Official 2021 QB Thread

[NYRaider]

12 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

Same could be said with you and Fields.

Speaking of Fields I've seen a few draft nicks, Daniel Jeremiah in particular move him down his draft board. In his most recent rankings he has Fields at #12 and Lance at #11. I'm not a draft expert but I've watched film on both and I don't see anyway someone could legitimately think Lance is a better prospect than Fields. Lance's last 5 games of film were horrible and he will have played 1 football game in like 20 months when the 2021 season starts. 

Also we miss you in the basketball section.

Edited March 6, 2021 by NYRaider

[NYRaider]

On 3/4/2021 at 10:29 AM, Bullet Club said:

I have to admit I'm a little surprised both Smith and Waddle said they prefer Mac over Tua. Do they like Mac that much? Is that a shot at Tua?

Pat McAfee addressed this on his podcast and one of theories was that those two had a better relationship with Mac than Tua because they all came in around the same time and had to grind it out as backups before they got an opportunity to start. 

They also only played like 8.5 games with Tua in Sark's offense and 16 games with Mac in the same system. 

[Uncle Buck]

I look at these quarterbacks kind of like a poker hand.  In my opinion, drafting Trevor Lawrence is like looking down at your hole cards in a game of Texas Hold 'Em and seeing that you have a pair of aces.  It's the best hand you can start with, but that doesn't guarantee that you are going to win.  Aces get cracked more often than people realize.  At the same time, I'd rather start with a pair of aces than a pair of eights, or even a pair of kings.

Maybe you could look at Wilson as a pair of kings, Fields as a pair of queens, etc.  In all of these cases you are starting with a great hand that gives you a good chance to win, but you still need to depend on the other cards that come up to make or break your hand. 

[49ersfan]

2 hours ago, NYRaider said:

Speaking of Fields I've seen a few draft nicks, Daniel Jeremiah in particular move him down his draft board. In his most recent rankings he has Fields at #12 and Lance at #11. I'm not a draft expert but I've watched film on both and I don't see anyway someone could legitimately think Lance is a better prospect than Fields. Lance's last 5 games of film were horrible and he will have played 1 football game in like 20 months when the 2021 season starts. 

Also we miss you in the basketball section.

I don't usually follow pre-draft rankings all that much. I'm wondering if moving players up/down the draft board at this stage is related to inside info that teams maybe aren't high on those guys? Simms also had Fields & Lance low on his rankings. It could be that everyone had the same idea, or it could be that these guys are leaning into their sources in the NFL and the consensus is teams aren't high on those guys?

[NYRaider]

1 hour ago, 49ersfan said:

I don't usually follow pre-draft rankings all that much. I'm wondering if moving players up/down the draft board at this stage is related to inside info that teams maybe aren't high on those guys? Simms also had Fields & Lance low on his rankings. It could be that everyone had the same idea, or it could be that these guys are leaning into their sources in the NFL and the consensus is teams aren't high on those guys?

It could also be smoke screens from teams that are feeding negative information about Fields/Lance to the media in hopes it will push them down the board on draft night. 

[NYRaider]

2 hours ago, Uncle Buck said:

I look at these quarterbacks kind of like a poker hand.  In my opinion, drafting Trevor Lawrence is like looking down at your hole cards in a game of Texas Hold 'Em and seeing that you have a pair of aces.  It's the best hand you can start with, but that doesn't guarantee that you are going to win.  Aces get cracked more often than people realize.  At the same time, I'd rather start with a pair of aces than a pair of eights, or even a pair of kings.

Maybe you could look at Wilson as a pair of kings, Fields as a pair of queens, etc.  In all of these cases you are starting with a great hand that gives you a good chance to win, but you still need to depend on the other cards that come up to make or break your hand. 

Another interesting thing to note if you look at recent draft history, QB's that have went #1 have had mixed results. 

Since 2000

2001: Michael Vick - Good career but never appeared in a Super Bowl 

2002: David Carr - Meh career and never appeared in a Super Bowl 

2003: Carson Palmer - Good career but never appeared in a Super Bowl 

2004: Eli Manning - Good career and won 2 Super Bowls

2005: Alex Smith - Good career but never appeared in a Super Bowl

2007: JaMarcus Russell - One of the biggest busts in NFL history 

2009: Matt Stafford - Good career but hasn't appeared in a Super Bowl yet

2010: Sam Bradford - Mediocre career and never appeared in a Super Bowl

2011: Cam Newton - Good career and led the Panthers to 1 Super Bowl loss

2012: Andrew Luck - Very good career but never appeared in a Super Bowl 

2015: Jameis Winston - Mediocre career and hasn't appeared in a Super Bowl yet

2016: Jared Goff - Solid career and led the Rams to 1 Super Bowl loss

2018: Baker Mayfield - Solid career but hasn't appeared in a Super Bowl yet

2019: Kyler Murray - Good career thus far but hasn't appeared in a Super Bowl yet

2020: Joe Burrow - Looks like the real deal but we'll have to see how he bounces back from the injury

So of the 15 QB's taken #1 overall they've had a combined 4 Super Bowl appearances (Manning x2, Newton, Goff), 2 Super Bowl victories (Manning x2), 2 All-Pro seasons (Palmer x1, Newton x1), and 1 MVP (Newton). So it's pretty rare that a QB goes #1 and finds a ton of success with the team that drafts him. 

