1.26 - Jordan Love [QB; Utah State] - QB1

[Lodestar]

5 hours ago, Old Guy said:

@Joe it doesn't make the culture correct to throw young guys into the mix when they aren't ready. Look at Darnold and Rosen. Nearly ruined Darnold, tbd and it did ruin Rosen. 

The odds of success go up exponentially if a QB coming out of college can sit a while. Tua sat for most of last year. 

Let's put it this way, Green Bay had a ton of success grooming Rodgers. The same plan for Love is not going to hurt the kid sitting for a while. 

I occasionally wonder if this is a GB narrative based on our experience/luck as Packers fans. I know Mahomes sat for a year and probably benefited from it, but if you look around the league, most of the top guys — Russell Wilson, Deshaun Watson, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Dak Prescott, Justin Herbert, Matthew Stafford — played extensively early in their careers.

[ifeelasleep]

Loved looked farther along than I expected, that pass to Begelton was a beauty, if we dont get to SB this year im fine with moving on soon. Still im high on the team this year lets go for it all.

 

Quote

I occasionally wonder if this is a GB narrative based on our experience/luck as Packers fans. I know Mahomes sat for a year and probably benefited from it, but if you look around the league, most of the top guys — Russell Wilson, Deshaun Watson, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Dak Prescott, Justin Herbert, Matthew Stafford — played extensively early in their careers.

Its hard to make this comparison because most coaches are trying to keep their job and they will eventually play their "Franchise Savior", I think Rodgers was ready to play earlier than we think but Favre was still producing.

Edited August 31, 2021 by ifeelasleep

[MacReady]

The longer a QB sits, the better the QB is.

If Kizer sat for three years, he could easily have been a mid tier QB in this league.

If Hundley sat for three years, he could have been a top backup QB in this league who could get you out of a game if you had a good defense.

It really depends on the QB as far as their prime ability, but no QB doesn’t benefit from sitting.

Even Tom Brady. If Tom Brady had been forced into a starting role in his rookie year, you probably would not know his name right now.

If Rodgers had started his first year, he’d possibly be a footnote in Packer history as the QB who followed Favre. Maybe he still wins a Super Bowl, but he wouldn’t have been Rodgers as we know him.

Mahomes might have been a Culpepper type. An all-star, but with bad habits and such.

If Favre had started in his rookie year he would have definitely been out of the league in three years.

Starting a QB too early is a terrible thing.

[vegas492]

11 hours ago, Lodestar said:

I occasionally wonder if this is a GB narrative based on our experience/luck as Packers fans. I know Mahomes sat for a year and probably benefited from it, but if you look around the league, most of the top guys — Russell Wilson, Deshaun Watson, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Dak Prescott, Justin Herbert, Matthew Stafford — played extensively early in their careers.

Wilson beat out Matt Flynn.  After Flynn signed a nice deal with Seattle, so Wilson actually beat out someone who should have had the job.

Who did Watson beat out?  I can't remember.  Josh Allen?  Lamar Jackson beat out an old Flacco.  Prescott had to play because of Romo's injuries, right?  Justin Herbert played only because the team doctor botched a shot to Taylor.  Matthew Stafford was the first overall pick, he's gonna play, and there was no one to really beat out.

It isn't just that they played early, it's how.  Any of those guys beating out Aaron Rodgers for job?

If you want to give yourself the best odds at having your rookie QB "hit", you sit him for a while.  It's just that not many teams are in the position to do just that.

[Refugee]

43 minutes ago, vegas492 said:

Wilson beat out Matt Flynn.  After Flynn signed a nice deal with Seattle, so Wilson actually beat out someone who should have had the job.

Who did Watson beat out?  I can't remember.  Josh Allen?  Lamar Jackson beat out an old Flacco.  Prescott had to play because of Romo's injuries, right?  Justin Herbert played only because the team doctor botched a shot to Taylor.  Matthew Stafford was the first overall pick, he's gonna play, and there was no one to really beat out.

It isn't just that they played early, it's how.  Any of those guys beating out Aaron Rodgers for job?

If you want to give yourself the best odds at having your rookie QB "hit", you sit him for a while.  It's just that not many teams are in the position to do just that.

I think most people would agree to this.  The one thing to note, there is a sweet spot between not getting thrown into the fire too early but also learning on the job with real reps. No matter how good a QB will eventually be, that first year as a starter, in year one or year 5, they will take some lumps but also grow.  
 

The other Goldilocks zone we are searching for is not letting the old and very good guy go too soon and hopefully getting good QB play at a bargain rate from the young guy as soon as possible. It will be an interesting balancing act between cold evaluation and balancing the egos involved.  It is not guaranteed that Love will start next year but 12 forced the issue enough that the cards will have to get laid on the table, probably a year before Gute wanted to. 
 

