Forge Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 Just now, LeotheLion said: For the analytic folks, you'd agree that Staley screwed up then when it was 20-13 by kicking the PAT instead of going for 2, right? He could have made it a 2 score game. I actually think that is something the NFL hasn't caught up with yet, but I believe it gives you roughly a 3% better chance at winning, so yes, there is merit that you should go for it there. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thelonebillsfan Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 (edited) Like the Chiefs literally did the exact same analytical decision making as the Chargers this entire game lmao, including a 4th and 1 inside the RZ when a FG gave them the lead! Edited December 17, 2021 by Thelonebillsfan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thelonebillsfan Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 Just now, Forge said: I actually think that is something the NFL hasn't caught up with yet, but I believe it gives you roughly a 3% better chance at winning, so yes, there is merit that you should go for it there. I've seen a few teams go for it late-ish in the game to go up 9. It's not widespread yet, but it is starting to happen. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SkippyX Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 2 minutes ago, LeotheLion said: For the analytic folks, you'd agree that Staley screwed up then when it was 20-13 by kicking the PAT instead of going for 2, right? He could have made it a 2 score game. No, because the 2-point conversion is a coin flip. An 8 point lead is a 2 score lead. They have to score the TD and then score another TD on the next play from the 2. Its better to let the other team chase the 2 point conversion. This is different if you are up by 5 or 1 after scoring the 6. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JAF-N72EX Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 28 minutes ago, KingOfNewYork said: Some of y’all still think he’s prime Kelce. Dude shouldn’t be doing that to them lol. I mean....here are his numbers thru the first 14 games of each season of his career. (I had to add tonights game to 2021 because PFR is not updated yet for this game) 13 targets, 10 catches, 191 yards, 2TDs https://stathead.com/tiny/qlWCj 2021: 122 targets, 83 catches, 1066 yards, 7TDs 2020: 132 targets, 98 catches, 1318 yards, 10TDs 2019: 122 targets, 86 catches, 1131 yards, 4TDs 2018: 132 targets, 93 catches, 1220 yards, 10TDs 2017: 114 targets, 79 catches, 991 yards, 7TDs 2016: 104 targets, 73 catches, 957 yards, 3TDs 2015: 93 targets, 65 catches, 822 yards, 4TDs, Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeotheLion Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 Just now, Forge said: I actually think that is something the NFL hasn't caught up with yet, but I believe it gives you roughly a 3% better chance at winning, so yes, there is merit that you should go for it there. Which is a major flaw with Staley tonight. The whole point of an analytics approach is you win in the long run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SkippyX Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 Built into the math on going for 4th down is the fact that a TD > 2 FGs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mse326 Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 4 minutes ago, LeotheLion said: For the analytic folks, you'd agree that Staley screwed up then when it was 20-13 by kicking the PAT instead of going for 2, right? He could have made it a 2 score game. It depends on what you think your chances of success are and what you think their chances at a 2 pt are. I would have gone for 2, but taking the PAT is justifiable. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
onejayhawk Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 1 minute ago, LeotheLion said: Which is a major flaw with Staley tonight. The whole point of an analytics approach is you win in the long run. The problem with going all analytics is that you can screw up you momentum. Sometimes you need points, even if it's just three of them. Goose eggs are hard on your own defense. J 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeotheLion Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 (edited) 2 minutes ago, mse326 said: It depends on what you think your chances of success are and what you think their chances at a 2 pt are. I would have gone for 2, but taking the PAT is justifiable. I just don't understand how Staley thinks 4th and 5 is justifiable but not a 2 pointer there... Especially if the logic is we are playing the Chiefs. Put it in Herbert's hand and not Mahomes if you want to be aggressive. Edited December 17, 2021 by LeotheLion Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thelonebillsfan Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 Just now, LeotheLion said: I just don't understand how you think 4th and 5 is justifiable but not a 2 pointer there... Especially if the logic is we are playing the Chiefs. Put it in Herbert's hand and not Mahomes if you want to be aggressive. He literally said he would go for 2. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeotheLion Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 Just now, onejayhawk said: The problem with going all analytics is that you can screw up you momentum. Sometimes you need points, even if it's just three of them. Goose eggs are hard on your own defense. J I agree. I hated what Staley did tonight lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malfatron Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 5 minutes ago, Thelonebillsfan said: Like the Chiefs literally did the exact same analytical decision making as the Chargers this entire game lmao, including a 4th and 1 inside the RZ when a FG gave them the lead! WElL ThEy wErE RiGhT To gO FoR It bEkAuSe oNlY ThE OuTkOmE MaTtErS!! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeotheLion Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 Just now, Thelonebillsfan said: He literally said he would go for 2. I'm talking about Staley... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thelonebillsfan Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 None of you are ready for when a team REALLY goes all in on being the Oakland A's of Football rather than making like, 5-10 analytics based playcalls a game lol. This is baby stuff. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.