Official 2021 QB Thread

[Hunter2_1]

I dunno about Lance. I personally wouldn't draft him early, but I wonder if Mahomes has blinkered scouts a bit. Lance has the raw materials to be an athletic QB with a rocket arm who makes plays all over the place.

Im torn between teams considering him a late 1st, early 2nd type...or if he'll be taken in top 15.

[LinebackerGod]

15 minutes ago, Hunter2_1 said:

I dunno about Lance. I personally wouldn't draft him early, but I wonder if Mahomes has blinkered scouts a bit. Lance has the raw materials to be an athletic QB with a rocket arm who makes plays all over the place.

Im torn between teams considering him a late 1st, early 2nd type...or if he'll be taken in top 15.

He'll be taken in the top 10 for sure. Too many tools to slide out of that range. I like Lance, but QB's are almost ALL projection because of the monumental mental jump necessary to learn the NFL game. I don't know about Lance's leadership and maturity...haven't heard a peep either way on that front. But that is what will make or break him. It's why Josh Allen was able to overcome his deficiencies. The dude was a great leader and thirsty to improve. It's why QB evals are usually the hardest to get right. Any idiot with an agent can fool a GM into thinking that he's going to work hard and be a student of the game.

While other positions need to have the ability to learn, it's not remotely close to what's necessary for the QB position.

Edited February 26, 2021 by GodOfLinebackers

[Ozzy]

Quarterbacks with only one full season as a starting QB in college that I can recall recently who were drafted.  Many saw action every now and again before the good final season, unlike Dwayne Haskins who was basically that one great season.  

 

Kyler Murray JR QB 1st pick overall
Mitchell Trubisky RS SOPH QB 2nd pick overall
Dwayne Haskins RS SOPH QB 15th pick overall
Mark Sanchez JR QB USC 5th pick overall
Ryan Tannehill SR QB 8th pick overall

 

Tannehill is a little outlier because he was a WR at Texas A&M and was transitioning to QB, played a little as a JR and split time then was a full time starter as a senior.  Cam Newton could be included as well but he was a starting QB in JUCO before he went to Auburn and won a National Championship at that level so there is something to that.  Also with Murray he had one foot into the MLB so that had a little something to do with it along with the transfer where he had to sit behind Baker.

 

Got some rare air this season with Trey Lance who literally only started one full season his entire career and is entering as a RS SOPH and pretty much did not play his RS SOPH year outside of that one game.  Mac Jones I guess could be included because he was only a full time starter this year but he did start as a SOPH when Tua was out in some big games last year.  Clearly took it to another level this season.

 

RS SOPH QBs to enter the draft recently that I can recall.

Trey Lance
Dwayne Haskins
Sam Darnold
Jameis Winston
DeShone Kizer
Johnny Manziel
Mike Vick

 

 

Clearly teams are going to reach more and more to find the impressive young QBs.  Kyler has been successful but I think that is more the NFL is still trying to catch up to his style of playing, and at times this year he really struggled. 

Edited February 28, 2021 by Ozzy

[Forge]

2 hours ago, Ozzy said:

RS SOPH QBs to enter the draft recently that I can recall.

Trey Lance
Dwayne Haskins
Josh Allen
Sam Darnold
Mitchell Trubisky
Jameis Winston
DeShone Kizer
Johnny Manziel
Mike Vick

Allen was a redshirt junior. There was talk at one point in the 17 draft that he was going to declare but ended up going back. He had one year at juco. 

Trubisky was also a redshirt junior

[Ozzy]

8 hours ago, Forge said:

Allen was a redshirt junior. There was talk at one point in the 17 draft that he was going to declare but ended up going back. He had one year at juco. 

Trubisky was also a redshirt junior

Oh my mistake, I thought both were RS SOPH players.  I will have to correct that.  

[Xenos]

Peter King does a nice little story piece on Zach Wilson:

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2021/02/28/nfl-17-game-schedule-zach-wilson-fmia-peter-king/
 

Quote

In the video from three games I watched, there was one throw that I thought was the kind of NFL throw scouts and pro coaches would love. It happened in the Cougars’ only loss of the year, that crazy Saturday night game at Coastal Carolina that got invented three days before the game, with BYU flying to South Carolina for the game 40 hours after finding out they were playing in it.

