MikeT14 Posted November 13, 2020 Share Posted November 13, 2020 11 minutes ago, agarcia34 said: Still taking the Colts. Just locked it in. Just like this spot for them and I honestly think the Titans are overrated. Just need Rivers to not blow this Took a couple interesting bets and props. Titans by 1-13 is +170. Tannehill to throw for more yards than rivers is +170. I like one to hit *shrug* Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted November 13, 2020 Share Posted November 13, 2020 (edited) On 11/10/2020 at 11:32 PM, Broncofan said: OK for TNF....when faced between 2 evenly matched teams, go with the better QB. So I'll go TEN -2. Really interested in IND pass game props for the WR's if they are behind. Immediate leans off the spreads released: TB -4.5 - this has dropped 2 pts following SNF. This is a major overreaction IMO. I like CAR's coaching, but the talent gap is massive, and the matchups are a huge problem. And if CMC is ruled out, man...TB anger game. SEA +2 - Aaron Donald & Jalen Ramsey can be negated with great QB play and more than 1 WR who can ball out - that's SEA. I know SEA's D is struggling - but LAR's O is so one-dimensional, I don't see this. I'm tempted to take the ML TBH. MIA -2.5 - it's all about LAC travelling out east - and that MIA D being able to pose problems for Herbert & Allen. Sadly, super-talented LAC team finds a way to lose, so 2.5 is pretty decent to take. PIT -7 - don't believe the narrative that Big Ben might miss the game. He's been tested negative, and his locker was next to Vance McDonald. That to me increases his chances of testing negative throughout - and we've seen the "will he/won't he play" with injuries before - he always plays if it doesn't need surgery. On the flip side, the PIT pass rush feasts on bad OL's and CIN's OL gets destroyed by elite pass rushes. Love Burrow, but this is a terrible spot. BAL -7 - it's not based on the MNF game - it's that NE's D is absolutely decimated. Without a pass rush or stout run D - that plays into BAL's frontrunner style. And on the flip side, with Isiah Wynn hurting, that's another awful matchup vs. BAL's upgraded pass rush. NE won't have a fully healthy Damien Harris, and I think Cam's hurting. This seems like a 10+ pt get-right W for BAL. I get that dogs have been doing much better this year, so I am nervous taking 5 out of 6 favorites. I'm posting these because I do think the line is only going to increase, why I'm taking them now, before they cross the important 7/7.5 or 3 pt thresholds (whereas TAM I think is way below appropriate pricing at around 7). We'll see. Take Mia -2.5 off the board - losing 2 key starters on front 7 to Covid list that was a big part to neutralizing Herbert & co. Edited November 13, 2020 by Broncofan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmittyBacall Posted November 13, 2020 Share Posted November 13, 2020 @N4L @Forge What’s your read on SF this week? Is it wise to take NO in my survivor? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N4L Posted November 13, 2020 Share Posted November 13, 2020 39 minutes ago, SmittyBacall said: @N4L @Forge What’s your read on SF this week? Is it wise to take NO in my survivor? Yes, absolutely. I don't see a scenario where the niners win. Took us scoring 40 last year and we just don't have the same firepower as we did last year. Our defense is also significantly worse this year than last because we have no edge rush due to poor roster construction I actually think the saints are going to cover 10 points rather easily as well. You can see my full breakdown of why I think this game won't be close here: Tartt is going on IR. We are without our starting slot corner as well. Last year the saints went right after Marcell Harris from the first play of the game. He is bad everywhere except for in the box and I suspect the saints will come out in ,3-4 wr sets and attack the deep part of the field, considering we are thin in the secondary and have no pass rush Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forge Posted November 13, 2020 Share Posted November 13, 2020 1 hour ago, SmittyBacall said: @N4L @Forge What’s your read on SF this week? Is it wise to take NO in my survivor? Is it wise? Probably not...but not because of anything to do with the 49ers lol. I have to imagine that no team has been responsible for more Survivor game deaths than New Orleans over the last decade lol. But yeah, this should be a pretty easy W for the saints. I'm starting the saints Defense in my big money fantasy league as a streamer if that tells you anything Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shanedorf Posted November 13, 2020 Share Posted November 13, 2020 https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EmuRpMBXcAAROy4?format=jpg&name=900x900 everybody can beat anybody - graphic shows how NFC is just crazy this year Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Apparition Posted November 13, 2020 Share Posted November 13, 2020 51 minutes ago, Shanedorf said: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EmuRpMBXcAAROy4?format=jpg&name=900x900 everybody can beat anybody - graphic shows how NFC is just crazy this year In fairness, you can make one of these any year that there isn't an 0-16 team. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N4L Posted November 13, 2020 Share Posted November 13, 2020 I like the over in the raiders broncos game a lot, especially if denvers corners are out again. The raiders are throwing the ball down the field a lot more, I like how their run game has looked recently as well. I also think denver has the weapons on the outside to put up some points. According to the link below, denver is one of the fastest teams in the NFL based on seconds between plays: https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/nfl/pace-stats/2020 So I like Oakland to score, and I like denvers pace and weapons to score enough to push the game over 50 Waiting on clarity on denver's corners, but I think this will be my biggest bet of the weekend. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fray32 Posted November 15, 2020 Share Posted November 15, 2020 Put a nominal sum on the 49ers +10 (just enough to recoup my fliers on random golfers at The Masters). Looking pretty good so far, the idea was that despite all the injuries, Kyle Shanahan offensive schemes usually give the Saints defense trouble and this line felt a little high bc of the Bucs blowout last week. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greene N White Posted November 15, 2020 Share Posted November 15, 2020 54 minutes ago, Fray32 said: Put a nominal sum on the 49ers +10 (just enough to recoup my fliers on random golfers at The Masters). Looking pretty good so far, the idea was that despite all the injuries, Kyle Shanahan offensive schemes usually give the Saints defense trouble and this line felt a little high bc of the Bucs blowout last week. If brees doesn’t get hurt 0% chance this hits Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fray32 Posted November 16, 2020 Share Posted November 16, 2020 38 minutes ago, Greene N White said: If brees doesn’t get hurt 0% chance this hits Two muffed punts and a 60 yard return on another for the Saints. Suffice it to say this has been a highly volatile game (unfortunately) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greene N White Posted November 16, 2020 Share Posted November 16, 2020 1 hour ago, Fray32 said: Two muffed punts and a 60 yard return on another for the Saints. Suffice it to say this has been a highly volatile game (unfortunately) Saints muffed a punt too Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shanedorf Posted November 16, 2020 Share Posted November 16, 2020 WOW, that's an amazing swing in Packers vs Colts game. Opened with Packers (- 2.5) and swung all the way to the Colts (- 2.5) We''ll see what happens the rest of the week, but a 5 point swing is notable. Last week the sharp bettors created a similar swing in Titans vs Colts with Titans opening as the favorite ( -2) , but then the money came in on Colts (-1) at closing time https://www.vegasinsider.com/nfl/matchups/matchups.cfm/week/11/season/2020 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fray32 Posted November 16, 2020 Share Posted November 16, 2020 8 minutes ago, Shanedorf said: WOW, that's an amazing swing in Packers vs Colts game. Opened with Packers (- 2.5) and swung all the way to the Colts (- 2.5) We''ll see what happens the rest of the week, but a 5 point swing is notable. Last week the sharp bettors created a similar swing in Titans vs Colts with Titans opening as the favorite ( -2) , but then the money came in on Colts (-1) at closing time https://www.vegasinsider.com/nfl/matchups/matchups.cfm/week/11/season/2020 What's up with this? Do the Packers have any serious injuries? Like Davante Adams or anyone big like that Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malfatron Posted November 16, 2020 Share Posted November 16, 2020 1 minute ago, Fray32 said: What's up with this? Do the Packers have any serious injuries? Like Davante Adams or anyone big like that no if anything packers are getting more healthy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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