Weekly Bets Thread

[El Ramster]

4 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

My only advice - if you just turned 200 into 1100 - don't bet 1100 the next week.   Bankroll management helps you build it up.    Save half your winnings at the very least.  

FWIW, I actually have CLE over BAL, but it's not the bet, it's the bankroll management.   Don't put all your winnings on the line the next week.   You can be the best guy in the betting game - and you're still only going to hit <60 percent of the time.   That also means you're going to go 0-for-3 some weeks too (and esp if 1 of the 3 bets is a 6-leg parley).  Increasing your stake the week after a big win is about the surest way to crush your bankroll.  

 

Honestly i just see it as free cash. 
 

bet 200 on the rams to beat Tam

bet it all in to beat az 

 

then took that and bet everything in Buff smashing 49rs. 
 

I get what you’re saying. But I’m Playing with house money. But I just feel like bal will destroy clev... I’ll still have 350/400 left. Lol 

[SaveOurSonics]

Went against my gut at the last minute 🤦‍♂️

Pretty much had the Rams +1.5 U50 teaser (-120) locked and loaded but got greedy and changed to Rams win by 1-13pts (+145) at the last minute in an attempt to cash out more. Figured Pats could at least keep it within 2 TDs. 

Back to the drawing board. 

[Broncofan]

FWIW with news that Julio is out, LAC +2.5 (likely to move down) seems too good to pass up.   Again, another case of recency bias.   ATL's pass D is their biggest weakness on D, and the O absolutely struggles hard when Julio isn't in.    

[Rainmaker90]

11 hours ago, El Ramster said:

Honestly i just see it as free cash. 
 

bet 200 on the rams to beat Tam

bet it all in to beat az 

 

then took that and bet everything in Buff smashing 49rs. 
 

I get what you’re saying. But I’m Playing with house money. But I just feel like bal will destroy clev... I’ll still have 350/400 left. Lol 

If I am playing with house money, I go for the big wins. You're lucky to hit 50% of your bets, and I mean extremely lucky. You're only going to cash if you hit your big ones. I am with you on Balt. I money lined them when they were -1 or even. 

[BStanRamFan]

36 minutes ago, Rainmaker90 said:

If I am playing with house money, I go for the big wins. You're lucky to hit 50% of your bets, and I mean extremely lucky. You're only going to cash if you hit your big ones. I am with you on Balt. I money lined them when they were -1 or even. 

It really depends what you're view of betting is. If it's entertainment, then sure risk your winnings cause at the end of the day, you're not losing anything. Just make sure you pull back your initial deposit.

If you're trying to win money then that's the dumbest thing you can do. Your bet value(unit) should never change. If its 25$ then it's always 25$. If you love a play, then maybe double it to a 2 unit play or 3, but ultimately just rolling your winnings to the next bet will make you broke fast. 

[indifference]

Not buying the Browns hype especially knowing Baker Mayfield history against trying to pass on the Ravens. I’ve legit never seen him have a good game and without Odell? Yeah, good luck bud. Ravens -2.5 is a steal. They are more talented on the defensive side of ball thus more prone to create turnovers. I love em

Colts -2 also is a good deal. Colts OL should dominate the Raiders DL upfront. Not sure why that line is so low but I think IND has enough on the Defensive side of the ball to win by at least a possession or 2. Great linebacking core, good secondary and good DL. It’ll be tough sledding try to run on them with Jacobs status up in the air.

Steelers +2

Always felt like Tomlin teams play down to their competition. That happened last week but I can’t see them doing that vs the Bills. 

Those are my straights this week.

[Rainmaker90]

54 minutes ago, BStanRamFan said:

It really depends what you're view of betting is. If it's entertainment, then sure risk your winnings cause at the end of the day, you're not losing anything. Just make sure you pull back your initial deposit.

If you're trying to win money then that's the dumbest thing you can do. Your bet value(unit) should never change. If its 25$ then it's always 25$. If you love a play, then maybe double it to a 2 unit play or 3, but ultimately just rolling your winnings to the next bet will make you broke fast. 

