2021 QB Rankings (by the numbers, FINAL)

[Blackstar12]

Wentz seems like a good fit in Indy. Started off shaky but he’s more comfortable. He’s on pace to have his best season since 2017. Next step for Ballard is two give him a solid #2 next to Pittman and other weapons. Pascal is meh and Hilton looks just about done. 

Edited December 9, 2021 by Blackstar12

[Tk3]

23 hours ago, incognito_man said:

This is effectively the MVP thread. 

Brady has it just about in the bag unless Rodgers goes on a year and secures the #1 seed and puts up some chunk volume numbers to close the gap over the next 5 weeks.

 

9 hours ago, LieutenantGains said:

Yeah this is close to being sealed. If Brady beats Allen and the Bills while putting up 3+ TD's and 300+ yards it may be over. I just don't know if Rodgers will put up huge volume numbers. I could see him ending with around a 35 TD/5 INT 4200 yards line. But if he finishes with the same record as Brady or just one more win is that enough to offset a likely 10+ TD and 800ish yard difference? I know Brady has more INT's but the passer ratings will be close.

 

I will continue to stress that Jonathan Taylor is not only a LEGITIMATE candidate, but is also having (arguably) a better 2021 season than Derrick Henry had in 2020

[Apparition]

16 minutes ago, Tk3 said:

I will continue to stress that Jonathan Taylor is not only a LEGITIMATE candidate, but is also having (arguably) a better 2021 season than Derrick Henry had in 2020

It's interesting to consider what kind of season he'll have to have in order to win the award.

The last RB to win MVP was Adrian Peterson in 2012 and he had several key things go his way in order to win:
1. No QB that truly separated himself from the pack (the best QB was Aaron Rodgers, who won it the previous season, but had regressed to the mean enough in 2012 to not stand out nearly as much.)
2. A 2000-yard season, with almost a 500-yard gap between AP and the next leading rusher. 
3. Taking a team with Christian Ponder at QB and a middle-of-the-pack defense to a 10-6 record despite facing one of the league's tougher schedules.

Condition 1 is probably going to be fulfilled for Taylor this season, unless someone goes on an absolute tear and throws for 20 TDs and 0 INTs over his final 5 games. 
Condition 2 is a possibility, with Taylor currently about 350 yards ahead of Joe Mixon. Although Mixon could certainly close the gap, because Taylor still has his bye week ahead of him. A bigger question is whether Taylor can reach that 2000-yard plateau. He's currently nowhere near on pace for it. He'd have to average 163 yards per game over his final 4 and he's currently averaging just under 104 per game for the season. Is 2000 yards an absolute necessity for him to win MVP? Probably not. But he'd have to compensate elsewhere (i.e. scoring 20 TDs, which is actually pretty likely at this point).
Condition 3 is where it gets tricky. The Colts are very much in the playoff hunt, but their next two games could very well knock them out, because they face arguably the two best teams in the NFL (New England and Arizona) and would need a lot of help to make it into the postseason if they drop both. Also, the Colts have a categorically stronger passing game than the 2012 Vikings, while their defense is roughly equal. 

Long story short, I think if the Colts make the playoffs and Taylor's production for the final 4 games looks more like his last 5 than his first 5, then I could see it happening. If not, then it's gonna be a QB. 

[Tk3]

20 minutes ago, Apparition said:

It's interesting to consider what kind of season he'll have to have in order to win the award.

The last RB to win MVP was Adrian Peterson in 2012 and he had several key things go his way in order to win:
1. No QB that truly separated himself from the pack (the best QB was Aaron Rodgers, who won it the previous season, but had regressed to the mean enough in 2012 to not stand out nearly as much.)
2. A 2000-yard season, with almost a 500-yard gap between AP and the next leading rusher. 
3. Taking a team with Christian Ponder at QB and a middle-of-the-pack defense to a 10-6 record despite facing one of the league's tougher schedules.

