Weekly Bets Thread

[Broncofan]

On 12/9/2020 at 12:59 PM, Broncofan said:

OK well hoping for a week like last one, those kind of weeks can prop up a whole season.

At first glance, a few lines stand out:

HOU -1 - I know, I know, the Texans D is awful.   And no Fuller, I get it.   But man, the Bears OL is a total mess.   And while I have nothing but respect for the CHI D, again Hicks & Mack might play, but won't be close to 100 percent IMO, given the nature of their injuries.   If they don't play, even better.   If you can't tell the diff between the 2 teams, then it comes down to TO's, QB play and the coaching.   With BOB gone, that means HOU starts with a clear edge in 2/3 areas.   Give me HOU -1.

TAM -6.5 - TAM coming off a bye, the best run D around, and a pass rush that gives bad OL's fits (but gets stymied by top 5 OL's, why they match up so poorly with NO).   Then an O that has issues with good pass rush D's - which isn't the case with MIN with their roster depleted.   Add in that they may be missing Eric Hendricks, and man, this seems like a 10+ pt W for TAM.   

IND -2.5 - trusting Rivers and Reich's love of splitting the RB work is a scary prop, especially with LV's run game.   Both teams are eerily similar on O - they're great front runners, using the run and play-action to get ahead, and that makes the pass game play up.  2 key differences - IND's D is legit, and Jacobs won't be playing for LV.   I worry about the coaching edge Gruden has on Reich (Gruden makes great pre-game plans, it's the 2H adjustments that killed him in his return, he's improved there of late).     But in the end, the rush game & D edge for IND, I'll take the critical -2.5 (I see it's moved to -3 already in some books, I'm OK with that, but obv -2.5 better).  I would feel FAR more comfortable about this if IND would stop giving Jordan Wilkins so many touches.  Taylor's vision and comfort at NFL speed has shown up the last 2 games - use him, that's why you traded up in Rd2 to get him. 

KC -7 - I know, I know, MIA's a really balanced team, and that D is legit.   Where that D has struggled, though - teams that can run and whose pass game isn't centered on 1-2 guys, and who handle blitz schemes with zero deep coverage.   That is an awful matchup strategy vs. Hill / Hardman (if Sammy is out) / Kelce.     And while I really love Flores, Tua is not there yet against good pass D's.   KC's vulnerability is actually the run D - so the MIA OL weaknesses (that Fitzmagic covered up with so well by getting rid of the ball in under 2.5 secs 90+ percent of time) is a huge issue in this matchup.   Out of the 3 favorites I'm taking, I feel the least confident of the 3, but it just still stands out to me as value.

PIT +2.5 - classic case of recency bias.   I hope Spillane is OK, because PIT is OK without Dupree with Highsmith replacing him, but Spillane is harder to replace.    But it's still a pressure D that will give Allen problems - you can't let him stand back and create magic with his legs and that cannon.  PIT's formula to get to the QB quickly is the best foil to his skillset.  On O,  you have to attack BUF with short passing game and the run, and realize T-White will take out 1 WR (I'm guessing Claypool since he runs the deeper stuff).   But Conner's return helps (not so much as a runner, but as a blocker and outlet RB guy, Snell isn't nearly as good in those areas).   It would be better if PIT had a legit run game, but their short pass game (with Claypool / Washington as the deep threats to make D's play the long ball honestly) actually works well vs. BUF's scheme - it's not dependent on 1-2 guys, who BUF can really take out.    Ebron (and the other WR's) can't drop balls, though, as they will get a lot of short game volume.   Still, before this past week, I think PIT would have been the favorite, or a pick' em on the road.    I actually think a ML bet is even better value - but for parleys, I'll take the points.   FWIW, I think PIT will go to +3 at some point, given recency bias, so I may want to wait to lock the number in if you are going spread.

WFT +3.5 - I hate that Antonio Gibson is out.  But I love that WAS D.   And Terry Mclaurin is the real deal.    It helps that their supporting cast is starting to come around, they'll need it.   Make no mistake, he's a great story, but QB Alex Smith is still pretty limited, so I do worry what happens if SF takes away Mclaurin, especially with no Gibson.   And for the love of God, please let McKissic work, and don't lean on Peyton Barber.   In the end, I just have so much respect for Chase Young / Montez Sweat and that D.    I think a WFT ML bet isn't crazy, but for parleys, I'll take the points.

I also think over 55 in GB-DET is worth looking at.  DET's going to get Swift back, and that changes their O so much.  Having said that, their D is abysmal.  On the flip side, GB's D isn't a whole lot better.   My only worry is interim HC Bevell tries to go run heavy to shorten the game - when really, he needs to let Stafford, Swift, Hock & that WR corps loose.    Given it's under 56, I'll go there.

