2021 NFL Draft

[Epyon]

3 hours ago, Superman(DH23) said:

Going up to 4 to get Fields would be my ideal situation.  I look at Fields a lot like what I looked at Josh Allen 3 years ago.  He is a big lump of uberly talented clay.  He has traits you cant teach.  And the kicker is he is better coming out than Josh Allen was.  Allen was the most physically gifted QB I have ever evaluated, Fields is right behind him, but he is so much better as a passer right now, than Allen was in 2018.  I was extremely high on Allen, thought the Browns should have drafted him #1.  I think SF and NYJ will end up regretting passing on Fields in 3 years.  I would also be ok going up for Lance, but not to #4.  Somewhere around pick #12 would be a good spot, if they got him at #20 that's where his value is, but it looks like GMs are really going to be stupid this year and pass up on better players for QBs.  Lance would be a good get to sit and learn for a year, maybe 2, then unleash him at 21 and watch the natural talent flourish.  Trading up for Jones would be laughable.  Picking Jones at 20 would be ewww

"there was one team who has broken down all of Justin Fields’ passes in 2020. They said that just seven times, he looked off the primary target. The other 200+ passes he threw to his primary target.”

https://touchdownwire.usatoday.com/2021/03/30/justin-fields-2021-nfl-draft-processing-speed/

 

Combined with the stuff I previously posted about how he gets dunked on by blitzes and rolling coverages, and his average time to throw being among the slowest in the class, I have a ton of time getting behind him as a prospect. 

He is at least, good at PRE SNAP coverages, as apparently almost the entirety of the OhSt offense was option routes based on coverage. The problem is he simply doesn't adjust post snap when things aren't going to "plan"

[soulman]

5 hours ago, Sugashane said:

True, but I'm looking past Nagy, which we should already be doing imo. Backing into the playoffs was just bad luck. Lower draft stock just to be embarrassed and to be the bottom of the barrel in a group of real teams. 

Maybe I'm overly pessimistic of Nagy, but I feel his ego makes him think he was never the problem for our offense. So he may think he is the one who makes Fields into a franchise QB. 

 

I understand but then wouldn't we once again be spending a top 5 draft pick on a QB for yet another HC?  We just sent the last guy we did that with off packing for Buffalo.  HC like to pick their own QB and if we keep doing what we did with Mitch we also keep frustrating that methodology and risk another bad match between a QB and his HC.

Personally I'm not looking past Nagy and Pace.  I know GMcC does not like turnover in the front off or the coaching staff.  It's both costly and it's even more embarrassing to him than losing and these two have made the playoff two out of the last three years so no matter how mediocre they've been he can still hang his hat on that vs say Fox.

If GMcC has truly blessed a massive trade up to #4 then he's either agreed to give the "Collaborators" more time to make it all work or they have a trade scenario for Wilson in the works.  Pete Carroll refuses to trade Wilson without a starting QB in exchange so here's your QB.  A rookie #4 overall pick and we take Wilson and his contract away.

That gives Schneider a rookie QB on a far cheaper 4 year deal and all kinds of cap space to add talent around him on both offense and defense he's not been able to do because of Wilson's deal.  We get a vet QB whose a proven winner and can compete for a SB before the defense ages any more and we lose that advantage.  It could work.

As for Nagy and his offense I see more stubbornness than ego.  If he was that egocentric he wouldn't surround himself with the kind of talent he's hired to coach with him.  Same with play calling.  I think he simply believes his schemes will work and all he needs is the right QB behind center running his show his way.  Mitch wasn't that guy.

Even if we draft a rookie to keep we're at least another year away from him being ready to take over and all of those restructured deals that kicked the cap can down the road keep mounting.  I believe GMcC want at least a SB appearance for Ginny before she dies and she's now 98.  How much longer does she have?  Wilson is win now mode.

Just thinkin' out loud brother.

[soulman]

49 minutes ago, Heinz D. said:

Seattle won't ever accept a player-for-player trade--Fields for Wilson. It ain't happening. 