That's just not true. If you make the same bet all the time, you simply won't win money. Again, you are lucky to hit 50% of your bets. 

[BStanRamFan]

2 minutes ago, Rainmaker90 said:

That's just not true. If you make the same bet all the time, you simply won't win money. Again, you are lucky to hit 50% of your bets. 

Sadly have to disagree with you. Using a unit system is the most pragmatic approach to winning in sports betting over a long period of time. And the key number is 55%* of your bets; it accounts for the vig. I'm picking 52% for the year, but I'm in the positive overall due to parlays. If you play with all your winnings everytime, you will walk away with nothing or be constantly reloading your bankroll.

 

https://www.docsports.com/service/sports-betting-unit-system-money-management.html

[Rainmaker90]

5 minutes ago, BStanRamFan said:

Sadly have to disagree with you. Using a unit system is the most pragmatic approach to winning in sports betting over a long period of time. And the key number is 55%* of your bets; it accounts for the vig. I'm picking 52% for the year, but I'm in the positive overall due to parlays. If you play with all your winnings everytime, you will walk away with nothing or be constantly reloading your bankroll.

 

https://www.docsports.com/service/sports-betting-unit-system-money-management.html

I did not say bet your entire stack on 1 game. But you most certainly should vary it if you want any chance of cashing and cashing big. 

[BStanRamFan]

9 minutes ago, Rainmaker90 said:

I did not say bet your entire stack on 1 game. But you most certainly should vary it if you want any chance of cashing and cashing big. 

I also said you can change your unit to 2x-3x depending on how confident you are in a play. Cashing big is the longshot. Incremental building is a way of long term success while minimizing risk.

But hey man, do you.  

[Rainmaker90]

10 minutes ago, BStanRamFan said:

I also said you can change your unit to 2x-3x depending on how confident you are in a play. Cashing big is the longshot. Incremental building is a way of long term success while minimizing risk.

But hey man, do you.  

You as well man. Your Rams did me good last week, and I was too scared to play them last night! 

[BStanRamFan]

1 minute ago, Rainmaker90 said:

You as well man. Your Rams did me good last week, and I was too scared to play them last night! 

This was my play last night. Cashed with 5min left in the 2nd quarter.

 

 

[Rainmaker90]

1 minute ago, BStanRamFan said:

This was my play last night. Cashed with 5min left in the 2nd quarter.

 

 

Good hit! Do you or anyone else have any good twitter follows, forums or podcasts that you subscribe to? 

[Broncofan]

2 hours ago, BStanRamFan said:

It really depends what you're view of betting is. If it's entertainment, then sure risk your winnings cause at the end of the day, you're not losing anything. Just make sure you pull back your initial deposit.

If you're trying to win money then that's the dumbest thing you can do. Your bet value(unit) should never change. If its 25$ then it's always 25$. If you love a play, then maybe double it to a 2 unit play or 3, but ultimately just rolling your winnings to the next bet will make you broke fast. 

 

1 hour ago, Rainmaker90 said:

That's just not true. If you make the same bet all the time, you simply won't win money. Again, you are lucky to hit 50% of your bets. 

 

1 hour ago, BStanRamFan said:

Sadly have to disagree with you. Using a unit system is the most pragmatic approach to winning in sports betting over a long period of time. And the key number is 55%* of your bets; it accounts for the vig. I'm picking 52% for the year, but I'm in the positive overall due to parlays. If you play with all your winnings everytime, you will walk away with nothing or be constantly reloading your bankroll.

 

https://www.docsports.com/service/sports-betting-unit-system-money-management.html

 

54 minutes ago, Rainmaker90 said:

I did not say bet your entire stack on 1 game. But you most certainly should vary it if you want any chance of cashing and cashing big. 

 

43 minutes ago, BStanRamFan said:

I also said you can change your unit to 2x-3x depending on how confident you are in a play. Cashing big is the longshot. Incremental building is a way of long term success while minimizing risk.