BYU trailed 22-17 with 35 seconds left. Second-and-19 at the Cougar 9-yard line. No timeouts left. Desperation time. What Wilson said about this play when I asked him sounded like Tiger Woods remembering in vivid detail his second shot on 14 in the third round of the ’19 Masters, or Peyton Manning recalling a 15-year-old play like it happened five minutes ago. And this, I can assure you, will be music to the ears of teams wondering, “What kind of student of the game is Wilson?” Because he’ll need to be a good one in the NFL.

“I had plenty of time to prepare for the game,” he said.

Oh really? Two days?

Wilson: “I had a couple of tells in that game. Coastal Carolina subbed in number four (linebacker Kendricks Gladney Jr.)—he was lined up over the center and I knew that when he did that and they were in their two-minute situation, they were gonna play a ‘two-invert,’ where the safeties would play the seams. The safeties would sink and the corners would actually roll and go and hug the high post and then the backers would sprint underneath to the flats. I knew exactly what coverage was coming based on where [Gladney] was lined up. We had called a ‘four verts’ package there [four receivers running go routes or forms of them] and I knew based on timing and everything that I wasn’t gonna be able to hold the ball or throw the ball on time. I knew that I was gonna have to hold it and move around a little bit and try to find something. I remember just knowing in that coverage, when the corner to the field had the vertical seam by the slot, that he’s gonna roll over and try to take it away. and someone else is gonna run underneath [our] outside guy and play in the flat. I knew there was a shot where if I could put that ball right over the guy in the flat, and on the back shoulder to where that corner is playing the seam, there was a little window right there almost like a hole shot at [BYU receiver Gunner Romney]. I just remember, if I keep my eyes down the field, I’ll hold him and I’ll just keep that corner looking then I can fire that shot in there and that’d be a big gain.”

On the play, as best you can, watch Wilson’s eyes, or his head. Looks left, looks left, quick glance to the middle, then a millisecond look to the right and the hardest throw he could make. “I was holding the middle of the field,” Wilson said. “I was really trying to get those corners to think I was throwing down the middle of the field.”

Beck was watching from home in California. “That ball has to be driven,” Beck said. “We have a saying—you can’t just throw it, sometimes you have to drive it through the receiver. That play was a perfect example.”

Wilson howitzered the ball 41 yards in the air, to a point about two feet over Romney’s head. Romney leaped and came down with it. In 35 seconds, with no timeouts, Wilson took BYU 90 yards. He needed 91. The game ended with a completed catch a yard short of the end zone. It was BYU’s only loss of the year. “After the game,” BYU offensive coordinator Roderick said, “Zach went around to every guy in that locker room and said, “I gotta play better.’ “

 

[49ersfan]

Chris Simms released his QB rankings. Thoughts? 

1. Zach Wilson

2. Trevor Lawrence

3. Mac Jones

4. Kellen Mond

5. Justin Fields

6. Trey Lance

It is a little out there, but very rarely do pre & post draft QB rankings sync up anyway. Its also nice to see something different

I think Lawrence & Wilson will be the top 2 picks. Interested to see where the rest land. Do they fall?

 

[LinebackerGod]

Just officially studied Zach Wilson yesterday. He's got some unbelievable traits. He's got a great arm, solid athleticism, and puts the ball in crazy good spots. He reminds me a little bit of Baker Mayfield in terms of accuracy and ball placement. He's going to be good. I'm still taking Lawrence over him without question, but Wilson is significantly better than Justin Fields.

I've never been a Justin Fields fan. Got roasted for that a few months ago.

[jrry32]

26 minutes ago, LinebackerGod said:

Just officially studied Zach Wilson yesterday. He's got some unbelievable traits. He's got a great arm, solid athleticism, and puts the ball in crazy good spots. He reminds me a little bit of Baker Mayfield in terms of accuracy and ball placement. He's going to be good. I'm still taking Lawrence over him without question, but Wilson is significantly better than Justin Fields.

I've never been a Justin Fields fan. Got roasted for that a few months ago.

Wilson's playing style and physical traits reminded me so much of Aaron Rodgers. Runs around to buy time and then nonchalantly whips the ball to a receiver who has broken free of coverage in a spot nobody expects him to be able to put the ball. Lawrence is my #1, but Wilson is much closer to him than Fields imo.