You and I don't know that so what you're saying is only an opinion.  All of this is pure speculation but what I'm positing is whether or not it's possible and I think it is.

Go back and look at my initial post.  Fields for Wilson is the main course.  Is it possible other picks and/or players might be swapped too?  Sure.  But not the kind of booty you listed.  We're not trading multiple firsts to trade up then trading even more high picks to Seattle along with Fields for Wilson.  We wouldn't even have those picks to trade.

I believe you're missing two key points.

1) Whether post June 1st or next offseason Wilson will be traded.  He's pissed in his own pool now with his list of teams and hints he'd like to leave.  So Schneider's job is to max out what he can get for him and satisfy Carroll's need for a replacement.

2) Wilson's contract hamstrings Schneider from doing what Wilson wants which is to bring in more talent.  Fields will cost over 4 years what Wilson makes in one year so letting Wilson go opens up cap space to rebuild around Fields plus he's much younger.

All of my theorizing stems from one rumor that seems to have gained traction and that is why has GMcC suddenly changed his mind about trading up to #4 overall for a QB when he would not agree to it before?  He's was OK with big deals for Watson or Wilson but not a rookie.  So if that rumor is accurate what changed his mind.  Think on that.

[Heinz D.]

2 hours ago, soulman said:

You and I don't know that so what you're saying is only an opinion.  All of this is pure speculation but what I'm positing is whether or not it's possible and I think it is.

Yeah...it's an opinion. But I think most folks would agree that a team is not trading a HOF quarterback for a rookie, in an essentially straight up deal. 

2 hours ago, soulman said:

Go back and look at my initial post.  Fields for Wilson is the main course.  Is it possible other picks and/or players might be swapped too?  Sure.  But not the kind of booty you listed.  We're not trading multiple firsts to trade up then trading even more high picks to Seattle along with Fields for Wilson.  We wouldn't even have those picks to trade.

It could be done--they could put future picks out there. But would it be done? No. Seattle wouldn't accept it, in all likelihood. And it would be dumb of the Bears to do it. Yet again, as I said--the Bears could potentially be looking at being a true contender four years down the road, when Wilson will be thirty-six. 

2 hours ago, soulman said:

1) Whether post June 1st or next offseason Wilson will be traded.  He's pissed in his own pool now with his list of teams and hints he'd like to leave.  So Schneider's job is to max out what he can get for him and satisfy Carroll's need for a replacement.

So, me saying a basic one-for-one trade of Fields for Wilson won't happen is an "opinion"...but that statement is a FACT? Really?

What if Carroll just retires? 

2 hours ago, soulman said:

2) Wilson's contract hamstrings Schneider from doing what Wilson wants which is to bring in more talent.  Fields will cost over 4 years what Wilson makes in one year so letting Wilson go opens up cap space to rebuild around Fields plus he's much younger.

Wilson's problem is that he thinks management is not handling the team correctly, and he's right. And if your point about the size of his contract is actually correct--how does that not also apply to the Bears? 

2 hours ago, soulman said:

All of my theorizing stems from one rumor that seems to have gained traction and that is why has GMcC suddenly changed his mind about trading up to #4 overall for a QB when he would not agree to it before?  He's was OK with big deals for Watson or Wilson but not a rookie.  So if that rumor is accurate what changed his mind.  Think on that.

He now knows that he can't make a trade for Russell Wilson or DeShaun Watson. It just can't be done. Pace has opened his eyes to other avenues. And Atlanta being willing to make a trade was entirely unexpected. 

Edited April 11, 2021 by Heinz D.

[soulman]

10 minutes ago, Heinz D. said:

Yeah...it's an opinion. But I think most folks would agree that a team is not trading a HOF quarterback for a rookie, in an essentially straight up deal. 

It could be done--they could put future picks out there. But would it be done? No. Seattle wouldn't accept it, in all likelihood. And it would be dumb of the Bears to do it. Yet again, as I said--the Bears could potentially be looking at being a true contender four years down the road, when Wilson will be thirty-six. 

