I want QB Mathew Stafford here, but how much would it cost to get him?

[Thaiphoon]

19 hours ago, LoganF89 said:

If it came down to making playoffs or picking 9 picks higher then I’m making playoffs. I’m not gonna root for this team to lose if we can get playoff experience.  Just look at what happened to Pederson after that philly game....

Records under Snyder (including first year even though the team was already set)

10-6 (won division - lost first playoff game)

8-8

8-8

7-9

5-11

6-10

10-6 (won division - lost first playoff game)

5-11

9-7 (won division - lost first playoff game)

8-8

4-12

6-10

5-11

10-6 (won division - lost first playoff game)

3-13

4-12

9-7 (won division - lost first playoff game)

8-7-1

7-9

7-9

3-13

7-9 (won division - lost first playoff game)

Yeah. The best we've been able to do with "playoff experience" is go 8-8 for two seasons afterward. And that was with a roster that was mostly built before Snyder started dismantling it.

Please don't misunderstand. While I agree that playoff experience is important. It's not going to amount to squat if all you do is find lightning in a bottle every few years. Which has been the pattern under Snyder. What does help future success is identifying the correct players for your team...having elite players at the key positions...with a coaching staff that can make good use of those players.

Notice that getting those elite players is the key here. This was the wrong year to go 1st in the division. We now have a first place schedule next year and our offensive weaknesses are still there (along with the weak LB corps). 

So while I cheer for them to score, do well and win games, I was also just fine with them evaluating QBs in the season and providing themselves a better position for the long term.

[e16bball]

21 hours ago, LoganF89 said:

And how many Super Bowl wins as a starter, does your side have? 1 and that was last years 

Fair statement. Decent chance it’s about to be two, but we’ll see on that one. 

Your point got me thinking, though...I’ve generally used a 15-year range to increase the sample size, but the truth is that including that period from 2006-2012 may actually still be overstating the likelihood of grabbing a franchise QB after the first dozen picks. Things have been moving more and more towards prospects with elite upside going extremely early, and the league has been missing fewer and fewer of those guys.

So if we just take the last 8 drafts, out of the 77 QBs drafted from pick 13 and later, you have Dak Prescott, Lamar Jackson, Derek Carr, Teddy Bridgewater, and Jimmy Garoppolo. That means in 8 years, you’ve got 2 stars, a decent starter, and 2 below-average starters. And that’s pretty much it. Numbers 6-8 in terms of AV are Jacoby Brissett, Gardner Minshew, and Geno Smith. 

In other words, what we’re talking about here is getting a starting QB of any quality once every couple years or so. We’re talking about getting a star QB, the kind good enough to make you a contender for a Super Bowl maybe 2-3 times in a decade’s worth of picks. 

Despite the long odds, I’m not necessarily dead set against using such picks on a QB because of the massive payoff if you do actually miraculously hit. But you just can’t make any plans around it. You’re almost certainly not drafting an immediate starter. You’re almost certainly not even drafting a guy you can develop into a starter. What you’re doing is taking a huge flier and hoping to be the very rare team that gets very lucky. You have to treat it as such, not as a plan.

Edited February 4, 2021 by e16bball

[MKnight82]

1 hour ago, Thaiphoon said:

Please don't misunderstand. While I agree that playoff experience is important. It's not going to amount to squat if all you do is find lightning in a bottle every few years. Which has been the pattern under Snyder. What does help future success is identifying the correct players for your team...having elite players at the key positions...with a coaching staff that can make good use of those players.

The difference with those teams was that they were built through trades and free agency.  We've built this core from the ground up through the draft.  This team is different than the ones we've had before.

[turtle28]

7 hours ago, MKnight82 said:

The difference with those teams was that they were built through trades and free agency.  We've built this core from the ground up through the draft.  This team is different than the ones we've had before.

Mostly true, until you look at our QB who was trade for - Alex Smith, our best starting LT & LG were FAs, our TE was a FA, two of our starting LBs are FAs and one of our starting CBs was a FA.

Of those 7 players, 4 of them may not be back next year and all of them may not be starters even if they are back.

[MikeT14]

12 hours ago, turtle28 said:

Mostly true, until you look at our QB who was trade for - Alex Smith, our best starting LT & LG were FAs, our TE was a FA, two of our starting LBs are FAs and one of our starting CBs was a FA.

