The Carr dilemma in 2021

[NCOUGHMAN]

4 minutes ago, BackinBlack said:

Honestly I have no idea, I am in the group that says, there is more than just Carr to determine that answer. 
Jefferson was targeted 125 times
Ruggs was targeted 43 times. 
- - 
did Ruggs have troubles catching slants in practice which is why Gruden was hesitant to call them in games? they didnt turn out well when he did. I wasnt there so i dont know.
does Gruden dial up 3 times more calls to Jefferson than he did in Ruggs? I dont know. (maybe Carr couldve forced more, but def not 80 haha)
Does Carr target Jefferson 125 times? probably not with Waller. 
Does Gruden run a harder O to pick up then Minn? no idea
Did Ruggs struggle to pick up the O where Jefferson wouldve exceled? no idea. 
Was Ruggs used as a decoy to open up underneath / run game? Whereas JEfferson the targeted WR?

-
I doubt Jefferson puts up his numbers in our O.
If Carr was QB of Minn last season, I think he couldve had similar numbers. 

 

Fair enough I hear you

[BackinBlack]

one thing I will say, is since Carr has been our QB no matter the WR, we drop a ton of catchable slants passes. I do wonder if there is something with Carrs release that puts a weird spin / trajectory on the ball on slants lol

Tough to "blame" Carr because they are acurate, but I do wonder if there is something going on. 

[Frankie2Gunz]

3 hours ago, BayRaider said:

He never has a horrible line outside of one season. He's had one horrible line his whole career which was 2018. 2014/2015 were Top 10 in Pass Pro, 2016 one of the best Pass Protections ever in this sport, #1 for that year (Cowboys #1 Overall), 2017 Top 5 Pass Pro, 2018 Bottom 10, 2019 Top 3 Pass Pro, and in 2020 he had a pretty average to slightly above-average line. No one spends more money on their line to protect their QB than the Raiders do. And we've seen how Carr performs without a great line... it isn't pretty. One of the perks of a QB like Mahomes, Rodgers, Wilson, Allen, Watson, etc is that they don't need a great line to have a great season.

He consistently has had a Top 5 TE since 2017. Cook was Top 5 during his tenure here, although age has caught up to him the past season or two.

He had a solid receiving core in 2015 through 2017. 2018-2019 I'll admit not so much. However, most QB's don't have a solid receiving core. I feel like some Raider fans always want Carr to have an all-star team. The receiving game, running game, line protection, and coaching all have to be 100% perfect or else anything Carr does that's bad "doesn't count" and he gets a free pass. It's amazing at the amount of excuses. As for 2020, his receiving core is much better. I always figured Carr wouldn't use a Ruggs type, and that's on him. Different QB would be fully taking advantage of Ruggs. Also Agholor is a solid starting WR in this league, and will be starting somewhere next year.

Do you have any idea how much of a factor QB snap to ball release is for Oline?  The fact that Carr has been one of the best in the NFL in snap to ball release over his career is a major factor in how the Oline is viewed in pass protection.  Put a bum like Winston back there that holds onto the ball forever and this Oline line is below average.  We have vastly overpaid our Oline as none of the players we have had along the line have been elite minus Hudson and Incognito.  Miller played well last year but is hardly in the elite category yet.  Also how have those Olines preformed in the run game over Carr's career?  Look at the RB's YPC over the span of Carr's career before you start flaunting how great our Oline play has been, that is unless you don't factor in snap to ball release and RB YPC into Oline play.

You tout Cook as a top TE?  Are you kidding me?  The guy was a career castoff who in his prior 8 seasons to joining the Raiders averaged 340 yards and 2TD's.  Carr made Cook appear better than he was based on sheer volume.  

Our WR's and RB's over Carr's career:

2014: Jones, Streater, Moore, Little, Holmes, Criner RB: MJD and Mcfadden

2015: Holmes, Streater, Jones, Butler, Tompkins, Roberts RB: Murray and MJD

2016: Cooper, Crabtree, Roberts, Holmes, Holton RB: Murry and T. Jones

2017:  Cooper, Crabtree, Holton, Paterson, Roberts RB:  Lynch and Washington

2018: Nelson, Ateman, Holton, Hatcher, Roberts RB:  Lynch and Martin

2019: JJ Nelson, Harris, Renfrow, Grant, Ateman RB: Jacobs and Richard

You can try to defend that list all you want but anyone that understands football looks at that list and knows what absolute garbage it is. 

