Raiders Offense Thread 2.0:

[jimkelly02]

1 hour ago, RaidersAreOne said:

McDonald :

Three teams have increased their per game scoring through 15 games more than the #Raiders this season: Buffalo (10.1), Pittsburgh (8.2) and Green Bay (8.0). All are 12-3. The Raiders average 7.2 points more per game and are in the same place at 7-8.

So Carr’s got us averaging 7.2 ppl more and it’s his fault not the defenses.... yup you Carr haters make perfect sense!

carr isn’t perfect but he’s cheap and good....  without a full rebuild and giving up massive assets were not gonna get anyone better.  Just build the defense to a respectable level and we can win.

[Frankie2Gunz]

9 hours ago, SilverNBlackFan said:

We will be better equipped to build a competent defense with a QB on a rookie deal vs one in Carr who will most likely want a new big deal after this upcoming year. 

The defense doesn't have one player I can look at and say is a long term starter. Kwiakowski is the best player and he's a 2 down player. The cupboard is bare. I don't see it as an quick easy fix, as some do. I think we are years away from competing on that side of the ball. Carr's timeline, imo, doesn't match up with that. He's a good QB but not good enough to compensate for as many deficiencies as we have. He's also an overly reliant QB, who needs a high paid Oline in front of him to function. 

We go out and throw a big money deal at Leonard Williams, but what does that mean for the offense. We lose Kolton Miller? Can't resign Algholor? Then people will be complaining about how Carr doesn't have the help. 

Look at the top teams around the NFL and how they are built. They either have a transcendent talent at QB capable of overcoming roster deficiencies (Packers, Chiefs, Seahawks), either a young upstart QB still on a rookie deal which benefits the team putting a well rounded roster around them (Bills, Ravens, Dolphins, Browns, Cardinals), or you have the legendary proven winners at QB on their last legs and most are on below the market deals for QBs (Brees, Brady, Rivers, Big Ben). The only good team I see that is comparable to ours with Carr is the Titans. They paid a non elite QB in Tannehill (although he's better than Carr) and now their defense is shaky. I doubt they go far in the playoffs unless Henry goes full hulk mode again.

Explain to me how what you're saying is a fact? 

They let Casey walk, who is old and he has done nothing in Denver.  Not paying him was clearly smart. 

Woodyard is 34, not paying him was smart.

Logan Ryan has been meh in NY. 

How do you know that they just didn't let them walk and that Tannehill's contract is the reson these players were no resigned?  

It looks like a GM deciding not to pay players on the downside of their careers.  They still had the money to sign Clowney?  I'm not sure I'm following your logic here. 

Edited January 3, 2021 by Frankie2Gunz

[oakdb36]

4 minutes ago, Frankie2Gunz said:

It looks like a smart GM to me by not paying them.  They still had the money to sign Clowney?  I'm not sure I'm following your logic here. 

They signed Beasley too. They spent 20M+ on 2 pass rushers who didn't get them 1 sack. They had the cap space but made the wrong signings.

[Frankie2Gunz]

10 minutes ago, oakdb36 said:

They signed Beasley too. They spent 20M+ on 2 pass rushers who didn't get them 1 sack. They had the cap space but made the wrong signings.

Exactly.  His comment literally made zero sense when I looked up to see if what he was saying was true. 

[Humble_Beast]

2 hours ago, jimkelly02 said:

I was begging to trade for Corey Davis for 2 years.... but now he’s played so well he’s basically guaranteed himSelf 12-14M per year.  He’s too expensive for us.

there’s a good chance we go after aj green because of the veteran angle plus his contract value has dropped so much in the last year that he’d be affordable.  But he can’t separate anymore and I wouldn’t want him.

I would rather just bring back Agholor. 

[jimkelly02]

27 minutes ago, Humble_Beast said:

I would rather just bring back Agholor. 

