Bears at Vikings - GDT

[abstract_thought]

10 hours ago, JAF-N72EX said:

Jackson was coming off making the 1st team all-pro with 1 pro bowl added to his resume in 3 years. He was going to get paid regardless, and you don't let talent like him go. Good safeties are hard to find.  If Pace had waited it would've cost substantially more. 

Minny made Harrison Smith the highest paid safety in the league at the time and he only had 2 pro bowls and ZERO AP's to his name after 4 years and his 10mAPY (11th in the league) is looking pretty damn good right now for a player of his caliber. 

That was in 2019 when he was extended, at the height of his value. In 2020 he was not an All-Pro and did not have elite turnover numbers. There was no need to extend him in 2019. Most players drafted in his class were extended in 2020.

I'm not sure why you've brought up Harrison Smith as some type of comparison. Eddie Jackson isn't in the same league as Smith. He's not playing like a top safety right now. Analyzing the game and looking at the stats shows that he's heavily regressed in coverage. He's allowing completions on over 71% of his targets for an average completion of 13.6 yards and a passer rating of 117.9. He also misses tackles far more often than Smith.

Edited December 22, 2020 by abstract_thought

[beardown3231]

44 minutes ago, abstract_thought said:

That was in 2019 when he was extended, at the height of his value. In 2020 he was not an All-Pro and did not have elite turnover numbers. There was no need to extend him in 2019. Most players drafted in his class were extended in 2020.

I'm not sure why you've brought up Harrison Smith as some type of comparison. Eddie Jackson isn't in the same league as Smith. He's not playing like a top safety right now. Analyzing the game and looking at the stats shows that he's heavily regressed in coverage. He's allowing completions on over 71% of his targets for an average completion of 13.6 yards and a passer rating of 117.9. He also misses tackles far more often than Smith.

In one thread he says:

The Pro Bowl is a joke and has been for 15+ years now

In this thread he cites Pro Bowls as a positive for a player and a reason to give out large extensions

😅

Edited December 22, 2020 by beardown3231
You beat me to it in the Pro Bowl thread

[dll2000]

17 hours ago, topwop1 said:

Yea well of course they'll need to have good depth and make sure they have capable players at each spot.

One thing is for sure though...the line has been playing a lot better ever since Coward was replaced by Bars and Mustipher took over at C and shifted Whitehair out to LG.

I know Bars played quite a bit at RT in college and also filled in for Massie when he went down a few weeks back so I believe he can make it work there with a little more seasoning.

I'm still all for drafting one or two new tackles in this upcoming draft. 

Whitehair was always a better guard than center.  They left him at center because Daniels sucked there.   Which was a shock to everyone because he was tremendous center at Iowa which is OL U and he is fast twitch which is perfect for center.

Bars has been preseason and practice hero since he got here.   Why he is a fan favorite - for people who go to camp.   Not sure why they always went with Coward over him.   Coward never outplayed him except maybe in double secret practices no one saw.

I really don't get the staff choices on personnel sometimes.   Like they don't even watch practice.

Word on street was Bars was a good prospect who got hurt at a bad time.   I think people think poorly of him because he was UDFA.

I thought Daniels was going to be all world.  He has been disappointing to me overall even though he has played really well at times.   I say trade him while his stock is high and risk that he becomes great somewhere else.  Guards are easier to find than Tackles.   Draft tackles or go get high round T retreads like Ifedi and move them to guard when you need one.  

I like Ifedi.   Can play G or T and is a team guy who plays mostly pretty well.   I think he should be a priority resigning.

Jettison Leno and Massie - they are dead weight.  

 

 

[Sugashane]

2 hours ago, dll2000 said:

Whitehair was always a better guard than center.  They left him at center because Daniels sucked there.   Which was a shock to everyone because he was tremendous center at Iowa which is OL U and he is fast twitch which is perfect for center.

Bars has been preseason and practice hero since he got here.   Why he is a fan favorite - for people who go to camp.   Not sure why they always went with Coward over him.   Coward never outplayed him except maybe in double secret practices no one saw.