So, me saying a basic one-for-one trade of Fields for Wilson won't happen is an "opinion"...but that statement is a FACT? Really?

What if Carroll just retires? 

Wilson's problem is that he thinks management is not handling the team correctly, and he's right. And if your point about the size of his contract is actually correct--how does that not also apply to the Bears? 

He now knows that he can't make a trade for Russell Wilson or DeShaun Watson. It just can't be done. Pace has opened his eyes to other avenues. And Atlanta being willing to make a trade was entirely unexpected. 

I believe Russell Wilson will be traded.  That's my opinion but I'll also betcha a buck it happens.  🤑

As for the rest I'm simply theorizing by extension on why GMcC suddenly became OK with swapping a kings ransom to allow a HC who couldn't make a franchise QB out of Mitch Trubisky and the guy who drafted him to make yet another top five QB pick?

Especially one for a QB whom I don't see as any kind of fit at all for Nagy's way of doing things.  Am I supposed to believe he's that one leopard whose willing to change his spots?  Not likely.  Not when he's still trying to prove "his way" will work.

Other avenues is precisely what my let's play Owner and GM were all about.  Call it imaginary thinking or just thinkin' outside the box.  Whatever you like.  But remember I live in Colorado and weed is legal here.  🤣

[Heinz D.]

12 hours ago, soulman said:

I believe Russell Wilson will be traded.  That's my opinion but I'll also betcha a buck it happens.  🤑

 

I'm split on that. He's telling teammates he's sticking around in Seattle, but who knows if he really means it, or what's motivating him to tell them that right now. If he is traded, I think the only way he becomes a Bear is if he really wants to be a Bear. Which is certainly possible. I think the Raiders or a team not on his short list (like the Jets) is far more probable, though.

12 hours ago, soulman said:

As for the rest I'm simply theorizing by extension on why GMcC suddenly became OK with swapping a kings ransom to allow a HC who couldn't make a franchise QB out of Mitch Trubisky and the guy who drafted him to make yet another top five QB pick?

Who knows what Spurious George is thinking? I mean, of course you're right, Pace shouldn't be trusted to trade up and make a top five pick...but he still has a job and unless S.G. wants to micro-manage, Pace could maybe still pull it off. The rumor is just about them contacting Atlanta, though. We have no idea if the talks were productive, or not. If I had to bet on it, I'd say "not".

12 hours ago, soulman said:

Especially one for a QB whom I don't see as any kind of fit at all for Nagy's way of doing things.  Am I supposed to believe he's that one leopard whose willing to change his spots?  Not likely.  Not when he's still trying to prove "his way" will work.

I have no idea what Nagy's "way" is, really. I don't know if Nagy does, either. Fields is way more accurate than Trubisky, and a better runner. So there's that.

12 hours ago, soulman said:

Other avenues is precisely what my let's play Owner and GM were all about.  Call it imaginary thinking or just thinkin' outside the box.  Whatever you like.  But remember I live in Colorado and weed is legal here.  🤣

😄Well, Wilson to the Bears isn't a pipe dream, exactly. I'd love it to happen, but I'm not getting my hopes up.

Edited April 11, 2021 by Heinz D.

[Sugashane]

18 hours ago, soulman said:

I understand but then wouldn't we once again be spending a top 5 draft pick on a QB for yet another HC?  We just sent the last guy we did that with off packing for Buffalo.  HC like to pick their own QB and if we keep doing what we did with Mitch we also keep frustrating that methodology and risk another bad match between a QB and his HC.

Personally I'm not looking past Nagy and Pace.  I know GMcC does not like turnover in the front off or the coaching staff.  It's both costly and it's even more embarrassing to him than losing and these two have made the playoff two out of the last three years so no matter how mediocre they've been he can still hang his hat on that vs say Fox.

If GMcC has truly blessed a massive trade up to #4 then he's either agreed to give the "Collaborators" more time to make it all work or they have a trade scenario for Wilson in the works.  Pete Carroll refuses to trade Wilson without a starting QB in exchange so here's your QB.  A rookie #4 overall pick and we take Wilson and his contract away.