Agree... I was simply saying I predicted Davis’s breakout. But as I said he out priced himself for us this season.  
Id like to have agholor back on a deal like:

2y, 15M with 1.5m annually in Unlikely to be achieved incentives (60 catches, 950 yds, 9 TDs (it’d have to be 10 if he has one today) that all pay 500k each)

yr 1: 5.0M Roster Bonus, 2.0M salary fully guaranteed 

yr 2: 4.0M Roster Bonus paid day 5 of league year, 4.0m salary guaranteed upon Activation of roster bonus 

that’d give us the ability to move on if he doesn’t duplicate his success.

Agholor did have a great season but he only had 47 catches thru 15 games.  That would be my argument in negotiations.  If his yds per catch or yards per target didn’t jump 40ish% then his numbers wouldn’t be impressive.... and duplicating 17.9Yds/rec will be a very hard task.

 

Edited January 3, 2021 by jimkelly02

[jimkelly02]

2 hours ago, Frankie2Gunz said:

Exactly.  His comment literally made zero sense when I looked up to see if what he was saying was true. 

That makes ....

M.Collins’ 6.0M for 6 solo tackles and 6 asst tackles, 1 QB hit, 0 sacks, 6 pressures 

Carl Nassib’s 3y,25M (and a cap hit of 9.5M in ‘21 that’s guaranteed 5.75M) for 16 solo Tkls and 11 asst tackles, 2.5 sacks, 5 PD, 9 QB hits, 12 pressures, 1 int

..... look like a massive steal!!

Remember when I was critical of the 2nd year guarantees in Nassibs contract and several of you said I was being ridiculous and he’s gonna be a 8+ sack DE and monster versus the run?  Yeah.... well I do.

Thank god we signed these two guys.... they really helped us and were worth the money (sarcasm)

 

[Humble_Beast]

2 minutes ago, jimkelly02 said:

That makes ....

M.Collins’ 6.0M for 6 solo tackles and 6 asst tackles, 1 QB hit, 0 sacks, 6 pressures 

Carl Nassib’s 3y,25M (and a cap hit of 9.5M in ‘21 that’s guaranteed 5.75M) for 16 solo Tkls and 11 asst tackles, 2.5 sacks, 5 PD, 9 QB hits, 12 pressures, 1 int

..... look like a massive steal!!

Remember when I was critical of the 2nd year guarantees in Nassibs contract and several of you said I was being ridiculous and he’s gonna be a 8+ sack DE and monster versus the run?  Yeah.... well I do.

Thank god we signed these two guys.... they really helped us and were worth the money (sarcasm)

 

Last year offseason was trash. People make excuses because of the virus, but we didn’t do much to improve the team. A lot of misses last offseason. Makes the 2019 offseason look so much better, and that includes the AB FIASCO! 

[dante9876]

Ingram is done in bmore.  He could be a cheap back up rb. 

[Frankie2Gunz]

3 minutes ago, dante9876 said:

Ingram is done in bmore.  He could be a cheap back up rb. 

I would like to sign him on the cheap and let Booker go.  I've always liked Ingrams running style and at this point in his career Ingram is still a better back that Booker.

[NYRaider]

13 hours ago, ronjon1990 said:

Cute that you use 36 games to prove a point against 3.

Why would a 3 game sample size prove more than a 36 game sample size? Hurts has played okay in 3 games but to say he’s better than Jackson could ever dream to be because he put up bulk stats in losses against bad defenses, come on man. Not to mention we will have to see how Hurts plays with teams game planning to stop him and with games of tape to study. Anyone can be a flash in the pan, it’s tough to sustain success like Jackson has. And Hurts flash in the pan hasn’t even been anything great or notable, IIRC he has more turnovers in the red zone through 3 games then Jackson has in 36. 

Edited January 3, 2021 by NYRaider

[jimkelly02]

16 hours ago, SilverNBlackFan said:

We will be better equipped to build a competent defense with a QB on a rookie deal vs one in Carr who will most likely want a new big deal after this upcoming year. 

The defense doesn't have one player I can look at and say is a long term starter. Kwiakowski is the best player and he's a 2 down player. The cupboard is bare. I don't see it as an quick easy fix, as some do. I think we are years away from competing on that side of the ball. Carr's timeline, imo, doesn't match up with that. He's a good QB but not good enough to compensate for as many deficiencies as we have. He's also an overly reliant QB, who needs a high paid Oline in front of him to function. 

