Coronavirus (COVID-19)

[WizeGuy]

40 minutes ago, Shanedorf said:

Bill & Melinda are funding the COVID19 Therapeutic Accelerator and he's briefed on everything going on in terms of vaccine/drug development
He's also acutely aware of the power his words carry and is trying to be as conservative and circumspect as the situation calls for. He's not trying to get elected, he doesn't care about share prices and he's had a wealth of experience in other global health issues over the last decade.

In short, he's the perfect guy for this effort and I am thrilled to see how he has helped to bring together a coalition of public and private enterprises to fight the fight. You have to remember that Pharma/Biotech companies operate in a world of confidentiality and competition, getting them to work together is no small thing and we'll all benefit in the end, but that doesn't happen without the leadership of a powerful and respected man like Bill.

Exactly. I cannot believe some people are adamantly against him, and trending some BS conspiracy theories. He's playing an essential role in finding a vaccine. As you said, bring all these enterprises and resources together isn't an easy task. If a vaccine comes out and is mass produced within the next year Bill should win a Nobel Prize (assuming he played a role).

[mission27]

8 minutes ago, ramssuperbowl99 said:

This is precisely what is going to happen, but I bet it's way less gradual on at least the first boom-bust cycle. If you look at polling data, there are more than enough idiots who are going to immediately endanger themselves that cases will spike back up.

Something to keep in mind when it does is that we've put in 5 weeks social distancing/quarantine already just to get this back on the downswing. We're gambling with a lot of progress when we open things back up.

But on the flip side, we had tens of thousands of people crowding into Madison Square Garden and people on cruise ships literally days before shelter in place

So while its taken us a while to get numbers down, it also took us months to get to where we were, and was fueled by the fact that we took zero steps to mitigate 

I think theres a very good chance if you keep limits on large gatherings and do the other things we are talking about that you never get back to where we were a month ago.  And if you continue to suggest high risk populations distance more than others, the people who do get sick will be less of a burden.  (again I'm talking about suggesting, not mandating people stay home.. .before anyone says I'm creating a caste system... it should be a choice educated by your own personal risk)

[ramssuperbowl99]

1 minute ago, mission27 said:

But on the flip side, we had tens of thousands of people crowding into Madison Square Garden and people on cruise ships literally days before shelter in place

So while its taken us a while to get numbers down, it also took us months to get to where we were, and was fueled by the fact that we took zero steps to mitigate 

I think theres a very good chance if you keep limits on large gatherings and do the other things we are talking about that you never get back to where we were a month ago.  And if you continue to suggest high risk populations distance more than others, the people who do get sick will be less of a burden.  (again I'm talking about suggesting, not mandating people stay home.. .before anyone says I'm creating a caste system... it should be a choice educated by your own personal risk)

We were also at ~100-500 new cases/day nationwide when the restrictions were put in place. We don't know what the new case/day numbers will look like when restrictions start to get eased up, but it seems highly unlikely the numbers will be that low.

So even if people behave better than they did before, that's going to be more than offset by the higher case numbers.

[mission27]

7 minutes ago, ramssuperbowl99 said:

Yeah the logistics seem difficult for much of anything beyond international travel. But let's take the general idea, which at it's most vague would be something like "immune people could get a head start", and instead of dismissing it or bringing up WW2, let's brainstorm off of it. 

Instead of a documented antibody test, a decent proxy would be a previous positive COVID test. Will that work often enough that we could save the logistical tests? 

Alternatively, how about non-contact thermometers instead of mAb tests?

How about designing seating recommendations for public events (when they do start back up) where you sell limited tickets/section so there is enough space, and then encourage people to go immune - not immune - immune - not immune - etc. to try and artificially make us look more herd immune than we are

You could go on and on like this. Will all of the ideas be good? No. Do antibody passports seem like the world's most feasible idea? Definitely not. But the thought process for a problem this complicated has to be more constructive than what's been shown in this thread so far.