I really don't get the staff choices on personnel sometimes.   Like they don't even watch practice.

Word on street was Bars was a good prospect who got hurt at a bad time.   I think people think poorly of him because he was UDFA.

I thought Daniels was going to be all world.  He has been disappointing to me overall even though he has played really well at times.   I say trade him while his stock is high and risk that he becomes great somewhere else.  Guards are easier to find than Tackles.   Draft tackles or go get high round T retreads like Ifedi and move them to guard when you need one.  

I like Ifedi.   Can play G or T and is a team guy who plays mostly pretty well.   I think he should be a priority resigning.

Jettison Leno and Massie - they are dead weight.  

 

 

Agree across the board. 

But if Daniels is traded then to me only Whitehair should be an entrenched starter. Maybe Ifedi, but I want everyone to fight for the starting role. Let Muphister, Bars, rookies and FAs all fight for their spot. No one has outright earned it imo.

[topwop1]

2 minutes ago, Sugashane said:

Agree across the board. 

But if Daniels is traded then to me only Whitehair should be an entrenched starter. Maybe Ifedi, but I want everyone to fight for the starting role. Let Muphister, Bars, rookies and FAs all fight for their spot. No one has outright earned it imo.

Ya ...I'm not trading Daniels.  At worst the Bears will have solid depth behind both Whitehair and Daniels if Bars isn't able to win a job elsewhere on the line.

Plus if Mustipher stays on as a starter at C it will help to have guys like Whitehair and Daniels there who have experience at the position in case of an injury.  

The interior of the line seems quite set.  Bears now just need to focus on upgrading the tackle postions. I predict that one of Leno or Massie will be a cap causality.

[Sugashane]

Just now, topwop1 said:

Ya ...I'm not trading Daniels.  At worst the Bears will have solid depth behind both Whitehair and Daniels if Bars isn't able to win a job elsewhere on the line.

Plus if Mustipher stays on as a starter at C it will help to have guys like Whitehair and Daniels there who have experience at the position in case of an injury.  

The interior of the line seems quite set.  Bears now just need to focus on upgrading the tackle postions. I predict that one of Leno or Massie will be a cap causality.

I'd explore it but I doubt anyone would give me the value I want for him. Outside of contactical barriers there is nobody here that is too valuable to trade. 

[JAF-N72EX]

11 hours ago, beardown3231 said:

You sound so stupid so often.

Oh the irony. 

 

8 hours ago, beardown3231 said:

In one thread he says:

The Pro Bowl is a joke and has been for 15+ years now

In this thread he cites Pro Bowls as a positive for a player and a reason to give out large extensions

😅

 

[removed]

Every time you post it becomes even more clear that you don't know a damn thing about football. You make this too easy .

[JAF-N72EX]

8 hours ago, abstract_thought said:

That was in 2019 when he was extended, at the height of his value. In 2020 he was not an All-Pro and did not have elite turnover numbers.

He was extended during the 2020 offseason AFTER the 2019 season. And I never said he was an all pro or had elite numbers in 2020 or anything even remotely close to that. In fact, I said the opposite. I really don't know what the hell you are talking about. Read it again maybe?

8 hours ago, abstract_thought said:

There was no need to extend him in 2019.

There was a need to extend him. He only had 1 year left on his rookie deal and you don't let talent like him walk or even give him a chance to think about it. You act as if it's unusual to extend players before their rookie deals are up. 

8 hours ago, abstract_thought said:

I'm not sure why you've brought up Harrison Smith as some type of comparison.

Because your missing my point. I'm comparing the contracts and what we each player's resume looked like leading up the the time they signed their extension, and to show that Jackson's contract will look like a steal in the future just Harrsion Smith's does now because that's how the NFL works. Contracts go up every year. 

[CBears019]

@JAF-N72EX and @beardown3231 both of you need to stop with the jabs at one another.  Keep it to football and not the individual poster.

