Trevor Lawrence is looking like a bad pick for the Jags

[JAF-N72EX]

1 hour ago, ET80 said:

Some of these expectations are absolutely asinine. What would have happened if Buffalo took a similar stance from Y1 of Josh Allen?

This sums it up nicely.

Five Rookie Quarterbacks That We Meet Every Year

Justin Fields, Mac Jones, Trey Lance, Trevor Lawrence, and Zach Wilson are all likely to play a lot this season. And, by and large, they're gonna stink.

That's not pessimism. It's realism. Aaron Schatz says it all the time on the Twitch FO Radio Hour: rookie quarterbacks are generally bad. We remember Justin Herbert, Russell Wilson, and Ben Roethlisberger. We forget dozens and dozens of other guys who endured miserable to mediocre rookie years, from Ryan Leaf to Peyton Manning, Sam Darnold to Josh Allen.

Just 13 rookie quarterbacks have thrown for 20-plus touchdowns since 2000. Just 19 have thrown for over 3,000 yards. Those are not benchmarks of excellence, merely adequacy. Seventeen rookie quarterbacks have thrown 15-plus interceptions since 2000, including seven first overall picks (the most likely ones to get the chance to shoot through a slump). Wins are not a quarterback stat, but just seven rookies have led their teams to 10 of them in this century.

All of this brake-pumping feels necessary after an August where the engagement-thirsty Internet couldn't stop cheerleading for the first-round rookies as if they were destined to throw 40 touchdowns each in 2021. Lawrence may be a prospect of Andrew Luck's caliber, but Luck threw 18 interceptions and finished 19th in DYAR in his first year—and that was a relatively strong rookie season. Lance may be Russell Wilson once Kyle Shanahan tires of the two-quarterback rotation he teased on Sunday, or he may be a Josh Allen in need of an extra-long onramp to success. Fields will prove that he is better than Andy Dalton when the Bears finally give him his chance, but "better than Andy Dalton" is not a very lofty standard.

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/walkthrough/2021/five-rookie-quarterbacks-we-meet-every-year

[ET80]

3 hours ago, ronjon1990 said:

You're right on the expectations being ludicrous. But those expectations were also built by the ludicrous hyping of Lawrence as a prospect. 

I sort of get that, but it's not like the hype was engineered by Lawrence himself - actually, Lawrence was pretty quiet during the whole thing, you barely heard from him outside of what you want to hear from a QB (tough opponent, great teammates, work hard every day, gives credit to the coaching staff and alumni...)

If we can concede the hype was picked up due to media exposure, can we also admit this sort of discussion is premature at best... and reactionary to forces outside of football at worst?

[ET80]

4 hours ago, Dr A W Niloc said:

     And should therefore be trading down until they have the latter two, at least.

...so, get all of the resources and then pick a QB to lead the way?

How's that working out for Cleveland and Baker Mayfield? Is he really taking advantage of all of the high profile assets at his disposal, or is Cleveland now in a spot where they have to either pay Mayfield more than he's worth, or find another QB to fit where he doesn't?

This theoretical plan of trading down and continuing to build a franchise around an eventual rookie is flawed - because you're assuming a QB worth having is there every year. Some years, there are no good QBs and you're thinking a guy like EJ Manuel or Geno Smith will lead the charge (to very disasterous results).

This doesn't work outside of Madden.

[ronjon1990]

5 minutes ago, ET80 said:

I sort of get that, but it's not like the hype was engineered by Lawrence himself - actually, Lawrence was pretty quiet during the whole thing, you barely heard from him outside of what you want to hear from a QB (tough opponent, great teammates, work hard every day, gives credit to the coaching staff and alumni...)

If we can concede the hype was picked up due to media exposure, can we also admit this sort of discussion is premature at best... and reactionary to forces outside of football at worst?

Oh it's beyond premature. 

I think he's ultimately an average QB that probably wasn't worth the hype, but plays decent enough (sort of a Carson Palmer type...not bad, not great). 

But how anyone can look at the Jaguars roster and say he's a bust and was a bad pick? Show me ANY QB that can make them look 'good' and I'll show you a repentant Cal McNair. 

[Breesus mode]

This is a really stupid thread, why is it 19 pages?

[NeptunePenguins]

50 minutes ago, Breesus mode said:

This is a really stupid thread, why is it 19 pages?

Because Lawrence will never be better than Trent Green.

[Xenos]

1 hour ago, Breesus mode said:

This is a really stupid thread, why is it 19 pages?

Because of posters like Neptune.

[ronjon1990]

1 hour ago, NeptunePenguins said:

Because Lawrence will never be better than Trent Green.

Is that supposed to be a dig at Trent Green? 