I agree with these other ideas

Immunity passports imo are a uniquely dangerous and counter-productive idea, that doesn't mean there aren't other things we can do to reduce R0 while getting back to our lives, like the things you mention

[mission27]

1 minute ago, ramssuperbowl99 said:

We were also at ~100-500 new cases/day nationwide when the restrictions were put in place. We don't know what the new case/day numbers will look like when restrictions start to get eased up, but it seems highly unlikely the numbers will be that low.

So even if people behave better than they did before, that's going to be more than offset by the higher case numbers.

Eh but that's only because we had limited testing, there were clearly millions of cases by the time we hit the pause button 

If you look at the trend in deaths and hospitalizations it wouldn't be shocking if the number of active cases today is already below where it was on March 13th and by the middle/end of May it certainly will be

That plus more limited distancing will not prevent all cases, but I have a hard time believing we get another NYC March/April type explosion again if we do the right things

[ramssuperbowl99]

Just now, mission27 said:

Eh but that's only because we had limited testing, there were clearly millions of cases by the time we hit the pause button 

If you look at the trend in deaths and hospitalizations it wouldn't be shocking if the number of active cases today is already below where it was on March 13th and by the middle/end of May it certainly will be

k

[MWil23]

Effective by May 12, per Governor DeWine's orders, all business employees and consumers must wear facial coverings, such as grocery stores, retail, etc. All other restaurants/haircuts/etc. will remain closed through May 15, and likely June 1.

[MWil23]

Just now, MWil23 said:

Effective by May 12, per Governor DeWine's orders, all business employees and consumers must wear facial coverings, such as grocery stores, retail, etc. All other restaurants/haircuts/etc. will remain closed through May 15, and likely June 1.

@theJ @NateDawg @LETSGOBROWNIES I'm watching the presser now.

[TLO]

31 minutes ago, WizeGuy said:

Exactly. I cannot believe some people are adamantly against him, and trending some BS conspiracy theories. He's playing an essential role in finding a vaccine. As you said, bring all these enterprises and resources together isn't an easy task. If a vaccine comes out and is mass produced within the next year Bill should win a Nobel Prize (assuming he played a role).

But would he win a Noble Prize?

[LETSGOBROWNIES]

5 minutes ago, MWil23 said:

@theJ @NateDawg @LETSGOBROWNIES I'm watching the presser now.

Meh, I don’t even know anymore.

Not sure I’m even able to make a rational decision with how bored I am tbh.

[mission27]

Updated NYC antibody test shows 25% of the population infected

That's about 2,100,000 people.  Suggests about a 0.5% CFR based on current number of deaths.  Higher than in many other places, which really shows the impact of overwhelmed healthcare system, but still much lower than models assumed

[MWil23]

10 minutes ago, LETSGOBROWNIES said:

Meh, I don’t even know anymore.

Not sure I’m even able to make a rational decision with how bored I am tbh.

X2 checking in. I’m no longer “All In” on this, and I’m probably in the top 10% on rational thinking in our nation. 

[ramssuperbowl99]

19 minutes ago, mission27 said:

Updated NYC antibody test shows 25% of the population infected

That's about 2,100,000 people.  Suggests about a 0.5% CFR based on current number of deaths.  Higher than in many other places, which really shows the impact of overwhelmed healthcare system, but still much lower than models assumed

If these tests are accurate and precise enough that we really had 25% of NYC infected, that's tremendous news for the long term. I'm skeptical without knowing more about the validation of the tests themselves, but if we are already at 25% infected herd immunity is going to win sooner rather than later.

[TVScout]

https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/cuomo-outlines-reopening-roadmap-for-new-york-as-daily-deaths-hit-lowest-level-in-weeks/2390949/

[mistakey]

19 minutes ago, ramssuperbowl99 said:

If these tests are accurate and precise enough that we really had 25% of NYC infected, that's tremendous news for the long term. I'm skeptical without knowing more about the validation of the tests themselves, but if we are already at 25% infected herd immunity is going to win sooner rather than later.

just need another 110k to die!