[Soko]

 

40 minutes ago, NYRaider said:

So of the 15 QB's taken #1 overall they've had a combined 4 Super Bowl appearances (Manning x2, Newton, Goff), 2 Super Bowl victories (Manning x2), 2 All-Pro seasons (Palmer x1, Newton x1), and 1 MVP (Newton). So it's pretty rare that a QB goes #1 and finds a ton of success with the team that drafts him. 

I too discount the butt whooping against the Hawks and the win vs Sexy Rexy, but Peyton has four of those on his own.

[Forge]

6 hours ago, NYRaider said:

Speaking of Fields I've seen a few draft nicks, Daniel Jeremiah in particular move him down his draft board. In his most recent rankings he has Fields at #12 and Lance at #11. I'm not a draft expert but I've watched film on both and I don't see anyway someone could legitimately think Lance is a better prospect than Fields. Lance's last 5 games of film were horrible and he will have played 1 football game in like 20 months when the 2021 season starts. 

Also we miss you in the basketball section.

I'm seriously starting to wonder if the niners have a real shot to get Fields (if they are interested...and they should be...the more I watch fields, the more I think he's an amazing fit for Shanny)

[Forge]

22 hours ago, brownie man said:

Just watched Zach Wilson for the first time and Trey Lance for the first time 

not bad prospects 

but...

I saw nothing at all to have me put them above Fields.

Is it just that people want be different?

There’s no way they actually believe he’s a better prospect than Fields. There’s no way. Can someone explain it to me. 
 

What do they see exactly?

Lance I don't get. I think Lance is the guy you trade up from the second round into the first round to get. Or, if you're drafting where the niners are, you trade down from 12 to like 20-22 and then take Lance. 

But I have Wilson over Fields, though I'm putting them close in tier, just with Wilson over Fields. A lot could depend on *where* they get drafted though

[Forge]

20 hours ago, Ozzy said:

Agreed, it was solid what he did against those teams as a SOPH.  But fact is he had over 1300+ more yards as a JR and 20 more TDs.  To say that is not because of easier competition, well I think it is

Don't discount the change in offense. 

[CWood21]

11 minutes ago, Forge said:

I'm seriously starting to wonder if the niners have a real shot to get Fields (if they are interested...and they should be...the more I watch fields, the more I think he's an amazing fit for Shanny)

I suppose it's possible, but it's likely going to need to come via a trade up.  Obviously, Jacksonville is locked into Lawrence.  The #2 overall pick is going to be a QB whether it be for the Jets or another team via a trade up.  Miami at 3 and Atlanta at 4 are likely the trigger points.  I just don't fathom any of the top 3 QBs going off the board later than 6.

[Forge]

1 minute ago, CWood21 said:

I suppose it's possible, but it's likely going to need to come via a trade up.  Obviously, Jacksonville is locked into Lawrence.  The #2 overall pick is going to be a QB whether it be for the Jets or another team via a trade up.  Miami at 3 and Atlanta at 4 are likely the trigger points.  I just don't fathom any of the top 3 QBs going off the board later than 6.

I don't think that Miami is moving down. Atlanta seems a strong possibility to move down, but the main option there would be Carolina, who is picking in front of the niners anyway. Not sure if that happens or not. They could like Mac Jones just as well and be fine right there. I don't think the Eagles are taking a QB

[CWood21]

1 minute ago, Forge said:

I don't think that Miami is moving down. Atlanta seems a strong possibility to move down, but the main option there would be Carolina, who is picking in front of the niners anyway. Not sure if that happens or not. They could like Mac Jones just as well and be fine right there. I don't think the Eagles are taking a QB

Unless Miami wants Penei Sewell, they're best served by moving down and acquiring even more assets assuming they don't swing a deal for Deshaun Watson.  BPA for Atlanta would either be a QB, WR, or Kyle Pitts assuming the top 3 are Lawrence, QB, and Sewell.  Cincinnati needs an OL, but Mike Brown is too arrogant to do what's right for his #1 pick.  All of the teams 6-9 could take a QB.  Not saying they will, but they're all in the market for one.

[Forge]

14 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

Unless Miami wants Penei Sewell, they're best served by moving down and acquiring even more assets assuming they don't swing a deal for Deshaun Watson.  BPA for Atlanta would either be a QB, WR, or Kyle Pitts assuming the top 3 are Lawrence, QB, and Sewell.  Cincinnati needs an OL, but Mike Brown is too arrogant to do what's right for his #1 pick.  All of the teams 6-9 could take a QB.  Not saying they will, but they're all in the market for one.

I think Miami has very specific needs and moving down potentially means giving up their preference for one of those needs (WR). If they like a guy at the receiver position considerably more than the other receivers, I think they will want market value for that pick to move down and I think that they are going to find that market shallow. 

Atlanta has needs that fit better further down the draft board, and have more needs. They can move down below market just to accrue assets (assuming that they are not taking a QB themselves, of course, which I don't believe that they are going to do). But again, I think the most likely team to make this move is Carolina, so that's kind of whatever. 

Not really worried about Cincy moving given it happens once in a blue moon, don't think the eagles take a QB. Don't think Detroit is doing it. Carolina definitely will, and I think Denver is more likely to add a vet to fight with Lock. I'd expect them to go with someone like Farley. 

Dallas could if they lose Dak, but obviously I don't expect that. I think 3 Qbs go in the top 8, but if Carolina takes Mac, it becomes interesting. I'd think it's more likely that a team like Chicago moves up to get Fields at 10 or 11, but if no trade ups happen, certainly don't think it's impossible that he could be there at 12. 

[Forge]

Now, if I were the niners I may make a small trade up if he starts to fall just to make sure I got my guy, but I definitely don't think it's impossible that he's there.