[abstract_thought]

2 hours ago, JAF-N72EX said:

There was a need to extend him. He only had 1 year left on his rookie deal and you don't let talent like him walk or even give him a chance to think about it. You act as if it's unusual to extend players before their rookie deals are up. 

What is his talent? Why are we not seeing it this season? There were hints at regression in Jackson's pass defense in 2019. He could have played out his rookie deal and been extended mid-season just like Tarik Cohen.

2 hours ago, JAF-N72EX said:

Because your missing my point. I'm comparing the contracts and what we each player's resume looked like leading up the the time they signed their extension, and to show that Jackson's contract will look like a steal in the future just Harrsion Smith's does now because that's how the NFL works. Contracts go up every year. 

Harrison Smith's contract is a steal because he's a great player. If Jackson continues his current play, he will certainly not be a steal, regardless of the future contracts of other players at his position.

Edited December 23, 2020 by abstract_thought

[JAF-N72EX]

19 minutes ago, abstract_thought said:

What is his talent? Why are we not seeing it this season? There were hints at regression in Jackson's pass defense in 2019. 

There weren't any hints at regression in his pass defense in 2019. He was still VERY good in that department. Arguably even better than 2018. The only things he lacked were pass breakups and the INTs. But again he was playing the closer to the LOS so it's not really even a fair comparison. 

2018: 567 pass att,  39 targets,  14 completions allowed,  35.9% comp %,   2TD allowed,  9PBU,  6 INT,  1TFL,  1FF

2019: 596 pass att,  33 targets,  14 completions allowed,  42.4% comp %,   0TD allowed,  2PBU , 2 INT,  5TFL,  1FF

 

19 minutes ago, abstract_thought said:

He could have played out his rookie deal and been extended mid-season just like Tarik Cohen.

And he could've also said, no, I'm gonna take my chances in free agency to get more money. That's why guys like him get extensions early.

And you can't even compare Tarik to Jackson. Jackson plays every down in a very hard position to find. Cohen is not a every down player and plays a position that is arguably the easiest in the NFL to replace in any given draft. 

19 minutes ago, abstract_thought said:

Harrison Smith's contract is a steal because he's a great player. If Jackson continues his current play, he will certainly not be a steal, regardless of the future contracts of other players at his position.

I'm not worried about Jackson at all. Down year or not. He's shown what he is capable of. 

Edited December 23, 2020 by JAF-N72EX

[abstract_thought]

13 hours ago, JAF-N72EX said:

There weren't any hints at regression in his pass defense in 2019. He was still VERY good in that department. Arguably even better than 2018. The only things he lacked were pass breakups and the INTs. But again he was playing the closer to the LOS so it's not really even a fair comparison. 

2018: 567 pass att,  39 targets,  14 completions allowed,  35.9% comp %,   2TD allowed,  9PBU,  6 INT,  1TFL,  1FF

2019: 596 pass att,  33 targets,  14 completions allowed,  42.4% comp %,   0TD allowed,  2PBU , 2 INT,  5TFL,  1FF

So he allowed more completions, a higher passer rating, and made fewer plays on the ball, but he was somehow better as a pass defender? Those aren’t hints at regression?

13 hours ago, JAF-N72EX said:

And he could've also said, no, I'm gonna take my chances in free agency to get more money. That's why guys like him get extensions early.

There’s no reason to think he wouldn’t have accepted an offer a few months later. But more importantly, the Bears wouldn’t have even made the same offer. Jackson would not be offered elite S money during this season. And he wouldn’t have leverage to ask for it.

13 hours ago, JAF-N72EX said:

I'm not worried about Jackson at all. Down year or not. He's shown what he is capable of. 

In 1 season, in an extremely specific context, under a defensive coordinator known for coverage schemes and for making S look good.

Jackson’s not an elite tackler or run defender. The statistics show that his value comes from making plays in coverage. And he’s regressed in that area each year since 2018.

