Broncofan Posted November 6, 2020 Share Posted November 6, 2020 On 11/5/2020 at 12:12 PM, Broncofan said: Run game dominance was the matchup SF could exploit...but when Richie James and Trent Taylor are your best WR's, if you got GB at 6.5 or better, you feel good. Richie James TD prop might be worth exploring though. For the weekend: LV Raiders ML BAL -2.5 SEA -2.5 DEN / ATL UNDER 50 - the popular play is to think this is an easy over spot. But ATL's D is playing much better of late, and DEN's O has had trouble scoring. Fangio's philosophy is against opening it up. WAS -2.5 - Chase Young & D matchup are terrible for NYG OL & Jones' problems. MIA +4.5 - don't get this, I know Tua's not really ready - but that's a D that can deal with mobile QB's. Flores really impressing me. I’d remove DEN ATL from that card - AJ Bouye and Shelby Harris are both out. That raises ATL O ceiling a mile. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted November 9, 2020 Share Posted November 9, 2020 On 11/5/2020 at 12:12 PM, Broncofan said: Run game dominance was the matchup SF could exploit...but when Richie James and Trent Taylor are your best WR's, if you got GB at 6.5 or better, you feel good. Richie James TD prop might be worth exploring though. For the weekend: LV Raiders ML BAL -2.5 SEA -2.5 DEN / ATL UNDER 50 - the popular play is to think this is an easy over spot. But ATL's D is playing much better of late, and DEN's O has had trouble scoring. Fangio's philosophy is against opening it up. (EDIT: REMOVED AFTER BOUYE / CALLAHAN / S-HARRIS ANNOUNCED OUT) WAS -2.5 - Chase Young & D matchup are terrible for NYG OL & Jones' problems. MIA +4.5 - don't get this, I know Tua's not really ready - but that's a D that can deal with mobile QB's. Flores really impressing me. Well, 4-2 (GB -6.5, BAL -2.5, LV ML, MIA +4.5 W's, SEA -2.5 & WAS -2.5 L's) and James TD prop +700. Sucks that WAS turned it over so much, but that's the game. SEA was just an outright whiff. Tonight, it's boring - but Joe Flacco starting, have to go with BB even with 9.5 points laid out. Gotta think that is going to rise as the game approaches. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheesehawk Posted November 9, 2020 Share Posted November 9, 2020 20 minutes ago, Broncofan said: Well, 4-2 (GB -6.5, BAL -2.5, LV ML, MIA +4.5 W's, SEA -2.5 & WAS -2.5 L's) and James TD prop +700. Sucks that WAS turned it over so much, but that's the game. SEA was just an outright whiff. Tonight, it's boring - but Joe Flacco starting, have to go with BB even with 9.5 points laid out. Gotta think that is going to rise as the game approaches. Im not messing with 9.5. The Bills Jets game a couple weeks ago was like a 10.5 spread and killed my parlay. Patriots ML is safe but I dont like the spread here Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonStark Posted November 9, 2020 Share Posted November 9, 2020 Well Washington and that SEA/BUF game (I teased it to 70 and took the under in a big parlay) killed me. Time to take a break after a super hot start. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted November 9, 2020 Share Posted November 9, 2020 1 hour ago, Cheesehawk said: Im not messing with 9.5. The Bills Jets game a couple weeks ago was like a 10.5 spread and killed my parlay. Patriots ML is safe but I dont like the spread here Difference though - Darnold played. Even though he's not played well overall - he's literally 10x better than Joe Flacco. Flacco has no internal clock anymore, no mobility, and can't feel pressure coming. And his accuracy is long gone. Keep in mind BUF scored 6x....it was just 6 FG's. Only reason they didn't cover. Now, Cam plays poorly, I get the hesitation. But honestly, the way GM Douglas keeps depleting the roster, Gase using Flacco, well I'll spot the 9.5 pts. Having said that, one of the reasons why I took 9.5 - I figure the line's moving up. 10 is an important threshold to avoid. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N4L Posted November 9, 2020 Share Posted November 9, 2020 8 hours ago, Broncofan said: Well, 4-2 (GB -6.5, BAL -2.5, LV ML, MIA +4.5 W's, SEA -2.5 & WAS -2.5 L's) and James TD prop +700. Sucks that WAS turned it over so much, but that's the game. SEA was just an outright whiff. Yeah, good week for you again. I hammered MIA and LV thanks to your advice. Played BAL heavier than washington as well. I played the under in the washington nyg game for 50% of the other bets, so I was fine at the end with washington not scoring I had the over in the buffalo/seattle game. Played that for half of what I played seattle -3 for. so basically broke even on that game. I always play them all straight, but I do like to take a shot on some 3-5 teamers for a small amount relative to the other bets. this parlay had a chance of cashing. I had another one like this that had washington rather than the under on that game, and also without seattle. ahhh well. thats why we always play them straight! I also took the live under 54 in last nights game after new orleans scored their first TD. A sweaty win is still a win! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N4L Posted November 9, 2020 Share Posted November 9, 2020 tonight, I am on the under 42. I am worried about defensive TDs, but I expect a slow, low scoring game. I am also on the over Meyers rec yards, over harris rushing yards. I like to play RBs in fantasy when their teams are double digit favorites, bc with a big lead, NE will run the ball. