Strasburg, Natinals Agree to 7 year/$245MM Deal

[ramssuperbowl99]

4 minutes ago, redsoxsuck05 said:

This is good for baseball. We need more Lerners and less John Henrys.

And less of whomever is Acuña and Albies’ agent.

This is square down the middle of what I want free agent contracts to be. It's aggressive, just teetering on stupid. For all the Strasburg did as a National when he was drafted, he deserves to ride off in the sunset with stacks on stacks.

[mse326]

I'm gonna be honest, I think that is too much for Stras. He's a 31 year old power pitcher. He just topped 200 innings for the first time since 2014. He's only topped 5 WAR twice. $35 a year is already too much, but then for that long as well?!

If Stras is worth this Cole is worth 40+/yr easy for a similar or even longer length of time.

[Leader]

Joel Sherman -  Cole’s final payday is now expected to exceed $300 million — and not by a penny or two. Nine years at $324 million is $36M on avg per year and that is probably not a bad over/under. What Strasburg signed for would move me to take the over on Cole.

[Slateman]

52 minutes ago, mse326 said:

I'm gonna be honest, I think that is too much for Stras. He's a 31 year old power pitcher. He just topped 200 innings for the first time since 2014. He's only topped 5 WAR twice. $35 a year is already too much, but then for that long as well?!

If Stras is worth this Cole is worth 40+/yr easy for a similar or even longer length of time.

I don't think he's a power pitcher anymore. He incorporated a two seamer this year, he's gotten better control of his curveball, and his change up is better than most splitters. His repitore will transition well into age. A lot like Grienke. 

The two issues I have with it are:

1. He never stays healthy.

2. Rendon was much more valuable.

[ramssuperbowl99]

1 hour ago, mse326 said:

I'm gonna be honest, I think that is too much for Stras. He's a 31 year old power pitcher. He just topped 200 innings for the first time since 2014. He's only topped 5 WAR twice. $35 a year is already too much, but then for that long as well?!

If Stras is worth this Cole is worth 40+/yr easy for a similar or even longer length of time.

But those 2 instances happened in 2 of the last 3 seasons, and that doesn't include the postseason this year which probably adds another 1ish WAR to a total that was already north of 5. And even though he's only had 2 5 WAR years, he's almost averaged 4 WAR/season, so he's been a solid All-Star type guy for a decade.

I'll totally admit, that's not a $250MM player. But over 7 years, he's worth, what? Maybe $175MM? That might be a little light. Knock off $20MM for deferrals, and they gave him $50MM for winning the WS, and having a Nationals cap on his Hall of Fame bust. As a fan of a team with 2 Hall of Famers, if Yelich told the Brewers "I want $30MM+ for my Hall of Fame cap", I'm ripping his hand off.

LIS originally, it's aggressive and just teetering on stupid. That's where free agency should be.

[sdrawkcab321]

SMH when will these teams learn 

[FalconFan13]

This makes me really happy as a braves fan as i would much rather them overpay for stras by a bit than to bring back rendon who i think is the better player of the 2 by a good bit and scares me alot more when the braves face them.

[mse326]

2 hours ago, ramssuperbowl99 said:

But those 2 instances happened in 2 of the last 3 seasons, and that doesn't include the postseason this year which probably adds another 1ish WAR to a total that was already north of 5. And even though he's only had 2 5 WAR years, he's almost averaged 4 WAR/season, so he's been a solid All-Star type guy for a decade.

I'll totally admit, that's not a $250MM player. But over 7 years, he's worth, what? Maybe $175MM? That might be a little light. Knock off $20MM for deferrals, and they gave him $50MM for winning the WS, and having a Nationals cap on his Hall of Fame bust. As a fan of a team with 2 Hall of Famers, if Yelich told the Brewers "I want $30MM+ for my Hall of Fame cap", I'm ripping his hand off.

LIS originally, it's aggressive and just teetering on stupid. That's where free agency should be.

Even if we are aggressive with a WAR value then you are getting him right on target for what's expected now and then eating a lot later. It may have been two of the last 3 seasons but the problem hasn't been his stuff but ability to stay on the field. I don't buy that that magically changed for him. I still don't think can expect more than 4-4.5 WAR a season from him. That throwing motion is still scary. I don't think this is teetering on stupid, I think it is stupid. He's only been worth $230.4M over the last 7 years. Given his age I see no reason we should even expect him to match that let add to it. I think we also have to recognize that in 6 of his 8 full seasons his ERA has been above his FIP. He hasn't and likely won't provide as much value as his WAR indicates.