We go out and throw a big money deal at Leonard Williams, but what does that mean for the offense. We lose Kolton Miller? Can't resign Algholor? Then people will be complaining about how Carr doesn't have the help. 

Look at the top teams around the NFL and how they are built. They either have a transcendent talent at QB capable of overcoming roster deficiencies (Packers, Chiefs, Seahawks), either a young upstart QB still on a rookie deal which benefits the team putting a well rounded roster around them (Bills, Ravens, Dolphins, Browns, Cardinals), or you have the legendary proven winners at QB on their last legs and most are on below the market deals for QBs (Brees, Brady, Rivers, Big Ben). The only good team I see that is comparable to ours with Carr is the Titans. They paid a non elite QB in Tannehill (although he's better than Carr) and now their defense is shaky. I doubt they go far in the playoffs unless Henry goes full hulk mode again.

This might sound crazy to some, but I don’t think trading Carr and drafting a rookie saves a single dollar over the next 2 years.  Let me break it down:

Carr costs 22.125M and 19.877M in ‘21 and ‘22 which totals 42M.

If we trade Carr we have a dead cap hit of 2.5M.  It’d likely cost us AT VERY LEAST carr, ‘21 1st+2nd, ‘22 1st to trade up to 4/5 to get Fields or Wilson.  

We’d have to / would likely retain Mariota to start until the rookie is ready or at least sign a FA, such as Fitzpatrick/Dalton, to start the first 4-8 games and mentor the rookie. You wouldn’t be able to get a veteran QB to come in for a Newton/Winston for >2m type deal because the only reason those two took the cheap 1 year deal was because they were getting on themselves to become the team’s starter the next season and get a big payday.  With Wilson/Fields as the teams heir apparent starter there’s no chance of being resigned at starter money.  So we’d either retain Mariota @ 1y/10m or sign a mentor QB for 3-8M.

Already it becomes apparent that moving on from Carr isn’t going to free up cap room to spend on the defense:

Carr ‘21 (22.125m) vs Carr’s dead cap (2.5m) - Mentor QB (10m or 3-8M) - Rookie QBs first year cap hit (6m)..... that’s only a savings of 3.5-10m.  That’s amount of money isn’t buying much help on defense.

But here’s the thing..... we haven’t even calculated the opportunity cost of trading away all those draft picks.  So let’s look at the opportunity cost of trading up......

Based on A.Thomas (5.9/7.4) and Tua’s (5.5/6.9) contracts and slight inflation (based on Ferrell (5.7/7.1) and White’s (5.3/6.8)) it can be assumed that the #4/5 pick will cost around 5.8-6.2m and 7.5-8.0m.... so let’s call it 2yrs/14M. Ceedee Lamb was picked #17 and costs 2.55 and 3.2m in his first 2 years, totaling 5.75m... but with inflation call it 2y/6m That’s a difference of 8M over 2y. Then there’s the opportunity cost of not being able to draft a starting CB/DE/DT/etc at #17 so you have to go out and sign a FA for 2 years to start at whatever position #17 would have. So variable “A” = 8m - 2yr contract of a FA starter.  This is very very likely a negative number.

The ‘22 first is hard to predict where it’d fall but assuming we start Mariota/mentor QB til the rookie QB is ready and we still have a bad defense, since we didn’t have a 1st round and or 2nd round pick to add talent to it and didn’t have a massive cap savings from moving on from Carr in year 1.... so I’d assume we’re picking top 8.  #8 (a best case scenario IMO for how many games we’d win) would have a first year cap hit of around 4.25-4.5M in ‘22.  Now what would it cost to go out and sign a starter at position you’d draft that high (QB, WR,  LT, CB, DE, DT)? Subtract that number from 4.5 and call it variable b.

Lastly, pick #48 would cost 1.5m and 1.8m.  Over the next 2 years, Totaling 3.3M. Subtract 3.3m the cost of replacing that pick with a FA for 2 years and call it variable c.

