pass D is terrible, so this is an easy call at that low number.

TD PROPS

Pharoah Brown +400 TD / +5000 2+ (0.6U / 0.3U) - Brown is back to being the starting TE, and man, if there's a team that has a hard time defending the pass in the RZ, it's the Jets, who rank 32nd in DVOA vs. TE's.

Brevin Jordan +1000 TD / +12500 (0.4U / 0.2) - as a hedge in case I pick the wrong TE (LOL), I'll take the guy with even better odds.   Basically, hoping either scores (and I wouldn't say no to 1 guy getting 2 TD's lol).  

ADDED SAT AM - Miles Sanders  +125 TD / +900 2+ (1.0U / 0.5U) - breaking my longshot only rule with news Jordan Howard is ruled out.   This is a smash spot for Sanders (and at his salary another DFS staple).   Boston Scott don’t vulture me otherwise the value / odds with how heavily Phi leans on the run is worth making an exception.  

ADDED SUN NOON - Keelan Cole +600 TD / +7500 2+ (now +500 / +5500 - 0.6U/0.3U) - with both Corey Davis & Denzel Mims out, Cole makes the top 3, and he's their biggest body.   Going there at those odds.

LATE

Matt Stafford O2.5 TD's +180 - this is about the payout / value.  I think a 3-TD day is about a 45 percent probability, but you're paying at almost a 30 percent clip.   Have to take a shot here.

ADDED SAT PM LATE Darrell Henderson O63.5 rush yards - I’ve called for the LAR W and when that happens Henderson thrives as the closer.    For this prop seems again 15+ yards too low.  
 

Brandon Aiyuk O4.5 catches +120 - Elijah Mitchell is a GTD - which means the finger is still an issue.   That also means Deebo Samuel plays less X position than we'd normally see, which gets even more targets to Aiyuk.   Another easy call here.

George Kittle O58.5 rec yards - another effect of Deebo being used in the backfield more, is that Kittle gets even more focus and more targets - so I'll take the yardage prop easily with his YAC ability.

ADDED LATE SAT PM - Jerry Jeudy O51.5 rec yards - with news Asante Samuel Jr. is out, Courtland Sutton's likely going to draw boundary coverage with Michael Davis, and Jeudy's going to have a really strong matchup here.   Easy call.

 

I also have a 0.5U parley on IND ML / PHI -3.5 / LAR ML / LAC -2.5 / MIN ML for +4500, so hoping I can catch lightning in a bottle, along with the 22.5U on the above props.  That puts 24.0U on the line (also have OSU -7 2.2U to win 2U, but that's separate).  Let's get back on track, BOL!

 

2021 - WEEK 1 - WEEK 12 THANKSGIVING:

ATS 33-29; 9-12 with RACE to 15/20/25/30 (underdogs only), net +30.1U profit (taking dog ML & RACE's really pays off even with barely going over 50 percent ATS).

Player props - 109-103, +21.6U profit (thank you 8U on D'Ernst Johnson Week 7 TNF vs. DEN at +money, J-Taylor on SNF @ SF, and Damien Harris on TNF @ ATL for another 4U each)

TD - 15-44, but playing all longshot TD props, with Corey Davis +3300 2-TD hitting Week 1 & now Pat Friermuth +2500 2-TD, makes this +24.1U so far 

Net balance:  +75.8U

(Week 1 - +43.8U     Week 2 - -1.6U.    Week 3 - -1.3U     Week 4 - +12.2U   Week 5 - +9.0U  Week 6 - +8.2U   Week 7 - +15.7U  Week 8 - -18.6U <ouch>  Week 9 - +13.8U Week 10 - -4.6U Week 11 - +5.9U Week 12 (TG) - -6.7U)

 

Edited November 28, 2021 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

OK some late Saturday additions to the card:

-Adding IND RACE to 30 +450 - with reports that Devin White & Vita Vea are both gametime decisions, this raises the ceiling for IND's O.   The Bucs secondary is already vulnerable, but now the run game prowess is very much in question (Vea is the biggest key, but White is the other part that makes that run D so formidable).   This also gives me confidence to add Jonathan Taylor O79.5 rush yards +100.  Even if the 2 TAM stars were playing, this was tempting, it's easy to take now, especially with news that both Darius Leonard and Quenton Nelson got full practices in, which helps keep IND's D and OL performing at high levels - both which support the IND ML/RACE play, and Taylor's chances to control the game.   It also gives me the chance to take Michael Pittman O5.5 catches +130 to go with his yardage prop.   The Colts certainly feed Pittman in the pass game, and TAM's D doesn't have the ppl who will take him away completely (don't get hurt like Swift did, Pittman/Taylor <or any of my other guys lol>!).   Finally, I added Rob Gronkowski O4.5 catches +130 to the TAM side, with news that Antonio Brown is indeed ruled out, and Mike Evans, while playing, missed a ton of time with a bad back.    Gronk becomes TB12's safety valve, so 5+ catches becomes very doable, especially at plus money.