Standard disclaimers - taking these as single-bets, and will take a 6-team parley, and likely combine a few into 2-3 more parleys, but 90+ percent are single game plays.  BOL!

 

 

 

 

 

On 12/11/2020 at 10:36 AM, Broncofan said:

FWIW with news that Julio is out, LAC +2.5 (likely to move down) seems too good to pass up.   Again, another case of recency bias.   ATL's pass D is their biggest weakness on D, and the O absolutely struggles hard when Julio isn't in.    

With the GB-DET pushing at 55, I went 4-3 with the above picks - the PIT injuries to the LB's & HOU losing all their O had me worried about those picks, and that came to pass.   Just a sick backdoor cover by MIA - HOU & PIT were just huge whiffs, though, so I'll absorb the bad KC beat, rather have it happen on a week I missed on others, no parley regrets lol.   I also took the Taylor rushing & receiving props, and the Monty rushing props (always nice when you go over on the first play from scrimmage lol).   Full credit to @N4L on his 3 player props (although if you read our DEN forum Random Thoughts thread, you'll see I called the Taylor breakout this week too lol), as they turn a 4-3 day into a 7-3 day, although no parleys (spread & ML parleys), but with 7-3 on the 90+ percent stake, still a decent weekend overall.

For tomorrow, the one player prop that stands out is Willie Snead over 30.5 yards.   He's their go-to guy, and Ward likely goes after Landry.   BOL!  

Edited December 14, 2020 by Broncofan

[El Ramster]

@N4L what are your thoughts on tomorrows

Game babe? 
 

@Broncofan the Saints burned me today.. But thank god for wash and Buff. Got all my

momey back. Scary day for sure. 

[N4L]

4 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

   I also took the Taylor rushing & receiving props, and the Monty rushing props (always nice when you go over on the first play from scrimmage lol).   Full credit to @N4L on his 3 player props as they turn a 4-3 day into a 7-3 day, although no parleys (spread & ML parleys), but with 7-3 on the 90+ percent stake, still a decent weekend overall.

Hell yeah, I'm glad I could return the favor! I followed you a bunch of times earlier in the season to great success 

[Broncofan]

1 minute ago, El Ramster said:

@N4L what are your thoughts on tomorrows

Game babe? 
 

@Broncofan the Saints burned me today.. But thank god for wash and Buff. Got all my

momey back. Scary day for sure. 

That's great that you bounced back...but it shows why playing such huge stakes isn't advisable, if you're in it for the long run lol.   I get it if it's really free money - but ask yourself when NO was blowing that game, and BUF was down 7-0, if it felt like it was free money.  If it didn't...then adjust your bets accordingly next week.   BOL!

[Broncofan]

3 minutes ago, N4L said:

Hell yeah, I'm glad I could return the favor! I followed you a bunch of times earlier in the season to great success 

I was all in on Taylor but I went super heavy after reading your tout as well - Monty was one I'd have missed, but in retrospect an easy call (although he only got 13 carries, scary).  I called the Taylor breakout in my team forum, but when you get affirmation, it makes the big play easier to make (I put 10 percent on him, my max bet) - glad when it pays off like that.  

Edited December 14, 2020 by Broncofan

[N4L]

1 minute ago, Broncofan said:

I was all in on Taylor but I went super heavy after reading your tout as well - Monty was one I'd have missed, but in retrospect an easy call (although he only got 13 carries, scary).  I called the Taylor breakout in my team forum, but when you get affirmation, it makes the big play easier to make (I put 10 percent on him, my max bet) - glad when it pays off like that.  

This is exactly what your post last weekend did to me with the colts/Rams bets, so again, I am honored to return the favor. 

I have had incredible runs like this in the past but I have dumped back a bunch of times going overboard with it. I am going to continue to remind myself of those pitfalls and take things slow. I did step up the outlay this weekend because it felt right. I am putting in for a huge withdrawal tomorrow, such a good feeling. 

Basically, I don't want to force anything or get over confident, I've been humbled too many times lol 

[Rainmaker90]

Good Sunday considering that terrible loss on GB. 

 

Baltimore is the play my dudes. Line started them plus 2.5, now they're at -3.

 

I think this game could get out of hand real quick. Must win for Baltimore. 

[Broncofan]

My concern re: those taking BAL - CLE's run game matches up very much like how NE's did.   Teams that use the FB really give BAL's D major problems.  That D uses Calais Campbell & Brandon Williams to clog up the inside and let the speed LB's chase down the RB outside - the FB-based run attacks get a body on the LB at the point of attack.  Add in the blocking WR & 12 personnel they'll use with Njoku/Hooper/Bryant, and very good blocking WR's in Higgins & Landry, it's a very similar formula to NE's success.  BAL's LB's show a lot of vulnerability if they aren't getting clean looks at the RB.

