The AFC Playoff Picture

[JDD]

If the Browns lock up a seed and can’t get better with a win should we sit our starters week 17?

 

Ive always been against a team with a first round bye sitting their starters for week 17 because it seemed that you start slow when you have 2 weeks off. But giving the starters a week off before the playoffs is this a good move? 

[candyman93]

3 minutes ago, JDD said:

If the Browns lock up a seed and can’t get better with a win should we sit our starters week 17?

Yes

 

Unless it’s Kansas City round 1.

[hornbybrown]

So the Steelers lose to the Bills next week and we beat the Ravens things get a little interesting....

[Thomas5737]

2 hours ago, candyman93 said:

2 hours ago, JDD said:

If the Browns lock up a seed and can’t get better with a win should we sit our starters week 17?

Yes

 

Unless it’s Kansas City round 1.

Yeah, a lot of variables and even then there is no history that one works better than the other. So, I dunno.

[kayelcio]

[bruceb]

19 hours ago, hornbybrown said:

So the Steelers lose to the Bills next week and we beat the Ravens things get a little interesting....

Per to @Thomas5737 the way it really gets interesting is if BUF or someone can beat them, CIN beats them, and we of course beat them too.

 

[buno67]

7 minutes ago, bruceb said:

19 hours ago, hornbybrown said:

So the Steelers lose to the Bills next week and we beat the Ravens things get a little interesting....

Per to @Thomas5737 the way it really gets interesting is if BUF or someone can beat them, CIN beats them, and we of course beat them too.

Reality their are a coupkes scenarios.

We need the Steelers to 

1. Lose out, cause why, not...that would be 11-5 with an epic collapse. I assume we win out as well and take the division out right.
2. Steelers lose to Buffalo and Indy. I truly dont see them losing to Cincy. Losing those games makes them 12-3 going into week17. Browns win out and they are 12-3. you win and finish at 13-3 and the Steelers go 12-4 and we win the division out right
3. Steelers beat Buffalo and Indy but lose to Cincy. So Browns win out. Week17, Steelers are 13-2 and the Browns are 12-3. Browns win and go 13-3 and the Steelers go 13-3.
   1. first tie breaker is H2H, well its a split, so we move to next tie breaker
   2. second tie breaker is Division record, we would both be 4-2. Browns  4-2 (Steelers and Ravens) Steelers 4-2(Cincy and Browns). So we move to the next tie breaker
   3. third tie breaker is Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.. I believe the Browns would be 11-1 with their lone common game loss being the Ravens. Steelers would be 10-2 with common game losses being Cincy and Washington. BROWNS WIN THE DIVISION BY TIE BREAKER!!

[bruceb]

29 minutes ago, buno67 said:

Reality their are a coupkes scenarios.

We need the Steelers to 

1. Lose out, cause why, not...that would be 11-5 with an epic collapse. I assume we win out as well and take the division out right.
2. Steelers lose to Buffalo and Indy. I truly dont see them losing to Cincy. Losing those games makes them 12-3 going into week17. Browns win out and they are 12-3. you win and finish at 13-3 and the Steelers go 12-4 and we win the division out right
3. Steelers beat Buffalo and Indy but lose to Cincy. So Browns win out. Week17, Steelers are 13-2 and the Browns are 12-3. Browns win and go 13-3 and the Steelers go 13-3.
   1. first tie breaker is H2H, well its a split, so we move to next tie breaker
   2. second tie breaker is Division record, we would both be 4-2. Browns  4-2 (Steelers and Ravens) Steelers 4-2(Cincy and Browns). So we move to the next tie breaker
   3. third tie breaker is Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.. I believe the Browns would be 11-1 with their lone common game loss being the Ravens. Steelers would be 10-2 with common game losses being Cincy and Washington. BROWNS WIN THE DIVISION BY TIE BREAKER!!

I'll take #3.

Btw: Thanks for laying it out.

Edited December 8, 2020 by bruceb

[buno67]

Just now, bruceb said:

I'll take #3.

I like #2 the best because I want more wins than them. I think they said on the radio this morning that the last time the Browns finished with more wins than the Steeler was '89 I believe...

[bruceb]

20 minutes ago, buno67 said:

I like #2 the best because I want more wins than them. I think they said on the radio this morning that the last time the Browns finished with more wins than the Steeler was '89 I believe...

Just trying to curb my slight sense of optimism with a dose of probability.

[candyman93]

Just beat the 2 New York teams and you’re most realistically in.

 

Miami is going to be murdered by their schedule.

 

Indys schedule is hard and we have a tie breaker over them.

 

I don’t see the Raiders realistically winning out, which they kinda have to.

[LETSGOBROWNIES]

42 minutes ago, candyman93 said:

Just beat the 2 New York teams and you’re most realistically in.

 

Miami is going to be murdered by their schedule.

 

Indys schedule is hard and we have a tie breaker over them.

 

I don’t see the Raiders realistically winning out, which they kinda have to.

Yeah, 11 wins and we’re in.

There was only one 11 win team not to make it when they had 6 teams, I don’t know if it would even be possible with 7 teams in.

[Thomas5737]

5 minutes ago, LETSGOBROWNIES said:

Yeah, 11 wins and we’re in.

There was only one 11 win team not to make it when they had 6 teams, I don’t know if it would even be possible with 7 teams in.

Math. Math makes it possible.

If Tenn/Colts both win out and Balt and Miami both end up with 11 wins we are out as the 8th seed.

[candyman93]

Even if I’m super pessimistic, I can’t see Miami winning 11 games. I think they’re about to bottom out honestly.

 

So my prediction is Cleveland, Baltimore, and Indianapolis as the 3 wildcard spots. Tennessee wins the division.

Edited December 9, 2020 by candyman93

[LETSGOBROWNIES]

51 minutes ago, Thomas5737 said:

Math. Math makes it possible.

If Tenn/Colts both win out and Balt and Miami both end up with 11 wins we are out as the 8th seed.

Ok, while it would still be mathematically possible, I like our odds if we get 11 wins. 😂