Cooper is not an elite #1 and never will be.  He is a complimentary piece that that needs other players to be the focal point in order to have success and even then he is extremely inconstant.  He will certainly never live up to his top 5 draft pick status and no way will ever be worth the 20 million Old Man Jones shelled out for his soft a$$.

Crabtree was played well his first two years with the Raiders and had earned the trust of Carr because of his exceptional hands.  Make no mistake about it Crabtree was no where near an elite WR but was a solid number 2 and as soon as he left the Raiders his career was over.  

The rest of the WR's outside of Cooper and Crabs flat out worthless trash who don't belong on an NFL roster (minus Renfrow who is a decent slot WR). 

The list of RB's are also a joke minus Jacobs and Murray, who is a decent backup but has no business starting anywhere.  Fat old washed up bums like Lynch, MJD and Martin LOL Washington and T. Jones...  Mega bust garbage in DMC....  

It's pretty remarkable how inept the front office has been over the last decade but this list of absolute trash is a testament as to how bad the FO has been at drafting and acquiring talent of any type.  

 

Edited February 24, 2021 by Frankie2Gunz

[Jeremy408]

29 minutes ago, Frankie2Gunz said:

Do you have any idea how much of a factor QB snap to ball release is for Oline?  The fact that Carr has been one of the best in the NFL in snap to ball release over his career is a major factor in how the Oline is viewed in pass protection.  Put a bum like Winston back there that holds onto the ball forever and this Oline line is below average.  We have vastly overpaid our Oline as none of the players we have had along the line have been elite minus Hudson and Incognito.  Miller played well last year but is hardly in the elite category yet.  Also have have those Olines preformed in the run game over Carr's career?  Look at the RB's YPC over the span of Carr's career before you start flaunting how great our Oline play has been, that is unless you don't factor in snap to ball release and RB YPC into Oline play.

You tout Cook as a top TE?  Are you kidding me?  The guy was a career castoff who in his prior 8 seasons to joining the Raiders averaged 340 yards and 2TD's.  Carr made Cook appear better than he was based on sheer volume.  

Our WR's and RB's over Carr's career:

2014: Jones, Streater, Moore, Little, Holmes, Criner RB: MJD and Mcfadden

2015: Holmes, Streater, Jones, Butler, Tompkins, Roberts RB: Murray and MJD

2016: Cooper, Crabtree, Roberts, Holmes, Holton RB: Murry and T. Jones

2017:  Cooper, Crabtree, Holton, Paterson, Roberts RB:  Lynch and Washington

2018: Nelson, Ateman, Holton, Hatcher, Roberts RB:  Lynch and Martin

2019: JJ Nelson, Harris, Renfrow, Grant, Ateman RB: Jacobs and Richard

You can try to defend that list all you want but anyone that understands football looks at that list and knows what absolute garbage it is. 

Cooper is not an elite #1 and never will be.  He is a complimentary piece that that needs other players to be the focal point in order to have success and even then he is extremely inconstant.  He will certainly never live up to his top 5 draft pick status and no way will ever be worth the 20 million Old Man Jones shelled out for his soft a$$.

Crabtree was played well his first two years with the Raiders and had earned the trust of Carr because of his exceptional hands.  Make no mistake about it Crabtree was no where near an elite WR but was a solid number 2 and as soon as he left the Raiders his career was over.  

The rest of the WR's outside of Cooper and Crabs flat out worthless trash who don't belong on an NFL roster (minus Renfrow who is a decent slot WR). 

The list of RB's are also a joke minus Jacobs and Murray, who is a decent backup but has no business starting anywhere.  Fat old washed up bums like Lynch, MJD and Martin LOL Washington and T. Jones...  Mega bust garbage in DMC....  

It's pretty remarkable how inept the front office has been over the last decade but this list of absolute trash is a testament as to how bad the FO has been at drafting and acquiring talent of any type.  

 

Man preach! You are 100% right about everything you said. I’ve been saying this for years smh. 

[BayRaider]

2 hours ago, BackinBlack said:

one thing I will say, is since Carr has been our QB no matter the WR, we drop a ton of catchable slants passes. I do wonder if there is something with Carrs release that puts a weird spin / trajectory on the ball on slants lol

Tough to "blame" Carr because they are acurate, but I do wonder if there is something going on. 