There's no doubt if the game comes down to Baker vs. the pass D, CLE's in trouble.   But that run game, and that OL, are both elite.   BAL had the fortune of meeting CLE week 1, when they were learning to work as a unit with no preseason (RG Teller, RT Conklin and LT Wills joining the team).  Wyatt Teller solidifying the right side with Conklin, and Jedrick Wills, there's an argument that they are in fact the top unit in the game (IND has regressed, although I think Rivers' statue like pocket presence is a big reason for that).    

On D, CLE D had no good answer for Lamar Week 1, and their LB's still mostly suck.  It's just with Garrett & Vernon, and Richardson/Ogjunobi, it's a much bigger problem now.   They can probably afford to bracket Mark Andrews.  Their secondary is an issue, though - Ward's still out, and Greedy Williams seems done for the year.  You put those 2 back in the lineup, man, that's a heckuva D in 2021, provided they upgrade the LB's (Mack Wilson showing some life, though).

The secondary concentrating on Andrews & Brown are why I like Snead so much tonight, FWIW.  It's just a much tougher call with the NE-type run game (but better) that CLE employs.

Edited December 14, 2020 by Broncofan

[SaveOurSonics]

Great wins on Colts -3, Cowboys -3, Bucs -7, Titans -7, WFT +3, and Chiefs -1 (teased it)....

 

....were all completely negated by the Saints losing (teased it to -1), Steelers failing to cover 8.5 points (again, teased), and the Florida Gators losing in epic fashion (had them ML). 
 

Really rough way to end up in a net -$200. Not mad about the Steelers or Gators picks — those things happen — but I am upset in my confidence that the Saints would win with so much uncertainty heading into that game. 

 

We’ll learn from the losses and continue to refine the process. 

[SaveOurSonics]

Probably going to stay away from tonight’s game. Kinda like Kareem Hunt O2.5 receptions at +150 but not sure I’ll pull the trigger. Don’t feel confident either way as to who wins this game. 

Looking ahead to Week 15...

I will likely be putting a lot of $$$ into a Moneyline parlay of BAL (vJAX), LAR (vNYJ), and PIT (vCIN). Three playoff contenders against teams that don’t even look interested in winning. ML parlay should come out in the range of +150-200. I’ll also consider tossing in GB (vCAR), TB (vATL), or BUF (vDEN) into the mix, but there are reasons why I hesitate on all three of those games. Looking for easy money to recover on this weeks losses more than anything. 

I don’t love many of the spreads for Week 15 right now, but I am watching KC -3.5 vNO. The Saints were exposed as a team that will struggle to come from behind without Brees and I would expect that to be the case on Sunday. 

PHI +6.5 vARI is also intriguing. Kyler still doesn’t look right and the Cardinals were gifted RZ opportunity after RZ opportunity in that NYG game and had little to show for it. I think the Eagles can keep it close with this new look offense. 

 

[Ray Reed]

Chargers +1.5 saved me yesterday and brought me back to even.

Have 1.5u on Browns ML tonight at +150

Edited December 14, 2020 by Ray Reed

[Titans_Matt]

I had a 4 team teaser of Steelers +15, Bills +11, Browns/Ravens over 32.5, and Browns +16. So just need the Browns not to completely S*** the bed tonight lol

[SmittyBacall]

15 hours ago, Broncofan said:

For tomorrow, the one player prop that stands out is Willie Snead over 30.5 yards.   He's their go-to guy, and Ward likely goes after Landry.   BOL!  

Ward out. 

15-20 mph sustained wind, 25-30 mph gusts, freezing temperatures.

I kind of like the under in this one at 45.5. Two teams that like to run the ball and milk the clock, coupled with poor passing conditions.

[SmittyBacall]

On 12/13/2020 at 4:19 PM, KhanYouDigIt said:

Made a $20 parlay earlier today:

Titans ML/Bucs ML/Bears ML/Boys ML/Cards ML/ Phins +7 (whew, what a cover by them)/Colts ML/Saints ML/Bills ML

Payout is $1,150

so far 6/6 in the early games. 3 left to go

I, too, lost a big parlay to the Saints. Did very well otherwise, though.

[Titans_Matt]

18 minutes ago, SmittyBacall said:

Ward out. 

15-20 mph sustained wind, 25-30 mph gusts, freezing temperatures.

I kind of like the under in this one at 45.5. Two teams that like to run the ball and milk the clock, coupled with poor passing conditions.

This makes me want to lean Lamar Jackson under 192.5 passing yards with weather conditions like that. He has only hit that mark 3 times this year, two of the times were weeks 1 and 2. He has gone under that mark 5 of the last 6 games, and only threw for 107 in the last game.

 

However, he threw for 275 last time he played the Browns, and as you said Ward is out. Hmmmm......