Bears Reportedly Seeking Dalton

[Heinz D.]

6 hours ago, AZBearsFan said:

2019 Dalton was not better than 2018 Mitch. He wasn’t even better than 2019 Mitch. Pre-2019 Dalton isn’t any better or worse than Carr, who is presumably available because the Raiders don’t think he’s good enough to win the Super Bowl having 6 years of evidence on him. Dalton hasn’t been anything more than average at his best for 4 seasons now. At least there’s hope Mitch is more than what we saw in 2018 and certainly 2019. 

And your underlying argument is that the Bengals over the last couple of years, were superior teams to the Bears, during that same span of time?

That's...a REALLY weird argument to make, IMO. 

Also, the deference to authority cop-out on Carr is beyond lame. Everybody who follows football knows Carr is a better quarterback than Dalton, and probably worth another shot. Absolutely no one in the football media arena is talking about how Carr sucks. 

But--there is hope Mitch proves something, going forward. How MUCH hope depends on who you talk to...

[AZBearsFan]

2 hours ago, Heinz D. said:

And your underlying argument is that the Bengals over the last couple of years, were superior teams to the Bears, during that same span of time?

That's...a REALLY weird argument to make, IMO. 

Also, the deference to authority cop-out on Carr is beyond lame. Everybody who follows football knows Carr is a better quarterback than Dalton, and probably worth another shot. Absolutely no one in the football media arena is talking about how Carr sucks. 

But--there is hope Mitch proves something, going forward. How MUCH hope depends on who you talk to...

I’m not arguing Cincinnati’s been superior I’m contending that Dalton himself hasn’t been good for years. But, since you went there, skill position wise on offense has Cincinnati over the past several years not been at least equal to the 2019 Bears? Outside of 2019 Dalton always had AJ Green which is at worst a push with Robinson. Mixon is better than Montgomery. Tyler Boyd is better than Miller. Eifert and Uzomah are certainly superior to our 2019 TEs. OL wise I think it’s a relative push.

Also, gimme a break with the deference to authority copout crap. I am entitled to my own opinions on Carr and Dalton same as you or anyone else. I’ve yet to have anyone explain in any logical way why I shouldn’t believe my own eyes in what I see watching him play or why I shouldn’t read into his own team seemingly being willing to give up on him 8-10 years before his career will likely end when it directly supports what I observe on my own. Carr is better than 2019 Mitch and I’ve never disputed that but I’ve been steadfast in saying our standard in trading for a long term starter has to be higher than that, and Carr doesn’t meet that for me. He might meet that for others and that’s fine - we aren’t required to agree. 

[WindyCity]

There is so much smoke around this Dalton thing.

It is such a “meh” move.

[AZBearsFan]

1 hour ago, WindyCity said:

There is so much smoke around this Dalton thing.

It is such a “meh” move.

For me any acquisition we make at QB other than drafting a QB at 43 or 50 will be a meh move, and even at that unless that QB at 43/50 is Hurts it’ll still be a meh move for me. Burrow/Tua/Herbert/Love will be long gone, I’m not really into Eason, and Fromm is uninspiring to me as anything more than a lower end game managing starter or higher end backup. Hurts’ elite intangibles and playmaking off schedule against top college competition gives him more potential to me than the other two to develop into a legitimate long term starter. I’m still not highly into taking a round 2 QB but if we do then Hurts is the only one who really interests me. 

[RJ_11]

5 hours ago, WindyCity said:

There is so much smoke around this Dalton thing.

It is such a “meh” move.

I don't think there's anything other than meh that we can do at QB this off-season. I'm on board with Dalton, not expecting him to save the franchise, but he's the best of a bad bunch and would absolutely be an upgrade. 

I don't even know whether I want us to draft one high anymore (would still like to take one in the 4th). Originally wanted us to use one of the 2nd round picks on a QB, but what's the chance that pick comes good really. Rather get Dalton in, and swing again at QB early in the 2021 draft.