-I added 2 more props to the HOU - NYJ game.   With NYJ's pass D vs. TE ranking last by DVOA, and with Tyrod Taylor, a Pharoah Brown O14.5 rec yards prop seems like easy money.  It's a big reason why I'm taking HOU TE's for the longshot TD props, but 15+ yards seems too good to pass up.  On the flip side, news that Corey Davis is now doubtful means that I should take a stab at Elijah Moore O55.5 rec yards (no catch props out), as Moore is guaranteed to be the #1 or #2 target with the Jets this week.

- For the LAR-GB game, I added Darrell Henderson O63.5 rush yards - I’ve called for the LAR W and when that happens Henderson thrives as the closer.    For this prop seems again 15+ yards too low.  

-Finally, with news that Asante Samuel Jr. is out, I'm all over Jerry Jeudy O51.5 rec yards - frankly, I think this prop is 20 yards too low.   If the 1 PM props go well, I'll certainly consider adding to this, probably see if the catch prop (likely O4.5, no DEN catch props are out) at plus money will interest me.

With those 8 props added, I'm now up to 24.0U on the line for Sunday (above full card edited), with a modified 0.5U 5-leg parley with my 5 ATS/ML picks.    Hoping to bounce back after a brutal Turkey Day slate (that Swift injury changed 6 props' outcomes in all likelihood, but that's the game), hoping to bounce back in a big way.  BOL!

 

 

 

Edited November 28, 2021 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

With Marpet out & Evans likely banged up, along with the GTD's for Vea & White, the chances IND plays ball control more & can limit the RZ efficiency for TB12 goes way up - so I'm pulling the TB12 O2.5 TD prop off the board.  The rest remain, still waiting to add Jeudy O4.5 rec's if it's plus money (would replace TB12 prop).

Edited November 28, 2021 by Broncofan

[agarcia34]

Kyle Pitts over 62.5 yards. Jags give up an average of 58 yards to TEs. I like Pitts match up with the ability to get some easy YAC yards 

McCaffrey over 52.5 rec yards. 

Edited November 28, 2021 by agarcia34

[Broncofan]

With both Corey Davis inactive & Denzel Mims on the Covid list, that leaves Elijah Moore, Jamison Crowder & Keelan Cole as the main WR's left - unlike Crowder & Moore, who are bumped way down in odds, Cole was +600 / +7500 2+ so I went 0.6U/0.3U - late addition to card.  BOL!

[Trojan]

I have 5 DK lineups this week. I got destroyed and lost all of my ~20 lineups last week lol. Here's to hoping one pops so I can keep playing the rest of the year.

QB C. Wentz
RB C. McCaffrey
RB N. Harris
WR B. Cooks
WR M. Pittman Jr.
WR E. Moore
TE Evan Engram
FLEX T. Coleman
DST Jaguars

QB C. Wentz
RB N. Harris
RB D. Hilliard
WR B. Cooks
WR M. Pittman Jr.
WR B. Aiyuk
TE Kyle Pitts
FLEX S. Barkley
DST Texans

QB T. Taylor
RB J. Taylor
RB T. Coleman
WR A. Thielen
WR B. Cooks
WR K. Golladay
TE D. Goedert
FLEX B. Aiyuk
DST Patriots

QB Zach Wilson
RB J. Taylor
RB D. Henderson Jr.
WR E. Moore
WR K. Golladay
WR J. Crowder
TE Kyle Pitts
FLEX D. Hilliard
DST Patriots

QB: Tom Brady
RB: Saquon Barkley
RB: James Robinson
WR: Michael Pittman
WR: Brandon Aiyuk
WR: Chris Godwin
TE: Rob Gronkowski
FLEX: David Johnson
DST: Panthers

[agarcia34]

3 hours ago, agarcia34 said:

Kyle Pitts over 62.5 yards. Jags give up an average of 58 yards to TEs. I like Pitts match up with the ability to get some easy YAC yards 

McCaffrey over 52.5 rec yards. 

Zero catches and Zero catches.. I have the great ability to pick prop bets and the player I pick absolutely disappears…