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted November 11, 2020 Share Posted November 11, 2020 OK for TNF....when faced between 2 evenly matched teams, go with the better QB. So I'll go TEN -2. Really interested in IND pass game props for the WR's if they are behind. Immediate leans off the spreads released: TB -4.5 - this has dropped 2 pts following SNF. This is a major overreaction IMO. I like CAR's coaching, but the talent gap is massive, and the matchups are a huge problem. And if CMC is ruled out, man...TB anger game. SEA +2 - Aaron Donald & Jalen Ramsey can be negated with great QB play and more than 1 WR who can ball out - that's SEA. I know SEA's D is struggling - but LAR's O is so one-dimensional, I don't see this. I'm tempted to take the ML TBH. MIA -2.5 - it's all about LAC travelling out east - and that MIA D being able to pose problems for Herbert & Allen. Sadly, super-talented LAC team finds a way to lose, so 2.5 is pretty decent to take. PIT -7 - don't believe the narrative that Big Ben might miss the game. He's been tested negative, and his locker was next to Vance McDonald. That to me increases his chances of testing negative throughout - and we've seen the "will he/won't he play" with injuries before - he always plays if it doesn't need surgery. On the flip side, the PIT pass rush feasts on bad OL's and CIN's OL gets destroyed by elite pass rushes. Love Burrow, but this is a terrible spot. BAL -7 - it's not based on the MNF game - it's that NE's D is absolutely decimated. Without a pass rush or stout run D - that plays into BAL's frontrunner style. And on the flip side, with Isiah Wynn hurting, that's another awful matchup vs. BAL's upgraded pass rush. NE won't have a fully healthy Damien Harris, and I think Cam's hurting. This seems like a 10+ pt get-right W for BAL. I get that dogs have been doing much better this year, so I am nervous taking 5 out of 6 favorites. I'm posting these because I do think the line is only going to increase, why I'm taking them now, before they cross the important 7/7.5 or 3 pt thresholds (whereas TAM I think is way below appropriate pricing at around 7). We'll see. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
agarcia34 Posted November 11, 2020 Share Posted November 11, 2020 Chargers will wait till that number gets to 3. The air in the Dolphins balloon will start to deflate a little bit. I'll take the better QB with a better offense and a Chargers defense that should get Bosa back. Traveling to the East wont be an issue for the Chargers as this wont be an early start game this will be one of the many second slate of games we have on Sunday. Colts ML. Going up against a Titans defense is exactly what the Colts offense needs. Hoping the line will hit three so I can take that instead. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted November 11, 2020 Share Posted November 11, 2020 1 hour ago, agarcia34 said: Chargers will wait till that number gets to 3. The air in the Dolphins balloon will start to deflate a little bit. I'll take the better QB with a better offense and a Chargers defense that should get Bosa back. Traveling to the East wont be an issue for the Chargers as this wont be an early start game this will be one of the many second slate of games we have on Sunday. Colts ML. Going up against a Titans defense is exactly what the Colts offense needs. Hoping the line will hit three so I can take that instead. Fair point, that's a big schedule change. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shanedorf Posted November 11, 2020 Share Posted November 11, 2020 (edited) Here's Warren Sharp talking about some of the line movements for this week https://www.rotoworld.com/article/line-items/week-10-early-line-movement Los Angeles Chargers at Miami Dolphins The Chargers lost another heartbreaker to the Raiders last week, while Tua recorded his second win in as many starts. The line opened initially at Miami -1.5. It reopened at -1, but has taken Dolphins money all week, raising that number to -2.5. The total opened at 50 but has taken under money, dropping the total down to 48. Edited November 11, 2020 by Shanedorf Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
agarcia34 Posted November 12, 2020 Share Posted November 12, 2020 Didn’t expect the line movement for the Titans game to go like this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted November 12, 2020 Share Posted November 12, 2020 (edited) 4 hours ago, agarcia34 said: Didn’t expect the line movement for the Titans game to go like this. Crazy trend - if you don't count OT - TEN is 1-5 as the favorite ATS (OT HOU game being where they get to 2-4)....and they're 2-0 as the dog (they started out as a dog vs. DEN). They had this same phenomenon last year. Now that they're the dog...I feel better taking TEN. I feel WAY better about taking the yardage props on IND WR's except Hilton, they're ridiculously low. Edited November 12, 2020 by Broncofan 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
agarcia34 Posted November 13, 2020 Share Posted November 13, 2020 Still taking the Colts. Just locked it in. Just like this spot for them and I honestly think the Titans are overrated. Just need Rivers to not blow this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted November 13, 2020 Share Posted November 13, 2020 7 minutes ago, agarcia34 said: Still taking the Colts. Just locked it in. Just like this spot for them and I honestly think the Titans are overrated. Just need Rivers to not blow this The pick 'em line is well earned, for exactly this reason IMO. His play (or lack thereof) likely swings this game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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