It's not a knock on Fields. He's a talented prospect, but he has a lot of developing to do in terms of processing and seeing the field. Wilson already processes quickly and has that innate feel that the great ones do of where his guys are on the field at all times.

[jrry32]

44 minutes ago, 49ersfan said:

Chris Simms released his QB rankings. Thoughts? 

1. Zach Wilson

2. Trevor Lawrence

3. Mac Jones

4. Kellen Mond

5. Justin Fields

6. Trey Lance

It is a little out there, but very rarely do pre & post draft QB rankings sync up anyway. Its also nice to see something different

I think Lawrence & Wilson will be the top 2 picks. Interested to see where the rest land. Do they fall?

 

The fact that the dude feels the need to tell us about the ones he got right to try and make himself seem credible only makes me feel the opposite about him. It's like a guy who has to tell you how smart he is before he explains his idea. If you're as good/smart as you think, your work (past and present) should speak for itself. 

[tyler735]

1 hour ago, 49ersfan said:

Chris Simms released his QB rankings. Thoughts? 

1. Zach Wilson

2. Trevor Lawrence

3. Mac Jones

4. Kellen Mond

5. Justin Fields

6. Trey Lance

It is a little out there, but very rarely do pre & post draft QB rankings sync up anyway. Its also nice to see something different

I think Lawrence & Wilson will be the top 2 picks. Interested to see where the rest land. Do they fall?

 

Honestly don't think he will be that far off when all is said and done. I don't blame him for keeping receipts in years past. I'm sure people didn't hesitate to throw shade when he made those predictions...Sometimes it's fun to throw it back a little bit even if it's not "taking the high road". I think Wilson (I think he's going to be the best QB in this class) and Jones are going to exceed expectations, and Lawrence, Fields, and Lance aren't going to be quite as good as they are hyped up to be. I still think Lawrence will be a really good NFL QB, but not the elite guy many think he will be. Mond seems a bit high for my liking, but who knows, his body of work in college is pretty solid, he's got plus athleticism and a quality arm. He's probably my favorite mid round QB in the draft.

Edited March 3, 2021 by tyler735

[Scoundrel]

23 minutes ago, jrry32 said:

The fact that the dude feels the need to tell us about the ones he got right to try and make himself seem credible only makes me feel the opposite about him. It's like a guy who has to tell you how smart he is before he explains his idea. If you're as good/smart as you think, your work (past and present) should speak for itself. 

I know a guy who does this religiously 

[Mox]

The top QB taken has only been the best QB in his class twice (counting Jameis over Mariota as one of them) in almost a decade. It wouldn't at all surprise me if Wilson was superior to Lawrence.

#1 QB, Best QB

2012-Andrew Luck, Russell Wilson

2013-EJ Manuel, Geno Smith?

2014-Blake Bortles, Derek Carr

2015-Jameis Winston 

2016-Jared Goff, Dak Prescott

2017-Mitch Trubisky, Patrick Mahomes

2018-Baker Mayfield, Lamar Jackson or Josh Allen

2019-Kyler Murray (early but seems pretty obvious)

2020-Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert (still early)

 

 

[jrry32]

21 minutes ago, Bullet Club said:

The top QB taken has only been the best QB in his class twice (counting Jameis over Mariota as one of them) in almost a decade. It wouldn't at all surprise me if Wilson was superior to Lawrence.

#1 QB, Best QB

2012-Andrew Luck, Russell Wilson

2013-EJ Manuel, Geno Smith?

2014-Blake Bortles, Derek Carr

2015-Jameis Winston 

2016-Jared Goff, Dak Prescott

2017-Mitch Trubisky, Patrick Mahomes

2018-Baker Mayfield, Lamar Jackson or Josh Allen

2019-Kyler Murray (early but seems pretty obvious)

2020-Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert (still early)

 

 

That's certainly an accurate point. I think it's worth acknowledging that the best prospect isn't necessarily the best player. When evaluating prospects, you're looking at floors and ceilings. Lawrence is the best prospect in this class because he's the safest bet to be a top 10 QB. But there are certainly realities where a bunch of QBs in this class could be better. There are some very high upside options.

[BrownLeader]