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Coronavirus (COVID-19)


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24 minutes ago, naptownskinsfan said:

Just read an article that said the NYC outbreak was traced to Europe due to "subtle mutations" in the virus.  Not sure I like where that is headed or if that's normal.  They also said Mount Sinai researchers believe that the virus was present there at some point in January.  

Its normal, it will mutate every time it replicates like all other life forms, so its pretty easy to compare virus in people over the world to map out the spread

This mutates relatively slowly compared to flu, etc. which should help us on the vaccine front

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1 hour ago, ramssuperbowl99 said:

The way he described it was that Bill was the kid you had in your college lecture who never went to class, never had to pay attention, walked into the final, aced it in 5 minutes and walked out except it was at a PhD stats/epidemiology level

aka mission

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10 minutes ago, dtait93 said:

My father in law owns a construction company here in Orlando. Fortunately, his business was deemed essential. But I thought we were only keeping, “essential” businesses open that are necessary for life? Who’s defining this stuff? Other businesses should have been given the same opportunity to adjust. Instead, we’re at 700k+ jobs lost and counting with many of those businesses supplying those jobs gone forever. Hopefully the economy bounces back in a big way. The longer this country wide lockdown continues the worse it will get. Depending on the government to handout money is...lol

Yea, no one was even given a chance to adjust.  A couple of my step fathers clients have asked them to continue to work, it is two guys re modeling a home where the home owners are staying elsewhere.  Not sure how that violates any social distancing but hey, who needs a pay check! I know a few people who have tried to either a) file for unemployment or b) request money from the small business program. Zero luck so far, in fact the small business one claimed that multiple banks have already had to shut down their application process due to lack of funds and my brother was told he has to go wait inline in person for the unemployment because the online system is down.  Yes, go congregate with a bunch of other people because we forced you out of work.  Smart.  

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Speaking of natural immunity:

Quote

 The cruise ship Diamond Princess had 3,700 passengers and crew on board and all were exposed to covid19 because there were enough infected passengers to begin with and the ship was quarantined long enough (two weeks) under conditions that allowed everyone on board to be exposed. Nearly all were tested and 19.6 percent tested positive..............

It seems 80% are immune.

Quote

South of Libya and North Africa there are a lot Chinese doing business in rural areas where there is also a lot of fighting by rebels or other armed groups. Chinese are a growing presence in Africa where they are making large investments in mining and other enterprises. As a result there is a lot of travel between China and Africa and covid19 showed up in Africa but has not become an epidemic. The public health systems in Africa are far less capable as those in the rest of the world, like China and Chinese researchers discovered that Africans are less likely to catch covid19 because they have one fifth as many cellular receptors in their lungs than Chinese. That difference enables covid19 to cause breathing problems more, or less, readily. Other researchers found that this genetic difference was most helpful for Africans and most harmful for East Asians. People in other parts of the world have less resistance to covid19 than Africans.

https://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htatrit/articles/20200410.aspx

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3 hours ago, mission27 said:

Its normal, it will mutate every time it replicates like all other life forms, so its pretty easy to compare virus in people over the world to map out the spread

This mutates relatively slowly compared to flu, etc. which should help us on the vaccine front

Hopefully the immunity front as well...

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2 hours ago, TVScout said:

Speaking of natural immunity:

It seems 80% are immune.

https://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htatrit/articles/20200410.aspx

I'm not sure that would be my conclusion tbh 

The passengers were all confined to their rooms at some point, its quite possible many of them were never exposed or never exposed enough to ever be at risk of getting sick or mounting an immune response.  That seems more plausible imo than thinking 80% have natural immunity to a novel virus

I do wonder how many of those 80% though actually were infected and simply fought it off before they were tested, i.e. no 'natural immunity' but they never got sick / were completely asymptomatic.  We'd need antibody testing to know for sure

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3 minutes ago, mission27 said:

I'm not sure that would be my conclusion tbh 

The passengers were all confined to their rooms at some point, its quite possible many of them were never exposed or never exposed enough to ever be at risk of getting sick or mounting an immune response.  That seems more plausible imo than thinking 80% have natural immunity to a novel virus

I do wonder how many of those 80% though actually were infected and simply fought it off before they were tested, i.e. no 'natural immunity' but they never got sick / were completely asymptomatic.  We'd need antibody testing to know for sure

Antibody testing might not even give you the answer. If someone fought it off quickly their immune system never had time to get a read on the surface protein of the virus, there's not going to be a strong immune system response that you would be able to measure. 

But that's very quickly getting into if a tree falls in the forest and no one is around to hear it territory.

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18 minutes ago, ramssuperbowl99 said:

The vaccine/immunity front are the same thing, just one is synthetic and the other is natural.

Oh yeah, I know that. I just meant hopefully the fact it mutates slow= a natural immunity for a long length of time since the body may remember how to fight it off. Antibodies aren't the only way to produce immunity, which I'm sure you know. 

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4 hours ago, acowboys62 said:

 

Side Effects
Blurred vision, nausea, vomiting, abdominal cramps, headache, and diarrhea may occur. If any of these effects persist or worsen, tell your doctor or pharmacist promptly.

Yes...a medicine with side effects, shocking. 

If it was just an issue of a “medicine with well documented side effects having those side effects,” those would have been taken into account prior to the study beginning. Ergo, it wouldn’t have killed the study unless it appears to be causing devastating side effects at a rate outside of acceptable ranges.

For example, the type of thing that would kill the study might be that instead of a 5% cardiac event among patients who have the virus, we’re seeing a 12% rate among patients who have the virus and also have taken the drug. That’s the type of thing that ends these studies that quickly—that the drug being used in that scenario is compounding the issue it’s trying to prevent.

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