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Weekly Bets Thread

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Adams tweaked his ankle, but returned. Packers just looked listless vs Jags, no idea what else accounts for that swing
Indy should be able to run the ball on Packers D with ease, but 5 pts is a big swing

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Bears +3.5 is a steal if you can find it. The Vikings are 4-16 at Soldier field since 2000 and they last time they won by more than 3 points was the year 2000. I personally don't think the Vikings win tonight, but if they do win it would definitely be by a FG max.

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Just now, Nozizaki said:

Bears +3.5 is a steal if you can find it. The Vikings are 4-16 at Soldier field since 2000 and they last time they won by more than 3 points was the year 2000. I personally don't think the Vikings win tonight, but if they do win it would definitely be by a FG max.

this is the game that i would absolutely stay away from.

i could really see anything happening here

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didnt like any of the morning games, but loved a lot of later games, so I decided to play small parlays on the morning games of philly -4 and browns -4 with the other legs later games. ugh at the time I didnt care, but looking back knowing the later games won, not going to do anything like that again lol 

I posted in here about how I liked over 50 in LVR/DEN. It was 49 unfortunately. DEN went for 2 late and Juedy stepped out of bounds. Also, denver had a touchdown taken off of the board at the end of the first half. Ugh, so close. That was my favorite of the weekend. 

I have posted here in the past about having both the total of a game and a side, where I split the bet 50-50, thinking that I will split at worst and win both at best. Well I nailed a few games this weekend. Had buffalo +3, the over, had the rams, the under, had the raiders, the over, had pittsburgh, also had NO. I did do some parlays without the early games and also denver/vegas over, and even did a round robin with like 8 teams of 3 legs each. 

Unfortunately went a little heavy on BAL -6 afterwards, but still had an amazing sunday!

 

Looking ahead, I really like KC -6/7. Andy reid after a bye. They own the raiders, and I think they took the raiders lightly/looked past them in the first matchup. I dont think the chiefs will look past them again

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5 hours ago, Nozizaki said:

Bears +3.5 is a steal if you can find it. The Vikings are 4-16 at Soldier field since 2000 and they last time they won by more than 3 points was the year 2000. I personally don't think the Vikings win tonight, but if they do win it would definitely be by a FG max.

I bought the half point to bring it to +3.5 (-120).

I like the Bears to win outright but just in case, I will take the points.

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First negative weekend in a while, it happens. 

Initial leans this week:

Ari +3 - to be clear, SEA should have covered last time.   But I'm basing this off where SEA is at now - without Chris Carson, and with Lockett hurting, PP matches well enough with Metcalf to take the advantage away.   To be clear, I think SEA is still the favorite, but this seems like a 3-pt game, and so I'll take the points (especially with Carroll's total conservative game calling in key situations rearing its ugly head again).

GB +2.5 - I get it, GB's run D is awful...and IND's D is legit.   And JAX gave GB all sorts of trouble, and IND took care of business with TEN.  Here's the thing though - A-Rod is still A-Rod.   As long as Davante Adams is OK, and Aaron Jones can play, adding in Lazard, this is a run/pass combo that IND hasn't seen yet.   Recency bias has really set in IMO - BAL & CLE took this team down (now I get no Leonard with CLE IIRC), and CIN gave them everything they could handle.   Taking IND to win is taking Rivers over A-Rod, and even though the run game has a huge advantage, that's a bridge I'm not willing to cross.   I think GB ML is also in play TBH - IND's W vs. TEN was impressive, but it's piled on W's on CIN/CHI/NYJ/DET/MIN week 2.   L's against CLE/BAL/JAX (ok that was a Rivers special Week 1).    GB isn't a perfect team or even close - but the mismatches here swing GB's way by a wide margin IMO.   Recency bias at its extreme IMO.

MIA -3.5 - DEN's in a spiral.   Lock's been awful, the OL pass pro is awful, the run D is a mess with injuries, and our CB's are our weakest part of our team talent-wise.    Other than that, we should be able to compete   😳.    New wrinkle - Lock's probably playing hurt (oblique/ribs - which if it's on the throwing side, may actually be a cascade injury from his original shoulder injury).    Add in that MIA's D is just at A+ level in confusing QB's, this looks like a 7-10 pt win for MIA.  

KC -6.0 - I get it, OAK played them perfectly last time in KC.  But that was also predicated on KC's OL falling apart in-game with injuries.   Now, LV still matches up better vs. KC than most teams - but KC will be better prepared.   KC has their eyes on the 1 seed, they're not going to let up vs. LV here.   HUGE CAVEAT - need to have both T's clear Covid-19 protocol - but as they did not test positive, and only were contact-precautions, with Mon's placement, they have plenty of time to be re-activated.  That may be a reason for the spread (along with last result), so follow that news closely (but once the OL are activated, count on the spread going over the important 7-pt line).