[WindyCity]

5 hours ago, RJ_11 said:

I don't think there's anything other than meh that we can do at QB this off-season. I'm on board with Dalton, not expecting him to save the franchise, but he's the best of a bad bunch and would absolutely be an upgrade. 

I don't even know whether I want us to draft one high anymore (would still like to take one in the 4th). Originally wanted us to use one of the 2nd round picks on a QB, but what's the chance that pick comes good really. Rather get Dalton in, and swing again at QB early in the 2021 draft.

For me Carr would be above "meh" but probably not worth the price tag.

 

Hurts would interest me as I think he could grow into something, but I doubt Pace goes that direction.

[AZBearsFan]

53 minutes ago, WindyCity said:

For me Carr would be above "meh" but probably not worth the price tag.

 

Hurts would interest me as I think he could grow into something, but I doubt Pace goes that direction.

I’m not convinced Hurts makes it to 43 anyway. I could definitely see him going round 2 to the Chargers or Colts if they pass on Herbert and/or Love in round 1. 

[WindyCity]

1 minute ago, AZBearsFan said:

I’m not convinced Hurts makes it to 43 anyway. I could definitely see him going round 2 to the Chargers or Colts if they pass on Herbert and/or Love in round 1. 

Pace trades up... #conviction

[beardown3231]

Some of the NFL’s most accomplished quarterbacks aren’t sure how far their employers will go to keep them. The Los Angeles Chargers already cut ties with Philip Rivers, an eight-time Pro Bowl choice. Nick Foles, the Super Bowl MVP two years ago, is available by trade. Former league MVPs Tom Brady and Cam Newton face uncertain futures.

Meanwhile, the Chicago Bears sound like they’ll embrace a fourth season of Mitch Trubisky, despite failing to reach even 17 points in 43 percent of his career starts, an unusually poor percentage. Even if the Bears add competition or insurance for Trubisky, which seems likely, the hottest topic in Chicago sports begs for historical comparisons. Have teams in similar situations stayed the course with their quarterbacks and lived to brag about it?

The Bears cannot score

Before getting into the comps, let’s revisit the stat about Trubisky failing to reach even 17 points in 43 percent of his starts. The table below ranks starting quarterbacks over the past three seasons by percentage of starts when their teams scored at least 17 points (including the playoffs). Trubisky ranks 22nd among 23 quarterbacks with at least 32 regular-season and postseason starts over the past three seasons. Chicago has a winning record on the strength of its defense, but it fell to 8-8 last season and missed the playoffs.

2017-19 Starting QBs (min. 32 starts)

RANK	QB	% STARTS WITH 17+ POINTS
1	Patrick Mahomes	97.20
2	Drew Brees	91.50
3	Ben Roethlisberger	88.20
4	Aaron Rodgers	87.80
5	Deshaun Watson	87.50
6	Jameis Winston	86.80
7	Tom Brady	85.50
8	Carson Wentz	85.40
9	Russell Wilson	84.30
9	Jared Goff	84.30
11	Philip Rivers	84.00
12	Matt Ryan	79.60
13	Cam Newton	78.80
14	Kirk Cousins	77.60
15	Matthew Stafford	77.50
16	Andy Dalton	72.50
17	Dak Prescott	70.00
18	Marcus Mariota	66.70
18	Joe Flacco	66.70
20	Eli Manning	62.90
21	Case Keenum	60.00
22	Mitch Trubisky	57.10
23	Derek Carr	55.30
	Totals	77.90

 

The Trubisky comps: Freeman, Locker & Co.

The search for comps for Chicago and Trubisky involves finding teams that, like the Bears in 2019, struggled on offense with a highly drafted (first-round) young quarterback still on his rookie contract. Five other teams over the past decade fit the description to varying degrees. Like the Bears, they averaged 16-18 offensive points per game, which typically ranks among the bottom third of the NFL. The Bears were 29th last season with 16.5 offensive points per game. They scored 21 against Oakland in the one game Trubisky missed. That was Chicago's fourth-highest total for offensive points last season.

The table lists Chicago and the five comps in reverse chronological order, beginning with the Bears. The final column shows ESPN's Total QBR for each quarterback in that season, with 50 representing average on the 100-point scale.