Condition 1 is probably going to be fulfilled for Taylor this season, unless someone goes on an absolute tear and throws for 20 TDs and 0 INTs over his final 5 games. 
Condition 2 is a possibility, with Taylor currently about 350 yards ahead of Joe Mixon. Although Mixon could certainly close the gap, because Taylor still has his bye week ahead of him. A bigger question is whether Taylor can reach that 2000-yard plateau. He's currently nowhere near on pace for it. He'd have to average 163 yards per game over his final 4 and he's currently averaging just under 104 per game for the season. Is 2000 yards an absolute necessity for him to win MVP? Probably not. But he'd have to compensate elsewhere (i.e. scoring 20 TDs, which is actually pretty likely at this point).
Condition 3 is where it gets tricky. The Colts are very much in the playoff hunt, but their next two games could very well knock them out, because they face arguably the two best teams in the NFL (New England and Arizona) and would need a lot of help to make it into the postseason if they drop both. Also, the Colts have a categorically stronger passing game than the 2012 Vikings, while their defense is roughly equal. 

Long story short, I think if the Colts make the playoffs and Taylor's production for the final 4 games looks more like his last 5 than his first 5, then I could see it happening. If not, then it's gonna be a QB. 

I broadly agree with your whole post

But to me you nailed it right at the top. He needs there to be a lack of truly deserving MVP candidate at the QB position - and I think that vaccuum DOES exist this season

I don't know that he needs the 2,000 rushing yards if he has well over 2,200-2,500 scrimmage yards and 20+ TDs and 5.6 YPA

 

I also agree the Colts need to make the playoffs and be the guy to lead them there

Edited December 9, 2021 by Tk3

[JonMcC2018]

It's most valuable player though, so it's got to be a QB. Has Jonathan Taylor been better than someone like Trent Williams, who PFF would say is having pretty much the greatest season by an offensive lineman in the last 20 years? Or Aaron Donald, TJ Watt, Devante Adams etc (who are all probably more valuable than a running back).

As for Aaron Rodgers, well... he could very well deserve to win it by the end of the season, but after the whole immunisation thing I think there's a 0% chance he gets any worthwhile amount of votes.

[CP3MVP]

If Aaron Rodgers won mvp it would probably be anchoring the worst offense we’ve seen from a winner. 
 

The packers are 15th in Points and yards. Now footballoutsiders has them in a better light at 5th but that’s a step down from number one last year. 

[Bearerofnews]

Remember when 80% of you thought Herbert would be a bust.

 

 

[Forge]

4 minutes ago, Bearerofnews said:

Remember when 80% of you thought Herbert would be a bust.

 

 

That seems conservative

[Soko]

2 hours ago, JonMcC2018 said:

It's most valuable player though, so it's got to be a QB. Has Jonathan Taylor been better than someone like Trent Williams, who PFF would say is having pretty much the greatest season by an offensive lineman in the last 20 years? Or Aaron Donald, TJ Watt, Devante Adams etc (who are all probably more valuable than a running back).

There’s more than one way to determine value, though. Pluck Williams off and replace him with a JAG left tackle. Do the same for Indy. Which team do you think has the bigger W/L swing?

Running backs are incredibly valuable within the confines of a single season. They’re devalued overall because of their shelf life, the timing of when they get paid (24-27 years old at second contract), their propensity to miss time with how much contact they absorb, and how many running backs you can grab from season to season. None of which are major factors if you’re limiting the scope to a single season, which the 2021 MVP voting does.

You’re not going to replace Taylor if he goes down with anyone remotely in his ballpark. The guy’s been healthy thus far (which is a feat, tbh). His age isn’t a factor. All the things that make the running back position a bit of a sore spot, don’t really matter in a one season sample size. Especially if you’re giving health.

QBs are definitely playing under a different set of rules, though. Inherently more valuable, obviously. It takes an unspectacular round of QB play for a RB to even have a chance, which I think is the case here. Within a single season, I think an RB that manages to stay healthy (as Taylor has) has as much value as just about any single non-QB position. 

