2021 QB Rankings (by the numbers, FINAL)

[Soko]

7 hours ago, JonMcC2018 said:

The 49ers.

Jonathan Taylor is averaging an excellent 5.6 yards per carry. Throw in a replacement level running back who averages 4.6 yards per carry and that running back is still leading the NFL in yards. Based on the number of carried he gets Jonathan Taylor is essentially giving you an extra 18 yards per game than a replacement level running back in his position would do.

Of course this is simplified somewhat, but individual running backs just don't move the needle that much.

That’s…not how it works. 

That’s like saying: Cooper Kupp is averaging 13.7 YPC. Nelson Agholor averages 13 YPC. Therefore Kupp is only a 0.7 YPC improvement over Agholor, Agholor would lead the league in receiving if he was in Kupp’s spot.

Doesn’t work that way. Can do that bad logic with about any stat, just doesn’t fly. And that’s assuming a street free agent you sign in December is going to come in and give every team 4.6 YPC? Which… come on. 

[childofpudding]

Great work on this.

I'd love to see this using EPA/play instead of EPA+CPOE. I once had this debate online with some of the NFL analytics guys about it. EPA/play is more strongly correlated to offensive success than EPA+CPOE. CPOE just drags down the correlation, and is barely more correlated than completion percentage. EPA/play is on par with ANY/A in terms of its strength of correlation with offensive success measures such as points/drive, yards/drive and drive success rate. They keep pushing CPOE as a valuable measure because, they argue, it is predictive for EPA/play. But EPA/play is more predictive for offensive success.

I also put together a passer rating alternative that used net yards per completion instead of yards per attempt as one of the four factors, so as to not overweigh completion percentage in the final rating. Its correlation with various measures of success was on par with ANY/A, which is just slightly below EPA/play by about 0.02 or so depending on which offensive success measure you use.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1-LdJErWIOALfNaRPQqlXdElGGaR5rYGv/view

There's also perhaps some fine-tuning you could do with this that uses the actual numbers for each metric rather than their rankings for each metric. As an example, let's say the 1st ranked QB in passer rating has a passer rating of 120, the 2nd ranked QB's is 119, and 3rd ranked QB's is 99. The rankings assume an equal drop in quality from 1 to 2 as 2 to 3, but the rating numbers clearly show that isn't the case. Probably more trouble than it's worth, as you'd have to normalize each metric to 100 and then do some kind of scaling where the top QB gets a ranking of 1 and everyone below gets a ranking of 1.xx or 2.xx or whatever. And PFF could muck that up if all you have is the ranking. Again, great work on this, and thank you.

 

Edited December 10, 2021 by childofpudding

[RandyMossIsBoss]

On 12/10/2021 at 12:09 AM, JAF-N72EX said:

It's too late tonight, but I can compile all the data to separate the two to give more options for you and others by negating whatever you feel is irrelevant (i.e if someone hates PFF then they can exclude them if they wish).

I believe that's what @RandyMossIsBoss is aiming to do by posting a link to the raw data.  But what I don't think he realizes that he is posting broken links that nobody can view.

Hint. Hint RandyMoss.

 

This link doesn't work for you?  https://onedrive.live.com/view.aspx?resid=A163D2088A9013FD!2287&ithint=file%2cxlsx&authkey=!AMGGGgQH1bI9nYI

(same link as what is in OP and most recent post).

[JAF-N72EX]

17 hours ago, RandyMossIsBoss said:

This link doesn't work for you?  https://onedrive.live.com/view.aspx?resid=A163D2088A9013FD!2287&ithint=file%2cxlsx&authkey=!AMGGGgQH1bI9nYI

(same link as what is in OP and most recent post).

Yeah it does now. The problem was on my end.....I forgot how much microsoft hates vpn's. My mistake.

