1.26 - Jordan Love [QB; Utah State] - QB1

[AlexGreen#20]

Just now, Iskra said:

You pause, yes. But then you reach a sober conclusion.

I feel like they dipped into the 90 proof a bit too early.

You get a magic wish. You can wish away Rodgers and all ill effects of his contract. 

That's 36.5 million in 2021 and 40million in 2022. '

Do you do it? I think I would.

[Macc_Aviv]

1 minute ago, Danger said:

Sorry missed a word "late 1st round", not "late round".

The best weapon left is easily Mims. Maybe you guys come away with Hamler or Shenault tomorrow, wouldn't be so bad. Mims may or may not have put you guys over the top, but if you never help Rodgers by getting him more weapons then you'll never know. Your front office so far seems to be content to let the status quo go and not try to bring in reinforcements for Rodgers.

I don't think there is 'easily' a best weapon left as you state. Some may see it as Mims, but for me Shenault is a home run. If I asked you to write down all your firm opinions on this draft class today, and we looked at it 5 years from now, we'd probably have a laugh at the guys you thought were a sure thing, and there would probably be some later drafted guys who you liked a lot who turned out well where you could say I told you so. This is far from an exact science. And the people actually making these picks are working 12 to 14 hour days, rewatching entire games where you just saw a Youtube breakdown. Talking to middle school, high school and college coaches familiar with the prospects while you watch a couple interviews or read an article. Not to say everyone doing the job is good at it, or that your opinion means nothing. But it is far from the exact science you are making it sound like, and the people actually making the decisions here have access to far more information than the general public. 

[flyers0909]

7 minutes ago, Danger said:

I just looked back over the years and am only recalling it based off memory. But the only names that weren't busts between 13-32 in basically this entire millenium were Aaron Rodgers and LaMar Jackson. It's proven that trading up for these inflated stock QB prospects hasn't proved successful. Rodgers was expected to go higher but didn't. Though so was Brady Quinn and that still didn't work out.

In the past 10 years 1-12

2010 - 1.1 Sam Bradford
2011 - 1.1 Cam Newton
2011 - 1.8 Jake Locker
2011 - 1.10 Blaine Gabbert
2011 - 1.12 Christian Ponder
2012 - 1.1 Andrew Luck
2012 - 1.2 Robert Griffin
2012 - 1.8 Ryan Tannehill
2014 - 1.3 Blake Bortles
2015 - 1.1 Jameis Winston
2015 - 1.2 Marcus Mariota 
2016 - 1.1 Jared Goff
2016 - 1.2 Carson Wentz
2017 - 1.2 Mitch Trubisky
2017 - 1.10 Pat Mahomes
2017 - 1.12 Deshaun Watson
2018 - 1.1 Baker Mayfield
2018 - 1.3 Sam Darnold
2018 - 1.7 Josh Allen
2018 - 1.10 Josh Rosen

I'm being pretty conservative and 1-12 has such a better history given draft capital?  You're also talking about a sample size of 8 QBs drafted in the past decade from 13-32.

I honestly have no opinion about Jordan Love but this just seems disingenuous.  

 

[deltarich87]

My confidence in Gutekunst as GM continues to decline

[cannondale]

17 minutes ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

Sure we do. We absolutely take it into account. When you have an elite OL, a top 10 WR, a top 10 RB, and an average-ish TE, we expect you to make due with two guys who are closer to #3 receivers than #2s. 

If your QB needs an elite player at every position to be a good QB, you don't have a good QB. 

This isn't MM's offense anymore. I forgot the WR's per play, but the number has dropped significantly. That puts a premium on the few that are on the field. A shi***ty #2 is huge. But even if your point is closer to the truth than mine - which I don't think it is - give the QB a legit #2 and see what happens. We've given DC coordinators talent after talent after talent without blinking an eye. Hell they did it last year with Gary while also paying Smithsx2. How many 1st round picks are invested on the offensive side of the ball ? How many 2nd round picks ? How many blue chip FA's ? I believe the grand total is 2.

Edited April 24, 2020 by cannondale

[Gypsy1027]

Count me in the unhappy bunch for the backup QB choice in Round One. Gutey says that Love is a versatile athlete. Ok. How well does the guy play WR, ILB, DT, TE or OT? Going into tonight, the Packers had five draft choices to fill the five needs I just listed. After Round One finished we still have the five needs, but we have only added a backup quarterback and lost our fourth round pick. We are sitting with picks in just Rounds 2, 3 and 5. Can't subtract 5 players from 3 picks.  Even with extra late round picks, given their relative small value, I think we have lost the opportunity to WIN NOW. Maybe Love will be all-world....

[MaximusGluteus]

1 minute ago, Macc_Aviv said:

I don't think there is 'easily' a best weapon left as you state. Some may see it as Mims, but for me Shenault is a home run. If I asked you to write down all your firm opinions on this draft class today, and we looked at it 5 years from now, we'd probably have a laugh at the guys you thought were a sure thing, and there would probably be some later drafted guys who you liked a lot who turned out well where you could say I told you so. This is far from an exact science. And the people actually making these picks are working 12 to 14 hour days, rewatching entire games where you just saw a Youtube breakdown. Talking to middle school, high school and college coaches familiar with the prospects while you watch a couple interviews or read an article. Not to say everyone doing the job is good at it, or that your opinion means nothing. But it is far from the exact science you are making it sound like, and the people actually making the decisions here have access to far more information than the general public. 