Edited December 9, 2021 by Yin-Yang

[Bearerofnews]

3 hours ago, Forge said:

That seems conservative

I'm loyal to upholding community morale. Real number is 98%

[StatKing]

5 hours ago, CP3MVP said:

If Aaron Rodgers won mvp it would probably be anchoring the worst offense we’ve seen from a winner. 
 

The packers are 15th in Points and yards. Now footballoutsiders has them in a better light at 5th but that’s a step down from number one last year. 

2nd in time of possession. They aren't blowing up the stat sheet this year but the offense has been very efficient considering the amount of players that have been out.

[Apparition]

6 hours ago, JonMcC2018 said:

It's most valuable player though, so it's got to be a QB.

Jonathan Taylor is making a base salary of < $1m this season. I'd say that's a great value. 

[SkippyX]

I'm not the biggest A-A-Ron guy out there but remember this.

Rodgers and Mahomes were 1 and 1a last year around Thanksgiving and Rodgers went nuts.

After 10 games Rodgers had about a 1.3 point lead in rating but Mahomes had him on TD to INT and record.

Rodgers went 6-0 with 19 TDs to 1 pick and a rating around 133 to finish the season. It will take something like that to catch Brady.

 

FYI, In Rodgers 3 MVP season he did this in-division

• 2011 - 15 TDs 1 pick (5 games) Flynn went 6-1 vs Detroit in week 17)
• 2014 - 18 TDs 0 picks
• 2020 - 20 TDs 0 picks

He's got 10 TDs 0 picks through 3 games this year.

He just needs to repeat that, do well against a cornerback free Ravens D, and then not wet the bed vs Cleveland.

 

He will probably be good enough to win, but Brady could still be better.

Kyler Murray remains the wildcard.

[JAF-N72EX]

On 11/24/2021 at 7:05 PM, Forge said:

I feel like this needs to separate epa (or epa/play) and cpoe. I've never understood why people use that as a composite

It's too late tonight, but I can compile all the data to separate the two to give more options for you and others by negating whatever you feel is irrelevant (i.e if someone hates PFF then they can exclude them if they wish).

I believe that's what @RandyMossIsBoss is aiming to do by posting a link to the raw data.  But what I don't think he realizes that he is posting broken links that nobody can view.

Hint. Hint RandyMoss.

 

[JonMcC2018]

11 hours ago, Yin-Yang said:

There’s more than one way to determine value, though. Pluck Williams off and replace him with a JAG left tackle. Do the same for Indy. Which team do you think has the bigger W/L swing?

Running backs are incredibly valuable within the confines of a single season. They’re devalued overall because of their shelf life, the timing of when they get paid (24-27 years old at second contract), their propensity to miss time with how much contact they absorb, and how many running backs you can grab from season to season. None of which are major factors if you’re limiting the scope to a single season, which the 2021 MVP voting does.

You’re not going to replace Taylor if he goes down with anyone remotely in his ballpark. The guy’s been healthy thus far (which is a feat, tbh). His age isn’t a factor. All the things that make the running back position a bit of a sore spot, don’t really matter in a one season sample size. Especially if you’re giving health.

QBs are definitely playing under a different set of rules, though. Inherently more valuable, obviously. It takes an unspectacular round of QB play for a RB to even have a chance, which I think is the case here. Within a single season, I think an RB that manages to stay healthy (as Taylor has) has as much value as just about any single non-QB position. 

The 49ers.

Jonathan Taylor is averaging an excellent 5.6 yards per carry. Throw in a replacement level running back who averages 4.6 yards per carry and that running back is still leading the NFL in yards. Based on the number of carried he gets Jonathan Taylor is essentially giving you an extra 18 yards per game than a replacement level running back in his position would do.

Of course this is simplified somewhat, but individual running backs just don't move the needle that much.