Weekly Bets Thread

[N4L]

4 hours ago, UncleAdamz said:

I honestly would stay away from this game as I feel as if it entirely dependent on Kyler's health. I would think he is getting back to around 100%, but you never know. Either way, it's the Cardinals, so it should be a tight game. The -3 line is right where it should be, there is no reason take that at -3.5, and many reasons to take it at -2.5.

Kylers non throwing shoulder is hurt and I saw him get squashed a few times in the NE game where he landed directly on the left side of his body. I dont see any reason why I should expect him to be 'healthy' this week. Those hits add up. 

Last year kyler pulled his hamstring. He would be 'full participant' in practice but clearly was not right. The same thing is happening this year. The cardinals are trying to protect him by signaling to their opposition that he isnt hurt - because NFL players will sometimes target a guy with an injury, or knowing they are injured can change the defense's gameplan because they know he wouldnt want to run. So I do not trust the cardinals injury reporting when it comes to Kyler and I believe that he is not 100%, nor will he be soon. Its easy to be a full participant in a non contact practice when its your non throwing shoulder that is hurt

 

I also think that teams are starting to figure out the cardinals offense. Kyler has not developed mentally like cards fans would hope, and DCs are starting to make adjustments to KK and he hasnt adjusted back yet. Remember, this is only KKs second season calling plays in the NFL. It takes several years of DCs adjusting to you before you are an established play caller. This offense is still in its infancy and I think the rams match up well in the secondary, along with having a stout front that should give the cards OL issues. Rams LBs are slow and not good at getting to the edges, as noted by @Forge in the weekly podcast we do (check us out in the niners forum, shameless plug), so I do think the cards could have success with drake/edmonds on the edge, and kyler could present problems to their LBs with his speed, but I really dont think the cards will have a lot of success against this very tough rams defense especially considering this is a divisional game and the first time these two teams have played all season. 

I also think the cardinals are a touch overrated, even when they dont have certain matchup or injury issues, I dont think they are as good of a team as people want to give them credit for. 

LIS in the bit you quoted me, I think the rams offense should rebound as well because (I believe) that vance uses a lot of zone coverages, which is what the rams feast on. 

 

So that is my reasoning with that bet. I do appreciate your insight however. 

[UncleAdamz]

1 hour ago, N4L said:

I also think that teams are starting to figure out the cardinals offense. 

I do agree that the match up doesn't suit the Cardinals very well, but I entirely disagree with this. Prior to Murray's injury, the Cardinals had the most yards of any offense in the NFL (As NFL Broadcasters would say, "The best offense in the NFL"), and it's not like those yards were coming while down 10+ points. I think that if they can just limp into the playoffs they will be very dangerous playing any team. However, as for this match up, I either see it being a close game or a Rams blowout win. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Rams win by exactly 3.

Edited December 4, 2020 by UncleAdamz

[SaveOurSonics]

14 hours ago, N4L said:

This is going to be a slug fest imo. A coin flip type game where the better team also has the quirky, less established QB. It feels like a game that will come down to the last drive. 

Fair points all around. I already locked in the bet but I’m not loving the news trickling out since (Davenport out, Jenkins out, Julio in). Could easily be the game to break a good thing. 

Can’t blame you for avoiding it but I still feel good about it. 

[bigbadbuff]

The Bills being +1 on a neutral site against the Nick Mullins 49'ers is insane.

[Cheesehawk]

Not NFL, but Indiana has a +13 and a +375 ML against Wisconsin today. Looks really good

[bigbadbuff]

6 minutes ago, Cheesehawk said:

Not NFL, but Indiana has a +13 and a +375 ML against Wisconsin today. Looks really good

No idea about Indaiana's backup how is he?

[Cheesehawk]

3 minutes ago, bigbadbuff said:

No idea about Indaiana's backup how is he?

Well I completely missed Penix tearing his ACL... that ML makes a lot more sense now. But their backup went 5/5 in relief duty so I'm throwin a 5 on this anyway. Especially after how Wisconsin looked last week

Edited December 5, 2020 by Cheesehawk

[Fray32]

58 minutes ago, bigbadbuff said:

The Bills being +1 on a neutral site against the Nick Mullins 49'ers is insane.

Got the Bills at pk and was scared to lock it in bc I thought Josh Allen or someone must be out for the line to be this close. Even with their injuries the 49ers can still cause problems but Bills feel underpriced here.

[Broncofan]

On 12/1/2020 at 2:33 PM, Broncofan said:

Early line action I'd be interested to leverage before the spread moves in the wrong direction:

-DET +3 vs. CHI - if DET gets Swift and Golladay back (and Swift seems almost certain), I don't see how the line moves CHI's way.   I guess if Stafford didn't play, I'd regret it.  But the odds seem more tilted to good news for DET.     Hicks isn't likely to return, which changes the dynamic of that run D so much (hammy injuries aren't a 1-week thing, especially with a big guy like him).  By DVOA and by yardage totals and expected W's, they are literally equal teams.   Plus, I'm a big believer in the post-fire bump teams get when a much-needed firing happens.  That's definitely the case with Patricia & Quinn.  So give me the 3 points every day.

