Weekly Bets Thread

[N4L]

I wanted to give a big THANK YOU to @Broncofan who went 4-0 this Sunday on his Indy, Cleveland, Detroit, and LAR bets back on page 49

Two dogs that won outright, one blow out, and one game that was closer than it should have been (Indy could have easily been up multiple scores in that game)

I played det and Cle ML in parlays with each other and also in separate ones with heavy favorites (and Indy/lar ML!). So I absolutely cleaned up

I agreed with you on Indy and LAR especially and because of how much I trust you, it gave me confidence to play huge numbers on both straight bets and in a huge two team parlay, which is why I wanted to say THANK YOU for helping me achieve an absolute monster weekend. It allowed me to fire off some prop bets on Monday because I was so deeply in the black from Sunday and I did really well there again! 

So - STAY HOT MY FRIEND!! 

Edited December 8, 2020 by N4L

[N4L]

Logic says it should be the cowboys +7 tomorrow. Cowboys have a ton of time to prepare and that's always a big help against an option offense. 

Ravens offense hasn't looked good and have struggled to move the ball in the air. Seems like they lack WRs who can consistently beat coverage and/or their play designs are poor (an Achilles heel for Roman). The way to beat the cowboys is through the air. 

Ravens defense matches up really well against the cowboys offense. Their coverage is good and they get after the QB. Tough, physical fronts give the cowboys problems 

I think this is one of those times you throw "logic" out the window and you take the more physical team with more to play for and the better coaching. I really think this is a game where the Ravens rushing offense gets going. I think they will out muscle the cowboys much like the Washington pigskins did. I really see JK Dobbins having a statement type game where he establishes himself as that dude 

So I like the Ravens -7 tomorrow, a lot. 

I am eyeing the chargers falcons over. One of those games where two teams with good QBs don't have anything to play for late in the year and the game becomes a wild shootout. 

Not sure what the buffalo Steelers line will be but buffalo is the better team imo 

[Malfatron]

26 minutes ago, N4L said:

Logic says it should be the cowboys +7 tomorrow. Cowboys have a ton of time to prepare and that's always a big help against an option offense. 

hammer the cowboys all day and take the ML.

cowboys win

[Rainmaker90]

15 hours ago, Rainmaker90 said:

Wash plus 14

SF  plus 6

teaser 

SF ML

Last night did not work out so well.

 

Early look for the week so far, LAC +2.5 vs Atlanta? Atlanta are home favorites now traveling coast to coast?

[MikeT14]

Found Gus Edwards line at 37.5 rushing yards / -114 on Bovada. Taking the under. All three RBs should be back with Dobbins leading the charge. Edwards has eclipsed 37 once in his last four.

[N4L]

14 hours ago, N4L said:

So I like the Ravens -7 tomorrow, a lot.

It was -7 last night on bookmaker, I fired it off. Woke up this morning and its -9. Feeling really good about -7 now because there is no way I would lay 9 points. 

I checked a few other places last night and it was over 8 already, so I think I got lucky with a book not adjusting their line properly lol 

 

 

[Ray Reed]

Got under 46 tonight

Think it ends up something like 27-17 or 24-13 

[BStanRamFan]

 

 "With Mark Andrews likely out, Luke Willson will take his place again tonight as a starting TE. Last week, he saw 37 snaps on offense and I think he sees more targets than the 2 he had last week with RG3 as Lamar loves to target TE's. Dallas is giving up 41.5YPG to opposing TE's.And I don't see anyone else insight to take Willson's snaps away. This number is too low to avoid given the implications. Luke Willson OVER 13.5 Receiving yards"

 

"Since week 8, JK Dobbins has seen touches of 15,12,5, and 15. With all 3 RB's back, I think Harbaugh knows Dobbins is his most talented back and he can prepare him for a playoff push tonight vs. a Cowboys DEF giving up 4.83YPC. The risk here is Dobbins chopping up carries with Ingram and Edwards as both are expected to play tonight. Last week, Edwards rushed for a pitiful 1.1YPC so I think his only competition is Ingram. I feel good about Dobbins getting touches and we'll know early the game script JK Dobbins OVER 55.5 Rush yards"

[N4L]

21 hours ago, N4L said:

So I like the Ravens -7 tomorrow, a lot.

Orlando brown just said it best 

EASY MONEY

[Shanedorf]

22 hours ago, N4L said:

I think this is one of those times you throw "logic" out the window and you take the more physical team with more to play for and the better coaching.
I really think this is a game where the Ravens rushing offense gets going. I think they will out muscle the cowboys

294 yds rushing tonight for the Ravens

[N4L]

6 minutes ago, Shanedorf said:

294 yds rushing tonight for the Ravens

Thank you for editing out the bit about jk Dobbins - it make me look better haha

[SaveOurSonics]

Went with Ravens -2 U52 teaser.
 

Like N4L said, it was a very profitable weekend. Should’ve been even more so but I didn’t trust my gut on the Broncos +13.5 or Bills +2 (feel really dumb about the Bills one in particular). 

Some very interesting lines for the upcoming week. Loving the Colts to cover -2.5 against the Raiders. Teasing the hell out of the Bucs (-0.5 vMIN), Saints (-1 vPHI), Titans (-1.5 vJAX), and Chiefs (-1.5 vMIA). 

