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BDL Discussion Thread 2022


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Just for reference the following players have received the franchise tag:

WR Davante Adams
WR Chris Godwin
TE David Njoku
TE Mike Gesicki
TE Dalton Shultz
OT Cam Robinson
OT Orlando Brown
S Jessie Bates

 
Position Franchise tag figure
Quarterback $29.703 million
Running back $9.570 million
Wide receiver $18.419 million
Tight end $10.931 million
Offensive linemen $16.662 million
Defensive end $17.859 million
Defensive tackle $17.396 million
Linebacker $18.702 million
Cornerback $17.287 million
Safety $12.911 million
Kicker/punter $5.220 million
Edited by wwhickok
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9 minutes ago, MD4L said:

Landry wasn’t either. Surprised the Titans let him get this close to FA.

It's listed in the Article on NFL, I listed all the players listed within that that were apparently tagged.

However, I do think you're right, Jackson DID NOT receive the tag.

Edited by wwhickok
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4 hours ago, MWil23 said:

Which isn't unfounded. T.O. was a 3rd Rounder, A.J. Brown was a 2nd rounder, and Metcalf is more physically talented from a testing standpoint.

I like the talent pool at the WR position in this draft, but it also depends upon what your team and needs are IRL. If you NEED a big bodied Red Zone threat and pure outside guy, Burks is probably the best at that, so if you're a team like the Rams (assuming they had a first rounder), that would be ideal. He's worth probably 8+ Red Zone TD a year while it gives you creativity to use Kupp, and with his size, he's your "Robert Woods insert blocking" guy.

From a scheme standpoint, he'd do well with the Chargers if/when they lose Mike Williams too.

He has value in the right system with the right pieces around him.

So I stumbled upon this article about Burks that helps summarize some of my concerns with actual concrete data:

https://jetsxfactor.com/2022/03/07/ny-jets-draft-treylon-burks-combine-results/

Quote

Burks’ long speed was not the issue that made his combine performance so concerning. It was his explosiveness and short-area quickness.

In the vertical jump, Burks leaped 33 inches, a mark that ranks at the 20th percentile all-time among wide receivers.

In the three-cone drill, Burks recorded a time of 7.28 seconds, which ranks at the 8th percentile all-time among wide receivers.

The combination of those two numbers puts Burks in extremely ominous company.

According to Pro Football Reference, there have been 39 wide receivers in combine history to post a vertical jump of 34 inches or less and a three-cone time of 7.25 seconds or more.

Of those, only two (Anquan Boldin and Chad Johnson) have gone on to enjoy successful careers, making up 5% of the sample size. The other 37 players have combined for one 1,000-yard season. To put into perspective how poor the group is outside of Boldin and Johnson, its most productive player is first-round bust Kelvin Benjamin.

Most players who perform at such a lackluster level in both the vertical jump and three-cone are not even considered draftable. Of the 39 players who met the aforementioned criteria, just 13 were drafted. And of the ones that were drafted, only one was taken in the first round (Benjamin).

Metcalf infamously posted a brutal time of 7.38 seconds (3rd percentile among WR) at the 2019 combine, instantly causing many evaluators to sour on him. He ended up slipping into the second round.

However, Metcalf lit up the combine in most of the other drills. He ran a 4.33 in the forty at 228 pounds (133.3 speed score, 100th percentile), registered a 40.5-inch vertical (93rd percentile), and posted a 134-inch broad jump (97th percentile).

The three-cone is the real killer for Burks here, far more so than the vertical. Wide receivers who struggle in that drill have incredibly low odds of succeeding in the NFL, regardless of how they perform in other drills.

When we take out the vertical jump filter and simply look at the 77 wide receivers who have run a three-cone time of 7.25 or higher, there are still only four (5%) who have gone on to become successful: Boldin, Johnson, Metcalf, and new addition to the group Steve Smith, who had a 38.5-inch vertical. Benjamin remains the only other player in the group with a 1,000-yard season even after taking out the vertical jump filter to expand the data sample.

A lot of players in that 77-player bunch had great vertical jumps, great 40 times, great broad jumps, all of the above, or some combination of those things, but no matter what else a wide receiver does, history tells us that a bad three-cone time is a highly difficult weakness to overcome.

Plenty of wide receivers have overcome a poor vertical jump to become successful. Antonio Brown (33.5 inches), Robert Woods (33.5), Marvin Jones (33), Amari Cooper (33), Cooper Kupp (31), Calvin Ridley (31), Jordy Nelson (31), and Jarvis Landry (28.5) are just the tip of the iceberg. But here’s the thing – every single one of those players had a sub-7.15 time in the three-cone. Most were under the 7.00 mark.

Couple up a poor three-cone and a bad vertical jump, and history says your odds of succeeding are minimal.

Could Burks beat the odds? Sure, everyone has a chance to defy the odds - we've just witnessed the conclusion of the greatest 6th round story ever - but the odds are stacked against him.

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New Mock

1.1 Cancun- Kyle Hamilton S ND
1.2 Anchorage- Jordan Davis INT UGA
1.3 Gotham- Sauce Gardner CB Cincinnati 
1.4 Antarctica- Kayvon Thibodeaux Edge Oregon
1.5 Rome- Aidan Hutchinson Edge UM
1.6 Lancaster- Evan Neal OT Bama
1.7 Anchorage- Ikem Ekwonu OT NC State
1.8 Cuba- Travon Walker Edge UGA
1.9 Anchorage- Jermaine Johnson ll Edge FSU
1.10 IC- Charles Cross OT Miss State
1.11 Raleigh- George Karlaftis Edge Purdue
1.12 Seoul- Treylon Burks WR Arkansas
1.13 Camden- Derek Stingley Jr CB LSU
1.14 Camden- David Ojabo Edge UM
1.15 Seoul- Daxton Hill S UM
1.16 Berlin- Drake London WR USC

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