That gives Schneider a rookie QB on a far cheaper 4 year deal and all kinds of cap space to add talent around him on both offense and defense he's not been able to do because of Wilson's deal.  We get a vet QB whose a proven winner and can compete for a SB before the defense ages any more and we lose that advantage.  It could work.

As for Nagy and his offense I see more stubbornness than ego.  If he was that egocentric he wouldn't surround himself with the kind of talent he's hired to coach with him.  Same with play calling.  I think he simply believes his schemes will work and all he needs is the right QB behind center running his show his way.  Mitch wasn't that guy.

Even if we draft a rookie to keep we're at least another year away from him being ready to take over and all of those restructured deals that kicked the cap can down the road keep mounting.  I believe GMcC want at least a SB appearance for Ginny before she dies and she's now 98.  How much longer does she have?  Wilson is win now mode.

Just thinkin' out loud brother.

I agree. I'm just torn atm because I want the Bears to get a franchise QB and this is the class with the talent to have a few options potentially, but understand it is highly unlikely since Nagy and Pace should be in a win now mode.

It's like Tru's class. I was huge on them and not impressed with Darnold and Rosen's class at all. Same situation here. I'd rather have fired Nagy and let a coach pick his guy this year but now we're stuck with the caffeinated version of Fox patrolling the sidelines for another year. He's going to roll with a vet and hope to squeak into the playoffs again, then hope that gets him an extension and another swing at QB. 

If we get Wilson (I'd be ecstatic) I'll still want someone else. Nagy can't elevate players, hes just another Reid puppet and nothing more. 

[beardown3231]

19 hours ago, Epyon said:

"there was one team who has broken down all of Justin Fields’ passes in 2020. They said that just seven times, he looked off the primary target. The other 200+ passes he threw to his primary target.”

https://touchdownwire.usatoday.com/2021/03/30/justin-fields-2021-nfl-draft-processing-speed/

 

Combined with the stuff I previously posted about how he gets dunked on by blitzes and rolling coverages, and his average time to throw being among the slowest in the class, I have a ton of time getting behind him as a prospect. 

He is at least, good at PRE SNAP coverages, as apparently almost the entirety of the OhSt offense was option routes based on coverage. The problem is he simply doesn't adjust post snap when things aren't going to "plan"

Sounds familiar 

[Heinz D.]

1 hour ago, beardown3231 said:

Sounds familiar 

Ehhh...it's a bull**** criticism. I'm not going to dig around and provide stuff that backs that assertion--but saying Fields absolutely can't read defenses is totally silly. And everybody will find that out over the next few years. 

[soulman]

7 hours ago, Heinz D. said:

I'm split on that. He's telling teammates he's sticking around in Seattle, but who knows if he really means it, or what's motivating him to tell them that right now. If he is traded, I think the only way he becomes a Bear is if he really wants to be a Bear. Which is certainly possible. I think the Raiders or a team not on his short list (like the Jets) is far more probable, though.

Who knows what Spurious George is thinking? I mean, of course you're right, Pace shouldn't be trusted to trade up and make a top five pick...but he still has a job and unless S.G. wants to micro-manage, Pace could maybe still pull it off. The rumor is just about them contacting Atlanta, though. We have no idea if the talks were productive, or not. If I had to bet on it, I'd say "not".

I have no idea what Nagy's "way" is, really. I don't know if Nagy does, either. Fields is way more accurate than Trubisky, and a better runner. So there's that.

😄Well, Wilson to the Bears isn't a pipe dream, exactly. I'd love it to happen, but I'm not getting my hopes up.

To be honest I hope they don't trade up for someone like Fields or Lance.  I see upside sure, but I also see far more risk for what the huge price tag going from #20 to #4 will cost. To me it only makes sense if it's to acquire Wilson in what would essentially be a QB for QB trade with maybe a few picks swapped around to balance it all out.

Given their current situation I would do two things.

