3rd Overall Pick - Trey Lance vs Justin Fields (with bonus third poll option)

[Dr A W Niloc]

10 minutes ago, Forge said:

Absolutely nothing

And that is why the overwhelming consensus favoring Mac Jones surprises so many people.

[Forge]

5 minutes ago, Dr A W Niloc said:

And that is why the overwhelming consensus favoring Mac Jones surprises so many people.

No, it's because statistics without any sort of context is damn near meaningless, not to mention completely discounting any actual skill transition. If all you needed were stats, colt brennan would have been a star

[big9erfan]

41 minutes ago, Dr A W Niloc said:

Excellent question!

Jones is 1st in completion percentage, Fields 3rd.  Jones is 1st in deep yards, Fields 20th.  Jones is 2nd in screen yardage, Fields a whopping 111st. 

What does that tell you?

Fields is first of you eliminate balls thrown behind the line of scrimmage which are not a staple of nfl offenses. Those other stays are meaningless, unless you are agreeing that Jones padded his stats by throwing a lot of super easy passes to the best receivers in college football who had the best line in college blocking for them. 

Edited April 22, 2021 by big9erfan

[Forge]

1 minute ago, big9erfan said:

Fields is first of you eliminate balls thrown behind the line of scrimmage which are not a staple of nfl offenses.

Let's not forget that Jones played more games than both fields and lawrence and we are using bulk stats

[big9erfan]

"I don't think there's any way in hell they're taking Mac Jones," one unnamed NFL executive told Albert Breer of Sports Illustrated. "He's not good enough."

"The Shanahan offense has worked with a multitude of types of quarterbacks," the executive added. "But it really flourished when it had a big athlete with a big arm like John Elway running it. I just think you're moving up for the special athlete."

Edited April 22, 2021 by big9erfan

[Dr A W Niloc]

These particular statistics are as raw as data can get.  They speak for themselves, with no "context" beyond their value.  Nor did they require careful selection.  They are two of the criteria PFF uses to evaluate QBs (and the others don't exactly flatter Fields relative to Jones either).

So, when you see a QB with a high completion percentage, an ADoT of 46th (if that helps), and comparatively little yardage what is your immediate inference? 

It isn't a trick question.

[49erurtaza]

7 minutes ago, big9erfan said:

"I don't think there's any way in hell they're taking Mac Jones," one unnamed NFL executive told Albert Breer of Sports Illustrated. "He's not good enough."

"The Shanahan offense has worked with a multitude of types of quarterbacks," the executive added. "But it really flourished when it had a big athlete with a big arm like John Elway running it. I just think you're moving up for the special athlete."

Lance Lance Lance! 

[49erurtaza]

Just now, Dr A W Niloc said:

These particular statistics are as raw as data can get.  They speak for themselves, with no "context" beyond their value.  Nor did they require careful selection.  They are two of the criteria PFF uses to evaluate QBs (and the others don't exactly flatter Fields relative to Jones either).

So, when you see a QB with a high completion percentage, an ADoT of 46th (if that helps), and comparatively little yardage what is your immediate inference? 

It isn't a trick question.

End of the day your drafting Mac because of his floor not his ceiling. I will never be ok with that with what we gave up. Mac's a late first round prospect in a normal year. 

[Forge]

17 minutes ago, Dr A W Niloc said:

These particular statistics are as raw as data can get.  They speak for themselves, with no "context" beyond their value.  Nor did they require careful selection.  They are two of the criteria PFF uses to evaluate QBs (and the others don't exactly flatter Fields relative to Jones either).

So, when you see a QB with a high completion percentage, an ADoT of 46th (if that helps), and comparatively little yardage what is your immediate inference? 

It isn't a trick question.

If these are all that matters, why do you think pff has fields rated so much higher than Mac on their big board for the draft? Why is Mac only their fifth rated QB? 

 

[big9erfan]

3 hours ago, Dr A W Niloc said:

And that is why the overwhelming consensus favoring Mac Jones surprises so many people.

Exactly what consensus are you talking about? Virtually everyone that rates qbs has Jones rated fifth even though they know the stats you keep quoting. Is that the consensus you mean? 

[Dr A W Niloc]

3 minutes ago, big9erfan said:

Exactly what consensus are you talking about? Virtually everyone that rates qbs has Jones rated fifth even though they know the stats you keep quoting. Is that the consensus you mean? 

Virtually every mock has Jones going at #3.  Even on NFL.com!

Draft position isn't the same thing as overall ranking.

[Dr A W Niloc]

3 hours ago, 49erurtaza said:

Mac's a late first round prospect in a normal year. 

That would, at best, depend on when San Francisco and New England are drafting.

[big9erfan]

3 hours ago, 49erurtaza said:

End of the day your drafting Mac because of his floor not his ceiling. I will never be ok with that with what we gave up. Mac's a late first round prospect in a normal year. 

Yeah. There is too much talk about where guys are right now in their careers. They've come from different programs, with different schemes, with different types and amounts of coaching and different supporting casts. What the team has to do is determine each guy's ceiling and just as importantly each guy's floor in case they don't hit their potential ceiling. Even then they are not done because they need to weight potential ceiling and potential floor to determine how they value each of those. 

Not that any QB is this,  but would you prefer a guy who could possibly be a league MVP but could also possibly be a bad backup, or a guy who might have an outside chance to be a top 10 qb but not likely to fail as a starter 

Edited April 22, 2021 by big9erfan

[N4L]

2 minutes ago, Dr A W Niloc said:

That would, at best, depend on when San Francisco and New England are drafting.

Are you a niners fan? 

What are you trying to accomplish here? You never seem to make a coherent point 

[big9erfan]

4 minutes ago, Dr A W Niloc said:

Virtually every mock has Jones going at #3.  Even on NFL.com!

Draft position isn't the same thing as overall ranking.

Bingo. You've got the point.  People are speculating about us taking a qb that almost no one in the business of evaluating qbs thinks is better than 5th