Of those 7 players, 4 of them may not be back next year and all of them may not be starters even if they are back.

Would you call them our core players? I wouldn't. All of those players you mentioned aren't the ones we are building around to anchor this team. That's not why they were signed. 

[lavar703]

Basically, we’re screwed at the most important position on the field without anyway of really fixing it lol

[offbyone]

1 hour ago, lavar703 said:

Basically, we’re screwed at the most important position on the field without anyway of really fixing it lol

Yet it happens to be a year where we are seeing possibly the biggest game of QB musical chairs I have ever seen.  The opportunity to fix this problem is there.

[lavar703]

34 minutes ago, offbyone said:

Yet it happens to be a year where we are seeing possibly the biggest game of QB musical chairs I have ever seen.  The opportunity to fix this problem is there.

Fix it how though? I mean, right now we’re staring Mac Jones in the face and he might not even make it to our pick. If they’re being truthful about Smith, Heinecke and Allen as possible 10-game winners then we have a big problem. They can’t lose next year. Making the playoffs created unrealistic expectations and sped up the rebuild immensely. They have to solve the problem now. 

[offbyone]

3 hours ago, lavar703 said:

Fix it how though? I mean, right now we’re staring Mac Jones in the face and he might not even make it to our pick. If they’re being truthful about Smith, Heinecke and Allen as possible 10-game winners then we have a big problem. They can’t lose next year. Making the playoffs created unrealistic expectations and sped up the rebuild immensely. They have to solve the problem now. 

Not in the draft.   When I say qb musical chairs I am referring to all the qbs in play right now.  Already we saw 2 qbs move locations.  There will be at least 4 more.

They obviously recognize the problem or we wouldn't have tried to trade for Stafford.  

[lavar703]

48 minutes ago, offbyone said:

Not in the draft.   When I say qb musical chairs I am referring to all the qbs in play right now.  Already we saw 2 qbs move locations.  There will be at least 4 more.

They obviously recognize the problem or we wouldn't have tried to trade for Stafford.  

They recognized the problem at receiver last year, swung hard for Amari Cooper and missed. After that they just let the position stay an issue and it was a big issue all year long. I have a feeling they’re going to do the same thing again. 

[offbyone]

1 hour ago, lavar703 said:

They recognized the problem at receiver last year, swung hard for Amari Cooper and missed. After that they just let the position stay an issue and it was a big issue all year long. I have a feeling they’re going to do the same thing again. 

True enough.  Clearly Rivera draws a line with how much he will pay and won't cross it.  That can be good and bad.  I am certainly glad they didn't pay more than a 1st and 3rd for Stafford.

And while I think we should have gone for Cooper, this FA wide receiver class is better and bigger so likely cheaper.

[lavar703]

1 hour ago, offbyone said:

True enough.  Clearly Rivera draws a line with how much he will pay and won't cross it.  That can be good and bad.  I am certainly glad they didn't pay more than a 1st and 3rd for Stafford.

And while I think we should have gone for Cooper, this FA wide receiver class is better and bigger so likely cheaper.

I’m happy they stood their ground on Stafford. I like him but think he’s extremely overrated. I won’t be happy at all going into the season with Smith, Allen and Heinecke. I will consider it a monumental failure if they do so. I do think we’d win more games with Smith as the starter for a full season but highly doubt he can last and on top of it we’d just be delaying the inevitable. This whole situation sucks. 

[naptownskinsfan]

9 hours ago, lavar703 said:

Fix it how though? I mean, right now we’re staring Mac Jones in the face and he might not even make it to our pick. If they’re being truthful about Smith, Heinecke and Allen as possible 10-game winners then we have a big problem. They can’t lose next year. Making the playoffs created unrealistic expectations and sped up the rebuild immensely. They have to solve the problem now. 

Good thing we have an owner who is desperate for a QB.  We know how this ends.  

[Thaiphoon]

22 hours ago, offbyone said:

Yet it happens to be a year where we are seeing possibly the biggest game of QB musical chairs I have ever seen.  The opportunity to fix this problem is there.

Opportunity? Yes.

Ammunition to get those trades or draft the player we need without crippling this team's ability to get elite talent the next 2-3 drafts? Not so much.