I also disagree with some of what you are ok with. You should spend based on what you are expecting to get, not what they've done. I get that there is an unspoken think with the league and PA that that is how it should work because they underpay players as they start, but the latter part is what needs changing. And I sure as hell am not spending $7M a year for a hall of fame cap.

I also won't knock off money for deferrals because that deferred money still counts to the AAV for luxury tax purposes so still "prevents" other signings. I never care about money just for money's sake, it comes out of the owners pocket so I don't care. I only care about salary to the extent it effects what else a team can and/or will do. Deferred money rarely changes that. Also given that this a pretty significant overpay, at least imo, I think they would have been far better off paying Rendon what he wanted. If we take what they said at their word and they can only afford one this does exactly that, by preventing them from signing him.

[Fresh Prince]

9 years for a pitcher 

3 hours ago, Leader said:

Joel Sherman -  Cole’s final payday is now expected to exceed $300 million — and not by a penny or two. Nine years at $324 million is $36M on avg per year and that is probably not a bad over/under. What Strasburg signed for would move me to take the over on Cole.

Nine years? Good luck 

[mse326]

3 hours ago, Slateman said:

I don't think he's a power pitcher anymore. He incorporated a two seamer this year, he's gotten better control of his curveball, and his change up is better than most splitters. His repitore will transition well into age. A lot like Grienke. 

The two issues I have with it are:

1. He never stays healthy.

2. Rendon was much more valuable.

I'll agree his FB% has been declining, but the MPH while down is still averaging 94. And the pitch that has seen the biggest useage increase is the curve which isn't really any better from an arm health standpoint. And like you said he is still throwing an 88MPH change. Maybe he isn't a power pitcher anymore in that he just throws hard. He has learned to "pitch" but still relies heavier than most on his velocity.

[Leader]

15 minutes ago, Fresh Prince said:

9 years for a pitcher  Nine years? Good luck 

Maybe not. Who knows. By then his FB wont break 80mph and he'll have to morph into the most expensive knuckleball pitcher in MLB history....but hopefully we'll have won a WS or two. Who can say? LOL 

[BayRaider]

This money went to way better use than put on Bryce. Nats are smart. 

[Slateman]

8 hours ago, mse326 said:

I'll agree his FB% has been declining, but the MPH while down is still averaging 94. And the pitch that has seen the biggest useage increase is the curve which isn't really any better from an arm health standpoint. And like you said he is still throwing an 88MPH change. Maybe he isn't a power pitcher anymore in that he just throws hard. He has learned to "pitch" but still relies heavier than most on his velocity.

There is zero evidence that one pitch is "healthier" than another. If we were looking for some sort of correlation, I'd say the elimination of his slider did more for his health than any other pitch.

His fastball velo has dropped almost 2mph in two seasons. This coincides  with him altering his delivery to basically eliminate a windup. At the same time, he's utilized his other pitches more.

In 2017, he didn't have a two seamer and threw his four seamer over 50% of the time.

2018, he tinkered with a two seamer, throwing it 7% of the time and throwing his curve ball a little less while trying to develop a slider. He throws his 4 seamer 45% of the time

2019: Strasburg all but drops the slider (he threw 12 according to FG). Instead, he has fully committed to the 2 seamer, throwing it 18% of the time, while spinning that curveball a hair over 30% of the time. He is throwing a fastball (of any variety) less than 50% of the time. 

Strasburg isn't a power pitcher anymore. At best, he's some sort of hybrid between a finesse pitcher, and what's more likely is that removing the windup from his delivery has decreased his velo, making him focus on his mechanics and his ability to pitch. He will continue to lose velo, but I don't think it will be as dramatic. And losing 3-5 mph on his change and curve won't diminish those pitches. God help hitters if Sanchez teaches him how to do that big, looping curve.

 

 

[Slateman]

5 hours ago, BayRaider said:

This money went to way better use than put on Bryce. Nats are smart. 

Was it? Stras has never cracked 6 WAR, and Bryce just put in a respectable, but down, 4.6 WAR for 10 million less. I feel like getting Bryce from age 26 to 38 at 25 million a year is a better investment than getting Stras from age 31 to 38 at 35 million a year. Also, this would have made Eaton somewhat tradeable, reducing payroll further. 

None of this accounts for clubhouse atmosphere though. 

[1ForTheThumb]

16 hours ago, ramssuperbowl99 said:

Holy crap was that a valuable opt out.

But Kris Bryant told me players don't get paid anymore.