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BStanRamFan

By BStanRamFan
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SaveOurSonics

SaveOurSonics

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, El Ramster said:

I think Seattle wins.. This is a game on paper they should lose.. But WASH is due a L.. They have to cool down. 

If Smith plays, we lost to a worse defense with a worse QB at home in NYG. 

Russ has looked lost when he gets pressured as of late and our RT Brandon Shell (who has been surprisingly good this year) is trending toward being out.

Unless Haskins starts, I’m not touching this game. 

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SmittyBacall

SmittyBacall

Posted
Posted

I really like Pittsburgh -13 @ Cincinnati.

Ryan Finley will likely start, who is closer to being washed out of the league than he is a career back up. Truly awful. He will be set on a tee behind a terrible offensive line versus the leagues best pass rush. I can’t imagine us picking up first downs, let alone scoring. It will likely be 3 and out after 3 and out, causing our defense to wear and things to open up for Pittsburghs somewhat struggling offense. Pittsburghs offensive line struggles/injuries should not be an issue, as we have little to no pass rush. 

27-9 Final

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Broncofan

Broncofan

Posted
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Rainmaker90 said:

Im in extra large on KC -3. This isn't the NO team of a few years ago. They have no fire power. The last place I wanna play KC is in a dome. They have too much speed to play on a fast track, and theres' no way NO will keep up. Brees, Hill, don't matter to me. 

I honestly don't understand how KC dropped from -4 to -3 so quickly.   That's just public money, no sharps are going to dive in right now.   It can't be because of HFA - that's a totally non-factor in 2020.

But mine is not to complain, I've locked that in already too.    Likely the foundation play for next week, along with SF -2.5. 

Edited by Broncofan
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N4L

N4L

Posted
Posted
20 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

Likely the foundation play for next week, along with SF -2.5

I have been meaning to post this one in this thread all week. I pounded the niners -2 already. I would have preferred to wait for some injury news (mostert, Fred Warner) but I knew the line would move and I wanted it less than 3

Pretty simple for me:

Niners have the coaching advantage on both sides of the ball. (Shanahan >>>>> Mike Nolan, Saleh >>> mcarthy) 

Niners rushing offense will dominate the cowboys bad rush d. Mullens turns the ball over when pressured excessively, I don't expect Dallas to get a ton of pressure where this becomes an issue. Niners will lean on the rush offense to set the tone 

Niners D is night and day when they play non mobile QBs. DL is actually pretty stout and the niners rush does get home from time to time against lesser OLs. 

Early time slot isn't great, but the niners are a good road team and they should be able to beat up Dallas on both sides of the ball 

I will be taking the over in Jeff Wilson jr rushing yards, I will be monitoring mosterts availability and taking the over in mostert rushing yards if he plays, and I will eye the aiyuk yardage/receptions totals as well 

Mostert not playing wouldn't be ideal, but I do think we have enough at RB and a run game that can do well with almost anyone running the ball. 

Warner is somewhat irreplaceable and I wonder if he will play if he's not 100%, simply because we are out of it and he's super valuable/hasn't been paid yet. He had a stinger so it's a neck/shoulder thing, so he might not play. Would make me less confident but I really think the niners will run the ball well and do enough in the air to outscore Dallas regardless 

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Broncofan

Broncofan

Posted
Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, N4L said:

I have been meaning to post this one in this thread all week. I pounded the niners -2 already. I would have preferred to wait for some injury news (mostert, Fred Warner) but I knew the line would move and I wanted it less than 3

Pretty simple for me:

Niners have the coaching advantage on both sides of the ball. (Shanahan >>>>> Mike Nolan, Saleh >>> mcarthy) 

Niners rushing offense will dominate the cowboys bad rush d. Mullens turns the ball over when pressured excessively, I don't expect Dallas to get a ton of pressure where this becomes an issue. Niners will lean on the rush offense to set the tone 

Niners D is night and day when they play non mobile QBs. DL is actually pretty stout and the niners rush does get home from time to time against lesser OLs. 

Early time slot isn't great, but the niners are a good road team and they should be able to beat up Dallas on both sides of the ball 

I will be taking the over in Jeff Wilson jr rushing yards, I will be monitoring mosterts availability and taking the over in mostert rushing yards if he plays, and I will eye the aiyuk yardage/receptions totals as well 

Mostert not playing wouldn't be ideal, but I do think we have enough at RB and a run game that can do well with almost anyone running the ball. 

