Weekly Bets Thread

[SaveOurSonics]

Why do sportsbooks love the 49ers? I’m really confused why they continue to be favored over superior teams. That Rams win really has some staying power. 

I’m also loving TB -6.5.

HOU/CHI I’m probably just going to stay away from (same with ATL/LAC). 

One game you didn’t mention is NO/PHI. Hurts first start might scare some, but if there’s any defense that should be ready for his play style, it’s the Saints who have seen Taysom Hill getting starters reps for multiple weeks now. I like NO -7 there.

KC -7 scares me a bit just because the Phins have the secondary to challenge KC’s pass game and a creative pass rush to prevent Mahomes from getting comfortable. You mentioned the Chiefs defense can be gutted on the ground, and Myles Gaskin is back and rolling. 

I’m personally HAMMERING teasers this week. Take your pick. TB -0.5. NO -1. KC -1. WFT +9. TEN -1. PIT +8.5. I love all of those options. 

[Rainmaker90]

I’m going extra large on Baltimore. -1.5 at Cleveland. I’m still not buying Cleveland. They had a good game vs Tennessee a terrible pass D. Now they’re going against Baltimore?? Go look at Baker’s game log, Tennessee was an extreme outlier. 
 

Baltimore is going to win this game convincing. 

[MikeT14]

Here's my six for the week so far - I am in a team and arguing out some, but we have settled on: Az -2.5, Houston -2.5, Buf +1.5, Ind -2.5, GB -7.5, Bal -1

 

bolded are my picks. I'd rather put TB -6.5 in there, and I do like WFT +4.5

[N4L]

I love the rams -4 tonight and the under 45. (always play them all straight!)

Rams defense limits big plays. They dont let up runs or passes over 20 yards. Just doesnt happen. Their DL is stout and their LBs are tough up the middle. You can get to the edge against them but the pats dont run to the edge all that frequently. The pats offense has not impressed me. Their passing offense in particular is going to struggle. I just dont see a way they move the ball in the air tonight.

Cam is also clearly beat up. They are running him a lot. This is a short week. That doesnt help their cause running the ball. 

The rams have not been throwing the ball vertically. They have been running the ball at a decent percentage this year, especially recently. 

Both of these teams are slow, as in, they both take their time between plays. This is an under game IMO

 

Rams are more talented on offense and I think they will control the game and be in the lead for mostly the entire time. 

I think the game last week between the chargers and pats has everyone over rating the pats. They barely had 300 yards of offense last week, the chargers handed that game to them on a silver platter, completely disregarded the run after they got down 14 points early. They opened up herbert to a ton of pressure and even with that, there were guys open, they just couldnt connect. 

BB had a huge coaching advantage last week. Mcvay will have a better gameplan and will manage in game better than the chargers did. 

I really have no idea why this line has dropped so much, but I am thankful it did as I would have taken the rams -6. Now that its at -4 I think its a no brainer. 

 

I have a lot of thoughts about games this week that I will post later. Wanted to get this out there considering the game is tonight. 

 

Again - always play them all straight. 

[animaltested]

Seahawks at -13.5 seems like a trap. 

Like I know NYJ is dysfunctional, but its going to be a one possession game in the 4th quarter. Thats just how Seahawks games go. And this Seattle offense is a dumpster fire right now and Russ is playing like his Rookie Year. Jets new Def Cord could be looking to make a name for himself and be very aggressive.

Edited December 10, 2020 by animaltested

[Shanedorf]

1 hour ago, animaltested said:

Seahawks at -13.5 seems like a trap. 

Like I know NYJ is dysfunctional, but its going to be a one possession game in the 4th quarter. Thats just how Seahawks games go. And this Seattle offensive is a dumpster fire right now and Russ is playing like his Rookie Year. Jets new Def Cord could be looking to make a name for himself and be very aggressive.

Would it be reasonable to assume that Jamal Adams will be super hyped for this match-up ?

[Broncofan]

2 hours ago, animaltested said:

Seahawks at -13.5 seems like a trap. 

Like I know NYJ is dysfunctional, but its going to be a one possession game in the 4th quarter. Thats just how Seahawks games go. And this Seattle offense is a dumpster fire right now and Russ is playing like his Rookie Year. Jets new Def Cord could be looking to make a name for himself and be very aggressive.

 

1 hour ago, Shanedorf said:

Would it be reasonable to assume that Jamal Adams will be super hyped for this match-up ?

The reason I'm avoiding SEA -13.5 - Pete Carroll's 2H playcalling is SO conservative.   Once SEA goes up, his "let Russ cook" philosophy gets challenged a ton by Carroll's desire to kill clock, and lean on the run game.    As a rule of thumb, if SEA is a 7+ point favorite, I'll usually avoid, or go with the dog.   SEA is more than good enough to win, but take a look at their track record with Carroll, double-digit wins are far are few between.   

