Coronavirus (COVID-19)

[Shady Slim]

2 hours ago, mission27 said:

The MoL stands for...

 

Borderline alcoholism

 

lol

[naptownskinsfan]

1 hour ago, Blahstoise said:

A study that just came out has the R0 at 5.7, just published through the CDC

And here is the link- https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-0282_article

[mission27]

3 minutes ago, naptownskinsfan said:

And here is the link- https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-0282_article

woah

thats wild

1918 flu was 1.5-3

[TwoUpTwoDown]

1 hour ago, Blahstoise said:

A study that just came out has the R0 at 5.7, just published through the CDC

Makes sense considering no one has had the virus before and how long it survives outside of a host.

[rob_shadows]

Projected number of deaths in the U.S continues dropping dramatically. 

Last week projections were between 100,000 and 200,000

Two days ago projections were 80,000

Today the projection is 60,000

So the new R0 estimation is considerably higher than previously thought yet projected deaths continue to drop...so the question is and will always be does that mean the social distancing measures just worked that well....or were people overreacting to begin with? 

I tend to think it's a bit of both personally. 

[mission27]

1 minute ago, rob_shadows said:

Projected number of deaths in the U.S continues dropping dramatically. 

Last week projections were between 100,000 and 200,000

Two days ago projections were 80,000

Today the projection is 60,000

So the new R0 estimation is considerably higher than previously thought yet projected deaths continue to drop...so the question is and will always be does that mean the social distancing measures just worked that well....or were people overreacting to begin with? 

I tend to think it's a bit of both personally. 

Yep

CFR is lower than people give credit for

And the social distancing has worked, as it did in China, as it did in Europe

[acowboys62]

2 hours ago, dtait93 said:

She initially went because she has been having a very hard time breathing at night. A little context on that specifically - she saw a neurologist and after a sleep study it was confirmed she has severe sleep apnea. Doctor ordered her an MRI of her brain but she’s not able to get in to any imaging center for over a month because of everything going on. So, if every night you can’t breath, and you can’t get any immediate further testing to figure out what’s going to fix the problem, then what else do you besides go to the hospital when you feel like your dying? 

Anyways, her friend takes her to the hospital and she tells the nurse her symptoms. Doctor comes in and listens to her lungs and tells her they sound wet. They run an ECG (standard protocol basically), chest X-ray, and a CT scan of her chest and it all apparently comes back normal. Doctor tells her she’s fine and that it’s allergies (even though she’s never had them in her life) and they send her home. As she’s leaving the nurse calls her back and tells her that they actually found something on her ECG. So then they decide to run a COVID test and they transfer her to a different hospital where she’s admitted because they said it takes 12 hours for the results to come back. They monitor her breathing over night and her oxygen levels were perfect, however they don’t run an MRI on her brain because they only do that for stroke patients (which no idea how that’s the case when they ran one on my wife last year and she didn’t have a stroke). Then a few hours ago they released her and never told her the results.

So hopefully she doesn’t die in her sleep from not breathing when it could have been avoided if they just did the MRI she has to wait a month to get (and then wait for the results, and then wait again for an appointment with her neurologist after she gets the results). And also hopefully she doesn’t have COVID

What a crap show that must have been.  I hope your wife fells better and you get some answers sooner rather than later. 

[vikesfan89]

11 minutes ago, rob_shadows said:

Projected number of deaths in the U.S continues dropping dramatically. 

Last week projections were between 100,000 and 200,000

Two days ago projections were 80,000

Today the projection is 60,000

So the new R0 estimation is considerably higher than previously thought yet projected deaths continue to drop...so the question is and will always be does that mean the social distancing measures just worked that well....or were people overreacting to begin with? 

I tend to think it's a bit of both personally. 

Can we question whether New York needs 30-40,000 more ventilators yet?

[BullsandBroncos]

Can't wait for this to be over soon. Thank god

[mission27]

51 minutes ago, vikesfan89 said:

Can we question whether New York needs 30-40,000 more ventilators yet?

Tbh it’s actually starting to sound like the ventilators may be doing more harm than good in some situations 

[ramssuperbowl99]

1 hour ago, rob_shadows said:

Projected number of deaths in the U.S continues dropping dramatically. 

