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Official 2021 QB Thread


NYRaider

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4 hours ago, NYRaider said:

The chances that a QB taken #1 ever wins an MVP, is an All-Pro, or wins a Super Bowl with the team that drafted him are slim to none. 

The chances of a QB at any draft slot doing that are slim to none. Yet, I can point to examples of #1 picks doing each of those things in the past two decades. So . . .

Edited by jrry32
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11 hours ago, BroncoSojia said:

Does anyone else see Kurt Warner when they watch Mac Jones? I'm not a draft expect by any stretch, but that's who I immediately think of when watching Jones play.

I can see it.

Both around 6'2"

Not mobile or athletic. Both will stay in the pocket

Great accuracy

Average arm strength

Both have doubters because the amount of offensive talent around them

 

Edited by LieutenantGains
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12 hours ago, BroncoSojia said:

Does anyone else see Kurt Warner when they watch Mac Jones? I'm not a draft expect by any stretch, but that's who I immediately think of when watching Jones play.

Maybe you could toss that out as his absolute ceiling, but it's more likely he's Andy Dalton or Jimmy G. You could credibly compare him to anybody on the spectrum from Colt McCoy to Kurt Warner (with Dalton, Jimmy G., and Cousins falling somewhere between them).

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9 hours ago, jrry32 said:

Maybe you could toss that out as his absolute ceiling, but it's more likely he's Andy Dalton or Jimmy G. You could credibly compare him to anybody on the spectrum from Colt McCoy to Kurt Warner (with Dalton, Jimmy G., and Cousins falling somewhere between them).

PFF compared him to Derek Carr, FWIW.

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22 hours ago, Forge said:

No, I think that was the older injury from high school. Labrum issue or something?  I think 2019 was when he messed up his hand

It actually was a shoulder injury, he had shoulder surgery in the offseason prior to his sophomore year. 

https://www.sltrib.com/sports/byu-cougars/2019/02/04/byu-quarterback-zach/

I was listening to a podcast and they were discussing if Wilson's one year of high end play was a cause for concern. Another one of the hosts said no because he was coming off of the shoulder surgery. And that you can clearly see he was at 100% during 2020.

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18 hours ago, jrry32 said:

The chances of a QB at any draft slot doing that are slim to none. Yet, I can point to examples of #1 picks doing each of those things in the past two decades. So . . .

That's true. But it's pretty rare that a QB goes #1 and lives up to the hype, especially guys that are touted as special prospects. Over the last 20 years the only two that have really lived up to expectations are Eli Manning and Andrew Luck. 

Lawerence has so much hype coming into the league he's going to have to be a Mahomes level player to live up to it. 

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9 minutes ago, NYRaider said:

It actually was a shoulder injury, he had shoulder surgery in the offseason prior to his sophomore year. 

https://www.sltrib.com/sports/byu-cougars/2019/02/04/byu-quarterback-zach/

I was listening to a podcast and they were discussing if Wilson's one year of high end play was a cause for concern. Another one of the hosts said no because he was coming off of the shoulder surgery. And that you can clearly see he was at 100% during 2020.

Oh, that was before the season from an injury in high school.  He actually missed time in season in 2019 for a hand injury as well. That's what I thought you were referring to since he missed time for that

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What concerns me about Wilson is that you basically have 1 year of good film, in which he played without fans against the 68th best schedule difficulty in the nation, and has some non major general maturity concerns his first couple of years at BYU.

Yes, you see some of the throws he was able to make, his intelligence/recall, and his ability to see some thing pre-snap that were on film and then manipulate safeties with his eyes, but you don't see any film against elite defensive talent.

While none of this is his fault, I think we've gone WAY too far in cementing him as a great prospect that somehow doesn't have any deficiencies or concerns.

It's funny to me that if Justin Fields would have sat out against Alabama with the rib(s) injury after what he did vs. Clemson, he's likely the clear cut #2 prospect/pick.

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22 minutes ago, NYRaider said:

That's true. But it's pretty rare that a QB goes #1 and lives up to the hype, especially guys that are touted as special prospects. Over the last 20 years the only two that have really lived up to expectations are Eli Manning and Andrew Luck. 

How did Luck live up to expectations but not Newton?  Especially considering how hated Newton was as a prospect (which I have to say, lot of revisionist history on how Newton was viewed as a prospect by the majority of people), I think he definitely exceeded expectations.  Especially at that time because mobile QBs like Cam just almost never worked out.  He really was the first of his type (again around that time period) that I can remember actually working out.  I think people view him as a good prospect by today's standards, but in 2011 he was seen as a huge project that wouldn't be able to start Year 1 or even Year 2.  So I think he definitely lived up to and exceeded the expectations.

I think in general though nothing is guaranteed but you are getting a safe bet, usually, picking #1.  It isn't like Palmer and Stafford weren't/aren't good QBs either.  Smith eventually turned into a good starter too.  Really the only 2 guys who have flat-out sucked were Russell and Carr (and Carr was put into a terrible situation... Russell was too but probably wouldn't have made a difference).  And really ultimately that is all you want.  A good QB.  

Edited by iknowcool
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3 minutes ago, iknowcool said:

How did Luck live up to expectations but not Newton?  Especially considering how hated Newton was as a prospect (which I have to say, lot of revisionist history on how Newton was viewed as a prospect by the majority of people), I think he definitely exceeded expectations.  

I was referring to guys that are viewed as transcendent players coming into the draft like Lawerence is. Lawerence like Luck has been viewed as a lock to go #1 since he was a freshman. Despite not winning a Super Bowl, Luck at his best was a top tier QB. 

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4 minutes ago, NYRaider said:

I was referring to guys that are viewed as transcendent players coming into the draft like Lawerence is. Lawerence like Luck has been viewed as a lock to go #1 since he was a freshman. Despite not winning a Super Bowl, Luck at his best was a top tier QB. 

That's fair, but how many guys have been viewed like that in the last 20 years anyway?  Luck and Manning may be the only two, but if there have only been 3, then it isn't really a bad thing.  And Vick is probably the only other guy who was viewed as transcendent at the QB position in the way you are describing.  

Edited by iknowcool
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49 minutes ago, NYRaider said:

That's true. But it's pretty rare that a QB goes #1 and lives up to the hype, especially guys that are touted as special prospects. Over the last 20 years the only two that have really lived up to expectations are Eli Manning and Andrew Luck. 

Lawerence has so much hype coming into the league he's going to have to be a Mahomes level player to live up to it. 

Mahomes level player? Yeah...idk about that.

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