My only reservation with taking the Jets are two-fold. First, Denzel Mims is now off Covid protocol, so he's going to miss the game.   That makes NYJ a lot easier to defend, as it's really just Perriman and Crowder to account for.    Second, it's the Jets coming off that brutal L (and believe what you will about the org, the players were gutted to lose that one).  

FWIW, this gamescript lean is the same reason why I don't like NO-7 - I loved them -3 vs. ATL (remember they were one of my 6 picks last week), but true to form, NO gave up a 21-9 lead by going uberconservative in the 4Q.  As long as it's Taysom Hill at QB....I'll see it more to be a 1-score win, with the opponent either keeping it close, or backdooring it as NO lets up with a predictable run-run-pass sequence.

Edited December 10, 2020 by Broncofan

[indifference]

that Rams -4 tonight was easy money! Didnt sweat not once watching tonight..going look at a couple more straight selections sunday

[indifference]

yeah i dont trust seahawks defense screams trap game. Tyler Johnson may have a big day and keep it close. 

[El Ramster]

So I turned 200$ into 1100.. 

 

Im betting

 

Ravens over Clev bet 400$ 

Betting Saints -7 bet 400$ 

 

did a 6 team parlay bet 100$ if I win I get 700$

[El Ramster]

4 minutes ago, indifference said:

that Rams -4 tonight was easy money! Didnt sweat not once watching tonight..going look at a couple more straight selections sunday

You got balls. I stayed the hell away. Kudos to you. 

[El Ramster]

7 hours ago, N4L said:

I love the rams -4 tonight and the under 45. (always play them all straight!)

Rams defense limits big plays. They dont let up runs or passes over 20 yards. Just doesnt happen. Their DL is stout and their LBs are tough up the middle. You can get to the edge against them but the pats dont run to the edge all that frequently. The pats offense has not impressed me. Their passing offense in particular is going to struggle. I just dont see a way they move the ball in the air tonight.

Cam is also clearly beat up. They are running him a lot. This is a short week. That doesnt help their cause running the ball. 

The rams have not been throwing the ball vertically. They have been running the ball at a decent percentage this year, especially recently. 

Both of these teams are slow, as in, they both take their time between plays. This is an under game IMO

 

Rams are more talented on offense and I think they will control the game and be in the lead for mostly the entire time. 

I think the game last week between the chargers and pats has everyone over rating the pats. They barely had 300 yards of offense last week, the chargers handed that game to them on a silver platter, completely disregarded the run after they got down 14 points early. They opened up herbert to a ton of pressure and even with that, there were guys open, they just couldnt connect. 

BB had a huge coaching advantage last week. Mcvay will have a better gameplan and will manage in game better than the chargers did. 

I really have no idea why this line has dropped so much, but I am thankful it did as I would have taken the rams -6. Now that its at -4 I think its a no brainer. 

 

I have a lot of thoughts about games this week that I will post later. Wanted to get this out there considering the game is tonight. 

 

Again - always play them all straight. 

Damm what a ho. Wish I would have read this gem. Nice job what do you think of my bets? 
 

 

[Broncofan]

1 hour ago, El Ramster said:

So I turned 200$ into 1100.. 

 

Im betting

 

Ravens over Clev bet 400$ 

Betting Saints -7 bet 400$ 

 

did a 6 team parlay bet 100$ if I win I get 700$

My only advice - if you just turned 200 into 1100 - don't bet 1100 the next week.   Bankroll management helps you build it up.    Save half your winnings at the very least.  

FWIW, I actually have CLE over BAL, but it's not the bet, it's the bankroll management.   Don't put all your winnings on the line the next week.   You can be the best guy in the betting game - and you're still only going to hit <60 percent of the time.   That also means you're going to go 0-for-3 some weeks too (and esp if 1 of the 3 bets is a 6-leg parley).  Increasing your stake the week after a big win, especially to that level, is about the surest way to crush your bankroll.  

 

Edited December 11, 2020 by Broncofan

[N4L]

58 minutes ago, El Ramster said:

Damm what a ho. Wish I would have read this gem. Nice job what do you think of my bets? 

I think the Ravens are probably the wrong side and will echo broncofans statements above about the saints being unlikely to cover the number 

[Broncofan]

BTW - it's worth mentioning - dogs are winning at a greater than 50 percent rate ATS this year.  Historically they are 40+ percent winners.   If you are only betting favorites, you're likely going off recency bias.    I fell victim to this for 2-3 seasons, but it's a lesson worth noting.    Home field advantage matters so much less this year, and if you aren't taking dogs in some of your plays, think hard about why that is.   It's why I list at least 1-2 dog plays now.