Last week projections were between 100,000 and 200,000

Two days ago projections were 80,000

Today the projection is 60,000

So the new R0 estimation is considerably higher than previously thought yet projected deaths continue to drop...so the question is and will always be does that mean the social distancing measures just worked that well....or were people overreacting to begin with? 

I tend to think it's a bit of both personally. 

The model with the 60,000 death figure you're quoting assumes constant social distancing through August 4th (and doesn't simulate beyond then). See the relevant portion of the article below, or click the FAQ link on this page https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america:

Quote

Will we need social distancing until there is a vaccine?

Our model suggests that – with social distancing maintained throughout – the end of the first wave of the epidemic could occur by early June.

That type of model works really well for informing your decision making for this wave, but doesn't account for any cases/deaths when restrictions are loosened or when this goes on long enough that compliance drops. This is acknowledged directly as a missing component:

Quote

Why do your estimates only go until July? Does that mean the outbreak will be over then?

Our model says that social distancing will likely lead to the end of the first wave of the epidemic by early June. The question of whether there will be a second wave of the epidemic will depend on what we do to avoid reintroducing COVID-19 into the population. By end the of the first wave of the epidemic, an estimated 97% of the population of the United States will still be susceptible to the disease, so avoiding reintroduction of COVID-19 through mass screening, contact tracing, and quarantine will be essential to avoid a second wave.

That 97% figure is hugely important given the news that we just learned from this paper, which is that the higher R0 means the bar for successful herd immunity is now much higher. From the paper:

Quote

The R0 values we estimated have important implications for predicting the effects of pharmaceutical and nonpharmaceutical interventions. For example, the threshold for combined vaccine efficacy and herd immunity needed for disease extinction is calculated as 1 – 1/R0. At R0 = 2.2, this threshold is only 55%. But at R0 = 5.7, this threshold rises to 82% (i.e., >82% of the population has to be immune, through either vaccination or prior infection, to achieve herd immunity to stop transmission).

 

To look at these results in tandem and conclude that this was an overreaction or hysteria is basically an admission you either aren't reading or understanding the fine print or even really the point of the model estimates that we are currently using. I don't want that to come off as mean here, but it kinda is what it is. 

tl;dr battle is looking better, war has just begun

Edited April 9, 2020 by ramssuperbowl99

[Xenos]

20 minutes ago, ramssuperbowl99 said:

The model with the 60,000 death figure you're quoting assumes constant social distancing through August 4th (and doesn't simulate beyond then). See the relevant portion of the article below, or click the FAQ link on this page https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america:

That type of model works really well for informing your decision making for this wave, but doesn't account for any cases/deaths when restrictions are loosened or when this goes on long enough that compliance drops. This is acknowledged directly as a missing component:

That 97% figure is hugely important given the news that we just learned from this paper, which is that the higher R0 means the bar for successful herd immunity is now much higher. From the paper:

 

To look at these results in tandem and conclude that this was an overreaction or hysteria is basically an admission you either aren't reading or understanding the fine print or even really the point of the model estimates that we are currently using. I don't want that to come off as mean here, but it kinda is what it is. 

tl;dr battle is looking better, war has just begun

All of this. It's nice that things are getting better but context matters. And it's annoying that some people are going to run wild the other way and said that it wasn't that serious to begin with.

Edited April 9, 2020 by Xenos

[Xenos]

Our governor Newsom doing great work. Though if I was the governor, I would be too afraid to take a calculated risk like this to help others. That's why I would never run for office.

 

[vikesfan89]

35 minutes ago, mission27 said:

Tbh it’s actually starting to sound like the ventilators may be doing more harm than good in some situations 

Really? I haven't heard that

[Xenos]

1 hour ago, vikesfan89 said:

Can we question whether New York needs 30-40,000 more ventilators yet?

This was the initial estimate based on scientific projections during a time when NY was the epicenter of all this. And lest we forget, other people need ventilators as well that are not Covid19 related. Glad things seem to be peaking for NY right now but let's not jump the gun yet.