[RandyMossIsBoss]

	QB	PR	QBR	PFF	DVOA	ANY/A	EPA/CPOE	Avg	SD
1	Aaron Rodgers	1	1	5	1	2	1	1.8	1.5	+3
2	Matthew Stafford	2	3	8	4	1	4	3.7	2.2	+3
3	Kyler Murray	3	9	6	5	5	3	5.2	2.0
4	Tom Brady	7	4	2	2	6	12	5.5	3.5
5	Justin Herbert	8	2	3	6	7	10	6.0	2.8
6	Jimmy Garoppolo	5	10	14	3	3	2	6.2	4.4
7	Kirk Cousins	4	12	4	7	4	13	7.3	3.8	-4
8	Patrick Mahomes	12	6	16	9	8	5	9.3	3.7	+6
9	Josh Allen	11	7	9	12	14	8	10.2	2.4
10	Joe Burrow	6	17	1	23	11	7	10.8	7.3
11	Derek Carr	15	11	13	10	10	14	12.2	2.0
12	Dak Prescott	10	19	12	8	9	16	12.3	3.9	-3
13	Mac Jones	16	13	10	13	17	11	13.3	2.5
14	Teddy Bridgewater	14	20	18	11	16	6	14.2	4.6
15	Tua Tagovailoa	17	8	17	16	18	9	14.2	4.1
16	Carson Wentz	13	5	23	15	13	19	14.7	5.6
17	Russell Wilson	9	16	19	14	12	21	15.2	4.1
18	Jalen Hurts	24	21	11	20	19	18	18.8	4.0
19	Ryan Tannehill	26	14	7	27	26	15	19.2	7.6
20	Matt Ryan	19	18	15	22	21	23	19.7	2.7
21	Lamar Jackson	23	15	22	21	22	17	20.0	2.9
22	Baker Mayfield	20	26	24	17	15	22	20.7	3.8
23	Taylor Heinicke	22	22	26	18	23	20	21.8	2.5
24	Ben Roethlisberger	18	24	28	19	20	24	22.2	3.5
25	Daniel Jones	25	23	21	25	24	25	23.8	1.5
26	Jared Goff	21	27	27	24	25	26	25.0	2.1
27	Davis Mills	27	29	32	26	27	27	28.0	2.0
28	Taysom Hill	32	25	20	30	31	30	28.0	4.2
29	Justin Fields	28	31	25	29	30	28	28.5	1.9
30	Trevor Lawrence	29	28	30	28	29	29	28.8	0.7
31	Cam Newton	30	30	31	32	28	32	30.5	1.4
32	Zach Wilson	31	32	29	31	32	31	31.0	1.0

 

 

QBRank2021.xlsx

 

@childofpudding added a tab with each metrics normalized 1-100

[Forge]

You all wish you had a Jimmy G. 

Well guess what? You're in luck. This off season you can have your very own Jimmy G for the low, low price of a first round pick (plus shipping and handling). Act quickly, there is a very limited sample. 

 

[rocky_rams]

30 minutes ago, Forge said:

You all wish you had a Jimmy G. 

Well guess what? You're in luck. This off season you can have your very own Jimmy G for the low, low price of a first round pick (plus shipping and handling). Act quickly, there is a very limited sample. 

 

But! If you order in the next ten minutes…

[Nabbs4u]

2 hours ago, rocky_rams said:

But! If you order in the next ten minutes…

You get a box of Bon bons and two Juicy fruits. Order now!

[RandyMossIsBoss]

QBs included threw 130+ passes. SD= standard deviation. 