So the formula  for the 2 year comparison is:

Carr’s 42m vs 2.5m dead cap + 1 yr of mentor QB + opportunity cost of a+b+c

It ends up being incredibly Risky to put that much capital up to move up for a QB, you dont free to much cap space to build up the defense in ‘21, and you end up spending more money in total because veterans in FA cost so much more than 1st and 2nd round picks.

Carr’s contract is so team friendly that as long as he’s playing well he’s going to stay for the next 2 years.  We’re in no position to trade major draft assets to move up top 8.  That could have happened after the Cooper+Mack trades but didn’t. 

I don’t understand why people keep saying “we’d save so much money with a rookie QB”.... once you actually do the math it’s very apparent that’s a fallacy.  
 

Oh yeah.... and by the way we can absolutely afford to sign Leonard Williams and still extend Miller and resign Agholor.  We don’t have an insane amount of money but if we cut the fat on this roster there’s definitely enough money to sign 1 Top FA and retain our guys.

Edited January 4, 2021 by jimkelly02

[drfrey13]

4 hours ago, jimkelly02 said:

Agree... I was simply saying I predicted Davis’s breakout. But as I said he out priced himself for us this season.  
Id like to have agholor back on a deal like:

2y, 15M with 1.5m annually in Unlikely to be achieved incentives (60 catches, 950 yds, 9 TDs (it’d have to be 10 if he has one today) that all pay 500k each)

yr 1: 5.0M Roster Bonus, 2.0M salary fully guaranteed 

yr 2: 4.0M Roster Bonus paid day 5 of league year, 4.0m salary guaranteed upon Activation of roster bonus 

that’d give us the ability to move on if he doesn’t duplicate his success.

Agholor did have a great season but he only had 47 catches thru 15 games.  That would be my argument in negotiations.  If his yds per catch or yards per target didn’t jump 40ish% then his numbers wouldn’t be impressive.... and duplicating 17.9Yds/rec will be a very hard task.

 

I would not give him that much.  He was our best WR this year but that is not saying much.  I would give him $9-10 on a 2 year deal and if he wants more he can walk and we can let Ruggs do what he was drafted for.  Without Ruggs I would give more than $10 but he was a place holder that did well when given the opportunity.  Next year hopefully Ruggs replaces Agholor and Edwards replaces Williams.  Then we can find replacements on the line and have money to spend on the defense. For me only Good and Miller are safe on the offensive line.

[jimkelly02]

55 minutes ago, drfrey13 said:

I would not give him that much.  He was our best WR this year but that is not saying much.  I would give him $9-10 on a 2 year deal and if he wants more he can walk and we can let Ruggs do what he was drafted for.  Without Ruggs I would give more than $10 but he was a place holder that did well when given the opportunity.  Next year hopefully Ruggs replaces Agholor and Edwards replaces Williams.  Then we can find replacements on the line and have money to spend on the defense. For me only Good and Miller are safe on the offensive line.

https://overthecap.com/position/wide-receiver/
 

look At what 3rd WRs make....  it’s way more Than 4.5-5.0m annually 

if you don’t want to Spend money on a WR that’s fine but there’s no way Agholor would ever sign for that or you could replace him For that.

It’s more than I want to Pay him but that’s the low End of the going rate.  It’s easy to Say we should move on from him But imagine this offense without him.... iD be very bad

Edited January 4, 2021 by jimkelly02

[drfrey13]

2 hours ago, jimkelly02 said:

https://overthecap.com/position/wide-receiver/
 

look At what 3rd WRs make....  it’s way more Than 4.5-5.0m annually 

if you don’t want to Spend money on a WR that’s fine but there’s no way Agholor would ever sign for that or you could replace him For that.

It’s more than I want to Pay him but that’s the low End of the going rate.  It’s easy to Say we should move on from him But imagine this offense without him.... iD be very bad

I see him as a place holder for Ruggs.  We need a bigger possession type WR more.  He is not as valuable to use if we are going to get usage out of Ruggs.  That is why I said if we did not have Ruggs I would pay Agholor more money.