I would acquire more picks if possible and build talent and protection around the two vet QBs using another pick on a QB like Davis Mills whom I see as a better fit.  OT depth in this draft should extend into round three and there are a number of speedy slot guys available to look at.  Look at CBs too and do a BPA at those positions each round.

We need to come out of this draft with at least one viable OT and if possible two.  I'm just not certain whether or not round one is where you get them vs a better choice at WR or CB.  If Mills can be had in round two I'd take him first then concentrate on the other primary needs focusing on guys who can contribute early in their careers.

Secondary needs that could also be filled later on are ILB and DL.

I really don't know the players that well so I'm focused more on filling needs as strategically as possible.  But even then I have no expectations that without getting Wilson this team can improve itself all that much this offseason.  The defense is already beginning to slip and the offense hasn't risen to the occasion in the past and I'm anything but certain Nagy can solve that problem.  He hasn't shown it yet.

Edited April 11, 2021 by soulman

[Heinz D.]

42 minutes ago, soulman said:

To be honest I hope they don't trade up for someone like Fields or Lance.  I see upside sure, but I also see far more risk for what the huge price tag going from #20 to #4 will cost. To me it only makes sense if it's to acquire Wilson in what would essentially be a QB for QB trade with maybe a few picks swapped around to balance it all out.

The only way I'd trade up to #4 is for Fields. I'm not sure I'd even draft Lance at #20.

42 minutes ago, soulman said:

I would acquire more picks if possible and build talent and protection around the two vet QBs using another pick on a QB like Davis Mills whom I see as a better fit.  OT depth in this draft should extend into round three and there are a number of speedy slot guys available to look at.  Look at CBs too and do a BPA at those positions each round.

If not Fields, I want OT in the first. You're right in that it is a deep position, but there will be two or three sterling guys there at #20, in all likelihood. Grabbing Mills in the second and having him sit works for me. Same with Mond. I'd prefer it if the Bears didn't look at CB at all this year. They stockpile them every draft, let's see how the guys they have work out. If the defense slips, so be it. That just proves that Pace's drafting has been slipping, as well. 

42 minutes ago, soulman said:

We need to come out of this draft with at least one viable OT and if possible two.  

Preach.

They absolutely need to draft two of them, regardless of how they turn out. And by "draft" I mean WELL before the seventh round, like they did last year. 

[soulman]

4 hours ago, Sugashane said:

I agree. I'm just torn atm because I want the Bears to get a franchise QB and this is the class with the talent to have a few options potentially, but understand it is highly unlikely since Nagy and Pace should be in a win now mode.

It's like Tru's class. I was huge on them and not impressed with Darnold and Rosen's class at all. Same situation here. I'd rather have fired Nagy and let a coach pick his guy this year but now we're stuck with the caffeinated version of Fox patrolling the sidelines for another year. He's going to roll with a vet and hope to squeak into the playoffs again, then hope that gets him an extension and another swing at QB. 

If we get Wilson (I'd be ecstatic) I'll still want someone else. Nagy can't elevate players, hes just another Reid puppet and nothing more. 

My greatest problem with this group of QBs is that I think there are two who stand out as much better prospects than the rest, Lawrence and Wilson.  I had my eye on Wilson last fall and thought he'd be ideal before his play got him elevated to the top of most draft charts.  Too bad he wasn't in the same draft as Trubisky.  Timing is everything huh?

So after the top two you have Jones who with the right team could do very well or he could become another Jimmy G.  Decent but not outstanding.  Some may see a lot of Watson in Fields or Lance.  I don't or at least not without a need to either develop him over time (Lance) or build an offense around him (Fields) whereas others like Mills who wouldn't require a trade up to the top five seems like a better fit now.

So if Larry and Curly are gonna trade up it's for the #4 pick AND the #4 QB in this draft and the risk is they fail to get it right once again.  This is one of those times when I would not push my chips and go all in in lieu of building infrastructure around whoever ends up eventually as the Bears QB.  With better tools and better protection I have no doubt even Mitch would have done better and Cutler could have won a SB.