PIT -10 - yeah, I know, JAX played GB tough.  But GB's D is one of the worst vs. the run.  PIT's is one of the best - and they generate the highest amount of QB pressure.   That's a nightmare with a rookie QB who looks the part.    Add in that PIT's O is running on all cylinders, and Big Ben is not someone who lets up, I'll give the 10 pts here.  

The KC line is the one I think that could move favorably if the OL reports change (the T's are ruled out), but it's already at 6.0 so I I don't see a huge advantage in waiting, given the likelihood both T's play (and Chris Jones returns).   PIT, MIA, GB & ARI, I can easily see the line move to worse #'s, and they're at important thresholds, so I'm locking in MIA / PIT now, and going GB ML single bet wise.   ARI depends on the injury reports, so willing to wait.

Edited by Broncofan
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Love Seattle (-3) on TNF. Young Arizona team coming off an emotional win at home has to go on the road on a short week. Only thing that scares me is that Arizona is 4-1 in last 5 trips to Seattle.

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3 hours ago, Nozizaki said:

Love Seattle (-3) on TNF. Young Arizona team coming off an emotional win at home has to go on the road on a short week. Only thing that scares me is that Arizona is 4-1 in last 5 trips to Seattle.

Rain is in the forecast for Thursday night ; google Russell Wilson in the rain.

Half the team is on the injury report. 

https://www.fieldgulls.com/2020/11/17/21571685/seahawks-49ers-most-injured-teams-nfl-2020-kittle-carson-penny-griffin-lewis-dunbar-seattle-report

Cardinals going to win for sure.

Edited by animaltested

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22 hours ago, Nozizaki said:

Love Seattle (-3) on TNF. Young Arizona team coming off an emotional win at home has to go on the road on a short week. Only thing that scares me is that Arizona is 4-1 in last 5 trips to Seattle.

I would definitely lean the other way, and I don't fully understand how the line is at Seattle -3. The Cardinals were just favored by the same amount vs. the Bills, who absolutely destroyed Seattle. And in the last matchup I'm pretty sure the line was like Seattle -4, and they have only gone downhill from there.

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11 minutes ago, UncleAdamz said:

I would definitely lean the other way, and I don't fully understand how the line is at Seattle -3. The Cardinals were just favored by the same amount vs. the Bills, who absolutely destroyed Seattle. And in the last matchup I'm pretty sure the line was like Seattle -4, and they have only gone downhill from there.

Traditional home field advantage starts at -3.   So when SEA played ARI on the road, they were actually 7 point favorites coming in at -4.   Putting SEA at -3 and them staying there is a 4-pt swing based on traditional methods.   

You can dispute whether or not HFA is as meaningful with limited crowd noise, but that's the reasoning.    Keep in mind that ARI broke Carroll's prime time success streak last time, but Vegas isn't likely to steer away based on 1 game.

I've taken ARI+3 so I feel the way you do, but there's an actual basis for why Vegas started this way.  What's interesting is so far the line's not moved at all.

Edited by Broncofan

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That tweet was a lie not even close to the starting defense.

I love spot plays in the NFL. Buy low on teams and sell high on teams

Seattle -3 buy low on a better team if AZ doesn't make that miracle hail mary this line is -5 at least

Packers ML Rodgers vs Rivers.... Well this one is easy. Rodgers and the Packers playing in a dome where they don't have to worry about any weather easy choice

Titans +5 Just a fade play against the Ravens. The offense line injuries are proven to be to much to overcome and key pieces missing on the Ravens defensive line is not ideal when facing Henry. 

 

 

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Well y'all were right. I still won my Seattle (-3.5) but that easily could've been a 2 point win for Seattle. Definitely not the blowout I thought we were in for.

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On 11/19/2020 at 3:37 PM, agarcia34 said:

That tweet was a lie not even close to the starting defense.

I love spot plays in the NFL. Buy low on teams and sell high on teams

Seattle -3 buy low on a better team if AZ doesn't make that miracle hail mary this line is -5 at least

Packers ML Rodgers vs Rivers.... Well this one is easy. Rodgers and the Packers playing in a dome where they don't have to worry about any weather easy choice

Titans +5 Just a fade play against the Ravens. The offense line injuries are proven to be to much to overcome and key pieces missing on the Ravens defensive line is not ideal when facing Henry. 

 

 

Bought outta the Titans play. Titans injuries takes away any advantage 

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+14000 on Nyheim Hines for 120 rushing yards and 2 TDs. Worth it to gamble a couple bucks on that imo

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