That’s not comparable to Smith, who is a better tackler and has shown more consistent performance and earned the money he makes. Which is why the comparison isn’t relevant. Smith earns his top S money. With Jackson, you’re hoping he will rekindle a level of play he’s not shown for 2 seasons.

Edited December 23, 2020 by abstract_thought

[beardown3231]

14 hours ago, JAF-N72EX said:

There weren't any hints at regression in his pass defense in 2019. He was still VERY good in that department. Arguably even better than 2018. The only things he lacked were pass breakups and the INTs. But again he was playing the closer to the LOS so it's not really even a fair comparison. 

2018: 567 pass att,  39 targets,  14 completions allowed,  35.9% comp %,   2TD allowed,  9PBU,  6 INT,  1TFL,  1FF

2019: 596 pass att,  33 targets,  14 completions allowed,  42.4% comp %,   0TD allowed,  2PBU , 2 INT,  5TFL,  1FF

 

And he could've also said, no, I'm gonna take my chances in free agency to get more money. That's why guys like him get extensions early.

And you can't even compare Tarik to Jackson. Jackson plays every down in a very hard position to find. Cohen is not a every down player and plays a position that is arguably the easiest in the NFL to replace in any given draft. 

I'm not worried about Jackson at all. Down year or not. He's shown what he is capable of. 

I.. uh.. alright thanks for proving my point. Take care

[JAF-N72EX]

13 hours ago, abstract_thought said:

So he allowed more completions, a higher passer rating, and made fewer plays on the ball, but he was somehow better as a pass defender? Those aren’t hints at regression?

 

His passer rating is lower with zero TDs allowed, less targets, less yards, less yards per target, and the same amount of completions on more pass plays. So yes, he was arguably better in pass defense in 2019.

But again, it's not even a fair comparison because of the differences in roles between years, and his numbers reflect this as well.

Average tackle depth;
2017 - 7.4 yards
2018 - 7.3 
2019 - 5.4
2020 - 8.6

His yards per target and tackle depth are significantly lower because he was playing closer to the LOS than in other years. 

He wasn't given the same opportunities to roam the field in 2019 in Pagano's system as he was in 2018 with Fangio and this year he has been all over the place. 

13 hours ago, abstract_thought said:

There’s no reason to think he wouldn’t have accepted an offer a few months later. But more importantly, the Bears wouldn’t have even made the same offer. Jackson would not be offered elite S money during this season. And he wouldn’t have leverage to ask for it.

 I'm not sure what your point is here. He would've still got the same extension based on his resume. He signed an extension in January. Waiting until March or April would've made zero difference.

The only difference there was is that Pace extended him BEFORE other safeties like Budda Baker got their extensions because if he had waited and they signed their contracts first then the price for Jackson would've been much higher. Which has been my point all along. 

13 hours ago, abstract_thought said:

In 1 season, in an extremely specific context, under a defensive coordinator known for coverage schemes and for making S look good.

2 seasons under 2 different coordinators. I'm not worried about 1 down year while playing all over the place. If he doesn't drop 3 INTs this year (which was his first ever since college) then you may have a different outlook. 

13 hours ago, abstract_thought said:

Jackson’s not an elite tackler or run defender.

This is very subjective. How many FS's do you consider to be an elite tacklers and run defenders? 

13 hours ago, abstract_thought said:

The statistics show that his value comes from making plays in coverage. And he’s regressed in that area each year since 2018.

It's only regressed in 1 year.  But whatever, you seem to be holding that hill so we'll just have to agree to disagree.

Again, I'm not worried about Jackson.  I'm starting to get more worried about Pagano and the front-7 (including Mack) than I am Jackson. 

13 hours ago, abstract_thought said:

hat’s not comparable to Smith,

Again, I'm not comparing them as players. Only contracts and what their resumes look like at the time they were both paid the "highest paid safety", and what kind of a steal Jackson's contract could look like in the future similar to Smiths.  I've already explained this.  I'm not sure what part of this you're not understanding.

