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BStanRamFan

By BStanRamFan
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N4L

N4L

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I have had such a nice run and there are so many games/props that I like this week, that it almost makes me question if there are too many and I should just pick 3-4. I dont want to go overboard but I do like a lot of different things this week, so I am pulling the trigger


I will give a TLDR at the bottom if you dont want to read the wall of text with my breakdowns lol

On 12/9/2020 at 9:59 AM, Broncofan said:

IND -2.5

I am with you. I am riding the colts -3/2.5 again this week. I love their run D, that will give the raiders a lot of problems. Raiders WRs are very young and the colts secondary is very young, and I dont see the raiders WRs inflicting too much damage this week. Colts are very good at covering TEs so that minimizes wallers impact. 

Seems like Anthony Costanzo will play, thats huge. The colts offense should be able to go up and down the field. Raiders are susceptible to pass catching RBs, rivers loves throwing the RBs and has two guys who can do it (hines, taylor). Taylor's receptions and rec yardage totals will go over. Pittman will be good for easy completions as well (give me his over 4.5 catches) . 

On 12/9/2020 at 9:59 AM, Broncofan said:

I also think over 55 in GB-DET is worth looking at. 

Piggybacking off of this a little bit, I like the greenbay team total over 32. I like them to score a lot of points. I am not sure if Detroit will do enough to keep up, but Rodgers is going to trash the lions secondary with huge plays over the top. lions pass rush is bad, their secondary is bad. Give rodgers time, he will hurt you. I look to lazard to have a sneaky huge game as it seems like he is heating up and MVS just keeps being anti-clutch to the point I think rodgers will look elsewhere with the ball. 

I dont want to rely on detroit to score, even though I think they can.

 

I LOVE the titans -7 this week. The jags have hung around the last few games but I dont think that happens again here. Titans offense is a handful, I just dont see any way that the jags can contain it. Their pass D is bad and with jonnu back, the middle of the field will be wide open. Henry has owned the jags but I primarily think their passing O will give the jags problems, and then henry will get stronger as the game goes on once the jags are forced to try and cover the three headed monster of brown, davis, smith. 

I am slightly worried about a backdoor cover by the jags, they tend to make a late surge in games, but I think the titans know their D is bad and will continue to pile it on and just boat race the crap out of the jags here. Its mike glennon lol hes bad. He is throwing the ball down the field a lot, which could lead to some big plays/quick scores, so I did contemplate the over here, but I think the titans just covering is the better bet. People saw the titans lose last week but forget they did make a nice push in the second half and also thrashed the colts a few weeks before. The titans should be focused and motivated. They arent going to leave any doubt. 

 

Give me the bills -2. This isnt an over reaction from Monday. its a game I would have fired on no matter what happened on monday. All monday did was reaffirm this bet for me. Josh allen is really coming into his own. I think he has cut down on the turnovers. I like him and their weapons against the steelers secondary. Steelers LBs being out is huge. Allen is a guy that can avoid the rush and throw on the run, so the steelers pass rush will be somewhat neutralized. 

Steelers cant run the ball, bills D is rounding into form. They are a complete football team and will handle business.    


I like the over in the Texans bears game. Its moderately low because people think the bears defense is good and their offense stinks. Well, their D has played horrible/disinterested recently. They are not the same defense they were for whatever reason. Watson is that dude and will be able to will them to the 20-25 point range at a minimum. 

The houston defense is bad all around. Arob should feast. I think they have finally figured out how to use david montgomery, I like the over in basically all of his props lol 

I also like seattle -13.5 - seattle off a loss, I like that. Jets after the emotional rollercoaster. Jets pass D is terrible. Who will cover DK metcalf? This is a get right game for seattle. may do this for a very small amount

I also like over in the chargers falcons game. Just seems like its going over. probably a very small amount on this too. 