And even with all that extra work they do and the knowledge they obtain that we don't even come close to, it's still basically a crap shoot for them as well.

[Iskra]

2 minutes ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

You get a magic wish. You can wish away Rodgers and all ill effects of his contract. 

That's 36.5 million in 2021 and 40million in 2022. '

Do you do it? I think I would.

We're talking about 2020, Alex. 2021 is a whole 'nuther story.

[Danger]

2 minutes ago, flyers0909 said:

In the past 10 years 1-12

2010 - 1.1 Sam Bradford
2011 - 1.1 Cam Newton
2011 - 1.8 Jake Locker
2011 - 1.10 Blaine Gabbert
2011 - 1.12 Christian Ponder
2012 - 1.1 Andrew Luck
2012 - 1.2 Robert Griffin
2012 - 1.8 Ryan Tannehill
2014 - 1.3 Blake Bortles
2015 - 1.1 Jameis Winston
2015 - 1.2 Marcus Mariota 
2016 - 1.1 Jared Goff
2016 - 1.2 Carson Wentz
2017 - 1.2 Mitch Trubisky
2017 - 1.10 Pat Mahomes
2017 - 1.12 Deshaun Watson
2018 - 1.1 Baker Mayfield
2018 - 1.3 Sam Darnold
2018 - 1.7 Josh Allen
2018 - 1.10 Josh Rosen

I'm being pretty conservative and 1-12 has such a better history given draft capital?  You're also talking about a sample size of 8 QBs drafted in the past decade from 13-32.

I honestly have no opinion about Jordan Love but this just seems disingenuous.  

 

1-12 has overall a much higher success rate of not busting than 13-32, still not perfect though. Who as I said is just Aaron Rodgers and Lamar Jackson, every other single one in that time frame was a flat out bust.

[beekay414]

1 minute ago, rthom348 said:

Rodgers has always been a mess mechanically. I think his ceiling is so damn high and he can reach that if he has people to throw the ball to. To me, that's the difference between his early years and his recent years. We were always loaded at receiver with Rodgers. But we got away from that and he's suffered. I'm not saying he doesn't have faults. The difference I see is his confidence in throwing to certain guys. He was ultra aggressive early on because he trusted everybody. Now he doesn't trust anyone minus Davante and I think he's right to feel that way. Even if he spread the ball around more after Davante came back, it doesn't mean he'd be more successful. It could just be a repeat of Darius Shepherd letting the ball smack him in the face for an interception. I wish we had guys to throw to so Rodgers can return to his ceiling. And that ceiling is the absolute Pinnacle of QB play ever. 

Did Rodgers inability to make throws happen when he was throwing to Jared Abbrederis and Jeff Janis? No? Oh. Yes, talent at WR has dropped off but he's also gotten older and more set in his ways. And he hasn't always been a mess mechanically. Go look at his 2010 tape. He was sound as hell and drove into the ball to make throws along the seems. His throw to Jennings in the Super Bowl on both the TD and the 3rd down conversion, they were picture perfect throws from the feet to the release. He didn't become a mess until he realized he could throw off his back foot like nobody ever has. There's a reason his deep ball ability has tailed off. He went from being the best deep ball guy in the league to hanging the ball in the air and falling out of all his throws. He fell in love with himself. I love, absolutely love, Aaron Rodgers. I also absolutely hate that he hasn't adjusted. He's 10x the QB Brady is physically yet Brady adapts while Rodgers refuses to admit Father Time is whoopin' his ***. 

Regardless, I don't care. I love the draft approach. We have a 37 year old QB and now we have a long term plan in place. I'd rather that be in place than drafting a 1st round center to protect our 42 year old QB or trusting a 4th rounder to be our replacement to our QB legend like New England is doing. LIS a million times in this thread, it's better to be proactive than reactive. I'll always praise a GM for that ability. Means he cares more about the future of the club than his current job status.

[Macc_Aviv]

The great Bob Marley actually predicted this pick years ago:

 

 

[rthom348]

If the Packers are able to grab (in this order of value in my eyes)... 

1. Higgins

2. Mims

3. Shenault

...then I'll be a happy camper on some level.

[MaximusGluteus]

@Macc_Aviv
 

 

[persiandud]

7 minutes ago, rthom348 said:

If the Packers are able to grab (in this order of value in my eyes)... 

1. Higgins

2. Mims

3. Shenault

...then I'll be a happy camper on some level.

switch the order and leave out higgins and that's where i'm at

[Iskra]

3 minutes ago, beekay414 said:

I love the draft approach. We have a 37 year old QB and now we have a long term plan in place. I'd rather that be in place than drafting a 1st round center to protect our 42 year old QB or trusting a 4th rounder to be our replacement to our QB legend like New England is doing.

I'd be happy with supplementing a once-in-a-lifetime 36-37 y/o QB with enough talent to earn three more rings. Similar to what was done for a 37, 39, and 41 year-old now Buccaneers QB.