But hey man, do you.  

Until we get games, it's worth pointing out a few items ppl have alluded to on best long-term betting strategy:

1.  Bet variance - it's absolutely fair to say you can't just bet the same amount each time - unless you have found a flaw in the handicapping system, the house usually will find a way to catch up, and with the vig, it's very hard to keep a winning record.    So variation with the strength of confidence, is absolutely warranted.   For example, putting down a 8U bet on NO-DEN with NO -3 when the DEN QB's were announced to be pulled from practice (and before the lines were pulled) is an exploit play.   There it's totally fine to go heavy.    There's in fact a system on betting, where if you believe the lines are underweight on your probability of winning, then you should bet more - Kelly method of betting (google it, there's a nice calculator almost always on those resources).     Really, it's about putting bets in where the odds are in your favor (like doubling down or splitting vs. 4/5/6 in blackjack).

2. Bankroll management is an absolute must, though.   Most ppl can't afford to reload their stake 4-5x a year.    That's the risk if you bet half your stake on games.     So even if Kelly tells you to bet half your stake, if you can't afford to reload easily...then you should modify this.   Because betting high when the odds are in your favor is no guarantee you'll win (duh, but it's amazing how ppl ignore this).   Personally, I never put more than 10 percent of my stake in a single game.  I would NOT say to follow Kelly religiously, use a max amount you are willing to put on a game - because your ability to reload if your bet still goes south, well that factors in.  

3. There's a biological reason why ppl tend to go big when they are on a winning streak, but don't stop when the run is over - the rush they get with a big score.   It's a massive endorphin rush, and ppl want to feel it again.  Here's the thing, though - ppl look to replicate that rush in the following weeks, and they seldom occur, unless the scale of victory is the same.  And THAT is where the fallacy comes in - the probability of win is likely no different than the prior week, but you're chasing the same rush - but risking a lot more with likely a similar probability.    THAT to me is the fallacy of going big the following week after a big win.    I hear all the time ppl say "it's free money, I'm using house money" - when they are ahead.  But once they lose that stake....do they have the discipline to start from scratch with the same stakes as before, or do they chase the big win...with higher stakes per bet?  That's the huge trap I see, and it's actually biologically driven.    By all means, have fun, go up if you want.  Just don't give it all back within the next 1-2 weeks.

4.  Chasing that repeat big W on parleys because it happened before.... time and again, I see ppl chase parleys, even though the odds are heavily against it happening with regularity.   It's why absolute discipline on parley bets is the way to go (bet 90+ percent single bets, and 10 percent or less parleys  and even then, you now have to hit close to 60 percent to ensure profit - which is why variance helps too, player props, ML bets, live in-game <where exploits in odds can be leveraged if what you see doesn't match the line>, and spread bets all matter).

Usually big weeks involve a little luck, even when you make all the right calls (IND-HOU was absolutely the right call, but IND played it conservative and didn't use Taylor at all, and so kept HOU in the game - Watson's fumble was still a gift).   Those are the weeks to cherish.  But the following week, you're back to the same starting odds - but now you're increasing the stake in a huge way.   That's a warning flag IMO.    If there's a real exploit to be found (NO-DEN the most recent example), sure, hit it hard.  But if it's just because you're on a hot streak - be careful.   Especially if you don't have the bankroll to simply reload - and more importantly, the mental discipline not to chase that rush you got the week before.

BOL as always...

Edited December 11, 2020 by Broncofan

[BStanRamFan]

1 minute ago, Rainmaker90 said:

Good hit! Do you or anyone else have any good twitter follows, forums or podcasts that you subscribe to? 

That account is my account. Picking 52% on the year, but its only NFL and NBA. Best account I've seen on twitter is @PropBetGuy He's the best I've ever seen do it. All the picks are free too. Never pay for anything. I don't have any other forums or podcasts though. Just #GamblingTwitter