 

On 12/9/2020 at 9:59 AM, Broncofan said:

WFT +3.5 - I hate that Antonio Gibson is out.  But I love that WAS D.   And Terry Mclaurin is the real deal.    It helps that their supporting cast is starting to come around, they'll need it.   Make no mistake, he's a great story, but QB Alex Smith is still pretty limited, so I do worry what happens if SF takes away Mclaurin, especially with no Gibson.   And for the love of God, please let McKissic work, and don't lean on Peyton Barber.   In the end, I just have so much respect for Chase Young / Montez Sweat and that D.    I think a WFT ML bet isn't crazy, but for parleys, I'll take the points.

I have been thinking about this one a lot as a niners fan and I got a good look at washington the last two weeks. 

Their DL is going to murder us. Its going to be ugly. Our OL wont be able to hold their own in this one. Washington is exactly the type of DL that we struggle with. They are big, physical, and athletic. Look at the eagles game. Everyone, including trent williams, had their *** handed to them.

I am hitting the over in receptions with both Deebo (5.5) and Aiyuk (4.5). Washingtons weakness on defense is their secondary, specifically their corners. Fuller is pretty solid but they lean on him a lot to be more than he is ( imo hes a good #2 CB) and on the other side they have darby, who is not good. The only path for victory for me as a niners fan is to utilize the quick passing game and let these guys do their thing after the catch. It will help slow the pass rush down and is basically all mullens is good at lol this should keep the clock running too. Niners also dont have any other guys who get targets. Deebo and Aiyuk are our only two guys who get significant targets at this point with kittle out and none of our RBs being great at catching passes. 

I actually like the way our defense matches up with the washington offense with gibeson out. Warner is probably the best cover LB in the NFL and TEs dont do well against us. So I dont see logan thomas having a big game like last week. I may look into his under yardage prop. 

The pigskins dont have enough WRs and to attack us the way buffalo did. Our coverage can break down when QBs are mobile enough to buy more time, but that is not alex smith. If you can get in his face, he will take sacks. Terry is certainly a concern, but both of our corners are very good so I dont think he will hurt us toooo much. 

I dont see washington being able to run the ball on us much without gibeson. To me, that says they wont have a lot of sustained drives. I am looking to the under in this game. I know that its low, 43 is not a big number, but both teams are very slow with regards to seconds between snaps, even moreso when you look at them in one possession situations. I think its going to be a field position type game with a lot of punts. I also played washington +3.5 for a small sum on a parlay with heavy ML favorites (packers, titans, bucs, chiefs) so its one of those bets if it loses I will be fine with because the risk is small but it could pay off if it hits  

 

TLDR (no order)

colts -3

J.taylor over rec and rec yards

pittman over rec

Titans -7

Houston over 45

montgomery over everything 

pigskins under

aiyuk/deebo over rec

Bills - 2 (I have it at 1)

GB team over 32

ML Parlay - GB, KC, TB, TEN = +190

 

Again, feels like too many games/plays, but im just going to roll with it lol 

PLAY IT ALL STRAIGHT

Edited by N4L
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Kmart128

Kmart128

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On 12/12/2020 at 3:54 AM, N4L said:

 

Give me the bills -2. This isnt an over reaction from Monday. its a game I would have fired on no matter what happened on monday. All monday did was reaffirm this bet for me. Josh allen is really coming into his own. I think he has cut down on the turnovers. I like him and their weapons against the steelers secondary. Steelers LBs being out is huge. Allen is a guy that can avoid the rush and throw on the run, so the steelers pass rush will be somewhat neutralized. 

Steelers cant run the ball, bills D is rounding into form. They are a complete football team and will handle business.    

Im not understanding what you mean by turnover problems. Josh Allen has never had a lot of turnovers. Just a misconception based on his accuracy  issues. He has never thrown an INT in redzone. And only threw 9 total INTs last year. He did have a fumble issue but many of his fumbles were recovered so they didnt result in turnovers. So im not sure what you mean by turnover problems. He is pretty safe with his misses. They are usually placed were only his guy would have a shot at it 

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KhanYouDigIt

KhanYouDigIt

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6 minutes ago, bigbadbuff said:

I needed the opposite. Of course Flores chooses the fg there. Right call from a game perspective but Christ. 

That illegal motion on the Chiefs final drive killed you.

and the dropped INT and DPI on the Phins final drive lol

Edited by KhanYouDigIt
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