[abstract_thought]

11 hours ago, JAF-N72EX said:

 

His passer rating is lower with zero TDs allowed, less targets, less yards, less yards per target, and the same amount of completions on more pass plays. So yes, he was arguably better in pass defense in 2019.

His passer rating allowed was notably higher in 2019. Check PFR's numbers:

Games		Pass Coverage												Pass Rush					Tackles
Year	Age	Tm	Pos	No.	G	GS	Int	Tgt	Cmp	Cmp%	Yds	Yds/Cmp	Yds/Tgt	TD	Rat	DADOT	Air	YAC	Bltz	Hrry	QBKD	Sk	Prss	Comb	MTkl	MTkl%
2018*+	25	CHI	SS	39	14	14	6	54	27	50.0%	311	11.5	5.8	2	40.5	11.5	138	173	1	0	0	1.0	1	51	11	17.7%
2019*	26	CHI	FS	39	16	16	2	43	23	53.5%	233	10.1	5.4	1	57.6	8.7	138	95	9	1	0	1.0	2	60	11	15.5%

 

11 hours ago, JAF-N72EX said:

But again, it's not even a fair comparison because of the differences in roles between years, and his numbers reflect this as well.

Average tackle depth;
2017 - 7.4 yards
2018 - 7.3 
2019 - 5.4
2020 - 8.6

His yards per target and tackle depth are significantly lower because he was playing closer to the LOS than in other years. 

He wasn't given the same opportunities to roam the field in 2019 in Pagano's system as he was in 2018 with Fangio and this year he has been all over the place. 

Which is exactly why I argued that his success was heavily context-specific. He has only succeeded in 1 role under 1 DC. He was not good as a box S. He has not been good this year as a FS. He was only good in Fangio's defense which relied on heavily pre-determined coverage looks that put him in better position to make plays on the ball.

11 hours ago, JAF-N72EX said:

I'm not sure what your point is here. He would've still got the same extension based on his resume. He signed an extension in January. Waiting until March or April would've made zero difference.

The only difference there was is that Pace extended him BEFORE other safeties like Budda Baker got their extensions because if he had waited and they signed their contracts first then the price for Jackson would've been much higher. Which has been my point all along. 

If you think that, after the way he's played this season, Jackson would even be considered in the same category as Baker or other elite S, or even that his poor play would result in the same extension, then we shouldn't even have this discussion. You're essentially saying that new results don't matter, that you've formed an opinion based on 2 years of play and any results to the contrary are due to something other than Jackson's ability.

What we should instead be doing is regressing the new results with the previous. I am not trying to say that Jackson is a bum player (though he is playing poorly this season). What I'm saying is that, after regressing this season's performance with the rest of his career, he does not fit into the category of elite S. He wouldn't be paid like an elite S after this season.

11 hours ago, JAF-N72EX said:

2 seasons under 2 different coordinators. I'm not worried about 1 down year while playing all over the place. If he doesn't drop 3 INTs this year (which was his first ever since college) then you may have a different outlook. 

Dropping a few INTs separates elite S from good ones. We're having a debate about Jackson's status as an elite player. Obviously changing the results would change the debate.

12 hours ago, JAF-N72EX said:

This is very subjective. How many FS's do you consider to be an elite tacklers and run defenders? 

I consider Jackson to be among the worst tacklers in the group of S paid elite money. Missed Tackle % shows that. It's not subjective.

12 hours ago, JAF-N72EX said:

Again, I'm not comparing them as players. Only contracts and what their resumes look like at the time they were both paid the "highest paid safety", and what kind of a steal Jackson's contract could look like in the future similar to Smiths.  I've already explained this.  I'm not sure what part of this you're not understanding.

Comparing contracts inevitably forces us to compare players. Contracts don't exist independent of the value a player brings to the team. Smith's contract is not seen as a value just because of the inflation of the salary cap. If he were playing like Jackson right now, his contract would be seen as a poor decision.