I hope Love continues to grow and learn from one of the best to ever do it, he might have some very big shoes to fill soon.   This could be a season to remember if the stars align. 

[skibrett15]

5 hours ago, Outpost31 said:

The longer a QB sits, the better the QB is.

The longer a qb sits, the more likely it is that player is downright unplayable.

Good players force their way onto the field.  In the case where they are playing behind a top QB, there just isn't very much of a sample size, because teams with top QBs rarely draft first round QBs, or talented qbs for that matter.

 

According to your rationale, here are the best guys off the bench, because they have been sitting for a LONG TIME, and preparing.  All of these guys can at least get you a win if you have a good defense, right?

Mike White

Kyle Lauletta

Easton Stick

Clayton Thorson

Will Grier (oh wait he just got cut for an XFL player 5 hours ago)

 

All these guys who played their first year are awful:

Peyton, Elway, Aikman, Marino, Fouts... the list goes on.

 

Can sitting for a while help? Sure.  But sitting USUALLY means you are bad/not a starter.  Sitting and going on to start is the exception, and there's no evidence that sitting out helps.  What you're doing is finding a rationale after the fact to fit cherry picked examples of what actually happened.

[MrBobGray]

Man the offseason makes people weird.  Love looked fine in preseason, which is the absolute limit of what you can glean from preseason anyway.  There's no game-planning, which is what makes or breaks success in the NFL.  A guy's ability to make throws and go through reads as part of a vanilla offense plan going against a vanilla defense tells you nothing about whether he can succeed when teams are scheming against him with every tool at their disposal.  Further, a lot of the little technique things people love to critique often take time and game reps to get right; something you aren't going to get in the preseason.  

This isn't a defense of Jordan Love, it's a statement that preseason snaps give you nowhere near enough info to make the type of determinations people seem to want to make in general.  Analyzing if Love's perfect touch pass to Micah Hyde means he's unplayable trash just shows that you don't really understand how analysis works as a concept.  Love's grade is and always will be Incomplete until he gets the starting job.  

[vegas492]

1 hour ago, skibrett15 said:

The longer a qb sits, the more likely it is that player is downright unplayable.

Good players force their way onto the field.  In the case where they are playing behind a top QB, there just isn't very much of a sample size, because teams with top QBs rarely draft first round QBs, or talented qbs for that matter.

 

According to your rationale, here are the best guys off the bench, because they have been sitting for a LONG TIME, and preparing.  All of these guys can at least get you a win if you have a good defense, right?

Mike White

Kyle Lauletta

Easton Stick

Clayton Thorson

Will Grier (oh wait he just got cut for an XFL player 5 hours ago)

 

All these guys who played their first year are awful:

Peyton, Elway, Aikman, Marino, Fouts... the list goes on.

 

Can sitting for a while help? Sure.  But sitting USUALLY means you are bad/not a starter.  Sitting and going on to start is the exception, and there's no evidence that sitting out helps.  What you're doing is finding a rationale after the fact to fit cherry picked examples of what actually happened.

Sitting when there isn't a great starter in front of you means you are probably going to be bad/not a starter.

Sitting when Aaron Rodgers is in front of you winning MVP's means, well, it means that Rodgers is pretty special and you are waiting your turn.

None of the guys you mentioned had any higher end starters in front of them on the roster.  

I mean, Favre was a pretty good QB when we drafted Rodgers.  That worked out.

Smith was a good QB for KC when they drafted Mahomes.

Montana was pretty good when San Fran swung a deal for Young.

Dalton is pretty good when Chicago drafted Foles.  Uh.  Wait.  Yah, you got me there!

All in fun.  There is hope for Love.  And it appears that there is a plan.

[skibrett15]

I'm not commenting on love whatsoever.  He's sitting for obvious reasons.

 

Drawing any parallels to starting early or sitting early to Jordan Love is not what my post was about.  It's about debunking some strange theory that sitting helps/hurts a quarterback.  Brett Hundley had plenty of time to sit.  He just sucked.

[Norm]

2 hours ago, skibrett15 said:

I'm not commenting on love whatsoever.  He's sitting for obvious reasons.

 

Drawing any parallels to starting early or sitting early to Jordan Love is not what my post was about.  It's about debunking some strange theory that sitting helps/hurts a quarterback.  Brett Hundley had plenty of time to sit.  He just sucked.

