Want vs. should vs. will happen at QB 21

[Forge]

7 hours ago, MKnight82 said:

Can someone explain the Stafford interest?  I seriously do not get it.  He will be 33 years old by next season.  He's made the Pro Bowl once in his career.  Once.  And that was in 2014.  In 12 seasons he's made the playoffs only 3 times, and only once since Calvin Johnson retired.  He's never won a playoff game.  In his last 3 seasons he hasn't eclipsed 4,100 passing yards.  He will cost us a draft pick and be expensive on our cap.  Acquiring him would be completely idiotic in my opinion.  

I think Stafford could be awesome in the right system. Talent doesn't bother me...I think it's legit, I think he just cut stuck on the lions. 

That being said, the age and the injuries are a concern at this point. He's been getting seriously banged up

[TKellion]

Want,think we should and have no doubt we will roll with the same 4 QBs that are already on the roster.After Smith goes down in the second game we end up with a top 3 pick rolling Allen,Heiniken and Montez out there for the rest of the season.

[Woz]

3 hours ago, MKnight82 said:

Yes

Wait, my memory worked? Will wonders never cease!

[Woz]

2 hours ago, bigdog44 said:

Shooting from the hip here. Guessing the Jets asking price will be way too high and no one bites. They go ahead and draft a quarterback which obviously shows their hand, leaving Ron/Kyle/whoever to grab him for a  3rd and a 5th. Basically the Trent Williams deal in reverse. I doubt the Jets outright release him, but it would be really nice not to have to give anything up. 

Im not gaga over Darnold at all, but living in NY I’ve seen flashes. He’s still only 24, can move a bit, and at the least is a threat to get the ball downfield. 

If they're smart, they strike quickly with a 2021 3rd plus a 2022 3rd that upgrades based on play. Because they aren't getting that once they draft Fields-or-whomever.

Problem is they don't have a head coach. Maybe that guy wants Darnold.

[Woz]

56 minutes ago, Forge said:

I think Stafford could be awesome in the right system. Talent doesn't bother me...I think it's legit, I think he just cut stuck on the lions. 

That being said, the age and the injuries are a concern at this point. He's been getting seriously banged up

That and if the asking price requires a 1st, you are giving up 4 years of guaranteed cheap player (plus a 5th year option) for two years of a guy approaching the end of his career at market rate.

[Forge]

2 minutes ago, Woz said:

That and if the asking price requires a 1st, you are giving up 4 years of guaranteed cheap player (plus a 5th year option) for two years of a guy approaching the end of his career at market rate.

As a niners fan, I'm hoping two seconds would get it done. For us, I'll make that deal in a heartbeat (especially if I can trade Jimmy for third or fourth to like New England). 

I'm also hoping saleh gets the lions job so that's an easier in lol

 

[Woz]

3 minutes ago, Forge said:

As a niners fan, I'm hoping two seconds would get it done. For us, I'll make that deal in a heartbeat (especially if I can trade Jimmy for third or fourth to like New England). 

I'm also hoping saleh gets the lions job so that's an easier in lol

 

Which makes some sense because you guys are a QB away from competing. Just don't see it making as much sense for Washington.

[aceinthehouse]

Want= Trevor Lawrence (dude is gonna be special)

Should= Mathew Stafford (I believe Alex retires at the end of the Season & a vet like Stafford with his quick release would make us playoff contenders immediately...again 😎)

Will= We will draft QB KJ Costello (Miss. ST.) in the 2nd Rd, to be our next Franchise QB for Rivera to groom.

 

[ovfd55]

Want=Alex Smith + a 2nd round QB of Trask/Jones type,Alex Retires trade for a Vet QB like Stafford if price is right
Should=Alex if he wants back,Add a Vet to be the stater if he retires
Will=Alex Retires we prob sign Newton and have him and Allen Compete and draft a QB at some point in draft depending on where they fall.

For those asking whats the appeal of Stafford
We was 5-1 with Alex starting this year 1-9 when someone else started
Stafford is clearly better then Alex at this stage to me
Also think you could get Marvin Jones Jr pretty cheap in FA under 8 mil a year
Stafford also already has played with Logan Thomas and JD Mikissic 

It would all depend on trade price to me though don't completley sell the future
But I think worse case if Stafford no the Answer you out from cap and was somewhat competitive for 2 years and we're free and clear of him,best case is we competitive in NFC for awhile
Where Drafting a QB in first worse case is we get another Haskins RG3 spot were 2 years later you looking for a qb again and set back the franchise with 2 losing seasons again,Best case is you find a franchise QB but don't think that's the most likely outcome when best QB we prob could get is 4th or 5th best one in the draft.