Warner is somewhat irreplaceable and I wonder if he will play if he's not 100%, simply because we are out of it and he's super valuable/hasn't been paid yet. He had a stinger so it's a neck/shoulder thing, so he might not play. Would make me less confident but I really think the niners will run the ball well and do enough in the air to outscore Dallas regardless 

I'm not sure I'll take the Wilson yards, only because we've seen Shanahanigans lol.   But the rest of the premise, yes, all on board.   WAS is a juggernaut D - DAL's is not.   I'd almost think of how SF played vs. the BUF D....and then how SF played vs. the WAS O (DAL is better, but it's comparable).   So yeah, anything less than -3 seems 3+ pts underweight, and gets under the important threshold, so going there bigtime.

One point I'd make - if DAL goes to -3 or more, I'd wait - not because I mistrust SF - but because DAL' s fanbase is so large, I think we'll see a chance for the line to move to -2.5 or better.  Especially if the Mostert & Deebo news filters out publicly (Deebo is out there, but not everyone knows).

Edited by Broncofan
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Rainmaker90

Rainmaker90

Posted
Posted
53 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

I honestly don't understand how KC dropped from -4 to -3 so quickly.   That's just public money, no sharps are going to dive in right now.   It can't be because of HFA - that's a totally non-factor in 2020.

But mine is not to complain, I've locked that in already too.    Likely the foundation play for next week, along with SF -2.5. 

It was a pretty quick drop. I actually think the dome favors KC

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N4L

N4L

Posted
Posted
Just now, Broncofan said:

I'm not sure I'll take the Wilson yards, only because we've seen Shanahanigans lol.   But the rest of the premise, yes, all on board.   WAS is a juggernaut D - DAL's is not.   I'd almost think of how SF played vs. the BUF D....and then how SF played vs. the WAS O (DAL is better, but it's comparable).   So yeah, anything less than -3 seems 3+ pts underweight, and gets under the important threshold, so going there bigtime.

I dont see the prop listed yet, but I am assuming it will be in the 50-60 range for Jeff wilson jrs yards. Im going to fire in confidence

Kyle has made it pretty clear that jeff wilson jr and mostert are his two running backs from both his actions in snap splits, and his comments in press conferences. Coleman is a non factor and mckinnon only plays on third downs (sometimes). Coleman was a gunner on punts last week lol

I get the shanahanigans comment, but Mostert and JWjr are our best two runners without question and we are playing a bad rush D. 

I also like that the cowboys got a win last week while the niners lost. Good bounce back spot for the niners this week 

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SaveOurSonics

SaveOurSonics

Posted
Posted

Who are people putting on upset alert this week? I need to avoid another Saints/Eagles situation. 

My biggest one is Bills -7 @ Broncos. The Bills are flying high after 2 big primetime wins and 2 big division games to close out the year. And in the middle of all that, a trip to Mile High. The Broncos D is top 6 in Pressure%, Sacks, YPA, and Passing TD% (2nd behind only the Rams). The Bills D, meanwhile, are middle of the pack in just about every defensive stat and top 3 in missed tackles. 

The way to beat the Broncos is by predominantly running the football, and the Bills are bottom 10 in YPC and rushing TDs, despite having Josh Allen. 


Legitimate rationale or am I overthinking it? 

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Broncofan

Broncofan

Posted
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, SaveOurSonics said:

Who are people putting on upset alert this week? I need to avoid another Saints/Eagles situation. 

My biggest one is Bills -7 @ Broncos. The Bills are flying high after 2 big primetime wins and 2 big division games to close out the year. And in the middle of all that, a trip to Mile High. The Broncos D is top 6 in Pressure%, Sacks, YPA, and Passing TD% (2nd behind only the Rams). The Bills D, meanwhile, are middle of the pack in just about every defensive stat and top 3 in missed tackles. 

The way to beat the Broncos is by predominantly running the football, and the Bills are bottom 10 in YPC and rushing TDs, despite having Josh Allen. 


Legitimate rationale or am I overthinking it? 

Overthinking it.   Our D are down our top 3 CB's.   Killing us through the air is how to get our D - and it's the Josh Allen airshow.   We also do terribly with mobile QB's.   On the flip side, Drew Lock is a TO machine, and he's not able to make great reads off complex pass D's.  That's BUF's D.   

BUF -6.5 is a strong play IMO.   DEN wouldn't make it to top half of upset picks, TBH.

Edited by Broncofan
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