It's all situation. Team talent, how raw the prospect is, their mentality, their college experience. There's no damn rule. Some guys could play right away on one team and be ****ed by it on some other one. Having a solid black/white opinion on sitting vs not is overrated. There's just to many factors. I wouldn't start Trey Lance, but they have Jimmy. So he'll play some, it seems. But I could maybe swallow him playing him on SF, but I sure as **** wouldn't start him on JAX, but then you'd have to have kept Minshew, because you can't go start some Ben DeNucci level scrub or some **** and leave that on the bench, the PR would be a joke. Tom Brady could have been ruined in the wrong situation, maybe David Carr could have been Alex Smith if nothing else. Who ******* knows. 

That being said, there really isn't a situation where I think Love should have started right away, even with a normal off season.

[pacman5252]

20 hours ago, Outpost31 said:

The longer a QB sits, the better the QB is.

If Kizer sat for three years, he could easily have been a mid tier QB in this league.

If Hundley sat for three years, he could have been a top backup QB in this league who could get you out of a game if you had a good defense.

It really depends on the QB as far as their prime ability, but no QB doesn’t benefit from sitting.

Even Tom Brady. If Tom Brady had been forced into a starting role in his rookie year, you probably would not know his name right now.

If Rodgers had started his first year, he’d possibly be a footnote in Packer history as the QB who followed Favre. Maybe he still wins a Super Bowl, but he wouldn’t have been Rodgers as we know him.

Mahomes might have been a Culpepper type. An all-star, but with bad habits and such.

If Favre had started in his rookie year he would have definitely been out of the league in three years.

Starting a QB too early is a terrible thing.

Not sure I completely agree with this. There can be benefits to sitting, learning scheme, but to a degree if you’re ready, nothing beats live reps and getting first team reps/prep. It really depends on the guy and situation.
 

-There are the TB and Wilson (Brees as well) examples where getting forced into PT was probably the best thing that happened to them.
 

-AR and Mahomes had mechanic issues. They needed time to get them fixed. It also helped that both had nice supporting casts year 1 starting (both inherited 12/13 win teams).I do agree In an alternative world, they are drafted by a bad team, have a rough rookie year, and flame out.

-Keizer sucked because his work ethic (went out night before games…).  Haskins is kind of the same. There is no saving an immature kid.

-Hundley didn’t get a meaningful snap until year 3 and still was a low tier backup guy. 

[Mr Bad Example]

The Ringer just ran an article on nature vs nurture in young QBs, and generally players who are drafted by better teams have a better chance of success, because they aren't getting David Carred behind crappy OLs or screwed up by 3-13-level coaching. 

Mahomes vs, say, Darnold are great examples - Mahomes goes to KC where he sits behind a consummate pro of a QB for a year, has a HoF HC who's made a career of developing QBs, and, as mentioned, took over a team that was 12-4 the previous season. 
 

Whereas Sam Darnold went to NYJ and got Gased with a junk team....really, name the best WR he had when he was there (TBF they did sign Leveon Bell to help, even though he busted). 

 

If Darnold went to KC and Mahomes to NY, would the narratives have swapped? There's a good chance they might've - or at least instead of MVP vs bust, it would've been average starter vs average starter. 

[FAH1223]

All I know is this... Love passes the eye test in 2021 better than Rodgers did in 2006.

Doesn't mean shid. But its one less thing to worry about. Kid is putting in the work and has to improve his decision making. But the baseline for him LOOKS to be competent. 

[Joe]

On 8/30/2021 at 10:23 PM, Lodestar said:

I know Mahomes sat for a year and probably benefited from it, but if you look around the league, most of the top guys — Russell Wilson, Deshaun Watson, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Dak Prescott, Justin Herbert, Matthew Stafford — played extensively early in their careers.

This is what I was talking about in regards to "culture." Guys aren't sitting two or three years anymore, they're playing now  or in the very near future. 

 

2 hours ago, FAH1223 said:

Kid is putting in the work and has to improve his decision making. But the baseline for him LOOKS to be competent. 

This is why I want to see him take meaningful snaps in Week 2, 5, 7, and 8. All of those games should be wins as is, but more importantly we can afford to have Love manage a series or two early in those games when the other team has their starters on the field and Love is working with the 1's again as he did pre-Rodgers return.

[Lodestar]

42 minutes ago, Joe said:

This is why I want to see him take meaningful snaps in Week 2, 5, 7, and 8. All of those games should be wins as is, but more importantly we can afford to have Love manage a series or two early in those games when the other team has their starters on the field and Love is working with the 1's again as he did pre-Rodgers return.

Ahh, the ol' "Bench your MVP in the first quarter of a Week 2 game against a division rival" strategy. Yes, I can definitely see the coaches going for that.