Trubisky Comparisons

SEASON	TEAM	QB	YEAR	OFF PPG	ESPN QBR
2019	Bears	Mitch Trubisky	3rd	16.5	39.5
2018	Bills	Josh Allen	1st	16.3	49.8
2012	Titans	Jake Locker	2nd	16.6	40
2012	Dolphins	Ryan Tannehill	1st	16.7	49.7
2012	Rams	Sam Bradford	3rd	16.3	52.9
2011	Buccaneers	Josh Freeman	3rd	16	46.1

Those are not the comps Bears fans hoped to see. None of those quarterbacks has won a playoff start with his original team. Tannehill broke through with Tennessee this past season, scoring two postseason victories without reaching 90 yards passing in either game. Of those quarterbacks, Trubisky and Allen remain in the early stages of their careers. Both play for teams with formidable defenses. Their teams have winning records in their starts as a result. But both quarterbacks must improve to justify their draft status and future long-term investments by their employers.

Some teams in the table were going to stick with their young first-round quarterbacks regardless of performance. The Dolphins' Tannehill (2012) and the Bills' Allen (2018) were coming off their rookie seasons. Locker (2012) was coming off his second NFL season and first as a starter. Those three were going to get additional time. The Buccaneers' Freeman (2011) and the Rams' Sam Bradford (2012) matched Trubisky's timeline. Both were coming off their third seasons, the same as Trubisky is now. The Bradford comparison breaks down because knee injuries derailed his career. That leaves Freeman as the most relevant comp.

The Freeman comp

Freeman, like Trubisky, enjoyed a statistically successful winning season in the second year of a three-year starting run. A first-round pick in 2009, Freeman's second season looked good: 25 touchdown passes, six interceptions, 69.5 Total QBR, 10-6 starting record. The following season was a struggle: 16 touchdowns, 22 interceptions, 46.1 QBR, 4-11 record.

ESPN Total QBR (0-100 scale)

YEAR	FREEMAN	TRUBISKY
1	37	32.4
2	69.5	71
3	46.1	39.5
4	46.8	TBD

A lot changed for Freeman and the Buccaneers from 2010 to 2011. They dropped from ninth to 27th in offensive expected points added (EPA). Their defense also cratered, falling from 18th to 32nd in EPA. That defensive decline put pressure on Freeman to win games that were much harder to pull out.

On average, the divide between winning and losing in the NFL falls between 22 and 23 points allowed (or scored, depending on the point of reference). Allow 22 or fewer and a team will usually win. Allow 23 or more and it will usually lose. The cutoff provides a useful framework for evaluating win-loss records.

In 2010, Freeman's record was 9-1 when the Bucs allowed 22 or fewer points. Freeman kept winning those games in 2011, going 4-0 in them, but there were many more starts in which Tampa Bay's opponents lit up the scoreboard. Freeman was 0-11 in his third season when opponents scored more than 22 points. His turnovers contributed to the problem.

Unlike Freeman in Tampa Bay, Trubisky can count on strong defensive support. The Bears rank first in defensive EPA over the past three seasons.

Chicago has allowed 22 or fewer points in 74 percent of Trubisky's starts. That is the highest percentage among the 23 quarterbacks with at least 32 total starts over the past three seasons. Trubisky has a 21-10 record in those games for a .678 win rate that sounds impressive but ranks 18th among those 32 starters. Top quarterbacks win those games almost all the time. The record is a combined 106-6 (.950) over the same three-year period for Roethlisberger, Brady, Mahomes, Rodgers and Brees.

Trubisky has a 2-9 record when the Bears allow more than 22 points. Freeman was 2-19 in those games over his first three seasons. The 23 quarterbacks with the most starts since 2017 won 30 percent of those games. Mahomes (13-7) had the best record. Flacco (0-15) and Manning (3-20) were the only ones with lower winning percentages than Trubisky over that stretch, but the sample size for Chicago is small.

