What's Mac Jones' ceiling?

[SkippyX]

He's been far better than expectations. (as a rookie)

People who are LOL'ing about those who strong opinions that he should not be a top 3 pick have a weird take on this.

IMO He'd be bad on the Jets or Jags and he'd be a mess or a backup in SF. (this year)

NE is perfect for him and he is doing well (for a rookie)

• He's still the 14th rated and 17th ANY/A QB in a 32 team league.
• He's 15th in yards per game and 21st in TD%
• He's been excellent in INT% 15th (for a rookie) and sack % 17th (5.9 is also very good for a rookie)
• 12th in yards per attempt is very good for a rookie.

 

I thought his ceiling may have been lower than it has been. That does not give him Matt Ryan's career (MVP in 2016) because he's leading the 7/14 offense.

• Matt Ryan is 13th in regular season passer rating and 3rd in the playoffs.
• He's 8th in career passing yards, 6th in passing yards per game, and 19th in career TDs  (He's still just 36)
• Projecting Jones as another Matt Ryan is a bit like giving him a gold jacket after 12 games.

 

My reaction to Jones at 3 was "Hell No!" (fair?) The reaction to Jones at 15 and the Patriots was. "Its a bit high but its Saban to BB and he might be a fit in a very good situation" (also fair?). There is really nothing to LOL about in that.

We were all talking about draft prospects. Here is an example:

Nick Foles won a Super Bowl and had a 28 TD 2 pick season. He still should not have been taken by Philly in round 1 instead of Fletcher Cox.

• The periods of success did not prove he should have been a 1st round QB

 

If Mac Jones' super power is that he is playing like a 3rd year guy as a rookie but his physical limitations will always be his limitations then he won't be all that special.

He could still be a decent to good starting QB with some very good years.

If his super power is that he is so smart and has such a great feel for the game and his teammates that he can elevate beyond his physical abilities then he could be great.

I don't know how you can tell the difference in 1 or 2 years.

 

 

Josh Allen was nowhere near as polished as a rookie (understatement) but he had Josh Allen 2020 in part because he has all the tools.

Jones never will have all those tools so it will be an uphill battle to do what those other guys can do.

Again, this is projecting and nitpicking decent, good, and elite. He's already proved there is a place for him as a starter in the league and I was not sure he would be.

 

Any use of the word Brady when talking about Jones is so insanely unfair to him that it just should not be done.

Brady was a will and training and study and skill and dedication without freak ability guy but he's also the best ever. You can't just say "Yeah, Jones is that too."

[biggie.]

1 minute ago, JAF-N72EX said:

This isn't relevant to the topic. 

It's completely relevant. As Bill Parcells said: you are what your record says you are. No amount of pointless statistics changes the fact that Philly are a below average team.

[JAF-N72EX]

2 minutes ago, Forge said:

I actually like the idea of the chart (we talked about it a bit in the 49er form), but I think it needs to be a bigger composite with more relevant pieces of data. And the one piece that we didn't like at all was the "open rate". If you need something to quantify the receivers, I'm not sure what else you can use outside of drops. Separation / Open Rates are too influenced by other factors (such as a QB's tendencies). 

I don't really care the chart either (simply because it uses PFF data and my hatred runs deep there) but I like the concept of it. But to your point, an 'open WR' can be so subjective too, depending on who and how it's being charted, which is where I would prefer them to use NGS separation data instead and set a baseline and go from there.  

[JAF-N72EX]

3 minutes ago, biggie. said:

It's completely relevant. As Bill Parcells said: you are what your record says you are. No amount of pointless statistics changes the fact that Philly are a below average team.

We're talking about the chart, QBs, and supporting casts. Not team records, no?

[SkippyX]

LMAO at that stupid and useless help index. 🤡 💩

I have watched the Eagles drop anywhere from 5 to 8 TDs thrown from Hurts (maybe some of them were penalties calling back scores)

Have you watched Jalen Reagor meet a football?

 

It felt like the entire Cowboys game had the Eagles starting inside their own 10 yard line.

He went up and down the field vs KC all day and I'm not sure the Eagles D was actually on the field vs Mahomes.

Was all this help vs the Raiders in the form of some kind of psychic messaging? It sure wasn't on the field.

They did hold Herbert to 370 combined with 3 TDs and a 123 rating. Did that help?

I repressed the memories from the 49ers game but there was some kind of huge play called back on a toe just out of bounds or something like that.

• Hurts also outran the rest of the team.

 

Hurts has run for his life and made a bunch of plays like that ankle breaker vs New Orleans.