I know winning the sham of a game vs Eagles shouldn't matter in long term of but the difference between the 10th and 19th pick is huge when needing a QB it went from possible to trading up some and grabbing Fields or Wilson if they slip past 4 to Trey Lance being the best one we legit have a shot at and while I like him he isn't ready yet unless he took major steps this off year and if Alex Retire which I'm 95% sure he will,we won't have a QB on roster that can play well enough to keep us from playing him to early and leading to failure the same way it  did when Haskins got thrown in not ready.

Edited January 5, 2021 by ovfd55

[RSkinGM]

23 hours ago, MKnight82 said:

Can someone explain the Stafford interest?  I seriously do not get it.  He will be 33 years old by next season.  He's made the Pro Bowl once in his career.  Once.  And that was in 2014.  In 12 seasons he's made the playoffs only 3 times, and only once since Calvin Johnson retired.  He's never won a playoff game.  In his last 3 seasons he hasn't eclipsed 4,100 passing yards.  He will cost us a draft pick and be expensive on our cap.  Acquiring him would be completely idiotic in my opinion.  

It's because when he plays us - He looks like a Hall of Famer ! He's 4-0 with 8 TDs an 2 interceptions

Edited January 5, 2021 by RSkinGM

[turtle28]

13 hours ago, aceinthehouse said:

Want= Trevor Lawrence (dude is gonna be special)

Should= Mathew Stafford (I believe Alex retires at the end of the Season & a vet like Stafford with his quick release would make us playoff contenders immediately...again 😎)

Will= We will draft QB KJ Costello (Miss. ST.) in the 2nd Rd, to be our next Franchise QB for Rivera to groom.

 

We need a QB to make us a Playoff Contender immediately? Well what are we doing on Saturday night?

Not trying to be a *ick, just saying bro. 😉

Costello isn’t very good. I think he’ll lucky to be drafted TBH, if he is I think at best he goes in round 5 but I don’t even see that.

If we’re taking a 2nd round QB we’re looking at Mac Jones or Kyle Trask who may fall to us there.

Edited January 5, 2021 by turtle28

[turtle28]

@ovfd55 Awesome take! I love you’re post!

[e16bball]

On 1/4/2021 at 5:13 PM, MKnight82 said:

Can someone explain the Stafford interest?  I seriously do not get it.  He will be 33 years old by next season.  He's made the Pro Bowl once in his career.  Once.  And that was in 2014.  In 12 seasons he's made the playoffs only 3 times, and only once since Calvin Johnson retired.  He's never won a playoff game.  In his last 3 seasons he hasn't eclipsed 4,100 passing yards.  He will cost us a draft pick and be expensive on our cap.  Acquiring him would be completely idiotic in my opinion.  

Long post coming. Apologies in advance, I’m kinda working through some things in my own head with this post.

I think it comes down to a recalibration of where we stand in terms of ability to compete quickly. I’ve always said that it’s silly to treat the NFL like other leagues, where you need a 5-year plan to take your team from the bottom lf the league to the top, but even I thought this was a 3-year job, with the window of competition opening in 2022. 

What I didn’t expect was this defense coming together so quickly. Chase Young was a home run obviously, but the step forward from Sweat has been huge and they absolutely nailed it with Fuller and Darby. They were already the #3 defense in the league this season per DVOA. That was...unexpected. And it kinda changes the timeline for when we could compete, because although the defense still has a couple glaring holes, it’s clearly good enough to compete alongside the best defenses in the league.

Which puts us in a quandary. I’m going to double up on old farmer sayings here: we can’t let this defense wither on the vine, we need to make hay while the sun is shining. Things in the NFL don’t last forever, and we can’t fall into the trap of thinking this defense will be intact for years on end. Injuries will inevitably take a toll (we’ve been extremely lucky with them on defense this season), and the salary cap/free agency are always a ticking time bomb for any good defensive unit. Kerrigan is absolutely gone after this season, and it may be tough for them to pay Darby if he hits the market as well. We’ve got one more year of Jonathan Allen before he hits UFA, two more years of Daron Payne, Matt Ioannidis, and Cole Holcomb, and three more years of Montez Sweat, Kam Curl, and Kendall Fuller. Of course we’ll be able to keep some of those guys, but some of them are gone. Especially because they’ll have to be setting aside room for the Chase Young extension, which already looks like it might be a mega-mega-deal. 

That’s a long way of saying that we probably don’t have as much time as we think. That defense is good now — but they’re saddled with an offense that ranked DEAD LAST in the league per DVOA. Of course we’d like to take the “methodical build-up” approach to the offense (like we did with the defense to a large degree, the DL at least). But every year that the offense only improves marginally, and still isn’t ready to compete with other top teams, is a year we are wasting this talented defense.

The problem is compounded by the fact that the biggest hole on the offense is the most important position — and the hardest to fill. We have a number of needs on the offense that we can meet through conventional means: probably two WRs, another TE, maybe a better power back, and I think we’d really benefit from an elite level player on the left side of the line. We can address those needs in FA and the draft, and we could probably fill a number of those spots very quickly. I don’t see any reason why we couldn’t acquire contributors for at least 3 of those holes in the upcoming offseason, without doing anything crazy at all. 