Comps aren't everything, but something must change

Tampa Bay brought Freeman back as its starter after his poor third season, the same as the Bears are contemplating with Trubisky. Freeman's conventional stats bounced back in 2012 as he set career highs with 4,065 yards and 27 touchdown passes, but he had six touchdown passes with 10 interceptions during a 1-5 finish. Freeman ended that season with a Total QBR in the 40s for a second consecutive season. A few months later, Tampa Bay used a third-round pick on quarterback Mike Glennon. Freeman made three more starts.

The Bears have similar decisions to make heading into Trubisky's fourth season.

"I don't think Trubisky processes well and that is a problem," an evaluator said. "They can wait until the end of next season to make a change, but if they do that, I think they lose and they are in a tough spot. I'd rather make the change now, say I missed on the quarterback but fixed the problem and we won."

What happened with Freeman a decade ago isn't going to affect the Bears in 2020. Every situation is different. Chicago's defensive strength should allow the Bears to compete, especially if they improve their personnel around Trubisky, which general manager Ryan Pace has outlined as a top priority.

"It doesn't look good for Trubisky if Freeman and Locker are the most relevant comps, which I think they are from this list," another evaluator said. "Freeman was the quarterback for a 10-6 team (in 2010). He had a good year. So did Trubisky when they went to the playoffs (in 2018). Freeman's undoing was more maturity, and that is not Trubisky. I think from a style-of-play and size standpoint, Trubisky and Locker are comparable. You think you can win with them without being sure they can take you all the way

 

Good article here from Sando of the Athletic

[Heinz D.]

20 hours ago, AZBearsFan said:

Also, gimme a break with the deference to authority copout crap. I am entitled to my own opinions on Carr and Dalton same as you or anyone else. I’ve yet to have anyone explain in any logical way why I shouldn’t believe my own eyes in what I see watching him play or why I shouldn’t read into his own team seemingly being willing to give up on him 8-10 years before his career will likely end when it directly supports what I observe on my own. Carr is better than 2019 Mitch and I’ve never disputed that but I’ve been steadfast in saying our standard in trading for a long term starter has to be higher than that, and Carr doesn’t meet that for me. He might meet that for others and that’s fine - we aren’t required to agree. 

And that's perfectly fine. But we don't even know for sure that the Raiders ARE hell-bent on getting rid of Carr. So that isn't in any way proof he isn't a desirable quarterback. 

[AZBearsFan]

37 minutes ago, Heinz D. said:

And that's perfectly fine. But we don't even know for sure that the Raiders ARE hell-bent on getting rid of Carr. So that isn't in any way proof he isn't a desirable quarterback. 

The discussion around Carr has always been under the assumption (and largely widespread reporting) that he can probably be had for trade compensation that we can afford. Whether that’s true or not doesn’t change the fact that he’s not a desirable QB to me. 

[topwop1]

On 3/8/2020 at 7:12 PM, Heinz D. said:

And your underlying argument is that the Bengals over the last couple of years, were superior teams to the Bears, during that same span of time?

That's...a REALLY weird argument to make, IMO. 

Also, the deference to authority cop-out on Carr is beyond lame. Everybody who follows football knows Carr is a better quarterback than Dalton, and probably worth another shot. Absolutely no one in the football media arena is talking about how Carr sucks. 

But--there is hope Mitch proves something, going forward. How MUCH hope depends on who you talk to...

I follow football a lot and I don't think Carr is a better QB than Dalton but hey what do I know?

[Heinz D.]

2 hours ago, topwop1 said:

I follow football a lot and I don't think Carr is a better QB than Dalton but hey what do I know?

Okay...we're wasting our time with all this. We, well, we just are.

But, I'll proceed anyway. 

Do you think Carr is worse, or do you feel they're comparable? 

[G08]

Are we punishing Trubisky for his season with John "I brag about winning a game with only I passing plays called" Fox? 

Remove that season and his percentage goes up to roughly 65%, a touch below Dak Prescott. 

[SteelKing728]

It could work out for you guys like Tanehill worked out for Tennessee.

I think a 4th could make it work. Trubisky shouldn't go without competition this season.