	QB	PR	QBR	PFF	DVOA	ANY/A	EPA/CPOE	Avg	SD
1	Aaron Rodgers	1	1	4	1	1	1	1.5	1.1
2	Tom Brady	8	2	1	2	5	5	3.8	2.4
3	Joe Burrow	2	12	2	16	2	2	6.0	5.8
4	Matthew Stafford	6	5	11	9	3	6	6.7	2.6
5	Justin Herbert	12	3	3	6	11	9	7.3	3.6
6	Dak Prescott	3	10	8	3	7	14	7.5	3.9
7	Patrick Mahomes	11	6	13	4	10	3	7.8	3.7
8	Kyler Murray	9	8	7	7	12	8	8.5	1.7
9	Kirk Cousins	4	16	5	8	4	15	8.7	5.0
10	Jimmy Garoppolo	10	15	17	5	6	4	9.5	5.0
11	Jameis Winston	7	4	19	10	8	11	9.8	4.7
12	Josh Allen	17	7	6	17	15	10	12.0	4.5
13	Russell Wilson	5	13	20	13	9	17	12.8	4.9
14	Derek Carr	15	14	15	12	13	16	14.2	1.3
15	Mac Jones	16	17	12	15	18	12	15.0	2.3
16	Teddy Bridgewater	13	24	21	11	17	7	15.5	5.8
17	Carson Wentz	14	11	23	18	14	22	17.0	4.4
18	Ryan Tannehill	21	9	9	31	25	13	18.0	8.3
19	Jalen Hurts	24	22	10	19	16	18	18.2	4.5
20	Tua Tagovailoa	20	20	25	20	21	19	20.8	2.0
21	Matt Ryan	19	25	16	24	20	23	21.2	3.1
22	Lamar Jackson	25	19	24	21	22	20	21.8	2.1
23	Jared Goff	18	30	31	22	23	27	25.2	4.6
24	Trevor Siemian	23	32	28	23	19	30	25.8	4.5
25	Daniel Jones	28	27	22	30	24	26	26.2	2.6
26	Mike White	35	18	39	14	31	21	26.3	9.2
27	Taylor Heinicke	27	29	33	25	29	24	27.8	3.0
28	Jacoby Brissett	30	21	14	35	35	33	28.0	7.9
29	Taysom Hill	34	26	18	29	30	34	28.5	5.5
30	Baker Mayfield	29	34	30	26	28	25	28.7	2.9
31	Davis Mills	22	33	36	27	26	32	29.3	4.7
32	Ben Roethlisberger	26	31	37	28	27	29	29.7	3.6
33	Tyler Huntley	33	23	26	32	38	28	30.0	4.9
34	Tyrod Taylor	32	28	35	37	34	31	32.8	2.9
35	Andy Dalton	31	37	27	34	33	36	33.0	3.3
36	Trevor Lawrence	37	35	32	33	32	37	34.3	2.1
37	Justin Fields	36	39	29	36	37	35	35.3	3.1
38	Sam Darnold	38	36	38	38	36	38	37.3	0.9
39	Zach Wilson	39	38	34	39	39	40	38.2	2.0
40	Mike Glennon	40	40	40	40	40	39	39.8	0.4

 

 

Tiers 1: Rodgers

Tier 2: Brady, Burrow, Herbert, Stafford, Mahomes, Dak

Tier 3: Cousins, Winston, Murray, Jimmy G, Josh Allen, Wilson, Carr, Bridgewater, Mac

Tier 4: Tannehill, Wentz, Hurts, Tua, Lamar, Matt Ryan,

Tier 5- Daniel Jones, Mike White, Goff. Siemian, Heinicke, Taysom, Mayfield, Brissett, Mills, Roethlisberger, Huntley

Tier 6- Dalton, Tyrod, Lawrence, Fields, Darnold, Wilson, Glennon

 

QBRank2021.xlsx

[NYRaider]

Cousins, Jimmy G, Winston over Josh Allen?

[childofpudding]

Thank you for doing this all season. It was great and I appreciate it!

[JonMcC2018]

The QB Rankings of the 14 teams that made the playoffs:

1. Rodgers

2. Brady

3. Burrow

4. Stafford

6. Prescott

7. Mahomes

8. Murray

10. Garoppolo

12. Allen

14. Carr

15. Jones

18. Tannehill

19. Hurts

32. Roethlisberger

You'd have to say well done to Mike Tomlin 😃

[JonMcC2018]

As for the Chargers and Vikings who both had top 10 QBs and didn't make the playoffs though.... 😶

[vike daddy]

2 hours ago, JonMcC2018 said:

As for the Chargers and Vikings who both had top 10 QBs and didn't make the playoffs though.... 😶

very sieve-like defense on our end resulted in that, losing several games in the last minute or two.

[Xenos]

2 minutes ago, vike daddy said:

very sieve-like defense on our end resulted in that, losing several games in the last minute or two.

Same