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What's Mac Jones' ceiling?


notthatbluestuff

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If Belichick "didn't trust Mac", why would he cut Cam and start Mac day one, something Belichick almost NEVER does with rookies?

If Belichick doesn't trust you, he'll either keep you on the bench or get rid of you entirely.

Belichick has been conservative with Mac because he's a rookie that is inevitably going to be compared to the greatest player in the history of this sport. That is a LOT of pressure to put on someone who's only 23.

Edited by biggie.
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24 minutes ago, biggie. said:

If Belichick "didn't trust Mac", why would he cut Cam and start Mac day one, something Belichick almost NEVER does with rookies?

Put it this way, Josh Allen who has one of the strongest arms in the league player in that same wind and only started throwing late when his team was running out of time, missed 50% of his passes, his lone TD was a gimme after a turnover. He averaged a season. low 4.8 yards per attempt, only 145 yards, and had multiple drops because the wind had balls sailing or wobbling in the air and his receivers timing were getting thrown off. And he’s probably one of the best QB’s to pass in that situation because he has one of if not the physically most powerful arm in the league. 
 

Mac never was in a position like Allen where his team needed to pass. 

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10 hours ago, notthatbluestuff said:

Except for that critical moment where they opted for a 50-yard FG instead of letting Mac pass it on 4th down late on. A FG that, even had it gone in, would still have given the ball back to Tom Brady with more than a minute left on the clock, only needing to get into FG range to win the game. 

Does LeFleur not trust Rodgers because of one play? 

It was a game decision. The offense wasn’t playing at that high a level and the defense was limiting the Buccaneers pretty effectively. Brady threw the ball 40+ times and was completing like 50% of his passes, 269 yards, and no TDs. They weren’t moving the ball up and down with ease. Defense was showing up, so trust your defense.

Not even saying that Mac has full-go in this offense and is walking around like some established QB in Bill’s locker room. But some of y’all are really overreacting.

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Mac is averaging 30 ATT/G on the season, which is really only behind Lawrence among rookies - and Lawrence's is that high because the Jaguars are always behind. He's also second behind Lawrence in intended air yards among rookies, and first among rookies in completed air yards. He also has the 2nd highest yards/attempt among rookies in the last five years, behind Mayfield. Taking the Bills game as any kind of indicator of how much the team trusts or doesn't trust Mac is kind of silly, especially seeing as he's had 30+ attempts in 8 of his 13 starts.

As for his ceiling? Who knows. Rookie seasons haven't shown to be much of an indicator of career success. He's off to a good start, though. Yay!

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30 minutes ago, childofpudding said:

Mac is averaging 30 ATT/G on the season, which is really only behind Lawrence among rookies - and Lawrence's is that high because the Jaguars are always behind. He's also second behind Lawrence in intended air yards among rookies, and first among rookies in completed air yards. He also has the 2nd highest yards/attempt among rookies in the last five years, behind Mayfield. Taking the Bills game as any kind of indicator of how much the team trusts or doesn't trust Mac is kind of silly, especially seeing as he's had 30+ attempts in 8 of his 13 starts.

As for his ceiling? Who knows. Rookie seasons haven't shown to be much of an indicator of career success. He's off to a good start, though. Yay!

Bulk stats are kind of a duh considering he's the only other rookie to start every game. When looking at his average, he's middle of the pack.

http://pfref.com/pi/share/TInyG

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4 hours ago, Yin-Yang said:

Does LeFleur not trust Rodgers because of one play? 

It was a game decision. The offense wasn’t playing at that high a level and the defense was limiting the Buccaneers pretty effectively. Brady threw the ball 40+ times and was completing like 50% of his passes, 269 yards, and no TDs. They weren’t moving the ball up and down with ease. Defense was showing up, so trust your defense.

Not even saying that Mac has full-go in this offense and is walking around like some established QB in Bill’s locker room. But some of y’all are really overreacting.

I didn’t say Belichick doesn’t trust Mac. I said he didn’t trust Mac in that particular example. It was the wrong decision no matter the result. 

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8 minutes ago, notthatbluestuff said:

I didn’t say Belichick doesn’t trust Mac. I said he didn’t trust Mac in that particular example. It was the wrong decision no matter the result. 

Based on?

Based on the way the game was going, it seemed to be the smart decision. The offense wasn’t hitting on all cylinders. The defense was playing well. Brady wasn’t the usual Brady. Play to your strength - the defense.

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7 hours ago, NJerseypaint said:

Bulk stats are kind of a duh considering he's the only other rookie to start every game. When looking at his average, he's middle of the pack.

http://pfref.com/pi/share/TInyG

Well I did cite yds/att, and there's the argument that you might not want to make average comparisons anyway to someone like Wilson or Fields because their sample size is too low, but you make a good point on CAY and IAY. That said, the fact that he has started every game as a rookie itself helps support the argument that the coaches trust him.

Do you subscribe to Stathead? I hate that they went behind a paywall, although I understand why they did, and haven't been willing to pay yet.

Edited by childofpudding
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3 hours ago, childofpudding said:

Well I did cite yds/att, and there's the argument that you might not want to make average comparisons anyway to someone like Wilson or Fields because their sample size is too low, but you make a good point on CAY and IAY. That said, the fact that he has started every game as a rookie itself helps support the argument that the coaches trust him.

Do you subscribe to Stathead? I hate that they went behind a paywall, although I understand why they did, and haven't been willing to pay yet.

I agree that the sample size is too small for guys like Wilson and Fields is too small - and I'd expect those numbers to fall as they stop trying to play hero ball. Also, I am definitely in the BB trusts Mac camp. I think he's doing exactly his job and that is the Patriot Way. But I am not sold that he's going to be the franchise guy. To me, it depends on how long BB is around and how long they can field a top 5 defense.

 

And nah, I depend on PFR for everything, which is usually more than suitable.

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2 hours ago, jofos said:

Remember the time when Mac threw 42 passes and the Patriots ran 8 times for -1 yards...

Do you mean when they scored 17 at home in good weather conditions in a loss?

He had 51 passes at home the week before that. They scored 13 in another loss.

Edited by SkippyX
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1 hour ago, SkippyX said:

Do you mean when they scored 17 at home in good weather conditions in a loss?

The weather conditions were not good in that game. It was pretty moist throughout.

Also, this logic is goofy. Teams throw more often when they're playing from behind. That's just a fact. 

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30 minutes ago, Apparition said:

The weather conditions were not good in that game. It was pretty moist throughout.

Also, this logic is goofy. Teams throw more often when they're playing from behind. That's just a fact. 

So all teams playing from behind can't score in the 20s is what you call good logic?

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30 minutes ago, SkippyX said:

So all teams playing from behind can't score in the 20s is what you call good logic?

If you're playing from behind, chances are you've had difficulty scoring, yeah. 

Having a drive killed at your opponents' 28 yard line on a fumble by a 4th-string RB isn't gonna do much for your efficiency, either.

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