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Weekly Bets Thread


BStanRamFan

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21 minutes ago, braylon said:

How we feeling about SEA -6.5 tonight guys?

 

17 minutes ago, Malfatron said:

Bet the eagles imo

its gonna be a close game

As someone who took SEA -5 early on - I'm going to likely try and see if I can middle this as I think SEA will get out to an early lead, and then PHI at some inflated number.  The gap at 7.5 will likely go to 10+ if SEA scores first (especially if it's a TD).    A can't lose prop.

Player props I like:

-Reagor over 48.5 yards and over 3.5 recs

-Dissly over 20.5 yards (with Olsen out, someone is getting the TE looks - if it's Hollister, ugh).

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19 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

 

As someone who took SEA -5 early on - I'm going to likely try and see if I can middle this as I think SEA will get out to an early lead, and then PHI at some inflated number.  The gap at 7.5 will likely go to 10+ if SEA scores first (especially if it's a TD).    A can't lose prop.

Player props I like:

-Reagor over 48.5 yards and over 3.5 recs

-Dissly over 20.5 yards (with Olsen out, someone is getting the TE looks - if it's Hollister, ugh).

Seattle uses Dissly down the field, in the steams and leaking out down the sideline.

Hollister is used more underneath and in motion. 

Dissly in his career is averaging about 12 yards per reception and hauling in 85% of his targets over the last two seasons. As long as he gets 2-3 targets this week, he DEF gonna hit 20+.

THAT BEING SAID, Brandon Shell (RT) is out this week. Therefore WIll might be used alot as a blocker. Especially with how disruptive Philly's DLINE can be. 

Edited by animaltested
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16 hours ago, Broncofan said:

 

As someone who took SEA -5 early on - I'm going to likely try and see if I can middle this as I think SEA will get out to an early lead, and then PHI at some inflated number.  The gap at 7.5 will likely go to 10+ if SEA scores first (especially if it's a TD).    A can't lose prop.

Player props I like:

-Reagor over 48.5 yards and over 3.5 recs

-Dissly over 20.5 yards (with Olsen out, someone is getting the TE looks - if it's Hollister, ugh).

Player props 0/2.......SEA -5 and PHI +10.5 hits.   Yes, I realize I was super lucky on PHI backdooring it, but after watching LAC botch their +5, I'll take it without reservation.    The improbable 4-2 spread week with both sides covering (also covers the 0-2 player props going poof on MNF).   On to next week.

Edited by Broncofan
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16 hours ago, Broncofan said:

 

As someone who took SEA -5 early on - I'm going to likely try and see if I can middle this as I think SEA will get out to an early lead, and then PHI at some inflated number.  The gap at 7.5 will likely go to 10+ if SEA scores first (especially if it's a TD).    A can't lose prop.

Player props I like:

-Reagor over 48.5 yards and over 3.5 recs

-Dissly over 20.5 yards (with Olsen out, someone is getting the TE looks - if it's Hollister, ugh).

I am so happy I took Seattle really early at 5 and 5.5. That's a sick loss for the 6.5 guys. 

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Early line action I'd be interested to leverage before the spread moves in the wrong direction:

-DET +3 vs. CHI - if DET gets Swift and Golladay back (and Swift seems almost certain), I don't see how the line moves CHI's way.   I guess if Stafford didn't play, I'd regret it.  But the odds seem more tilted to good news for DET.     Hicks isn't likely to return, which changes the dynamic of that run D so much (hammy injuries aren't a 1-week thing, especially with a big guy like him).  By DVOA and by yardage totals and expected W's, they are literally equal teams.   Plus, I'm a big believer in the post-fire bump teams get when a much-needed firing happens.  That's definitely the case with Patricia & Quinn.  So give me the 3 points every day.

-IND -3 vs. HOU - this is a classic overreaction line IMO.   HOU is just awful, and IND's D will stop almost every mortal run game.  No Fuller, and Watson has struggled, IMO this caps their O ceiling significantly.   No Roby means even Rivers' weaknesses (and believe me, they are absolutely there, as we saw last week) don't get exposed.   Add in the likely return of Jonathan Taylor, and the possibility of Buckner returning, I don't want this line to go past 3 points, so again I'd take IND every day now.  I only see news that would push the line higher.

-CLE +6 vs. TEN - I get it, TEN obliterated IND.   And Baker Mayfield clearly has limitations to his game, and the CLE LB's are bad.     But the TEN D is still a major liability - and while I'm not a Baker fan (I think he's the bus driver, rather than the key cog), he's got more ability to exploit it with their awesome 1-2 punch of Chubb/Hunt and great OL play vs. TEN's leaky D.   My main rule - TEN is a great dog, but a terrible favorite.   Give me the CLE points here.   If Myles Garrett gets activated (and he's eligible), I'd guess this lines moves off the oh-so important 6 pt line.

I also lean to LAR -3 over ARI (as Kyler doesn't look right to me, not running limits the ARI O a lot), and JAX +9.5, but I'm hoping the lines can jump (-2.5 and +10), then I'd pounce.  

Edited by Broncofan
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