ramssuperbowl99 Posted March 10, 2020 Share Posted March 10, 2020 (edited) 10 minutes ago, Bullet Club said: Perhaps I stopped reading it too early It's how the articles are written. They talk about a peak in July or something. How this model appears to work is that you start off with a naive population (let's say 1,000 people because I'm lazy). Then one person is infected. Then that person infects some number of other people (called R0, in this case like 2.5) over some incubation period (in this case a few days). Then, those other newly infected people will come in contact with the rest of the population, and each of them will infect [R0*(fraction of the population that is still naive)], which in this case is 2.5*0.999 since 999/1000 people in the same still are naive. With each incubation time the model processes, the fraction of the population that is naive shrinks, which eventually limits the number of people who can reasonably still be infected and causes the spread to slow down. Edited March 10, 2020 by ramssuperbowl99 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heimdallr Posted March 10, 2020 Share Posted March 10, 2020 44 people dead in Iran from alcohol poisoning due to trying to ward off the virus. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rob_shadows Posted March 10, 2020 Share Posted March 10, 2020 (edited) 14 minutes ago, ramssuperbowl99 said: It's how the articles are written. They talk about a peak in July or something. How this model appears to work is that you start off with a naive population (let's say 1,000 people because I'm lazy). Then one person is infected. Then that person infects some number of other people (called R0, in this case like 2.5) over some incubation period (in this case a few days). Then, those other newly infected people will come in contact with the rest of the population, and each of them will infect [R0*(fraction of the population that is still naive)], which in this case is 2.5*0.999 since 999/1000 people in the same still are naive. With each incubation time the model processes, the fraction of the population that is naive shrinks, which eventually limits the number of people who can reasonably still be infected and causes the spread to slow down. It's important to note though that the current belief of health officials is that the virus is NOT spread by a person when they are in the the incubation period before they start having symptoms. Edited March 10, 2020 by rob_shadows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theJ Posted March 10, 2020 Share Posted March 10, 2020 Just now, Heimdallr said: 44 people dead in Iran from alcohol poisoning due to trying to ward off the virus. If only someone had predicted this would happen. Oh wait. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charles_Darwin 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ramssuperbowl99 Posted March 10, 2020 Share Posted March 10, 2020 2 minutes ago, rob_shadows said: It's important to note though that the current belief of health officials is that the virus is NOT spread by a person when they are in the the incubation period before they start having symptoms. Yeah sorry I didn't do a great job of explaining this, but there is some time where the virus has infected someone and they aren't contagious, and another time length where they are. The model would add in the extra incubation lag accordingly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rob_shadows Posted March 10, 2020 Share Posted March 10, 2020 13 minutes ago, ramssuperbowl99 said: Yeah sorry I didn't do a great job of explaining this, but there is some time where the virus has infected someone and they aren't contagious, and another time length where they are. The model would add in the extra incubation lag accordingly. We lucked out on that one... Could be a lot worse if it was spreadable before you start showing symptoms (as I believe the flu can but I may be wrong about that). Unfortunately for a lot of people simply staying home when they are sick is a very difficult option so when with the virus only spreadable once you start showing symptoms there are still going to plenty of people out and about with it. Even more unfortunate is many of those people who don't get sick days and such are in the service industry and come into contact with the public regularly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theJ Posted March 10, 2020 Share Posted March 10, 2020 1 hour ago, Heimdallr said: 44 people dead in Iran from alcohol poisoning due to trying to ward off the virus. I actually just found that article. They didn't die from alcohol poisoning in the sense that people probably are thinking. They died because someone used methanol instead of ethanol to make the brew. EDIT: or, at least some of those 44 did. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ramssuperbowl99 Posted March 10, 2020 Share Posted March 10, 2020 Oh god the NCAA tournament just got the dreaded "vote of confidence". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BobbyPhil1781 Posted March 10, 2020 Share Posted March 10, 2020 Coachella has been postponed. What will the basic b's do?? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malfatron Posted March 10, 2020 Share Posted March 10, 2020 Just now, JTagg7754 said: Coachella has been postponed. What will the basic b's do?? tik tok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shanedorf Posted March 10, 2020 Share Posted March 10, 2020 1 hour ago, ramssuperbowl99 said: Yeah sorry I didn't do a great job of explaining this, but there is some time where the virus has infected someone and they aren't contagious, and another time length where they are. The model would add in the extra incubation lag accordingly. This diagram below is for HIV, but in general it shows the lifecycle of a viral infection First the virus binds to your cells, then it shoots its load of DNA/RNA into your cells, then that load takes over the production machinery in your cells and makes more virus , which are then shed into the bloodstream. The virus uses your cells to do its bidding, it can't last long without a host ( the actual survival time outside your body is not currently known) During that load-shooting period you are not as contagious, once you start shedding new virus, you are more contagious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BobbyPhil1781 Posted March 10, 2020 Share Posted March 10, 2020 43 minutes ago, Malfatron said: tik tok But they could be extra basic at Coachella w/ Tik Tok. Now they're just going to be basic basic which I'm sure they're basically fine w/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winitall Posted March 10, 2020 Share Posted March 10, 2020 1 hour ago, ramssuperbowl99 said: Oh god the NCAA tournament just got the dreaded "vote of confidence". Not a good sign for fans wanting to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ramssuperbowl99 Posted March 10, 2020 Share Posted March 10, 2020 2 minutes ago, winitall said: Not a good sign for fans wanting to go. God this sucks. I just want to get drunk and eat too many chicken wings and let my brain melt for like 2 days watching basketball. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winitall Posted March 10, 2020 Share Posted March 10, 2020 5 minutes ago, ramssuperbowl99 said: God this sucks. I just want to get drunk and eat too many chicken wings and let my brain melt for like 2 days watching basketball. To be honest, I could see them attempting to still have the tourney just without fans in the stands. I have a hard time seeing them completely cancel it if there is another solution. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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