Agreed here. It sounds ridiculous to "blame" a QB for drops, and it would especially sound haterish coming from me, but I've always thought Carr was the issue with the drops. Proof is when WR's go to another team, they have no drop problem. Cooper's drops fixed themselves on the Cowboys. Seth Roberts, the drop master, had zero drops during Lamars MVP season on the Ravens getting a decent volume of work. Then when WR's come here, they all of a sudden always have a drop problem after never having one. Tyrell's drops doubled after coming here. Also, Ruggs, the most sure-handed catcher in the 1st Round of WR's (PFF), all of a sudden has a case of dropsies in the NFL...

[Mr Raider]

3 hours ago, BayRaider said:

This 100%. Carr has been given so many resources and has been given way more than usual QB's get. The Raider Organization has done so much for him to succeed. And he hasn't quite lived up to the expectation.

To me that speaks more to a lack of understanding in the front office to what actually wins games and identifying talent deserving of their finacial resources more so than an indictment on Carr's ability to be successful. 

Like yeah. We have consistently spent a lot on offense, but most teams spend more on offense in todays age than defense for one. But if you look at the discrepancy you'll notice that spending so much on offense hasn't equated to wins, but the offense was average to good in 15, 16, 19, and 20. 

2015 - 17th in PPG, 24th in yards, 23rd in completion percentage, 20th in yards per play, 16th in passing yards but 7th in passing TDs, 28th in rushing yards, 25th in rushing TDs, 21st in rushing yards per carry. 

2016 7th in PPG, 6th in total yards, 10th in yards per play, 15th in completion percentage, 13th in passing yards, 8th in passing TDs, 6th in rushing yards, 6th in rushing TDs, 10th in rushing YPC, 4th best in turnover percentage. 

2017 - 23rd in PPG, 7th in total yards, 13th in yards per play, 17th in completion percentage, 16th in passing yards, 15th in passing attempts, 16th in passing TDs, 12th most passing INTs, 25th in rushing yards, 30th in rushing attempts, 13th in rushing TDs, 12th in rushing yards per attempt, 28th worst in turnover percentage. 

2018 - 28th in PPG, 23rd in Total Yards, 22nd in yards per play, 11th most total turnovers, 5th in completion percentage, 18th in passing yards, 16th in passing attempts, 25th in passing TDs, 8th best in terms of passing INTs, 25th in rushing yards, 24th in rushing attempts, 6th fewest rushing TDs, 24th in YPC, 8th best in turnover percentage. 

2019 - 24th in PPG, 11th in total yards, 9th in yards per play, 7th best in total turnovers, 8th best in yards per play, 2nd in completion percentage, 9th most passing yards, yet only 21st in attempts, 22nd in passing TDs, 5th lowest INTs in the league, 13th in rushing yards, 11th in rushing attempts, 19th in rusning TDs, 18th in YPC, 8th best in tunrover percentage. 

2020 - 10th in PPG, 8th in total yards, 8th in yards per play, 5th most total turnovers in the league, 10th in completion percentage, 7th in passing yards, but only 21st in attempts, 11th in passing TDs, 7th fewest INTs, 14th in rushing yards, 11th in attempts, 9th in rushing TDs, 19th in rushing YPC, 29th worst in turnover percentage. 

I take a few things away from this. 2017 and 2018 really has tarnished Derek Carr's standing in the NFL when you add on the struggles the team has had failing to have a winning record since 2016 it leads to people really failing to realize just how good of a QB Carr is. Carr is without a doubt a franchise QB. But he isn't an all time uber elite QB. 

And because he isn't that, he isnt a QB that can take a defense thats highest ranking in his career of 20th and make the team a consistent winner. Not only that, it's been a glaring trend of giving him a bottom 8 defense, AND a non existent running game. In 15, 17, 18, he literally had at best the 25th best team in terms of rushing yards, average at best in terms of rushing TDs and YPC, and bottom third in commitment to the run. So Carr has not only needed to carry a defense that has consistently been not only bad, but horrendous, AND carry an offense that throughout most of his career has shown a lack of willingness to run the football, and also a lack of success consistently when it is run. 

And that spans pretty much his entire career. Lets also not ignore that since he has came into the NFL in 2014 he has had 4 different head coaches (in 7 seasons), I believe 5 different offensive coordinators/play callers, and gone through 2 major rebuilds. 