-IND -3 vs. HOU - this is a classic overreaction line IMO.   HOU is just awful, and IND's D will stop almost every mortal run game.  No Fuller, and Watson has struggled, IMO this caps their O ceiling significantly.   No Roby means even Rivers' weaknesses (and believe me, they are absolutely there, as we saw last week) don't get exposed.   Add in the likely return of Jonathan Taylor, and the possibility of Buckner returning, I don't want this line to go past 3 points, so again I'd take IND every day now.  I only see news that would push the line higher.

-CLE +6 vs. TEN - I get it, TEN obliterated IND.   And Baker Mayfield clearly has limitations to his game, and the CLE LB's are bad.     But the TEN D is still a major liability - and while I'm not a Baker fan (I think he's the bus driver, rather than the key cog), he's got more ability to exploit it with their awesome 1-2 punch of Chubb/Hunt and great OL play vs. TEN's leaky D.   My main rule - TEN is a great dog, but a terrible favorite.   Give me the CLE points here.   If Myles Garrett gets activated (and he's eligible), I'd guess this lines moves off the oh-so important 6 pt line.

I also lean to LAR -3 over ARI (as Kyler doesn't look right to me, not running limits the ARI O a lot), and JAX +9.5, but I'm hoping the lines can jump (-2.5 and +10), then I'd pounce.  

With the LAR line settling in at -2.5, I'm totally fine with going that way.     LAR's D vs. a hurting Kyler is too good an opp if you're going to get below the important 3-pt threshold.     I also think last week is influencing the market on ATL +3.    I get they are much improved, and I absolutely think Taysom is very limited as a QB.   It's just that if Julio isn't close to 100 percent, the NO DST dominates the ATL O.      I'll wait on the injury report to come out before I hit NO/ATL, but if Julio's not playing, I'd even tolerate -4/5, it's that much of a game changer.

[Cheesehawk]

8 hours ago, bigbadbuff said:

No idea about Indaiana's backup how is he?

He was good enough. $$

[mtmmike]

Browns roll 6 wins 1 loss with chubb in the line up

Browns 8 wins no losses with Mayfield posting a 70 qb ranking my guess is he has a qb ranking of 110.00

[Rainmaker90]

Indy X-Large

LAR and NO normal 

all MLs

 

SF large tomorrow night

[Malfatron]

hammer wash at -9.5

[Broncofan]

On 12/1/2020 at 2:33 PM, Broncofan said:

Early line action I'd be interested to leverage before the spread moves in the wrong direction:

-DET +3 vs. CHI - if DET gets Swift and Golladay back (and Swift seems almost certain), I don't see how the line moves CHI's way.   I guess if Stafford didn't play, I'd regret it.  But the odds seem more tilted to good news for DET.     Hicks isn't likely to return, which changes the dynamic of that run D so much (hammy injuries aren't a 1-week thing, especially with a big guy like him).  By DVOA and by yardage totals and expected W's, they are literally equal teams.   Plus, I'm a big believer in the post-fire bump teams get when a much-needed firing happens.  That's definitely the case with Patricia & Quinn.  So give me the 3 points every day.

-IND -3 vs. HOU - this is a classic overreaction line IMO.   HOU is just awful, and IND's D will stop almost every mortal run game.  No Fuller, and Watson has struggled, IMO this caps their O ceiling significantly.   No Roby means even Rivers' weaknesses (and believe me, they are absolutely there, as we saw last week) don't get exposed.   Add in the likely return of Jonathan Taylor, and the possibility of Buckner returning, I don't want this line to go past 3 points, so again I'd take IND every day now.  I only see news that would push the line higher.

-CLE +6 vs. TEN - I get it, TEN obliterated IND.   And Baker Mayfield clearly has limitations to his game, and the CLE LB's are bad.     But the TEN D is still a major liability - and while I'm not a Baker fan (I think he's the bus driver, rather than the key cog), he's got more ability to exploit it with their awesome 1-2 punch of Chubb/Hunt and great OL play vs. TEN's leaky D.   My main rule - TEN is a great dog, but a terrible favorite.   Give me the CLE points here.   If Myles Garrett gets activated (and he's eligible), I'd guess this lines moves off the oh-so important 6 pt line.

I also lean to LAR -3 over ARI (as Kyler doesn't look right to me, not running limits the ARI O a lot), and JAX +9.5, but I'm hoping the lines can jump (-2.5 and +10), then I'd pounce.  

 

On 12/5/2020 at 1:41 PM, Broncofan said:

With the LAR line settling in at -2.5, I'm totally fine with going that way.     LAR's D vs. a hurting Kyler is too good an opp if you're going to get below the important 3-pt threshold.     I also think last week is influencing the market on ATL +3.    I get they are much improved, and I absolutely think Taysom is very limited as a QB.   It's just that if Julio isn't close to 100 percent, the NO DST dominates the ATL O.      I'll wait on the injury report to come out before I hit NO/ATL, but if Julio's not playing, I'd even tolerate -4/5, it's that much of a game changer.

6/6 - and as a massive bonus, hit the 5-4-3 leg parleys (in round robins as well) with CLE +6, JAX +10, DET +3, LAR -2.5, NO -3 and IND -3.   Thought DET +3 was going to be a push - thank you Mitch Trubisky lol.

 

Edited December 7, 2020 by Broncofan

[bigbadbuff]

17 minutes ago, Malfatron said:

hammer wash at -9.5

?

 

ATL’s incompetence cost me an even bigger weekend than I’ve already had which has been the best I’ve had in a while.

Hammering KC -13 to cap the weekend. Let’s go!