Does Jerry's record fall?

[Mox]

The record for career catches in the NFL is 1,549 held by Jerry Rice. At one point it seemed unfathomable to top but I'm not so sure anymore. Do you think this will fall in the next 15 years?

The two main contenders imo would be:

Larry Fitzgerald, who has 1,378, and turns 37 next month. He would need to average 86 catches over the next two years, or ~57 over the next three to break the record. Fitzgerald, however, is declining and seems to be considering retiring every offseason.

Michael Thomas, has 470 catches in four seasons, he's 27. He catches per season is the highest ever, passing numbers will continue to inflate with the extra game, and his game translates to having a long career. However, he started late and is already 27.

Do you think it will be broken in the next 15 years? Is there someone else you think that has a better shot than these two?

[OkeyDoke21]

I don't know if we'll see it fall in the next 15 years, or not.  Out of those two, I think Fitzgerald has the better shot, just because he is that close.  86 across 2, or even playing 3 more years doesn't sound likely.  Thomas still has so long to go.  So much can happen over the next decade for him.  He is like 3 or 4 negative tweets about him from just taking his ball and going home.   I don't think either of those will be the one to break it, though.

[OkeyDoke21]

AB looked like a threat to some of Jerry's numbers, just a year ago.  Maybe Julio, if he can stay on the field, and wants to stay on the field, for another 10 years.  Probably a bigger threat to yardage though.  Jarvis Landry is a guy who piles up catches at a similar age to Thomas. 

[Xmad]

If I had to guess Fitz will probably try and go for the record. 

I can see him playing into his 40's he hasn't had injury issues and is that kinda dude work ethic wise. 

[Tetsujin]

I'm wondering if we don't get a season, or just a partial one, that'd put some records out of reach for current players.

[Forge]

I feel like Fitz will get to the catches record. I don't think he can do it in 2 years, but I think that he can do it in three, and he's still playing just fine. 

If Fitz doesn't get it? Could be a bit. 

[ET80]

I don't think so. Part of this is based on a guy playing into his late 30s AND producing at a high level.

Larry Fitzgerald is really rare nowadays - at that position, guys usually have a hard time keeping a roster sport around 35. Now, not only does a guy have to stick around, they have to catch 85-90 passes at that age. Fitz is still in the game, but he's not posting up numbers like THAT anymore. He's getting a respectable 60-70 grabs, but respectable isn't the objective here.

I simply don't think it'll happen, unless the league expands to 18 games or something...

[Shanedorf]

Its Larry or nobody... and I don't think Larry gets it done in AZ or elsewhere
He turns 37 next month, playing 3 more seasons would be quite the stretch. He doesn't need the money and the cards are 2-3 years away from being a title contender in a very tough division. He also knows that surpassing Rice in completions only, won't make him the goat.

So what's his motivation to hang on ?

[Mr Bad Example]

2 hours ago, Xmad said:

If I had to guess Fitz will probably try and go for the record. 

I can see him playing into his 40's he hasn't had injury issues and is that kinda dude work ethic wise. 

That's why I don't trust projections regarding Thomas....to beat Rice you've got to be REALLY good and REALLY healthy for a REALLY long time. 

Rice's AGE 40 season was 92-1211-7. I mean, holy crap. Rice had 185 catches at age 40+. The entire rest of football history's 40+ season is an empty set. If you let the entire NFL history go back to age 38, it has 177 catches, still less than Rice's 185 from age 40-42 (n/m what he did at 38 and 39). 

Fitz may hang for the reception record, but the rest of Rice's marks are, at this point, unreachable. 

[Jeezla]

What is Mike Evans on pace for?

OBJ had a shot before his injury and mentally going full Kanye.

Edited July 28, 2020 by Jeezla

[LieutenantGains]

I honestly think AB would have broke the reception and the yardage record. Can't see anyone getting the touchdown record.

[Soko]

2 hours ago, Jeezla said:

What is Mike Evans on pace for?

OBJ had a shot before his injury and mentally going full Kanye.

Mike Evans actually has less catches than MT. No one’s close to MT’s pace on a yearly basis, and even then he has to maintain that for another decade or so to get it. 

I think Fitz has a shot at it. Remember that the league’s going to have 17-game seasons, he’s going to keep working the slot. We’ll see if Hop takes too many targets away. 

[LuckIsGOAT]

I doubt it but his rec records is definitely more attainable than his yards, seasons leading the league in receiving yards, TDs, or playoff TDs records I don't  see those records getting broken for several decades

Also Brady should break his non K/P games played record he's only 18 away and Brees is only 28 away

Edited August 5, 2020 by LuckIsGOAT

[scar988]

Julio Jones could possibly break his receiving yards record with 8 more seasons at his normal averages of 1348 yards. But let's be honest here, Jerry's records are very unlikely to fall.

[JAF-N72EX]

I think it will be broken and sooner than most might think. 

Everyone knows this a passing league era so I won't get into that, but I don't think most people realize just how MUCH its increased and that it's still rising.

And as long as the passing game keeps rising, it also means more opportunities for WR's to catch more passes and get more yards. AB was good example of this. 

Side note: I did an article back in the 2016 offseason to show just how much more the league had become more reliant on the pass game vs the past and even went as far as to show what the passing numbers would possibly look like in future years based on a scale that it was headed towards but I can't find the notes on my computer. I know it's here somewhere and I would like to look at them to see how close it reflects to how it all actually turned out.