JMHO

Edited April 12, 2021 by soulman

[soulman]

13 minutes ago, Heinz D. said:

The only way I'd trade up to #4 is for Fields. I'm not sure I'd even draft Lance at #20.

If not Fields, I want OT in the first. You're right in that it is a deep position, but there will be two or three sterling guys there at #20, in all likelihood. Grabbing Mills in the second and having him sit works for me. Same with Mond. I'd prefer it if the Bears didn't look at CB at all this year. They stockpile them every draft, let's see how the guys they have work out. If the defense slips, so be it. That just proves that Pace's drafting has been slipping, as well. 

 

 

Maybe you're one who sees some of Watson in Fields and I don't.  I don't have a good feeling about any OSU QB and beyond that I don't see how he fits Nagy and his scheme.

As for a pick at #20 I have no way of telling what can be done or should be done until the dust settles around the first 10-12 picks.  Is there a can't miss guy to trade up for? Is there a top CB or WR that can't be passed on at #20.  Can you get more of what you want by trading back and getting over paid for it?  In my mind it's a fluid draft position.

So.....as I keep saying, wake me when it's over.  Without being able to engineer a trade for Wilson there's just not enough movement or improvement to make me feel 2021 will be all that different from 2020.  We still end up in QB Purgatory and therefore NFL Purgatory as well.  No SB heaven and no top five pick hell, just sublime mediocrity.

[Heinz D.]

10 minutes ago, soulman said:

Maybe you're one who sees some of Watson in Fields and I don't.  I don't have a good feeling about any OSU QB and beyond that I don't see how he fits Nagy and his scheme.

As for a pick at #20 I have no way of telling what can be done or should be done until the dust settles around the first 10-12 picks.  Is there a can't miss guy to trade up for? Is there a top CB or WR that can't be passed on at #20.  Can you get more of what you want by trading back and getting over paid for it?  In my mind it's a fluid draft position.

So.....as I keep saying, wake me when it's over.  Without being able to engineer a trade for Wilson there's just not enough movement or improvement to make me feel 2021 will be all that different from 2020.  We still end up in QB Purgatory and therefore NFL Purgatory as well.  No SB heaven and no top five pick hell, just sublime mediocrity.

I can't come up with a clear cut comp for Fields off the top of my head--and that's a good thing.

If I ran the Bears, the only way I'd trade up is for one of the big four QBs. There are certainly other gifted players that could possibly fall, but given how the draft is stacked, and what the Bears needs are (and how many needs there are) I wouldn't consider monkeying about with future picks all that much. On the flip side, I'd target a few guys at #20, and then be absolutely open to trading down if they're not there. 

For example, the Bears need a WR, but their situation isn't dire. If it's a matter of either getting Bateman at #20, or trading down, acquiring more picks, and getting Eskridge or Smith-Marsette later...I'm taking option #2. 

[Sugashane]

11 hours ago, soulman said:

Some may see a lot of Watson in Fields or Lance.  I don't or at least not without a need to either develop him over time (Lance) or build an offense around him (Fields) whereas others like Mills who wouldn't require a trade up to the top five seems like a better fit now.

My issue is that Mills will fit this offense better but unless we're spending a 3rd or lower that is a wasted pick to me. I dont expect the Bears to do well this season and Nagy is cannon fodder. He may fit the offense better this year but this is a sorry excuse of a system to fit. He doesnt wow with any traits, and has mediocre athleticism. I want a QB to have at least one trait to really hang their hat on and Mills seems like hes just ok at a number of things but great at nothing. He lacks experience, any great tools, and has an injury history iirc (his film didn't do much for me so I'm admittedly light on knowledge of him). 

Just seems like the discount Trubisky. Took away athleticism and added injury concerns. I'll take a swing with him but not early.

I'm fully on the on boom or bust train for QBs, hence the willingness to go after Lance or Fields. I'd rather have a failure and reset with a high pick than stay willing 7 or 8 games. I hate this purgatory we've been stuck in. Only way we will get out of it is by getting a franchise guy.