Pre-injury, he was on target for a very good career, especially for a late bloomer on lackluster teams with lackluster coaching and weapons. 

Given the history of #1 overall QBs, or even top-15 drafted QBs this millennium, if Lawrence replicates Trent Green's career that was cut short, it would just about justify his draft status. 

[ET80]

11 hours ago, ronjon1990 said:

Is that supposed to be a dig at Trent Green? 

Pre-injury, he was on target for a very good career, especially for a late bloomer on lackluster teams with lackluster coaching and weapons. 

Given the history of #1 overall QBs, or even top-15 drafted QBs this millennium, if Lawrence replicates Trent Green's career that was cut short, it would just about justify his draft status. 

You're expecting him to understand football? You're braver than me.

[KhanYouDigIt]

 

[LieutenantGains]

I honestly don't know if we ever see Lawrence reach his potential. Any team other than the Jaguars, Jets, and maybe Lions and I think he is a stud.

[iknowcool]

21 hours ago, JAF-N72EX said:

Justin Fields, Mac Jones, Trey Lance, Trevor Lawrence, and Zach Wilson are all likely to play a lot this season. And, by and large, they're gonna stink.

I want to preface this by saying I generally agree with what you are saying.  Most rookie QBs are going to be average to below average.

However, there is only so bad you can perform where we can write it off as normal "rookie woes".  When is the last time a rookie put up numbers as bad as Wilson will likely finish with this year, and turned out to be a good QB?  Everyone keeps bringing up Allen, but he scored 18 touchdowns in 12 games.  The upside to being an elite touchdown-machine was always there with Allen, even when he'd struggle as a passer.  Wilson has 5 TDs in 7 games, and 4 of his passing touchdowns came in 2 games.  He has 1 TD in the 5 other games.  

I do agree people sometimes expect too much out of a rookie.  Lawrence, to me, is having a typical rookie QB season w/ growing pains.  On the other end of that though, some rookie QBs are just bad.  I'm not saying Wilson can't improve, but I think the Jets would be making a huge mistake by not at least considering if Wilson is the man for the job going forward.  That doesn't mean they should draft a QB in the 1st, but he shouldn't be the unquestioned starter in 2022.  I think just writing off his issues as normal rookie struggles would be a mistake.  He legitimately looks like a bad QB.

[KhanYouDigIt]

1 minute ago, iknowcool said:

I want to preface this by saying I generally agree with what you are saying.  Most rookie QBs are going to be average to below average.

However, there is only so bad you can perform where we can write it off as normal "rookie woes".  When is the last time a rookie put up numbers as bad as Wilson will likely finish with this year, and turned out to be a good QB?  Everyone keeps bringing up Allen, but he scored 18 touchdowns in 12 games.  The upside to being an elite touchdown-machine was always there with Allen, even when he'd struggle as a passer.  Wilson has 5 TDs in 7 games, and 4 of his passing touchdowns came in 2 games.  He has 1 TD in the 5 other games.  

I do agree people sometimes expect too much out of a rookie.  Lawrence, to me, is having a typical rookie QB season w/ growing pains.  On the other end of that though, some rookie QBs are just bad.  I'm not saying Wilson can't improve, but I think the Jets would be making a huge mistake by not at least considering if Wilson is the man for the job going forward.  That doesn't mean they should draft a QB in the 1st, but he shouldn't be the unquestioned starter in 2022.  I think just writing off his issues as normal rookie struggles would be a mistake.  He legitimately looks like a bad QB.

I got Jimmy Clausen vibes with Wilson.

[notthatbluestuff]

Lawrence tentatively improving along with the Jaguars: 

https://www.espn.com/blog/jacksonville-jaguars/post/_/id/29716/jacksonville-jaguars-finally-change-offense-to-better-suit-trevor-lawrence

Quote

The hope is using more tempo, incorporating more quarterback runs (on read-options or designed calls) and adding some run-pass options (things Lawrence was comfortable with and thrived in at Clemson) will spark a unit that has scored five touchdowns in six games since the bye week.

The Jaguars (2-9) tried some of that against the Falcons (5-6). Lawrence kept the ball on four read-option plays, and Bevell went up-tempo for the first three plays of the second half and again in the fourth quarter on their lone touchdown drive.

“I thought we had some good wrinkles today,” said Lawrence, who completed 23 of 42 passes for 228 yards and a touchdown with one interception. “Obviously not the result we wanted. [We] wanted to come out with a win. But I think offensively we were a lot more efficient. No. 1 thing is finishing drives. We've got to score more touchdowns.

 

[NeptunePenguins]

In all seriousness I don't like to judge NFL QBs until most likely their 3rd year or so, unless it seems obvious that they are really good or bad yeah. Lawrence is playing just well enough that I wouldn't get too under him right now.