RandyMossIsBoss Posted October 6, 2021 Share Posted October 6, 2021 (edited) Did this last season, a snapshot look at various passing statistics, ratings, grades, etc. weighed equally to get a single number behind each QB's season. This ranking is purely based on the metrics mentioned below, this is not my own, or anybody's, actual QB ranking. I will update the thread periodically through the season. At the moment I incorporate the following, but am open to adding more: Passer Rating= completion %, Y/A, TD% and INT% ANY/A= similar to passer rating but weighed differently + sacks and yards lost on sacks are added to the equation DVOA= the outcome of every play is compared to the league average in that same situation, every box score factor possible is utilized. For QBs, DVOA does not include running, unlike QBR. QBR= similar to DVOA, but with a touch of subjectivity that goes beyond box score (drops, bad plays that weren't fault of QB, etc.), and a clutch factor (more weight towards plays in situations deemed clutch) PFF= every play is looked at and given a grade, the final grade is the cumulative score of every play normalized to a 0-100 scale EPA + CPOE = EPA, expected points added, and CPOE, completion percentage over expected. This final number is arrived at using coefficients that best predict adjusted EPA/play in the future. EPA is central to both QBR and DVOA, but CPOE is uniquely used here. QBs included threw 130+ passes. SD= standard deviation. QB PR QBR PFF DVOA ANY/A EPA/CPOE Avg SD 1 Aaron Rodgers 1 1 4 1 1 1 1.5 1.1 2 Tom Brady 8 2 1 2 5 5 3.8 2.4 3 Joe Burrow 2 12 2 16 2 2 6.0 5.8 4 Matthew Stafford 6 5 11 9 3 6 6.7 2.6 5 Justin Herbert 12 3 3 6 11 9 7.3 3.6 6 Dak Prescott 3 10 8 3 7 14 7.5 3.9 7 Patrick Mahomes 11 6 13 4 10 3 7.8 3.7 8 Kyler Murray 9 8 7 7 12 8 8.5 1.7 9 Kirk Cousins 4 16 5 8 4 15 8.7 5.0 10 Jimmy Garoppolo 10 15 17 5 6 4 9.5 5.0 11 Jameis Winston 7 4 19 10 8 11 9.8 4.7 12 Josh Allen 17 7 6 17 15 10 12.0 4.5 13 Russell Wilson 5 13 20 13 9 17 12.8 4.9 14 Derek Carr 15 14 15 12 13 16 14.2 1.3 15 Mac Jones 16 17 12 15 18 12 15.0 2.3 16 Teddy Bridgewater 13 24 21 11 17 7 15.5 5.8 17 Carson Wentz 14 11 23 18 14 22 17.0 4.4 18 Ryan Tannehill 21 9 9 31 25 13 18.0 8.3 19 Jalen Hurts 24 22 10 19 16 18 18.2 4.5 20 Tua Tagovailoa 20 20 25 20 21 19 20.8 2.0 21 Matt Ryan 19 25 16 24 20 23 21.2 3.1 22 Lamar Jackson 25 19 24 21 22 20 21.8 2.1 23 Jared Goff 18 30 31 22 23 27 25.2 4.6 24 Trevor Siemian 23 32 28 23 19 30 25.8 4.5 25 Daniel Jones 28 27 22 30 24 26 26.2 2.6 26 Mike White 35 18 39 14 31 21 26.3 9.2 27 Taylor Heinicke 27 29 33 25 29 24 27.8 3.0 28 Jacoby Brissett 30 21 14 35 35 33 28.0 7.9 29 Taysom Hill 34 26 18 29 30 34 28.5 5.5 30 Baker Mayfield 29 34 30 26 28 25 28.7 2.9 31 Davis Mills 22 33 36 27 26 32 29.3 4.7 32 Ben Roethlisberger 26 31 37 28 27 29 29.7 3.6 33 Tyler Huntley 33 23 26 32 38 28 30.0 4.9 34 Tyrod Taylor 32 28 35 37 34 31 32.8 2.9 35 Andy Dalton 31 37 27 34 33 36 33.0 3.3 36 Trevor Lawrence 37 35 32 33 32 37 34.3 2.1 37 Justin Fields 36 39 29 36 37 35 35.3 3.1 38 Sam Darnold 38 36 38 38 36 38 37.3 0.9 39 Zach Wilson 39 38 34 39 39 40 38.2 2.0 40 Mike Glennon 40 40 40 40 40 39 39.8 0.4 Tiers 1: Rodgers Tier 2: Brady, Burrow, Herbert, Stafford, Mahomes, Dak Tier 3: Cousins, Winston, Murray, Jimmy G, Josh Allen, Wilson, Carr, Bridgewater, Mac Tier 4: Tannehill, Wentz, Hurts, Tua, Lamar, Matt Ryan, Tier 5- Daniel Jones, Mike White, Goff. Siemian, Heinicke, Taysom, Mayfield, Brissett, Mills, Roethlisberger, Huntley Tier 6- Dalton, Tyrod, Lawrence, Fields, Darnold, Wilson, Glennon QBRank2021.xlsx Edited January 12, 2022 by RandyMossIsBoss 13 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigTrav Posted October 6, 2021 Share Posted October 6, 2021 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYRaider Posted October 6, 2021 Share Posted October 6, 2021 1. Patrick Mahomes 2. Josh Allen 3. Kyler Murray 4. Matt Stafford 5. Tom Brady 6. Aaron Rodgers 7. Dak Prescott 8. Justin Herbert 9. Russell Wilson 10. Lamar Jackson Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matts4313 Posted October 6, 2021 Share Posted October 6, 2021 This is the best way to evaluate QBs imo. @RandyMossIsBoss should publish these as a regular thing on twitter/reddit/etc. Id follow him. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blackstar12 Posted October 6, 2021 Share Posted October 6, 2021 Wentz had no business playing at Tennessee. He looked more immobile than even Rivers lol. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iknowcool Posted October 6, 2021 Share Posted October 6, 2021 Heinicke is so much fun to watch. I'm rooting for him. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tk3 Posted October 6, 2021 Share Posted October 6, 2021 Good stuff Obviously has the detriment of small sample size so early in the year, but will be very interesting to track over the course of the season Have you considered a standard deviation column? Not sure how much it matters, but I'd argue that Kyler's top rankings being consistent across all criteria is more impressive than some other highly rated players who have big variances. PFF seems to be the biggest outlier (which I don't think its a problem, just notable) I can't recall if I've watched a single Tannehill snap this season - but I'm curious what PFF sees in him that isn't showing up in these other advanced metrics. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
minutemancl Posted October 6, 2021 Share Posted October 6, 2021 1 minute ago, Tk3 said: Good stuff Obviously has the detriment of small sample size so early in the year, but will be very interesting to track over the course of the season Have you considered a standard deviation column? Not sure how much it matters, but I'd argue that Kyler's top rankings being consistent across all criteria is more impressive than some other highly rated players who have big variances. PFF seems to be the biggest outlier (which I don't think its a problem, just notable) I can't recall if I've watched a single Tannehill snap this season - but I'm curious what PFF sees in him that isn't showing up in these other advanced metrics. He should not be ranked 2nd, but he is getting probably the least amount of help from his offense in the passing game that I've seen in a while. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Awsi Dooger Posted October 7, 2021 Share Posted October 7, 2021 A lot of the obvious stuff is there, like Daniel Jones way up and Aaron Rodgers way down. I mentioned in the stats thread a couple of weeks ago that Jones suddenly was playing at 7.5 YPA level instead of his standard 6.6 range. Rodgers, on the other hand, is back to his lazy level from 2014 through 2019. He escaped that malaise only when Jordan Love was drafted...then somehow had the ignorance and audacity to complain about the best thing to happen to him in years. Ryan Tannehill always has certain people seeing things that aren't there. Anything with the greatest subjective input will deviate most from reality. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Apparition Posted October 7, 2021 Share Posted October 7, 2021 I know that these ratings are often subjective and by no means tell the whole story, but holy hell, there can't be a person in the Steelers organization that doesn't feel like crying every time they consider how much money they're paying Roethlisberger this year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JAF-N72EX Posted October 7, 2021 Share Posted October 7, 2021 I know I may be alone on this, but outside of maybe 5 QB's I feel like the consistency of QB play has been on a down spiral for a couple of years now. But its still early in the season too so.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYRaider Posted October 7, 2021 Share Posted October 7, 2021 7 hours ago, Awsi Dooger said: A lot of the obvious stuff is there, like Daniel Jones way up and Aaron Rodgers way down. I mentioned in the stats thread a couple of weeks ago that Jones suddenly was playing at 7.5 YPA level instead of his standard 6.6 range. Rodgers, on the other hand, is back to his lazy level from 2014 through 2019. He escaped that malaise only when Jordan Love was drafted...then somehow had the ignorance and audacity to complain about the best thing to happen to him in years. Ryan Tannehill always has certain people seeing things that aren't there. Anything with the greatest subjective input will deviate most from reality. I've watched a few Giants games this year and was shocked by how mobile DJ is, dude has wheels. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bearerofnews Posted October 13, 2021 Share Posted October 13, 2021 Upping for the update.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ryan_W Posted October 13, 2021 Share Posted October 13, 2021 so much cement Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AFlaccoSeagulls Posted October 13, 2021 Share Posted October 13, 2021 So, uh, are we going to talk about Tannehill and PFF or nah? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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