So yeah, Carr isn't good enough to carry a bottom 5-10 defense, and also have a below averave running game and still churn out winning seasons, while also constantly having the offense and overall team construction and vision change regularly. My question is how many in the NFL history could? We have quite literally done everything besides give him good protection wrong in terms of developing a young QB. A consistent front office and coaching staff? Nope. A good defense? He's literally never had one. How about a dominant run game to take the pressure off? Never had that either. Heck how about even an average defense? Statistically speaking he's never even had that. We can lay the blame all we want on the spending of the money, but I don't believe that is Carr's fault. Because throughout his entire career how many legitimately good offensive players has he had at his disposal? A couple, and outside of the end with Amari I would argue Carr has gotten the most out of the vast majority of them. 

Carr deserves criticism for 2017 and 2018, but he did have a ton of injures, we started another major rebuild with more coaching changes and new offenses. Not to mention it's pretty normal for QBs to have a down season or two in their early 20s. A lot of even the all time greats had them. I would have loved to see Carr land on a franchise with stability and consistency. I believe he would be viewed as one of the best 10 QBs in the game without question. 

Sure we have spent a lot on offense, but look at the players on the rosters in 15, 16, 19, and 20 and tell me how much better could we realistically expected Carr to play with those specific players the money went towards? The disparity in money combined with the lack of team success tells me we have been abysmal in drafting and developing talent, particularly on the defensive side and find the right players deserving of their contracts in free agency far more than it tells me anything about Carr. 

Really what I have seen is a QB that can still engineer a top 10ish offense in the entire NFL without needing an elite WR, has a history of getting big production out of any TE he is given and is far more beneficial to his play than a good WR, if he gets even an average rushing game the offense then becomes just slightly under the elite category (the two years he's gotten high end rushing production the offense is among the best in the business), and give him a defense closer to 20 instead of 30 and he's capable of giving you an offense worthy of 10-13 wins. 

We can only speculate about what an elite running game and/or defense could do for his production. I was critical of Carr after 17 and 18, but when I look at what he did under the specific circumstances in 15, 19, and 20 I have firmly come onto the side of DC is the least of our worries and that the front office has failed him far more than he has failed us. Start hitting on some draft picks and getting free agents worth the money we give them and turn that into even a decent defense and Carr will show the world how good he really is. Very few QBs in recent memory have had the turmoil and lack of supporting talent on the rest of the 52 players than Carr. I don't care what the finacial breakdown says, that tells me the money was spent on players it shouldn't have been. Outside of the offensive line, which has been decent to good for most of his career, but if you add that to the long list of failures we have had constructing a team too it would literally be every other aspect of the game. I'm not going to fault Carr too much for needing a solid line because most QBs do and throughout his entire career we have given him not a ton to consistently rely on. 

End of long Carr rant. 

[NCOUGHMAN]

1 hour ago, BayRaider said:

Agreed here. It sounds ridiculous to "blame" a QB for drops, and it would especially sound haterish coming from me, but I've always thought Carr was the issue with the drops. Proof is when WR's go to another team, they have no drop problem. Cooper's drops fixed themselves on the Cowboys. Seth Roberts, the drop master, had zero drops during Lamars MVP season on the Ravens getting a decent volume of work. Then when WR's come here, they all of a sudden always have a drop problem after never having one. Tyrell's drops doubled after coming here. Also, Ruggs, the most sure-handed catcher in the 1st Round of WR's (PFF), all of a sudden has a case of dropsies in the NFL...

Meh if it hits your hands you gotta catch it but it’s a interesting trend. Except for hunter. Carr and hunter were made for each other 

[BayRaider]

7 minutes ago, NCOUGHMAN said:

Meh if it hits your hands you gotta catch it but it’s a interesting trend. Except for hunter. Carr and hunter were made for each other 

Agreed, you gotta catch it, but Carr is doing something off as well with tons of data to back that up. 

[bucksavage1]

1 hour ago, BayRaider said:

Agreed, you gotta catch it, but Carr is doing something off as well with tons of data to back that up. 

 

He doesn't pass enough to his WRs. So his WRs aren't engaged in the game as much. 

[NCOUGHMAN]

38 minutes ago, bucksavage1 said:

 

He doesn't pass enough to his WRs. So his WRs aren't engaged in the game as much. 