He's a limited accuracy guy (with a couple really bad games) but he's not overwhelmed with help. 

He's leading pretty much every rushing category on the team.

[Dr A W Niloc]

As long as the Patriots continue to provide the excellent coaching and blocking, the fine defense, and the average or better receiving that we've come to expect from them Mac Jones won't have a ceiling.

[PatriotsWin!]

Joe Montana. Only Mac is bigger, more athletic, and has a bigger arm.

[Forge]

13 minutes ago, Dr A W Niloc said:

As long as the Patriots continue to provide the excellent coaching and blocking, the fine defense, and the average or better receiving that we've come to expect from them Mac Jones won't have a ceiling.

This sounds like what some Rams fans said about Goff lol. 

I'm not sure that this comes off as intended. At least it didn't to me

[Dr A W Niloc]

6 minutes ago, Forge said:

This sounds like what some Rams fans said about Goff lol. 

I'm not sure that this comes off as intended. At least it didn't to me

Fans of another NFC-West team, the 49ers, can make the case that a QB can have all these things--coaching, blocking, defense, receiving--and still fail, as Goff did with the Rams after some initial success. 

FWIW, those QBs are general practitioners, like Trevor Lawrence, who might feel confined in similar circumstances.  Mac Jones is a specialist with a more focused skill set.  He does one thing (i.e. hitting targets in full flight with touch) and he does it better than anyone else.

[NeptunePenguins]

He has elite potential in my opinion. It is difficult to sort of project how good a player like him can be, since like someone else said earlier, projecting the mental aspect of a QB's game is just very difficult. If he somehow does have that Manning/Brady drive and ends up processing the game like those two then he will likely be a Hall of Famer. If he does so decently, but not quite that elite level he could have a solid near but not quite Hall of Fame career like say Matt Ryan. If he doesn't really improve much then he will be a good QB, but not anyone that is gonna be a gamebreaker, but also not someone you would want to replace. 

[ronjon1990]

1 hour ago, Xenos said:

Carson Palmer at least had an elite arm. Ryan’s a good comparison though. Maybe Philip Rivers as well.

Indeed he did. 

I meant more in terms of results though. Someone who isn't quite a "star", but is ultimately regarded as someone who could've won a Superbowl (if he never does). I always felt like Palmer was stuck in generally crummy situations until his last couple years in Arizona but somehow was always hovering around top 10 status. 

I don't think Mac will reach the statistical highs of a Matt Ryan or Philip Rivers or gets anywhere near top 5 status as they both did at times. But he'll probably be regarded as one of the Hall of Very Good QBs by the time he hangs em up. 

[LoFi]

7 hours ago, Forge said:

This sounds like what some Rams fans said about Goff lol. 

I'm not sure that this comes off as intended. At least it didn't to me

Goff had a disastrous rookie season. It wasn't until McVey came around that he started having success. The thing that always stuck out to me about Goff is the fact that he never looked good under pressure. He seemed to fold at every turn when there was pressure put on him, especially in his later years with the Rams. 

From what I've seen as Mac Jones he is fundamentally a much different player. The first thing that jumps out at me is how poised he is for a rookie. He'll stand tall in the pocket with guys bearing down on him and he won't blink. He'll know he's going to take a huge hit and he'll still throw a perfectly placed ball as he's taking that hit. The pressure doesn't seem to phase him. His arm strength is also is not terrible like many people were claiming. No, he's not Josh Allen, but his arm talent is Chad Pennington levels either. Mac Jones has enough arm strength. 

I think the Patriots can still get quite a bit of performance out of Mac Jones. He's still unrefined as a player. Some plays he'll look like a seasoned veteran and other he will look like the rookie that he is. If he can continue to refine his game I think he can be a very successful QB in the NFL, if not one of the best. I think at the very least he can be a solid game manager QB that'll stick around in the NFL for years barring some kind of injury. 

[jrry32]

7 hours ago, Forge said:

This sounds like what some Rams fans said about Goff lol. 

I'm not sure that this comes off as intended. At least it didn't to me

And Goff was a more physically gifted dude. The challenge in this league is how you respond once they have the book on you.

[SBLIII]

who knows as he is a rookie really. 

 

I hope he gets a serious WR1 soon though. Seen what a difference that makes see Josh Allen. Working with a bunch of WR3s is not optimal.

[Apparition]

Drew Brees. I think they're similar in terms of accuracy, processing ability and composure. How much success that translates into is directly proportional to the size of the chip on his shoulder. 

Edited December 5, 2021 by Apparition