[MikeT14]

23 hours ago, MikeT14 said:

Found Gus Edwards line at 37.5 rushing yards / -114 on Bovada. Taking the under. All three RBs should be back with Dobbins leading the charge. Edwards has eclipsed 37 once in his last four.

Well limited to 7 carries put me in good position. 2 huge runs didn't.

[SaveOurSonics]

My long odds ML parlay of the week is Bucs, Chiefs, Seahawks, Saints, Colts, Titans. I got greedy last week with too many teams so I may trim one or two from this list before submitting it. 

Other than that I currently love a parlay of Colts -3 and WFT +3.

[Broncofan]

OK well hoping for a week like last one, those kind of weeks can prop up a whole season.

At first glance, a few lines stand out:

HOU -1 - I know, I know, the Texans D is awful.   And no Fuller, I get it.   But man, the Bears OL is a total mess.   And while I have nothing but respect for the CHI D, again Hicks & Mack might play, but won't be close to 100 percent IMO, given the nature of their injuries.   If they don't play, even better.   If you can't tell the diff between the 2 teams, then it comes down to TO's, QB play and the coaching.   With BOB gone, that means HOU starts with a clear edge in 2/3 areas.   Give me HOU -1.

TAM -6.5 - TAM coming off a bye, the best run D around, and a pass rush that gives bad OL's fits (but gets stymied by top 5 OL's, why they match up so poorly with NO).   Then an O that has issues with good pass rush D's - which isn't the case with MIN with their roster depleted.   Add in that they may be missing Eric Hendricks, and man, this seems like a 10+ pt W for TAM.   

IND -2.5 - trusting Rivers and Reich's love of splitting the RB work is a scary prop, especially with LV's run game.   Both teams are eerily similar on O - they're great front runners, using the run and play-action to get ahead, and that makes the pass game play up.  2 key differences - IND's D is legit, and Jacobs won't be playing for LV.   I worry about the coaching edge Gruden has on Reich (Gruden makes great pre-game plans, it's the 2H adjustments that killed him in his return, he's improved there of late).     But in the end, the rush game & D edge for IND, I'll take the critical -2.5 (I see it's moved to -3 already in some books, I'm OK with that, but obv -2.5 better).  I would feel FAR more comfortable about this if IND would stop giving Jordan Wilkins so many touches.  Taylor's vision and comfort at NFL speed has shown up the last 2 games - use him, that's why you traded up in Rd2 to get him. 

KC -7 - I know, I know, MIA's a really balanced team, and that D is legit.   Where that D has struggled, though - teams that can run and whose pass game isn't centered on 1-2 guys, and who handle blitz schemes with zero deep coverage.   That is an awful matchup strategy vs. Hill / Hardman (if Sammy is out) / Kelce.     And while I really love Flores, Tua is not there yet against good pass D's.   KC's vulnerability is actually the run D - so the MIA OL weaknesses (that Fitzmagic covered up with so well by getting rid of the ball in under 2.5 secs 90+ percent of time) is a huge issue in this matchup.   Out of the 3 favorites I'm taking, I feel the least confident of the 3, but it just still stands out to me as value.

PIT +2.5 - classic case of recency bias.   I hope Spillane is OK, because PIT is OK without Dupree with Highsmith replacing him, but Spillane is harder to replace.    But it's still a pressure D that will give Allen problems - you can't let him stand back and create magic with his legs and that cannon.  PIT's formula to get to the QB quickly is the best foil to his skillset.  On O,  you have to attack BUF with short passing game and the run, and realize T-White will take out 1 WR (I'm guessing Claypool since he runs the deeper stuff).   But Conner's return helps (not so much as a runner, but as a blocker and outlet RB guy, Snell isn't nearly as good in those areas).   It would be better if PIT had a legit run game, but their short pass game (with Claypool / Washington as the deep threats to make D's play the long ball honestly) actually works well vs. BUF's scheme - it's not dependent on 1-2 guys, who BUF can really take out.    Ebron (and the other WR's) can't drop balls, though, as they will get a lot of short game volume.   Still, before this past week, I think PIT would have been the favorite, or a pick' em on the road.    I actually think a ML bet is even better value - but for parleys, I'll take the points.   FWIW, I think PIT will go to +3 at some point, given recency bias, so I may want to wait to lock the number in if you are going spread.

WFT +3.5 - I hate that Antonio Gibson is out.  But I love that WAS D.   And Terry Mclaurin is the real deal.    It helps that their supporting cast is starting to come around, they'll need it.   Make no mistake, he's a great story, but QB Alex Smith is still pretty limited, so I do worry what happens if SF takes away Mclaurin, especially with no Gibson.   And for the love of God, please let McKissic work, and don't lean on Peyton Barber.   In the end, I just have so much respect for Chase Young / Montez Sweat and that D.    I think a WFT ML bet isn't crazy, but for parleys, I'll take the points.

I also think over 55 in GB-DET is worth looking at.  DET's going to get Swift back, and that changes their O so much.  Having said that, their D is abysmal.  On the flip side, GB's D isn't a whole lot better.   My only worry is interim HC Bevell tries to go run heavy to shorten the game - when really, he needs to let Stafford, Swift, Hock & that WR corps loose.    Given it's under 56, I'll go there.

Standard disclaimers - taking these as single-bets, and will take a 6-team parley, and likely combine a few into 2-3 more parleys, but 90+ percent are single game plays.  BOL!

 

 

 

 

Edited December 9, 2020 by Broncofan