But none of that really matters if we’re rolling Kyle Allen and Taylor Heinicke out there at QB. I know, I know, “QBs don’t win games, teams win games, blah blah blah” — but the truth is, there’s a ceiling on your team if the QB play isn’t at least average. The 5 worst QB situations in the playoffs are us, an aging HOFer (Rivers), and three recent top two picks (Trubisky, Goff, Mayfield). And before the playoffs expanded this year, Trubisky and Mayfield would have been sitting at home too — in fact, all four of those “worst playoff QBs” are sitting in seeds 6 and 7. You can’t compete at the highest level if your QB doesn’t belong on the field with all these stars. 

I’m a big Alex Smith fan, and if we had the 33-year-old pre-injury Alex, we might be in a different position. But we don’t, and while I admire the man tremendously, I think it’s clear to everyone watching that he’s so limited now that we can’t reasonably expect to consistently compete with good teams with him under center. I don’t know if we could really cut the guy if he wants to come back and play next season — but I think we’ll all have to hope that he decides he’s accomplished what he set out to do and and is ready to hang it up. 

Assuming that does happen, it leaves us with a big void at that position. Can you go into a season with a great defense and a spruced up offense — and Kyle Allen as your starting QB? I don’t think so. You’d be wasting all the talent on both sides of the ball. Of course we’d love to draft a young star, but the downside of winning is that you move yourself out of position to draft such a player. At 19, I think we’re drafting too low to even trade up for any of the top 3 options, so we’d be choosing between the guys who are generally considered QB4-QB6 in this draft. An FCS kid with one year as a starter but a high ceiling, and two guys from big programs who put up monster numbers (with monster teammates) for one season. None of these are particularly appealing options, and I’ve already voiced many times the danger in taking QBs that the rest of league didn’t want. Moreover, any drafted QB is going to take some time to develop. Do we have 2-3 years to wait for a kid to (perhaps) blossom into a star? Before the season, I might have said yes. But as I said, this defense has shifted the timetable.

If we’re not thrilled with the draft options, and we’re not willing to go with what we have in-house — both of which I think are extremely reasonable conclusions — then that really only leaves somehow acquiring a veteran QB who we can plug and play now. Free agency consists of Dak Prescott (who I believe will be franchised again) and then a rogue’s gallery of different types of not-very-good QBs, led by the aforementioned Philip Rivers and Mitchell Trubisky. One name on that list that genuinely scares me is Cam Newton, who was linked to us by Adam Schefter this very morning.

Then there are trade options. Everyone hates trading for veteran players, especially when it involves very valuable picks. But this is where the most “ready to be good now” talent is available. Whether it’s Matthew Stafford, Matt Ryan, Carson Wentz, or even Jimmy Garoppolo, there are a lot of experienced QBs ranging from “decent” to “still pretty darn good” that are rumored to be available on the trade market. Of those guys, I think Stafford has emerged as a preferred target because he’s better than Garoppolo and Wentz, younger than Ryan, relatively affordable, and is actually tradeable (to us), unlike Ryan for contract reasons and Wentz for division reasons.

I don’t know that anyone is jumping up and down at the idea of Stafford. But he’s a bona fide franchise QB who may be on the block, would provide a massive upgrade on what we’ve had, and won’t break the bank. Coupled with a handful of additions to the skill positions, he’d put the offense in a position where it could at least offer a little firepower and give us a chance to consistently play with good teams. I understand your concerns, and I think they’re valid. Personally, I might be more inclined to see if Gruden is looking to offload Derek Carr. But I don’t see a lot of other great routes to a good QB at the moment, aside from getting the chance to sign Prescott (for much more money) or closing our eyes and hoping for a miracle in the draft. Aside from possibly a one-season Smith/Lance combo — which would still involve basically punting next season — I just don’t see many avenues that I like better than trading for a veteran.

[e16bball]

TL;DR

1. The defense is good enough to win now

2. Windows don’t stay open that long for great defenses

3. The offense is a huge problem and will hold us back from competing with said defense

4. QB is by far the biggest hole on the offense, and the hardest to fill

5. The in-house options are not appealing

6. The draft options are not appealing

7. Several good QBs may be available via trade

8. Stafford seems like potentially the best combination of availability, contract, age, and playing ability

9. I would also consider Derek Carr or a Smith/Lance combo

[MKnight82]

@e16bball let's say Matthew Stafford costs you a 2nd round pick.  Would you prefer Matthew Stafford at $20+ mil per year or a rookie QB taken in the 2nd round on a 4 year cheap deal?  My objection is people saying we should TRADE for Stafford.  That is doubling down the expense, we have to pay a draft pick plus a high cap amount.  If Stafford is cut and they want to bring him in, fine. But spending a draft pick on him seems like a serious overpay of resources for quite honestly a guy who's never done anything of note in the NFL.