This. If you watch the tape during the game lack of targets influence wrs developing lazy routes. Saw it 2 yrs ago with ty will and 4 ago with coop. And now hr3 watch the tape. Nelly just had nothing to lose went hard every snap and got undeniably open esp on deep routes even he should’ve been 1k easy esp being available every game. 

[bucksavage1]

3 minutes ago, NCOUGHMAN said:

This. If you watch the tape during the game lack of targets influence wrs developing lazy routes. Saw it 2 yrs ago with ty will and 4 ago with coop. And now hr3 watch the tape. Nelly just had nothing to lose went hard every snap and got undeniably open esp on deep routes even he should’ve been 1k easy esp being available every game. 

Nelly was basically playing to stay in the NFL. He's a former super bowl champ and on a prove it deal. Still nearly every year Raiders are at the bottom of WR targets

[FloydFan]

Jfc the Carr haters in here just try to make one thing or another. I'll never forget the alpha male argument🤣 Biggest bunch of pearl clutchers I've ever seen. Analytically he is definitely above replacement level and was a top ten QB this year and has gotten better each year in Gruden's system. Short of getting Watson or Wilson, which we don't have the capital to do, what are we gonna do to upgrade? Let it go and please come to terms with the fact he is the guy going forward. Be realistic and quit looking for nonsense arguments to just try and back up the nonsense you've spouted over the past three years.

[bucksavage1]

3 minutes ago, FloydFan said:

Jfc the Carr haters in here just try to make one thing or another. I'll never forget the alpha male argument🤣 Biggest bunch of pearl clutchers I've ever seen. Analytically he is definitely above replacement level and was a top ten QB this year and has gotten better each year in Gruden's system. Short of getting Watson or Wilson, which we don't have the capital to do, what are we gonna do to upgrade? Let it go and please come to terms with the fact he is the guy going forward. Be realistic and quit looking for nonsense arguments to just try and back up the nonsense you've spouted over the past three years.

Another poster content with losing.  Where have the Raiders gone with Carr? 

 

We're in purgatory with Carr. Haven't won anything or elevated the team. Carr is basically a Ryan Fitzpatrick, Jay Cutler, Jeff George,  Dante Culpepper,   type QB. Good enough to put up numbers but little to no impact on winning. Good enough for 5-8 wins per year

We could literally trade Carr and start Mariota

 

Quote

Let it go and please come to terms with the fact he is the guy going forward.

I wouldn't say that yet. It seems to me that rumors are flying everywhere at this moment. I wouldnt deny that the Raiders shopped both Carr and Mariota gauge value. Also discuss extensions with agent. Nothing concrete yet until it happens

 

 

[SilverNBlackFan]

6 hours ago, bucksavage1 said:

 

He doesn't pass enough to his WRs. So his WRs aren't engaged in the game as much. 

3 straight years of being bottom 5 in the league in terms of WR targets, if the numbers I am looking at are correct.

We barely threw the ball more to our WRs last year than the Ravens, who are perhaps the most run heavy team in the modern era.

 

[Devilshark69]

11 hours ago, BayRaider said:

Agreed here. It sounds ridiculous to "blame" a QB for drops, and it would especially sound haterish coming from me, but I've always thought Carr was the issue with the drops. Proof is when WR's go to another team, they have no drop problem. Cooper's drops fixed themselves on the Cowboys. Seth Roberts, the drop master, had zero drops during Lamars MVP season on the Ravens getting a decent volume of work. Then when WR's come here, they all of a sudden always have a drop problem after never having one. Tyrell's drops doubled after coming here. Also, Ruggs, the most sure-handed catcher in the 1st Round of WR's (PFF), all of a sudden has a case of dropsies in the NFL...

The interception he caused hit both hands(hr3) and at least one of his drops went through a "perfect circle" y'all watched the games....neither of those were on Carr or his "spin" on the ball. LMFAO! And I think Riggs has good hands and is excellent at highpointing for a 5'11" guy. However,  the majority of his drops were rookie /concentration drops. Period,  and anyone who doesn't think so is either. 

Blind

A Carr hater

Not very football smart

Or simply entitled to their own opinion,  just as I am. 

BTW,  can't remember who it was,  but someone on here showed crabs drops 1rst yr in Baltimore, very close to identical.  Plz stop with the "spin" theory. Lol! Me and cough don't always agree on everything.  But we're both old school and realistic enough to live by that phrase "if it hits your hands , you should catch it" and that's how it should be......period.